AI泡沫担忧致全球股市抛售，IMF下调法国增长预期

[music] Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Blueberg Daybure podcast. Good morning. It's Tuesday [music] the 13th of October. I'm Caroline Hepka in London. Coming up today, AI stocks plunge as trillions in global investment raises fears the boom could carry echoes of 2008. The IMF slashes French growth and forecasts only modest gains for Germany and the UK next year. Plus, Hungary's new leader begins his biggest challenge, joining the euro.

We have a special report. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. A global stock route is deepening as concerns mount over artificial intelligence bets. South Korea's Cosby plunged as much as 7% with SK Highix and Samsung both falling about 9%. The losses followed a Wall Street selloff as concerns about Chinese competition and stretched AI valuations has intensified. Bloomberg's Danny Burgerer points out that even some of the industry's biggest names are questioning the AI boom.

Broadcom CEO Hawk 10 is likening the AI trade to a casino and questioning the economics of money losing AI labs. Tan says that a lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in and set very extreme expectations almost to find out that they are in a casino. Danny Burger there on the comments from Broadcom CEO Hawk Tan which were made at an event in Singapore. Last week, billionaire Ray Dalio also warned that AI is a classic bubble nearing a bursting point.

The sell-off in AI stocks is reviving a much bigger question. Whether the boom is creating risks reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, Bloomberg Economics says that a global pool of excess savings is increasingly flowing into US tech stocks and the $9 trillion AI buildout. Now, foreigner investors have about $4.9 trillion exposed to US listed shares in industries that are at the heart of the AI boom. Boomberg economics's chief economist Tom Olik says that one important difference though from 2008 is who controls the money flowing through global markets.

On the surplus side, it's not very cautious, very riskaverse central banks moving the money. It's private investors who are much more nimble, much more focused on returns. And on the companies which are taking the investment, well, it's not the safe, secure US treasury market anymore. It's the AI hyperscalers. And if they deliver, well, everyone's going to be better off and the Asian investors are going to get paid. But if there's a moment where the market says, you know what, we thought the profits from AI were going to be here and they're not.

We're shifting from bulls to bears. Well, it's going to be a challenging moment.

Well, there's an if there, isn't there? Tom Orle, though, also points out that a sharp AI downturn could spill across other assets if investors are forced to sell government bonds in order to cover losses elsewhere. US bank stocks are hovering in correction territory as Wall Street's biggest lenders begin reporting earnings today. JP Morgan, Cityroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo all report before US markets open.

The KBW Bank index has fallen about 12% since August as Treasury yields have surged and the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates. McCrae Sykes of Gabelli Equity Trust says that despite rate and credit risks, he still expects strong results.

The background for earnings growth for these major companies is is good. You have nominal growth, low unemployment, good credit, and then the wealth effect, as we know, you know, household wealth is up almost 20 trillion as of June. So, a lot of these things and then we just got a a report on September spending in terms of the consumer, which is 70% of the overall economy, was very strong there, too. So, you know, despite some of the challenges in terms of worries about the outlook, you know, we still see a pretty good environment for owning the banks.

McCrae Sykes there. Today's earnings will be followed then on Wednesday by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. The IMF is downgrading France's growth outlook even as it says that the global economy will get an AI boost. The fund expects France to grow by 0.4% this year against global growth of 3.1%. BMP Parabut's chief economist Matias E Logos says that there are asterisks to that prediction. How long can this resilience last in the face of the strongish headwinds uh of the energy shock and of the uh very strong um rise in interest rates which again we're seeing across the world.

So these are strong tailwinds and so I think this is going to test the resilience that we've seen so far. That was BMP's Isabel Mateos Elago speaking there. The high energy prices that she noted have weighed on Europe. Germany's expected to grow by 1.1% next year. Meanwhile, UK growth is forecast to edge down to 1.2% as energy prices and high interest rates weigh on consumption. French students are set to take to the streets again today as protests over education enter a third week.

More than 250,000 people joined demonstrations last Tuesday with students demanding action on understaffing and overcrowding. However, the French government has little scope to spend more as parliament begins debating plans to rein in France's fiscal deficit. Bloomberg economics says that India's expanding trade deals could add about $140 billion to its economy by 2035. The outlook comes as Bloomberg's new economy forum gets underway in New Delhi focused on India's economic ambitions and investment plans.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been speaking to the forum on India's role in a changing global order with AI and technology at its heart. Now his words are spoken by a female translator. The real question is not who has the power. The real question is how is this power being used?

Will technology only help a few people to progress or will it create new opportunities for millions of people?

Nendra Modi speaking via a translator. to Ab Bloomberg's new economy forum in New Delhi today. America is under pressure, meanwhile to step up as Saudi Arabia struggles in its battle against the Houthies in Yemen. Bloomberg understands that Riyad is now desperately looking to the US and other allies for support. Here is Bloomberg's national security editor, Ian Marlo.

It's getting really bad and I think this is uh for Saudi in particular, this is the worst we've seen throughout the whole Iran war in terms of the fallout. And now we have a proxy group in Yemen. And I think we're seeing something that um could push the US to potentially get um you know increasingly bogged down.

Bloom's national security editor Ian Marlo there. The conflict risks further pressure on oil prices, but the Trump administration is wary of getting drawn into another conflict in the region ahead of the US midterm elections. The UK's prime minister says that Iran's IRGC was almost certainly responsible for an alleged terror plot at a British air base used by the US. Andy Bernham was speaking in parliament for the first time since the incident at RAF Fairford last month.

We will not tolerate these threats on our soil. We will crack down on Iran's use of criminal networks using our full range of powers to target them and their funding streams. and we will bring further sanctions to restrict the capacity of Iran and the IRGC to do us harm.

That was the UK Prime Minister Andy Bernham. The foreign secretary Ed Milliband summoned the Iranian ambassador who rejected the claims. More than two dozen UK allies, including the US, released a joint statement condemning Iran's attacks and hybrid actions. German police have detained two Turkish citizens suspected of setting fire to a stalling facility near Warsaw last month. Poland says that it has requested their extradition and has no doubt that Russia was behind the arson attack.

In a social media post, Prime Minister Donald Tusk called it another act of hybrid warfare. It follows a spate of recent incidents which Poland's foreign minister described as just below the threshold of invasi