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30年期市政债收益率创2011年以来新高,发行方推迟融资

Muni 30-Year Yield Highest Since at Least 2011

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市政债收益率触及多年高点直接影响固定收益资产配置与定价逻辑,且发行端大规模推迟融资显示流动性压力传导至实体,建议关注美债曲线对信用利差的溢出效应。

Recent painful sell off has driven the rate on benchmark thirty year municipal yields to its highest level since at least 2011. Here to report is Bloomberg's Aashna Shah in New York and Shruti Singh in Chicago. Aashna, we're gonna start with you. Just give us the backdrop broadly of how the muni bond market is reacting to these higher bond yields. Yeah. I mean, today, we're seeing a little bit of relief in the market.

近期痛苦的抛售已将基准30年期市政债券收益率推升至至少2011年以来的最高水平。彭博社的Aashna Shah在纽约和Shruti Singh在芝加哥为您报道。Aashna,我们先从你开始。请大致为我们介绍一下市政债券市场如何应对这些更高的债券收益率。是的。我的意思是,今天我们在市场上看到了一些缓解的迹象。

We're seeing, yields down seven basis points as of 12PM. But for the past weeks, we've been contending with some pretty high yields. I mean, like you mentioned the most since, 2011 at least. And this has created a really interesting dynamic in the market because from the investor perspective, from people I've been talking to, they're saying that these higher yields are creating a buying opportunity for people who might be waiting to get into the muni market.

截至中午12点,我们看到收益率下降了7个基点。但在过去几周里,我们一直在应对相当高的收益率。就像你提到的那样,至少是自2011年以来最高的。这在市场中创造了一种非常有趣的动态,因为从投资者的角度来看,从我交谈过的人那里得知,他们说这些较高的收益率为那些可能等待进入市政债券市场的人创造了买入机会。

It's creating an opportunity for investors to tax loss harvest. Some people are saying this is... You know, investors are also just spooked by the sell off, which is why we saw earlier this week the biggest day of trading in the muni market in almost over thirty years. But then on the flip end of it, you have the issuers as well who are contending with a tougher market environment. Yeah. Shruti, what are you seeing from your end?

它为投资者创造了税务亏损收割的机会。有些人说……你知道,投资者也被这次抛售吓到了,这就是为什么本周早些时候我们看到市政债券市场近三十多年来交易量最大的一天。但另一方面,发行人也在应对更艰难的市场环境。是的。Shruti,你在你的那边看到了什么?

Because your reporting shows that we are still seeing some deals get done, specifically in Chicago. Yeah. So in terms of the issuer, standpoint, we're talking about state and local governments that are borrowing money. So the last couple of days, Aashna and I have been talking to a lot of people who, have seen that deals have gotten pulled. Right? And so what does that mean? That they are, waiting until there's a a more, lucrative market for them because when the yields are going up, that just means that state and local borrowing costs are going up.

因为你的报道显示我们仍然看到一些交易达成,特别是在芝加哥。是的。所以从发行人的角度来看,我们谈论的是借钱的地方和州政府。所以在过去的几天里,Aashna和我与很多人交谈,他们看到交易被撤回了。对吧?那这意味着什么呢?这意味着他们在等待一个更有利可图的市场,因为当收益率上升时,这意味着州和地方政府的借贷成本也在上升。

So we've seen some deals being put on day to day, which just means that we're watching day to day to see when those deals come to market. Yeah. Aashna, tell us about some of the deals that you've been watching and just how the activity compares with what you would typically see in maybe a lower rate regime. Yeah. We've been dealing with a very high calendar volume in the muni, you know, the muni world. Lots of supply coming into the market, and a lot of the issuers who are planning to come to market this week, they're coming across this really tough market environment.

所以我们看到一些交易每天都在进行,这仅仅意味着我们在密切关注每天的情况,看看这些交易何时进入市场。是的。Aashna,告诉我们一些你正在关注的交易,以及这些活动与你通常在较低利率环境下看到的相比如何。是的。我们在市政债券领域经历了非常高的日历量,大量的供应进入市场,许多计划本周进入市场的发行人正面临这个非常艰难的市场环境。

So we reported on deals coming out of Los Angeles. That was about $1,800,000,000 convention center deal. We reported on, a toll road in Texas, some stuff in New Jersey. And so all of these deals were put on pause because these issuers are waiting for better market conditions and to come back hopefully. So like Shruti said, we're watching these day to day, seeing, you know, what happens. We saw a deal that was put on pause in Nashville, come back to the market yesterday that we reported on.

因此我们报道了来自洛杉矶的交易。那是一笔价值约18亿美元的会展中心交易。我们还报道了德克萨斯州的一条收费公路、新泽西州的一些项目。所有这些交易都因发行人等待更好的市场条件而暂停,希望未来能恢复。正如Shruti所说,我们每天都在密切关注这些情况,看看会发生什么。我们看到一笔在纳什维尔暂停的交易昨天重返市场,我们也对此进行了报道。

So we'll be monitoring these deals to see what happens next. And then, Aashna, when you talk to the portfolio managers, the investors, what's the general consensus? Do they expect that these rates are going to continue to move higher? And if so, why get in now versus maybe just waiting until you can get an even juicier return? Yeah. So people we've been talking to have been saying that this is the cheapest, and our data shows the same thing.

因此我们将继续监控这些交易,看看接下来会发生什么。然后,Aashna,当你与投资组合经理和投资者交谈时,普遍的看法是什么?他们是否预期这些利率将继续走高?如果是这样,为什么现在就要入场,而不是等到能获得更高回报的时候再介入?是的。所以我们一直在交谈的人都说这是最便宜的,我们的数据也显示同样的情况。

This is the cheapest munis have looked in a really long time. So investors are saying, this is why it's a great time to get in. It's a buying opportunity for investors who might be waiting. But at the same time, some people we talked to yesterday were saying, this might be... You know, the muni market might have sold off a little bit too much, and now we're seeing yields come down. We're seeing a little bit of correction in the market.

市政债券(munis)已经很久没有这么便宜了。所以投资者说,现在是入场的绝佳时机。对于可能一直在观望的投资者来说,这是一个买入机会。但与此同时,我们昨天与一些人交谈时,他们说这可能……你知道,市政债券市场可能抛售得有点过头了,现在我们看到收益率开始下降。我们观察到市场出现了一些回调。

So we'll be keeping a close eye talking to investors, talking to portfolio managers on what's gonna happen in the coming days. Shruti, I have to ask you about, this parking meter operation sale because it's so wonderful to see the different kinds of financings that we see in the muni bond market. Just give us the breakdown of what your reporting told us. Yeah. Sure. So city council here in Chicago earlier this week had a vote that was highly watched and, fairly controversial here in Chicago.

因此我们将密切关注,并与投资者和投资组合经理交谈,了解未来几天会发生什么。Shruti,我必须问你关于这个停车收费表运营出售的事情,因为看到市政债券市场中各种各样的融资方式真是太棒了。请给我们一个你报道内容的详细分解。好的。当然。芝加哥市议会本周早些时候进行了一项备受瞩目且在当地颇具争议性的投票。

This decision actually, is rooted in a lease that, mayor Daley had originated in 2008 when the city of Chicago was facing dire financial situations, and they leased the... About 36,000 parking meters here in Chicago for about seventy five years. Now the city council doesn't necessarily have a say in the contract negotiations once that lease was, sold. But something came up this past year where the lease was gonna be transferred from a Morgan Stanley led consortium to another investor group.

这一决定实际上源于Daley市长在2008年发起的一项租赁协议,当时芝加哥市面临严峻的财政状况,他们将……芝加哥市内大约36,000个停车收费表出租了约75年。现在,一旦该租赁合同被出售,市议会不会对合同谈判有发言权。但在过去一年里发生了一件事,即该租赁权将从由摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)领导的财团转让给另一个投资者集团。

And so the city council saw this as an opening to make, as many of them have said, lemonade out of lemon. So they have asked and did receive some financial, incentives for their approval. And so the... This particular vote was earlier this week, and it passed about 46 to three. After months of negotiations and months of delays, the city council has negotiated where the city is gonna get a $75,000,000 upfront payment and some cuts going into the future if another deal happens where this asset is sold and some profit sharing going into the future.

因此,市议会将其视为一个契机,正如许多人所说,要变柠檬为柠檬水。他们提出请求并获得了部分财政激励以批准该提案。此次特定投票于本周早些时候进行,最终以46票对3票通过。经过数月的谈判和延误,市议会已达成协议:市政府将获得75,000,000美元的预付款,若未来发生涉及该资产出售的另一笔交易,还将获得一些削减款项以及未来的利润分成。

This money is intended to go towards the very un... Underfunded pensions here in the city of Chicago.

这笔资金旨在用于芝加哥市内严重不足、资金匮乏的养老金体系。

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