美联储9月会议纪要：19票一致加息，预计年底前再加息一次
Fed Minutes Show Hawkish Unity Behind September Hike
美联储会议纪要确认了年内必有一次额外加息的预期，这是影响利率定价与资产估值的关键宏观事实，建议投资者关注后续通胀数据对12月决议的具体指引。
THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY," REPORTING FROM THE MAGAZINE THAT HELPS GLOBAL LEADERS STAY HAD WITH INSIGHT ON THE PEOPLE, COMPANIES AND TRENDS SHAPING TODAY'S COMPLEX ECONOMY, PLUS GLOBAL BUSINESS, FINANCE AND TECH NEWS AS IT HAPPENS. "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY" WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC, LIVE ON BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. CAROL: ACROSS BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS, I AM CAROL MASSAR ALONG WITH -- TIM IS OFF THIS WEEK -- AND LUCKY FOR US, LISA MATEO IS ONE OF THE HOSTS JOINING US THIS AFTERNOON.
这里是《彭博商业周刊日报》，从帮助全球领导者深入了解塑造当今复杂经济格局的人物、公司和趋势的杂志，以及实时报道的全球商业、金融和科技新闻中为您播报。《彭博商业周刊日报》由卡罗尔·马萨尔和蒂姆·斯滕诺维克主持，在彭博广播、电视及彭博原创内容上直播。卡罗尔：在彭博各平台上，我是卡罗尔·马萨尔，与——蒂姆本周缺席——幸运的是，丽莎·马特奥是今天下午加入我们的主持人之一。
LISA: IT IS GOOD TO BE HERE. WE HAVE A LOT GOING ON. CAROL: WE ARE 10 SECONDS AWAY. LET'S TALK TO MICHAEL MCKEE, HE IS OUTSIDE THE FEDERAL RESERVE. MICHAEL: THE DECISION TO RAISE INTEREST RATES AT THE SEPTEMBER MEETING WAS UNANIMOUS -- NOT JUST AMONG THE OPEN VOTING MEMBERS BUT ALL 19 MEMBERS SUPPORTED THE RATE MOVE. INFLATION REMAINED ELEVATED AND RISKS WERE TILTED TO THE UPSIDE WHILE THE LABOR MARKET APPEARED TO BE NEAR FULL EMPLOYMENT.
丽莎：很高兴来到这里。我们有很多事情要讨论。卡罗尔：还有10秒。让我们连线迈克尔·麦基，他正在美联储外面。迈克尔：9月会议加息的决定是全票通过的——不仅是公开投票的成员，所有19名成员都支持此次加息。通胀依然高企，上行风险占优，而劳动力市场似乎接近充分就业。
BASED ON THE OUTLOOK AND THE CHANGING BALANCE OF RISKS, ALL PARTICIPANTS DUE TO HIGHER TARGET RANGE FOR THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE AS APPROPRIATE. IT GOES ON TO SAY MANY PARTICIPANTS SET A HIGHER RATE PATH WOULD BE PRUDENT ON RISK MANAGEMENT GROUNDS THE NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS VIEWED A HIGHER PATH AS NECESSARY BASED ON THEIR OUTLOOKS RATHER THAN ON RISK MANAGEMENT GROUNDS. SOME'S ARE RAISING RATES AS A WAY TO PREVENT INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FROM BECOMING UNANCHORED WHILE OTHERS FELT HE WOULD KEEP INFLATION FROM BROADENING OUT.
基于前景和风险平衡的变化，所有参与者认为提高联邦基金利率目标区间是适当的。报告继续指出，出于风险管理考虑，许多参与者认为设定更高的利率路径将是审慎之举；另有部分参与者根据其前景而非风险管理理由，认为更高的利率路径是必要的。一些人通过加息来防止通胀预期脱锚，而另一些人则认为这有助于防止通胀蔓延。
MANY NOTED FINANCIAL CONDITIONS APPEARED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SEVERAL NOTED THEY VIEW THE CURRENT POLICY RATE AS NOT RESTRICTIVE OR ONLY MILDLY RESTRICTIVE, WHICH LEADS US TO THE IMPORTANT QUOTE -- WITH REGARD TO THE OUTLOOK FOR MONETARY POLICY BEYOND THE MEETING, MOST PARTICIPANTS ASSESSED ANOTHER INCREASE IN THE TARGET RATE WOULD LIKELY BE APPROPRIATE BY YEAR END. PARTICIPANTS SAW THE ECONOMY EXPANDING AT A SOLID PACE DRIVEN BY ROBUST BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND RESILIENT CONSUMER SPENDING.
许多人指出，金融状况似乎有利于经济增长，且有几人表示他们认为当前政策利率不具有限制性或仅具有轻微限制性，这引出了重要的引述——关于会议之后的货币政策前景，大多数参与者评估认为，到年底前再次提高目标利率可能是适当的。参与者们看到经济在强劲的商业投资和坚韧的消费者支出的推动下以稳健的步伐扩张。
ONE NEGATIVE, AGRICULTURE STRAINED BECAUSE OF WORSENING DROUGHT AND HIGHER PRICES FOR DIESEL. THE K-SHAPED ECONOMY CAME IN FOR A MENTION. SOME PARTICIPANTS OBSERVED THE STRONG DEMAND FOR SKILLED WORKERS IN SECTORS FOR THE AI BUILDOUT HAD BEEN DRIVING STRONG WAGE GAINS. ALL OF THIS WAS THREE WEEKS AGO, IT UNDERSCORES RECENT COMMENTS BY THE SENIOR OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE OFFICIALS ABOUT NOT MOVING OCTOBER 28 DOES NOT MEAN THEY WILL NOT MOVE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.
一个负面因素是，由于干旱加剧和柴油价格上涨，农业承压。K型经济被提及。一些参与者观察到，AI建设领域对熟练工人的强劲需求推动了工资的显著增长。这一切发生在三周前，这凸显了高级公开市场委员会官员最近的评论：10月28日不采取行动并不意味着他们在年底前不会采取行动。
GOING INTO THE NEXT SET OF MEETINGS IT LOOKS LIKE TO HAVE AT LEAST ONE MORE ON THE BOOKS. CAROL: THIS IS WHAT THE INVESTORS WERE LOOKING FOR. I WANT TO DO A QUICK CHECK ON THE MARKETS. NOT MUCH MOVEMENT -- MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF A TILT TO THE DOWNSIDE BUT NOT REALLY. S&P WAS DOWN IN 19. NASDAQ 100 WAS DOWN 116. IT IS STILL DOWN 113. YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE YIELD CURVE. IN TERMS OF TREASURIES AND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WE HAVE SEEN THEM BACK OFF THEIR HIGHS, THE 10-YEAR NOTE WHICH WAS AT 5.28%, THAT IS WHERE WE FIND IT.
即将进入下一组会议，看起来日程上至少还有一场。卡罗尔：这正是投资者所期待的。我想快速查看一下市场情况。波动不大——或许道琼斯指数略有下行倾向，但并非如此明显。标普500下跌19点。纳斯达克100下跌116点。目前仍下跌113点。你需要关注收益率曲线。就国债而言，整个上午我们看到它们从高点回落，10年期国债收益率此前为5.28%，目前我们找到的位置就在这里。
NO CHANGES ON THE TWO. SAME STORY FOR THE FIVE-YEAR. NOT INTERESTING. I DO NOT KNOW WHAT WE SAY. WE THOUGHT THIS WOULD BE STALE BECAUSE OF SOME NEW DATA BUT IT DOES SOUND LIKE IT IS PRETTY IMPORTANT THAT WE NOW HAVE AN INDICATION FROM THE FED THAT THEY ARE THINKING WE NEED ONE MORE RATE INCREASE. MICHAEL: DEFINITELY. THAT COMES OUT IN THE MINUTES. ALL 19 PARTICIPANTS AGREED WITH THE RATE HIKE, EVEN PEOPLE WHO MIGHT HAVE BEEN DOVISH BUT NOT VOTING, SUGGEST THEY DO SEE AS A UNIT THE NEED FOR HIGHER RATES.
两点没有变化。五年期国债也是同样的故事。没什么意思。我不知道该说什么。我们原本以为这会因一些新数据而变得陈旧，但现在听起来美联储发出的信号相当重要，他们认为我们需要再加息一次。迈克尔：确实。这一点体现在会议纪要中。所有19名参与者都同意加息，即使是那些可能持鸽派立场但未参与投票的人也表示，作为一个整体，他们看到了提高利率的必要性。
THEY SAW A NEED FOR HIGHER RATES BY THE END OF THE YEAR. WE HAVE HEARD FROM JOHN WILLIAMS AND PHILIP JEFFERSON SUGGESTING THAT MAYBE NOT AT THE OCTOBER MEETING -- A LOT OF THAT DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CPI REPORT NEXT WEDNESDAY -- IT DOES LOOK LIKE UNLESS THERE IS A SURPRISE DOWNWARD MOVE IN INFLATION THAT THEY ARE TEEING UP FOR A DECEMBER 9 MOVE. LISA: THE DOMINANT EXPLANATION FOR THE HIGHER RATES, IS THAT STILL INFLATION OR HAS IT SHIFTED TO LABOR MARKET DATA?
他们认为到年底前需要提高利率。我们从约翰·威廉姆斯和菲利普·杰斐逊那里听到暗示，也许不是在10月的会议上——这在很大程度上取决于下周三消费者物价指数（CPI）报告的情况——除非通胀出现意外的下行变动，否则他们似乎正在为12月9日的行动做准备。丽莎：关于提高利率的主要解释，仍然是通胀问题，还是已经转向劳动力市场数据？
MICHAEL: IT IS INFLATION. LABOR MARKET DATA IS NOT MOVING UP MUCH IN THE AGGREGATE. IT IS NOT PRODUCE ANY WAGE PRESSURE. THE INFLATION NUMBERS, THAT GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION, WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE AI BUILDOUT AND THAT IS PUSHING UP PRICES -- SERVICE INDUSTRY PRICES WERE STILL ELEVATED. ALL OF THAT TOGETHER SUGGESTS THEY ARE NOT MAKING ENOUGH PROGRESS ON INFLATION. IT COMES DOWN TO WHAT THEY THINK THE NEW FLOOR RATE IS AND IN THE SAP THEY THOUGHT THE NEUTRAL RATE MOVED UP AND THAT INCLUDES HIGHER INTEREST RATES.
迈克尔：是通胀问题。劳动力市场数据在总体层面并没有大幅上升。这并未产生工资压力。通胀数据、地缘政治局势、人工智能建设进展以及由此推高的价格——服务业价格仍然居高不下。所有这些加在一起表明，他们在抑制通胀方面取得的进展不够。关键在于他们认为的新利率下限是多少，在SEP（经济预测摘要）中，他们认为中性利率有所上升，其中包括更高的利率。
THEY ARE COMFORTABLE WITH WHERE THEY ARE NOW BUT THINK THEY MIGHT NEED TO DO MORE TO KEEP INFLATION ON A DOWNWARD PATH. CAROL: CHAIRMAN KEVIN WARSH TOLD REPORTERS FOLLOWING THE SEPTEMBER 16 DECISION IT WAS AIMED AT REMOVING A DOSE OF ACCOMMODATION. WE HAVE TWO MORE MEETINGS. IS IT SAFE TO SAY KEVIN WARSH IS TRULY LOOKING AT THE DATA AND THERE IS NOTHING POLITICAL HERE BASED ON WHAT WE ARE CLEANING FROM SOME OF THE MINUTES?
他们对目前的状况感到满意，但认为可能需要采取更多措施以保持通胀下行趋势。卡罗尔：主席凯文·沃什在9月16日决策后告诉记者，此举旨在减少一定程度的宽松政策。我们还有两次会议。根据我们从部分会议纪要中整理出的信息，说凯文·沃什确实在看数据，这里没有任何政治因素，这样说安全吗？
MICHAEL: ABSOLUTELY. IT LOOKS LIKE KEVIN WARSH HAS GONE BACK TO HIS OLD, NORMAL SELF, TO STEAL A LINE. HE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A HAWK AND SEES THE PROBLEM AS NEEDING HIGHER RATES. IT IS WHAT HE SAID AT THE NEWS CONFERENCE. HE IS SPEAKING NEXT WEEK SO WE MIGHT GET A REAFFIRMATION OF THAT. I HAVE TALKED TO SEVERAL FED OFFICIALS WHO ARGUE THE ELECTION DOES NOT PLAY A ROLE. IT WOULD BE EASIER FOR THEM NOT TO RAISE RATES RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION, IF THEY CAN AVOID IT AND THEY DO NOT HAVE TO GET CAUGHT UP IN ALL THE POLITICS ABOUT IT.
迈克尔：绝对如此。借用一句话来说，凯文·沃什似乎回到了他以往正常、一贯的状态。他一直属于鹰派，认为问题在于需要提高利率。他在新闻发布会上就是这样说的。他下周还将发言，我们可能会因此得到重申。我与几位美联储官员交谈过，他们认为选举不起作用。如果他们能避免的话，在选举前不加息会更容易，而且他们不必卷入与此相关的所有政治纷争中。
IF WE GET A REASONABLE CPI AND PPI REPORT NEXT WEEK THEY CAN FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE IDEA THEY WILL NOT MOVE AT THIS MEETING BUT THEY STILL SEE INFLATION PRESSURE STRONG ENOUGH THAT THE NEED TO RAISE RATES ONE MORE TIME BY THE END OF THE YEAR. CAROL: YOU ARE TALKING TO FED OFFICIALS -- YOU ARE ALWAYS TALKING TO FED OFFICIALS -- YOU ARE WORKING ON THINGS FOR WALL STREET WEEK AND OTHER PARTS OF THE BLOOMBERG UNIVERSE, BUT I'M CURIOUS, DOES IT FEEL LIKE FED OFFICIALS ARE MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE OUTLOOK IN TERMS OF GROWTH AND NOT WORRYING ABOUT THE RATE INCREASES SLOWING DOWN GROWTH OR CREATING PROBLEMS WITH EQUITY VALUATIONS WERE OTHER PARTS OF THE MARKET?
如果我们下周收到合理的消费者价格指数（CPI）和生产者价格指数（PPI）报告，他们可以贯彻在此次会议上不采取行动的想法，但他们仍然认为通胀压力足够强劲，需要在年底前再加息一次。卡罗尔：你在与美联储官员交谈——你总是与美联储官员交谈——你正在为《华尔街周报》和彭博其他部分工作，但我很好奇，你是否感觉美联储官员对增长前景更加乐观，并且不太担心加息会减缓增长或在市场其他部分造成股权估值问题？
HIGHER RATES, IT TAKES TIME FOR THEM TO BE FELT BUT I CAN CREATE SOME SLOWDOWNS LONGER-TERM. MICHAEL: THEY ARE LOOKING SIX MONTHS, EIGHT MONTHS, 12 MONTHS OUT IN TERMS OF WHEN THE RATE MOVES WILL HIT THE ECONOMY BUT THEY DO NOT SEEM TO BE WORRIED ABOUT IT HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE STOCK MARKET OR ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. THEY NOTE THAT CREDIT REMAINS WIDELY AVAILABLE AND SPREADS ARE TIGHT. EVEN WITH THE AI BUILDOUT THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A PROBLEM WITH PEOPLE GETTING LOANS.
更高的利率，它们需要时间才能被感受到，但我可以创造一些长期的放缓。迈克尔：他们在看六个月、八个月、十二个月后利率变动何时会对经济产生影响，但他们似乎并不担心这会对股市或经济活动产生任何影响。他们指出信贷依然广泛可得且利差狭窄。即使在人工智能建设热潮下，人们获得贷款似乎也没有出现问题。
THEY DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT OVERALL ON THE OUTLOOK FOR CONTINUED GROWTH. THE QUESTION IS, HOW HIGH WITH A HAVE TO GO TO HAVE SOME SORT OF IMPACT, AND WHAT SORT OF IMPACT ARE THEY LOOKING FOR? NORMALLY RAISE RATES TO CRIMP DEMAND AND WORKERS GET LET GO AND THE ECONOMY SLOWS DOWN. WE ARE SEEING WHAT SOME FED OFFICIALS HAVE SAID TO BE IS INCREMENTALLY INCREASED DEMAND FOR WORKERS. WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY REAL SLOW DOWN ON BUSINESS ACTIVITY, BUSINESS INVESTMENT REMAINS A STRONG.
它们似乎并未对持续增长的前景产生整体影响。问题是，我们需要提高到什么程度才会产生某种影响，以及他们期望看到什么样的影响？通常提高利率是为了抑制需求，工人被解雇，经济放缓。我们看到的是，正如一些美联储官员所说，对工人的需求是逐步增加的。我们没有看到商业活动的任何真正放缓，商业投资依然强劲。
DO THEY HAVE TO PUSH IT FURTHER? THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE WATCHING AS THE NUMBERS COME OUT. CAROL: I WE APPRECIATE YOU BREAKING DOWN THE MINUTES FOR US. THAT IS OUR MICHAEL MCKEE, CORRESPONDENT OUTSIDE THE FEDERAL RESERVE IN WASHINGTON, D.C. THE FED IS A TOP FOCUS FOR INVESTORS AND WE WILL TALK TO JEFF ROSENBERG OF BLACK ROCK DURING THE 4:00 HOUR, SO WE WILL DIG EVEN DEEPER INTO THIS. THE OTHER THING CONSTANTLY ON THE MIND OF INVESTORS IS GEOPOLITICS, PARTICULARLY THE MIDDLE EAST.
他们是否必须进一步施压？随着数据的公布，这将是人们关注的焦点。卡罗尔：感谢您为我们详细解读会议纪要。我们是迈克尔·麦基，驻华盛顿特区美联储的记者。美联储是投资者关注的重点，我们将在4:00时段与贝莱德的杰夫·罗森伯格交谈，因此我们将更深入地探讨这一问题。投资者心中另一个持续关注的焦点是地缘政治，特别是中东局势。
WE SAW A CHOPPY SESSION WITH OIL. VESSELS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AGAINST RESILIENT FLOWS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST. YEMEN'S GOVERNMENT BACKED BY SAUDI ARABIA CLAIMING TO HAVE REGAINED TERRITORY FROM THE HOUTHIS. IT IS ONGOING. ON VERY CURIOUS ABOUT THE U.S.'S ROLE IN ALL OF THIS. LISA: WE WANT TO BRING IN HER, THIS IS -- JENNIFER WELCH. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. IT IS ABOUT THE U.S. WAR
我们看到了原油市场的波动局面。霍尔木兹海峡的船只流动受到中东地区强劲供应的影响。沙特阿拉伯支持的也门政府声称已从胡塞武装手中夺回领土。局势仍在持续。我们对美国在此事中的角色非常好奇。丽莎：我们要请出这位嘉宾——珍妮弗·韦尔奇。感谢您的参与。这与美国的战争有关
更进一步：量化金融体系
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