沙特机场遇袭致百余人伤亡，中东地缘风险加剧推高航运成本

Let me start with you. And maybe you can just get us up to speed on what we know and don't know. This was the latest in a string of attacks that Saudi Arabia has seen over the course of the last few days here. But to Cristina's point, put this in some context here. This was a massive attack and it's having seismic ramifications across the region. Yeah, absolutely David. Enemy the size and scope there is the superlative.

As you guys have just alluded to, this is the single deadliest incident since the start of the Iran war. And of course, when we talk about the wider context, the war between Iran and the US is still very much taking place, as you guys know. But this has taken a different front. This is a war that's been going on between Saudi Arabia and the Yemen based Houthis. For the good part of the past decade, it has accelerated over the past few weeks.

Of course, we've reported on a major pipeline in Saudi Arabia being shut down for a little bit. And now this attack on King Khalid Airport in, uh, in Riyadh, the capital, of course, the main airport in the city we've reported about a dozen casualties, over 300 injuries, some of them in critical conditions. I mean, the footage that you guys were showing at the top of the segment is just devastating. It really gets to show just how much damage there is.

And you also alluded to the fact that this happens at a time where Saudi Arabia is gearing up for two major conferences. One is already taking place. WPC that is the World Petroleum Congress with a lot of officials and a lot of executives from big companies were expected to attend. The latest reporting that we have is that BP May O'Neal is no longer attending in person. What? And so on from shell. Also, according to Bloomberg, reporting not attending due to the of course, disruption that we're seeing in the flight movement.

And we're gearing up in a couple of weeks time to the 10th anniversary for the FII, the major financial conferences. So that is for now, going ahead. It is going according to plan. But of course, the situation remains very, very fluid this morning and yesterday in Saudi Arabia. Warnings from the UK and the US about travel in light of all of this. Alex, as we talk a lot about this conflict in the East, we talk about urban populations previously considering themselves safe, now suddenly finding themselves at risk in this conflict.

This is obviously something they've been dealing with in Ukraine, in Kiev in particular for quite some time now. There were some very tough strikes, a lot of casualties over the past week. And now that comes on the heels of these remarks from President Trump. I'm wondering how they were received inside the country. And then we've already seen some reaction from European leaders. If you could take us through that. Um, yes, absolutely.

Uh, the Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities are nothing new. They have been taking place since 2022, but in recent weeks Russia has been intensifying. And this is largely due to the fact that the Russian forces on the battlefield are not doing well in some areas. They're even reportedly retreating. Um, and as a result, Russia has taken the war to the air, uh, striking civilians and civilian targets such as bridges, hospitals, schools and and just people's homes in multiple cities.

Um, in terms of the, uh, uh, the comments by the US President Trump, um, this is, uh, not something that majority of Ukraine, uh, Ukrainian population is currently supporting. Um, uh, according to the latest poll in which was taken in Ukraine, uh, in late September. 71% Ukrainians believe that uh, elections cannot take place while the worries and going only 24% think that elections can take place. Um, so based on this, I said, I suspect that Ukraine will be unwilling to hold a fresh election.

And even if there is a fresh election, um, the president Zielinski his approval rating is actually quite high. And, uh, in a hypothetical, uh, Paul, about if he wanted to run again. Um, he's actually performing fairly well, either as the front runner or the the second. Maybe we can spend some time talking about this diesel deal and ramifications, both in Ukraine and in that conflict, in what's happening in the Middle East as well.

But, Alex, let me go to you first on that point. Uh, President Zelensky's consternation, outrage over this deal is really evident in the post that he's made on social media. The remarks that, uh, that he's given here. Walk us through what it means that in real terms, what he's arguing here is this is money that will go straight into Russia's coffers and will allow them to prolong this, this conflict. Uh, and the present United States, presumably is blind to that or ignoring that fact.

What does it mean in real terms here, to have this money flowing back into Russia in this way? Uh, if this diesel importation is allowed to go forward, Russia has a multiple advantages over Ukraine in terms of financial power, manpower and firepower. And Ukraine has been trying to reduce at least some of those for quite some time. Uh, Ukrainian attacks in Russian refineries and other energy infrastructure was one of the ways to reduce the Russian financial power and, uh, reduce the ability of the Russian state to fund this war.

Uh, so from the Ukrainian perspective, anything that helps Russian financial position is damaging. Um, I do not think that it will have a very materially big impact on, uh, Russian fiscal position because the volumes, um, of diesel to be exported by Russia are fairly small. Uh, especially on the global level. But, uh, from the Ukrainian perspective, this is about, uh, a matter of principle. Uh, Ukraine expects countries to reduce, uh, their trade, uh, with Russia rather than increase their trade with Russia.

Um, here, when you look at what is going on with oil production and transport in your region. It seems to me you've got three main issues, right? You've got refining capacity, you've got delivery and then you've got a production. This was a really tough week for tankers in the Gulf, right? This past week, 11 tankers came under attack. We also showed a chart a couple of days ago that the cost of shipping is at an all time high.

It goes like this and then like this. And that's everything. That's insurance. That's the crew. That's just the cost of moving this around. How are Gulf leaders trying to deal with this given the current state of play? Given all the uncertainties and now the fact that the Red sea is not a safe bet as a way to get this product to market. Yeah, it's a deep problem. Christina. Right. I mean, some of the Gulf officials, including in the UAE and more recently in Saudi Arabia, have been doubling down on this argument that in a couple of years time, in a few years time, they want to develop the zero Hormuz strategy, where none of their tankers go through the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, this has been kind of mimicked by U.S. officials on your side of the room. But for the time being, what you're seeing the Strait of Hormuz in the numbers that you have alluded to, more than 500% increase in the trip that tankers or super tankers make from the Persian Gulf to Asia. As a matter of fact, Bloomberg ran a story suggesting that it's now more expensive to make that trip to Asia than it is to fly a rocket to space.

So that just gets to show you, again, the superlatives that we're dealing with here for Saudi Arabia. And perhaps it's the focal point this morning it's been resorting to the Red sea again. This whole thing started the attacks on Saudi Arabia started because it set out on a route to eliminate. And this is to again, quote, Saudi officials eliminate the Houthi threat. The Houthis have, of course, been diving into the Red sea, taking some real assets there.

Saudi Arabia says that it has taken some of the assets that the Houthis have taken a hold of over the past few weeks, namely marjah, which is a main island that is very close to uh, is that where w