胡塞袭击沙特机场致油价波动，美俄能源供应前景不明

There hasn't been an overreaction on the energy markets to the flow of news over the weekend. That's right. And probably surprising to all of us. We did see oil up at the open and it's since come off a little bit. There's quite a bit that the market is digesting. So remember though we have seen obviously increased hostilities around Saudi. We've seen attacks in Hormuz. Oil is still getting through. And that really is what is fundamental for the market.

Should this continue, however I would expect to see a little bit more reaction. The other bit that the market is really thinking about is how to gauge this supposed ceasefire that President Trump is talking about in Ukraine, and the extent to which that could increase supply to the market. There's a lot of uncertainty at the moment, and I think the price movement that you're seeing is really evidence of everyone trying to manage with very little information.

Clara, David here, tell us more about the energy ceasefire. Uh, and obviously that's the positive offset. If in fact, we do get an escalation in the Middle East. Uh, yeah. Talk us through the Russia Ukraine story here today a little bit more, if you could. Well, here I would say the market is playing hope against experience. Um, it's a very so there's no real confirmation that the ceasefire is, in fact, in effect. Uh, some cautious words from Zelenskyy, but not a lot from the other side.

We have seen President Trump make this sort of comment before. I think the most important thing to keep in mind, really, is how limited, um, these flows of diesel would be. So remember that while crude has been seen limited increases, we've seen huge movement in fuels. Diesel is a real concern. It's a particular concern to President Trump as we go into the midterms. Uh, and that's really what he's thinking about when he when he promotes this ceasefire.

But the deal that he's agreed, this diesel coming into the market and the extent to which Russian refineries and Russian ports will be able to continue to serve the market. It's really open to question. Certainly the immediate flows are really pretty limited, so we wouldn't expect to see huge market impact. What is the likelihood, I should say, of a widening conflict with the United States, obviously possibly getting involved?

They did have some significant strikes against the Houthis last year before a truce was reached. But again, you know, Riyadh is calling for more support from its allies. Well, so far, what we heard is that the Trump administration is being is has been very reluctant to go back into the conflict with the Hothis as you mentioned, there has been this, uh, intensive air campaign, uh, led by the US last year against the Houthis After that, uh, because of the truce that, uh, was agreed between both sides, the US ships in the area have not been targeted by the Houthis and there was the assumption that, um, thanks to this truce, uh, the conflict with Iran had not spilled over to, uh, Yemen.

This logic is more and more unraveling today. And it puts again, uh, Donald Trump in a difficult spot because we've heard over the last days that he's, uh, open to the idea of joining the fight with the Saudis. But even if the US was to come back, there's no clear idea on how, uh, this would actually solve the problem with the Houthis. We're talking about a conflict inside Yemen that has been lasting for more than a decade.

Uh, and there's no strong, uh, opponent to the Houthis inside Yemen. So that is one of the reasons also why the US administration probably is not, uh, so sure about, uh, intervention so far. What do you think could trigger that? In what way do you think? Or do you see, if at all there is a possibility, Jean-Loup, that the US gets involved militarily here? Well, I think what is going to be very important to follow in the coming days, uh, is if we have more of the attacks, uh, of the last weekend, uh, because as mentioned by most media, uh, the attack that killed uh, 12 people on Saturday, that was the deadliest attack in more than a decade inside Saudi Arabia.

Uh, Saudi Arabia had been relatively, uh, immune or had suffered less attacks than its Gulf neighbors during the conflict with Iran over the past months. So if there is more and more escalation, if there is the, uh, the realization that the Saudi kingdom can not really, uh, deal with the Houthis with its own defense, uh, means, uh, this might force the US to intervene. Uh, again, the question it will be, is it more defense provided to the territory of Saudi Arabia Or are we going to see more, uh, a US intervention on the offensive with airstrikes?

But even that's, uh, I doubt we're talking about something more than what we saw last year, which was airstrikes. No boots on the ground that I don't think is something likely to happen anytime soon. Obviously, this is the second attack on the airport. What is being done to to stabilize the situation? Yeah. Good morning Steve. I mean, this is the second attack on Sunday following the deadliest incident in Saudi Arabia since this whole war started between the US and Iran back in March.

So you have reported that 12 people were killed on Saturday, over 300 people injured, some of them in critical conditions. This is, of course, after the Houthis claimed an attack against King Khalid airport, the main airport in Riyadh, the capital, and this follows escalations between the two parties. Of course, Saudi Arabia had on the beginning of that week last week set out to eliminate. This is, to quote officials in the Saudi Kingdom, eliminate the Houthi threat.

This is after the Houthis. The Yemen based Houthis, of course, backed by Iran, had made their way through the Red sea. Bab-al-Mandab, a crucial waterway that Saudi Arabia has been resorting to to get its crude shipments outside. In the instance of the shuttering, of course, of the Strait of Hormuz. So Saudi Arabia says that they have taken back some of the assets that the Houthis have claimed. This has led to a retaliation by the Houthis.

And then, of course, Saudi Arabia retaliated yesterday by hitting the airport in Sanaa, Yemen, which is under the control of the Yemenis. And Steve is just important to allude to the fact that this is all happening at a crucial month for Saudi Arabia. A very important conference is currently taking place, that is the World Petroleum Congress. We have reported that officials or that executives from BP and Shell are no longer attending in person.