美房贷利率连升七周，8%或成市场恶化临界点

Well, they stopped buying home homes for one, you know, really high borrowing rates and overall, uh, lack of affordability out there. And the housing market is really stalling housing market activity. When you look at where home sales are today, they continue to be at some of the lowest lows we've seen, especially adjusted for a population growth over the last few, you know, decades. So we are in a really low turnover environment for the housing market, and there's really no signals that things are going to improve.

Now, you know, a lot of the forecasts for 2027, for example, had home sales gradually improving and, you know, improvement through the rest of the decade. But you know, we're looking at a different environment now with higher focus. But if I have to sell, what percentage price am I reducing the home. Does fatality have that number. Yeah. No we do what we do. So the average price reduction out there is about 3 to 5%. And honestly that's not that much, uh, further away from where we are historically.

And this is typically typically, you know, when you look at the, uh, where a list price is versus sale price, it does come a little bit below that list price, uh, on average. So even before the, uh, we went through this surge in the housing market during the pandemic, uh, in that 2012 to 2019 period, home prices were selling at that 3 to 5% discount. So we are still in that range. And really it depends where inventory is.

So it's about individual markets. So yeah, some markets where there is no inventory home still sell over the asking price. So somewhat at that point you know it seems like then we don't really have a national sort of situation. It's still very regional. Is there like a clearing price you have in mind for the mortgage rate? They'll start to get this sort of price discovery back on as we like unleashed pent up mobility.

Or are you generally thinking it's always just going to be more regional because of what we had post-Covid? Well, honestly, you know, when we had rates coming to low 60s or even when a drop below six right before the Middle East situation we did have unleashing in many markets. We had stronger demand, even in the markets that were really weak over the last couple of years. They were coming back. I mean, think about over the last couple of years, we've been talking a lot about weakness in Florida and Texas.

Those markets were actually coming back, uh, when mortgage rates came at six and below. So I think that is that psychological barrier for, uh, for people. It's definitely not 7%. So some of the prior guess we're talking about how people maybe the baby boomer generation starting to sell some of their equity holders. Are we seeing any increasing, turning to the hillocks and sort of trying to cash out on that, or is a trend basically being more stable?

Well, we have seen increases in hillocks and home equity. Uh, credits. Uh, you know, we are at some of the highest levels where we are at highest levels of equity that people ever had. I mean, we were a little bit higher a couple of years ago before some of these price resets. But, uh, you know, people on average have about $310,000 in equity markets like New York, you know, um, Lawton, California. Uh, Washington state is as much as 600 to $800,000.

So people have a lot of equity. And because of that lack of ability or mobility, uh, to go somewhere else, they are investing in their homes. So we we're seeing increases in tapping into the equity. Uh, on average, unfortunately, only about 2% of that equity has actually been tapped into because people are still worried about very high borrowing costs. Wearing your head. We got to go. But we're in your head, Selma. Is the mortgage rate where it becomes painful or price moves, etc. is it 7.75?

Is it 8% or is it some silly number higher? Well, you know, when we reached 8% I want to say that was in 2024. Yeah. We did see more significant slowdown in home prices. We are seeing some slowing right now. But at the national level we're still positive, right. But I think 8% is the point at which more markets start to deteriorate. Okay.