Justin Drake呼吁迁移资金至抗量子钱包

Bankless Nation, it is the second week of Downtober, the weekly roll up. AI is breaking math. Will it break crypto as well? We're two weeks into October and blockchains are breaking according to Justin Drake.

Not yet,

who is calling for a mass migration of funds to more secure wallets and also tells everyone, don't panic. Uh, crypto perhaps maybe less safe than we once thought. It's all AI's fault. If you're wondering what's going on, it's AI and people are panicking.

Oh my god, that was a doozy of a tweet for sure. Uh, David is live in Singapore, by the way. We should say that. So, at the end of the today's episode, we're going to talk about token 2049 and what David saw there. Did he see the end of cryptography?

That's No, that was not a topic of discussion.

Well, I was going to ask you if you saw Tom Lee. He gave a session at token 2049. Some news from that is he's going to stop buying ETH after he collects his 5%. He's almost there. That's the hard cap. That was a question outstanding. He answered it on the week. We'll talk about what that means. Also, two Ethereum L2s 6 feet under. They are dead than dead. Abstract and Blast and maybe Starknet next.

Let's talk about that too. Yeah, Sarnet is not dying, but the there is a question about whether they will move off of the Ethereum layer 1 due to the quantum concerns. It all kind of comes back.

Is that really why quantum

I thought it was for token price?

No, no, no, no. That that was why it's like the Starknet is already quantum resistant and so they're like, "Okay, well, our base layer is not and Justin Drake is saying get off like go move to safety."

Yeah. And so I was like, "Okay, we'll take Justin D." Justin Drake's advice will become a layer one. Anyways, uh let's get into the markets. Uh Oto October is not a thing yet. We are still in downtober for the first eight days. Uh Bitcoin down about 3% on the week to $82,300. ETH down 6% on the week to $2500. And then the altcoins are the ones that were up bigly are down bigly as well.

Yeah, altcoin flush does continue. I think uh you noted Zcash down about 13%, Venice down 17%, Athena down 17%. So coughing up some of those gains from uh August and September, aren't we?

I I believe last week we talked about how there they were already down in the double digits and I I said something along the lines of if this was all that it was then it's pretty easy. We're getting off pretty easy. Thanks for saying that.

It was it was not all that it was. Yeah. Yeah. I think what's really going on is u if we could just take last week's section, Ryan about yields are up and oil is up. We could just copy that from last week, copy paste it into this week.

Ex except it's kind of worse when it's like six weeks in a row now of like high treasury yields and high oil prices. Uh we said this exact same line last week. Highest Treasury prices since 20 2002. The 10-year hit 5.3%. The 30 year is at 5.7%. Uh you know it's one thing when you're just like noticing the market like and the yields are going up. Like oh wow yields are going up. This is different. This is starting to be a little different.

I think the market both crypto and the trady just because like okay that's too fast.

That's too fast. something's going to break.

I think another place this comes in is if you're trying to get a mortgage. So, I if you've been trying to get a mortgage lately, but um

I have not.

Anytime I've tried to get a mortgage over the past 10 to 15 years, I mean, the rates have been, you know, 3 4% something like that.

Yeah. Favorable. Now, you're trying to lock in a mortgage, a 30-year fixed in the US,

That's all downstream of treasuries. I feel like the housing market is going to feel some more than jitters in the short term.

I mean, in the 1980s, we got into the double digit territory for a mortgage. Can you imagine locking in a mortgage at like 11 12% a 30-year?

You have to be really into buying a house. Why would you buy right now when you could just rent?

Well, that's kind of the maybe the bullish take on the yields and uh it was a take that you like to see. I think you included in the agenda because of that reason which is

if you own treasuries so let's say you're a whale you're an institutional investor you have treasuries you're actually receiving that yield in the form of cash you have to pay tax on it of course but here's the take higher rates inject more money into the economy that money gets allocated to equities and the effects of passive management drive valuations higher so all of those yields converts to cash investors take that cash and they plug it right back into equities And maybe that's part of the reason we have S&P NASDAQ all-time high.

At least that's one ex explanation of it. I'm not sure that I totally buy it.

The the other thing that I always kind of just think of it when yields go up is like the whole Bitcoin the basic Bitcoin thesis of the government can't pay its debt when yields are at 5.5% versus what we were used to at like 1 or 2%. That becomes true five times faster. So if like this the debt that the government has to pay which creates money printing which creates liquidity is just is accelerating. Now a high yield environment historically has not favored Bitcoin but nonetheless like this this is ultimately accelerating the whole debasement trade.

I mean historically it hasn't favored stocks either yet where yields are going higher and stocks are at all time highs. So, we might be just in a I mean, we talked about this last week, but we've been in kind of the low yields regime for a long time, the Zer era, that sort of thing. We might be transitioning to a a totally new regime. Oil also broke 100 on the week. Why?

Because of no new regime.

You like what I did there?

Sure.

Uh yeah. Uh okay. Why? Uh there is oil flowing through the string of Hormuz. So the the the the data about the actual oil flow is like the hormuse is seemingly open but I think it's just insurance costs of the oil is really really high. So even though oil is flowing it is still expensive to ensure it because Iran is still taking its attempt to strike at tankers as as it as it goes. And so even during the actual height of the conflict there was only so many days when oil was above 100.

And we are once again above $100 an oil uh for a barrel of oil.

So we've got some headwinds in macro in the form of possible yield.

It's a tough environment. It's a tough environment.

It's a tough environment. At the same time, Bitcoin is not yet capitulated. I mean, you said we're only down 3% even with

We are having a normal midbull market flush right now.

That's right. Uh ETFs down on the week. I mean, had a pretty red day. uh you know the most red day in Bitcoin ETF since October. But on the other hand, Robin Hood added 25 million worth of Bitcoin to their balance sheet, their first purchase ever for a crypto treasury. Uh the reason they said was to align our company and vision with the crypto community. So this is not a lot of money against aundred million billion dollar market cap, but it is symbol symbolic, right?

It's like you're if you're with us, you own some of our bags.

Yeah. I uh hosted a panel with Johan, the man featured on the page right here, and also with Joseph Luben on stage. And I asked Johan when he would be allocating $25 million of ETH to his balance sheet.

He kind of filler bustered me.

So you didn't get a yes from that, huh?

I did. No, he did not. I did not get confirmation that they would be doing that. Well, um, some key levels to watch according to Mike, Michael NATO on he he actually is pretty bullish Bitcoin structurally. He doesn't think we go under 78K uh, Bitcoin price. Um, and he's not worried until we drop into the 60s. Of course, if we drop below 66, it's dunzo.

Yeah, it's already a little late. Like, h, okay, if it's if it drops below 66,000, I