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Bloomberg:四大科技巨头CapEx达7500亿美元,数据中心成本全面飙升

The Staggering Costs of a Single Data Center, From Land to Chips

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拆解了AI基建的真实成本结构与供应链瓶颈,量化了科技巨头的资本开支规模,对判断硬件产业链景气度极具参考价值。

All right. We want to get to one of the most read stories on the Bloomberg terminal today. It is about the staring costs of a single eye data center, from steel, cement to chips and copper to land engineering power and more. There's a lot that goes into the cost of those data centers. And increasingly, all of those things cost a lot more than they used to. Okay. But given how expensive everything is, when you add it all up, it's actually not that difficult to see how meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet are spending a whopping $750 billion on CapEx alone.

好的。我们今天要关注彭博终端上阅读量最高的报道之一。它聚焦于单个数据中心从钢材、水泥到芯片和铜,再到土地工程电力等方面的起始成本。数据中心的成本构成非常复杂。而且,如今这些项目的成本普遍比过去高得多。好吧。但考虑到各项开支如此高昂,加总之后,其实不难理解为何 Meta、亚马逊、微软和 Alphabet 仅资本支出(CapEx)就高达 7500 亿美元。

No, that's at least when you scroll through this story. Oh, I know right? Yeah. You get you get it. And I keep thinking about Mandy's story in research about the spend next year about 1.7 trillion. And I see this number and you realize how much is really, um, because of these four companies. Big. Well Indian as the byline with an assist from Ian King. Linden is Bloomberg News managing editor of technology. She used to be out here in New York.

不,至少当你浏览这篇报道时会这么想。哦,真的吗?是啊。你懂的。我不断想起曼迪在研究文章中提到的明年约 1.7 万亿美元的支出。看到这个数字,你就会意识到其中有多少是由这四家公司驱动的。规模巨大。本文作者为林登,伊恩·金协助撰稿。林登是彭博新闻社技术领域的管理编辑,她此前曾在纽约工作。

Now she's out there in California. Ian King is Bloomberg News U.S. semiconductor reporter. They both joined us from San Francisco. Lynn, I just love how you opened this story. Contextualizing just how big a number $750 billion is. Can you just lay it out for us? Uh, well, first of all, thanks for having me. I missed you all out there in New York. I'm sorry. I have to tell in by zoom these days. Um, I felt like that 750 billion needed a lot of context.

现在她在加州。伊恩·金是彭博新闻社美国半导体记者。他们两人均从旧金山连线参与节目。林登,我非常喜欢你开篇对这篇报道的处理方式,将 7500 亿美元这个庞大的数字置于具体语境中加以阐释。你能否为我们详细拆解一下?嗯,首先,感谢邀请。我很想念在纽约的各位。抱歉,如今我只能通过 Zoom 连线了。我觉得 7500 亿美元这个数字需要大量的背景说明。

It's just such a massive number, right. As you say, we're talking about it heading into the trillion dollar, um, realm next year. And so I thought, how can I wrap people's heads around this? I know GDP of a country. Yes, it was GDP of all of Ireland, of all of Belgium. It's more than half of what all of the companies in the S&P 500 index spent in the total in total last year. It's enough to cut $5,500. Um, uh, in a check for every household in the, in the US.

这确实是一个极其庞大的数字,对吧。正如你所说,我们正迈向明年进入万亿美元量级的阶段。所以我思考,该如何让人们理解这个数字的含义呢?我知道一个国家的 GDP。是的,它相当于整个爱尔兰或整个比利时的 GDP。它超过了标普 500 指数所有公司去年总支出的一半以上。这笔钱足以向美国家庭每家发放一张 5500 美元的支票。

So it's a lot. I mean, I think that the only thing that is comparable to this is the build out to the U.S. Highway System. Um. Uh, otherwise, we have never seen such a build out, um, of this enormity, uh, dollar wise. And let's bring you into this, because, as we know, these data centers are complicated. There's a lot of moving parts and a lot of those parts, whether it's power, whether it's semiconductors increasingly have gone up.

所以这是一笔巨款。我的意思是,我认为唯一能与之相提并论的是美国公路系统的建设。嗯。否则,我们在美元规模上从未见过如此庞大程度的建设扩张。让我们深入探讨这一点,因为众所周知,数据中心非常复杂,涉及众多零部件,而这些零部件——无论是电力还是半导体——的成本近年来都在不断上升。

Um, and I think a lot of it is just basic supply and demand. There's just so much demand that the prices of these things have gone up, and it just costs a lot to make them all happen. Yeah, that's absolutely right. I mean, you got to think about it. The main component in these buildings is something that's like a couple of square inches and you're paying $30,000 for one of those. It's using as much electricity as several large flat screen televisions.

嗯,我认为其中很大一部分只是基本的供需关系。需求如此之大,以至于这些东西的价格都上涨了,要实现这一切的成本非常高。是的,这绝对正确。我的意思是,你得想想看。这些建筑中的主要组件只有几平方英寸大小,而你要为其中一个支付3万美元。它消耗的电力相当于好几台大尺寸平板电视。

And you're putting 72 of those in a server. So imagine the expense of just putting one server there and feeding it with power for a year. And obviously there's more than just one server in these machines as lines in these giant data centers is Lin's story really, really shows very well. Uh, Ian, I'm wondering, though, if this stuff gets cheaper and remember, we have the Oracle force majeure that we saw just a couple of weeks ago.

而且你在一个服务器里安装了72个这样的组件。所以想象一下,仅仅放置一台服务器并为其供电一年的费用是多少。显然,这些机器中不止有一台服务器,而这些巨型数据中心里的线路情况,林恩的故事确实展示得非常好。嗯,伊恩,我在想,如果这些东西变得更便宜呢?记住,我们几周前看到了甲骨文公司的不可抗力事件。

But look, as we're reminded all the time, the cure for high prices is high prices. Uh, if you have a lot of people going after something, then more people come off the sidelines and try to give the market those things that are expensive because they want in on the action. Can this stuff get cheaper or is this different? Well, the the other $30 billion question here is chip plants right. Cost even more than these things.

但正如我们不断被提醒的那样,高价格的解药还是高价格。如果有大量人群追逐某种东西,那么更多的人会从旁观者变成参与者,试图向市场提供那些昂贵的物品,因为他们也想参与其中。这些东西能变得更便宜吗?还是说这是不同的情况?嗯,这里另一个价值300亿美元的问题是芯片工厂,对吧?它们的成本甚至比这些东西还要高。

So you don't just rock up and say, oh okay, I'll build a chip factory. You can't do that either. It's, you know, two years to build a chip plant, and we need multiple chip plants to meet the amount of demand that we've got right now. So the problem isn't just a, you know, oh, we can't build enough data centers. It's we can't build enough giant chip plants to feed these data centers within of components. So it's kind of a compounding issue, and there's no real end in sight if demand stays at the current levels, we're just not going to be able to meet it.

所以你不能随便跑来说‘哦,好吧,我要建一座芯片厂’。你也做不到这一点。你知道的,建造一座芯片工厂需要两年时间,而且我们需要多座芯片工厂来满足当前的巨大需求。所以问题不仅仅是‘哦,我们无法建造足够多的数据中心’,而是我们无法建造足够多的巨型芯片工厂来为这些数据中心供应组件。这是一个复合性问题,如果需求保持在当前水平,短期内看不到尽头,我们就无法满足这种需求。

So let's go to we want to bring up, uh, a pie chart, uh, as part of this story. Just give everybody an idea and I'll, I'll spell it out for those who are listening, uh, on radio as well. But it is a pie chart and a big chunk of that pie which is in yellow for those who are watching. Uh, right now, 17.1 billion will go to ships and servers. That's the estimate that we've come up with here at Bloomberg, that you've got about 2.8 billion in contingency planning, 2.2 billion, uh, goes to other 2.4 billion is construction, about 3 billion goes to power, 1.7 billion goes to cooling.

那么让我们来看看我们要提到的饼图,作为这个故事的一部分。给大家一个直观的概念,我也会为正在听广播的人详细说明。这是一个饼图,对于观看的人来说,黄色部分占了很大一块。目前,171亿美元将用于船舶和服务器。这是我们彭博社得出的估计:约有28亿美元用于应急规划,22亿美元用于其他用途,24亿美元用于建设,约30亿美元用于电力,17亿美元用于冷却。

And it is disproportionately as you just laid out semiconductors. Right. That's what makes it all sing these data centers and creates, uh, the eye that people are consuming at this point. We go back to you, Tim and I, time and time again, that you remind us that there are cycles. And again, you do have demand, as Tim said, then you have build, then you have excess capacity and then you have, you know, some fallout. Is this cycle likely to be like any other or.

而且正如你刚才所阐述的,半导体所占的比例不成比例地高。没错。正是这些数据中心让一切运转起来,并形成了人们目前所消耗的眼球效应。Tim和我一次又一次地回到这一点,你提醒我们存在周期。再次强调,正如Tim所说,你有需求,然后有建设,接着出现产能过剩,最后会有一些回落。这个周期是否会与其他周期类似?

No. Just maybe the duration of the cycle could be different. We've never seen anything of the magnitude of this current cycle. You've got one company that's heading to $100 billion a quarter in sales. At a 75% gross margin. You've got memory chip companies that have, you know, demand for the next several years already locked up. So there's never been anything like this in terms of the magnitude, in terms of how long it'll go.

不。只是周期的持续时间可能不同。我们从未见过像当前周期这样规模的景象。有一家公司的季度销售额正迈向1000亿美元,毛利率高达75%。内存芯片公司已经锁定了未来几年的需求。因此在规模以及持续时间方面,从未有过类似的情况。

If I knew that, I wouldn't be sat here talking to you. But but you do remind us that there are it's cyclical. Right? There's nothing to make you think that this is going to be any different this time around. I mean, the industry has always, always overbuilt, right? We've always had this lag between supply and demand. We've never been able to match it. Anybody who tells you that this is going to be different is probably not really understanding how the industry works.

如果我知道的话,我就不会坐在这里和你交谈了。但你确实提醒了我们这是周期性的。对吧?没有理由认为这次会有所不同。我的意思是,这个行业总是过度建设,对吧?供需之间始终存在滞后,我们从未能够完全匹配。任何告诉你这次会不同的人,可能并没有真正理解行业的运作方式。

It's just a case of when the pendulum swings back. Lynn, I want to bring you back in here. We're talking to Lynn Dewan. She's Bloomberg News managing editor of technology at Bloomberg. And also Ian King, Bloomberg News U.S. semiconductor reporter, both joins us from San Francisco. The story we're talking about is the staggering cost of a single data center from from land to chips. I encourage everybody to read this on the terminal or read it at Bloomberg.com and just, uh, play with the interactive element a little bit because it just shows how these costs add up.

这只是一个钟摆何时摆动回来的问题。Lynn,我想把你拉回这个话题。我们正在与Bloomberg News的技术管理编辑Lynn Dewan对话,还有Bloomberg News的美国半导体记者Ian King,他们都从旧金山加入我们。我们要讨论的故事是单个数据中心的惊人成本,从土地到芯片。我鼓励每个人在终端上阅读或在Bloomberg.com上阅读,并稍微玩一下互动元素,因为它展示了这些成本是如何累积起来的。

And there are a lot of costs in there that you wouldn't necessarily associate with this with this type of CapEx. And that's where I want to send it to you, Lynn. What was the most surprising element of cost that goes into a data center from your research that you found? Well, I just want to I want to I want to, uh, double down on what Ian said about the cyclical nature of chips in that way. I used to oversee the energy and commodities team at Bloomberg, and in that way.

其中有很多成本是你不一定能将其与此类资本支出(CapEx)联系起来的。我想把这个问题交给Lynn。根据你的研究,数据中心成本中最令人惊讶的部分是什么?嗯,我只是想,我想,我想,呃,进一步强调Ian关于芯片周期性所说的内容。我以前负责Bloomberg的能源和商品团队,在这方面。

Um, you know, chips have very much become like any other commodity. Every commodity market and energy market is cyclical. You have these cycles of oversupply and then shortage of supply. And what really stood out to me in doing this deep dive with Cushman and Wakefield and Bloomberg Intelligence is that there is this bottleneck, um, across all raw commodities, not just chips, but natural gas turbines and power transformers and concrete and cement and copper and steel.

嗯,你知道,芯片已经变得和其他大宗商品一样。每个商品市场和能源市场都是周期性的。你会经历这些供过于求的周期,然后是供应短缺的周期。在与世邦魏理仕(Cushman and Wakefield)和彭博情报(Bloomberg Intelligence)进行深度调研的过程中,让我印象最深的是,在所有原材料中都存在这种瓶颈,不仅仅是芯片,还有天然气轮机、电力变压器、混凝土、水泥、铜和钢铁。

Um, the inflationary, you know, nature of the boom, uh, is across the board. Um, I think that was probably the most staggering revelation to me is it's not just about the chips, it's about the costs of all of these things soaring. And then suddenly you understand why some of

嗯,繁荣期的通胀性质是普遍存在的。嗯,我认为最令我震惊的发现是,这不仅仅关乎芯片,而是所有这些事物的成本都在飙升。然后你突然明白了为什么有些

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