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VC退出与创始人套现：IPO后10-13年才流动，每年仅能卖4%

It Takes 12 Years to IPO. Then Another 2-3 for Your VCs to Get Liquid. And Founders Can Generally Only Sell About ~4% a Year.

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用真实数据打破“上市即暴富”的幻觉，给创始人和早期员工提供了关于股权流动性的现实预期与具体操作路径。

An IPO should be Plan A. It’s the best outcome for almost everyone on the cap table.

IPO 应该是计划 A。这对股权表上的几乎所有人来说都是最佳结果。

But founders, employees and even a lot of VCs treat the IPO date as the liquidity date. For most of the cap table … most of the money comes years later. Start the clock at the first check and the lead investor in a great IPO is usually 10 to 13 years in and still holding stock.

但创始人、员工甚至许多风险投资家都将 IPO 日期视为流动性实现日。对于大多数股权表持有者而言……大部分资金要多年后才能到位。从第一笔注资开始计时，一家优秀 IPO 的领投方通常在第 10 到 13 年仍持有股票。

Meghan Reynolds of Altimeter highlighted it on SpaceX: roughly 40% of private investors’ shares are distributable, and LPs have received far less. The filings back her up, and SpaceX is typical.

Altimeter 的 Meghan Reynolds 以 SpaceX 为例强调了这一点：大约 40% 的私募投资者股份可分配，而有限合伙人（LPs）收到的远少于这个比例。相关备案文件支持这一观点，且 SpaceX 的情况具有典型性。

The Median Tech Company Takes 11.5 Years to IPO. A Fund Lasts 10.

中型科技公司平均需 11.5 年才能 IPO。一只基金的生命周期为 10 年。

PitchBook puts the median time to IPO for tech companies at 11.5 years. The standard venture fund term is still 10. And 45% of unicorns have already been held in portfolios for nine years or more.

PitchBook 数据显示，科技公司的中位数 IPO 时间为 11.5 年。标准的风投基金期限仍为 10 年。此外，45% 的独角兽企业已在投资组合中持有了九年或更久。

Few companies get there. US VC-backed exits in H1 2025 totaled 649: 472 acquisitions, 150 buyouts and 27 public listings. That’s 4% going public.

很少有公司能走到这一步。2025 年上半年美国由风投支持的退出案例总计 649 起：其中收购 472 起，管理层回购（buyouts）150 起，公开上市 27 起。这意味着只有 4% 的公司实现了公开上市。

First Check to Last Share: Six Clocks

从首笔注资到最后一次股份分配：六只时钟

In all five IPOs, the lead VC still holds stock.

在所有五起 IPO 案例中，领投的风险投资家仍持有股票。

Snowflake: 9.5 Years, and That’s the Best Case

Snowflake：耗时 9.5 年，这已是最佳情况

  • Sutter Hill incubated Snowflake in 2012.
  • Mike Speiser was its CEO from 2012 to 2014.
  • At the September 2020 IPO, Sutter Hill owned 20.3%, worth about $12.6 billion on less than $200 million invested.
  • Its first filing after the IPO showed 32,399,403 shares, 11.4% of the company.
  • The next one, as of December 31, 2021, showed 3,925,889 shares, or 1.3%.
  • Sutter Hill 于 2012 年孵化了 Snowflake。
  • Mike Speiser 在 2012 年至 2014 年间担任其首席执行官。
  • 在 2020 年 9 月的 IPO 时，Sutter Hill 持有 20.3% 的股份，基于不到 2 亿美元的投资，价值约 126 亿美元。
  • 其在 IPO 后的首次备案显示持有 32,399,403 股，占公司总股本的 11.4%。
  • 下一次备案截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日，显示持有 3,925,889 股，占比降至 1.3%。

This is one of the fastest examples of almost complete VC liquidity in the modern tech IPO era. 8 years to IPO, then 15 more months to get down to 1.3%. And Snowflake’s stock held up through the whole distribution window.

这是现代科技 IPO 时代中几乎完全实现风投退出的最快案例之一。IPO 耗时 8 年，随后又花了 15 个月将持股比例降至 1.3%。在整个分配窗口期内，Snowflake 的股价表现稳健。

Rubrik: 12.4 Years In, 82% Out

Rubrik：历时 12.4 年，已退出 82%

  • Lightspeed led Rubrik’s Series A in 2014, the year it was founded.
  • Going into the April 2024 IPO it held 38,984,426 shares, 23.9% of the company.
  • On December 31, 2025, Lightspeed funds held 9,525,413 Class B shares.
  • On June 30, 2026, they held 7,144,060.
  • Form 4s from this summer show more in-kind distributions.
  • Lightspeed 在 Rubrik 成立的 2014 年领投了其 A 轮融资。
  • 在进入 2024 年 4 月的 IPO 时，Lightspeed 持有 38,984,426 股，占公司总股本的 23.9%。
  • 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，Lightspeed 旗下基金持有 9,525,413 股 B 类股。
  • 截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日，其持股数量为 7,144,060 股。
  • 今年夏天的 Form 4 表格显示还有更多的实物分配。

Lightspeed is 82% out, 26 months after the IPO and 12.4 years after the first check. At the recent pace of 2.4 million shares per six months, the last 18% takes about 18 more months.

Lightspeed 已退出 82%，这是在 IPO 后 26 个月、首笔注资后 12.4 年的状态。按照最近每六个月 240 万股的速度计算，剩余的 18% 大约还需要 18 个月才能完成分配。

Founder Bipul Sinha has sold far less. He held 12,342,646 shares before the IPO. In September 2026 he still held 10,679,839 Class B shares directly, about 87%. That month he entered a prepaid variable forward on 500,000 shares, a structured product to get cash from a small slice, 12.7 years after founding.

创始人 Bipul Sinha 出售的股份远少于此。他在 IPO 前持有 12,342,646 股。截至 2026 年 9 月，他直接持有 10,679,839 股 B 类股，约占 87%。当月，他就 50 万股股票签订了一份预付可变远期合约（prepaid variable forward），这是一种结构化产品，旨在从一小部分股份中获取现金，此时距公司创立已过去 12.7 年。

Samsara: Still Distributing 45 Months After the IPO

Samsara：IPO后45个月仍在分配

Samsara was founded in 2015 and went public in December 2021, a fast six and a half years.

Samsara成立于2015年，于2021年12月上市，历时六年半，速度很快。

The distributions have still run long. a16z entities were making in-kind distributions and open-market sales in September 2025. That month’s filing showed 4,512,974 shares left, down from 19,889,079 in the prior one. That was 10 years after the first check.

分配过程依然漫长。a16z实体在2025年9月进行了实物分配和公开市场销售。当月披露显示剩余4,512,974股，较此前披露的19,889,079股减少。这是自第一笔投资支票开出后的第十年。

Co-founder John Bicket reported 98,314,290 shares in February 2026, down 4.07% from 102,480,719 a year earlier. He’s 11 years in, four years public, and selling about 4% of his stake a year.

联合创始人John Bicket在2026年2月报告持有98,314,290股，较一年前的102,480,719股下降4.07%。他已持股11年，公司上市4年，每年出售约4%的股份。

Figma: 13 Years In, 50.3 Million Shares Still in the Fund

Figma：成立13年，基金中仍有5030万股未分配

  • Figma was founded in 2012 and Index led the seed in 2013. It IPO’d July 31, 2025 at $33 and closed its first day at $115.50.
  • A month later, holders of about 54.1% of Class A shares signed an extended lock-up through August 31, 2026. It released in four steps: 17.5%, 20%, 27.5%, then the remainder.
  • That final block was 77.7 million shares, released in August 2026 with Figma at $23.97, about a $12.6 billion valuation. It closed Friday at $21.36. Adobe offered $20 billion in 2022.
  • Index has barely started distributing. On August 11, 2026, Index Ventures VI distributed 2,758,691 shares and still held 50,293,428 directly. That one distribution was about 5% of the fund’s stake.
  • Figma成立于2012年，Index在2013年领投种子轮。它于2025年7月31日以33美元的价格IPO，首日收盘价为115.50美元。
  • 一个月后，持有约54.1% A类股份的持有人签署了延长锁定期至2026年8月31日。分四步释放：17.5%、20%、27.5%，然后是剩余部分。
  • 最后一批为7770万股，于2026年8月释放，当时Figma股价为23.97美元，估值约126亿美元。周五收盘价为21.36美元。Adobe曾在2022年提出200亿美元的收购报价。
  • Index几乎尚未开始分配。2026年8月11日，Index Ventures VI分配了2,758,691股，直接持有50,293,428股。仅这一笔分配就约占该基金持仓的5%。

Dylan Field sold 2.35 million shares in the IPO and 3,029,063 more in the three months before the January 2026 unlock. That’s about 5.4 million shares, roughly 9% of his stake, for something like $190 million. A year after the IPO he still holds about 53 million shares, close to 90% of what he started with.

Dylan Field在IPO时出售了235万股，并在2026年1月解锁前三个月内又出售了3,029,063股。这大约是540万股，约占其持股的9%，套现约1.9亿美元。IPO一年后，他仍持有约5300万股，接近初始持股的90%。

SpaceX: 24 Years to IPO, 8.5% Distributed

SpaceX：IPO耗时24年，已分配8.5%

SpaceX was founded in 2002. It priced at $135 and started trading June 12, 2026. Instead of a 180-day cliff, it used a staggered schedule:

SpaceX成立于2002年。定价为135美元，并于2026年6月12日开始交易。它没有采用180天的悬崖式解禁，而是使用了分批时间表：

  • Up to 20% after Q2 earnings, plus 10% more if the stock was up 30%
  • 7% more at each of days 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135
  • Up to 28% more after Q3 earnings, with everything released at 180 days in mid-December
  • 第二季度财报发布后最多解禁20%，如果股价上涨30%则额外解禁10%
  • 在第70、90、105、120和135天各额外解禁7%
  • 第三季度财报发布后最多额外解禁28%，所有股份将在12月中旬的第180天全部释放

That’s 41% unlocked so far, which is Meghan’s “~40% distributable.”

目前已有41%解除限制，这就是Meghan所说的“~40%可分配”。

Valor Equity Partners, an early backer, reported distributing 42,790,223 shares in kind in a Form 4 dated September 11. It still held 460,624,307. Valor has distributed 8.5%.

早期支持者Valor Equity Partners在9月11日的Form 4文件中报告以实物形式分配了42,790,223股。其仍持有460,624,307股。Valor已分配8.5%。

The rest is slower:

其余部分较慢：

  • An extended lock-up covers about 7.8 billion shares, roughly 60% of the company, including all of Musk’s. It releases in slices tied to Q4 2026, Q1 2027 and Q2 2027 results.
  • A first-layer SPV gets 30 days to distribute after it receives shares. Each layer below waits on the one above.
  • Musk’s shares are locked until June 12, 2027 with no early release. He’ll be 25 years past founding before his first sale.
  • 延长锁定期覆盖约78亿股，约占公司的60%，包括马斯克持有的全部股份。它将分批次释放，与2026年第四季度、2027年第一季度和2027年第二季度的业绩挂钩。
  • 第一层SPV在收到股份后有30天的分配期。每一层都要等待上一层完成。
  • 马斯克的股份被锁定至2027年6月12日，且无提前释放条款。在他首次出售时，距离公司创立已过去25年。

The price moved the whole time. By late July the stock was down about 50% from its post-IPO peak. It closed last week at $158.96, about 51.6% above its low.

股价一直在波动。到7月下旬，该股较IPO后高点下跌约50%。上周收盘价为158.96美元，较其低点高出约51.6%。

Wiz: 6 Years From Founding to $32 Billion in Cash. Case Study of How M&A Can Be So Much Faster.

Wiz：从创立到320亿美元现金仅用6年。M&A为何能如此迅速的案例研究。

Wiz was founded in 2020. Google signed an all-cash $32 billion deal on March 18, 2025. It closed March 11, 2026.

Wiz成立于2020年。谷歌于2025年3月18日签署了一笔320亿美元的纯现金交易。该交易于2026年3月11日完成。

That was a slow deal. The regulatory review alone ran 12 months across the US, EU, Australia, Israel and others. Founders, seed investors and employees still all got paid on the same day, six years in.

这是一笔缓慢的交易。仅监管审查就历时12个月，涉及美国、欧盟、澳大利亚、以色列等国家。创始人、种子轮投资者和员工在六年后的同一天收到了款项。

M&A holds some money back too, but far less. From SRS Acquiom’s 2026 study of 2025 deals:

M&A也会扣留部分资金，但远少于上述情况。根据SRS Acquiom对2025年交易的2026年研究报告：

  • 88% of private-target deals had an escrow or holdback
  • Median escrow was 10.0% of deal value without RWI and 2.8% with it
  • 24% had an earnout, with median earnout potential at 34% of the closing payment
  • Earnouts have paid about 21 cents per potential dollar
  • 88%的私有目标公司交易设有托管或留存机制
  • 中位数托管比例为：无RWI（陈述与保证保险）时为交易价值的10.0%，有RWI时为2.8%
  • 24%的交易设有盈利支付计划（Earnout），其中位数盈利支付潜力为成交价的34%
  • 盈利支付实际兑现额约为潜在金额的每1美元支付21美分

Deals also die. Adobe and Figma signed in September 2022 and terminated in December 2023, 15 months of limbo for a $1 billion breakup fee.

交易也会失败。Adobe和Figma于2022年9月签约，并于2023年12月终止，经历了15个月的悬而未决状态，并支付了10亿美元的分手费。

How Founders Actually Sell: 4% to 8% in the IPO, Then a Few Percent a Year

创始人如何实际出售股票：IPO阶段出售4%至8%，随后每年出售少量百分比

Founders have more ways to sell than most people think. They still end up selling slowly.

创始人的出售渠道比大多数人想象的要多。但他们最终仍然是缓慢出售。

  • They can sell in the IPO itself. Circle’s Jeremy Allaire sold 1.58 million shares in the June 2025 IPO, about 8% of his stake. Co-founder Sean Neville sold 11%. Field sold roughly 4% of his in Figma’s. In 2025, 13.8% of the shares in VC-backed IPOs came from existing holders, up from an 8.5% long-run average.
  • They can sell in a follow-on if the bank waives the lock-up. Circle came back 71 days after its IPO. JPMorgan released the lock-up early, and holders sold 8 million of the 10 million shares at $130, against a $31 IPO price. Allaire sold another 357,812 shares, about $46 million. Between the two deals he sold about 10% of his stake in 71 days.
  • They can sell on a 10b5-1 plan. Field adopted one in August 2025, the month after the IPO. Allaire’s sold 56,200 shares in July 2026 and 56,200 again in August. These run automatically after a 90-day cooling-off.
  • They can sell before the IPO. Stripe’s 2026 tender was open to employees and shareholders. A founder who sells in tenders arrives at the IPO with money already out.
  • And they can use structure. Sinha’s prepaid variable forward on 500,000 Rubrik shares gets him cash now on stock he delivers later.
  • 他们可以在IPO本身中出售。Circle的Jeremy Allaire在2025年6月的IPO中出售了158万股，约占其持股的8%。联合创始人Sean Neville出售了11%。Field在Figma的IPO中出售了其持股的大约4%。2025年，VC支持的公司IPO中有13.8%的股份来自现有持有者，高于长期平均水平的8.5%。
  • 如果银行豁免锁定期，他们可以在后续发行中出售。Circle在IPO后71天再次上市。摩根大通提前解除了锁定期，持有者以130美元的价格出售了1000万股中的800万股，而IPO价格为31美元。Allaire又出售了357,812股，价值约4600万美元。在这两笔交易中，他在71天内出售了其持股的大约10%。
  • 他们可以通过10b5-1计划出售。Field于2025年8月（IPO后一个月）采用了一项计划。Allaire在2026年7月出售了56,200股，8月又出售了56,200股。这些计划在90天的冷却期后自动运行。
  • 他们可以在IPO之前出售。Stripe的2026年要约收购向员工和股东开放。在要约收购中出售股票的创始人，在IPO时已经套现了部分资金。
  • 他们可以利用结构化产品。辛哈对50万股Rubrik股票进行的预付可变远期合约让他现在就能获得现金，而股票则稍后交付。

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