G7释放1亿桶战略石油储备以缓解油价

Joining us now from Dubai, our Mideast energy correspondent, Di Paola. Anthony, I was reading, about a couple things this morning. First, I wanna start with how big of an impact do we really think this release, this 100,000,000 barrels release is gonna make on markets overall? Is it just gonna be a temporary, or do you think in the aggregate we're even gonna see a major impact? Big impact in prices because those prices did tumble on Friday when that release was announced.

But as you say, it's likely to be be a temporary impact because this is a stock. So once that stock is put into the market and used, that stock is exhausted. At some point, it needs to be replenished, which means more buying. Also, as does happen, with stocks, you know, this is a market, so we do see prices go down when we have, announces of announcements of new releases. And then as soon as we get those releases, the traders and the investors will start looking at, what else is in the stockpiles and how much is there that can be released in case of of an emergency.

So once we start getting people nervous about the risk of an emergency and they look at stockpiles that have been depleted, then that starts to edge the prices back up. Of course, we can look at this in a political context. So this is gonna be a temporary issue that needs to be temporary through the first week of November. That's when those midterms are. We've seen the impact of this on US diesel prices, which seems to be very forefront in the mind of of president Trump when he was talking about a potential US diesel ban, which he says The US is no longer gonna do because of this g seven release.

So it's really that immediate term decrease in pump prices in The US that is... That that that seems to be the focus at least of Donald Trump's interest in this, whereas the Europeans were willing to avoid exactly that that diesel ban. So so there will be this transitory impact. As you said earlier, in the run up, it is the issue of refineries and the and the ability to get enough of that diesel to market that is driving up the prices.

That's not going away. That will be an issue as we come particularly into winter months in, The US and Europe where that diesel is gonna be needed. So that's the picture that we're looking at there, Christina. Anthony, what do we know about China's appetite for for oil at this point in time? You know, talking to Fraher a few months ago, he said that was, of course, the surprise, after this war began. The the demand from China that was less, I think, than a lot of people feared, it it might be.

What do we know about that appetite today and how that's affecting kind of the global oil market at this time? That's a key question for a lot of the traders in the market because one of the things that they are focusing on when they're looking at oil prices, when they're looking at demand, is when does China resume buying the way that they were buying before? China had been supporting oil prices really going up, into the start of this year.

If you remember at the end of last year, we were talking about this year being a year of glut when there was gonna be too much oil on the on the market, and that was gonna bring prices down. But it was that, buying by China for their strategic supplies that was really keeping the price, supported. They stopped that, and that's been one of the issues that, as you mentioned, that b roll was was talking about that allowed prices not to skyrocket during this crisis because China really pulled back on its purchases.

And so we're gonna be looking to see when do they resume. Maybe they don't resume at the same pace as they did before. Maybe they come in a little bit more slowly, but we have already seen some, refinery releases from China. They have a government control system about what refineries can release into the market, what they can sell. They've kept a lot of the fuel at home. During this this crisis, they've they've announced moves to release some, but not also.

Really, we're watching the interplay there between what the Chinese refineries do, what they release onto the market, which would ease that diesel prices as we mentioned before, and what they do in terms of the stock buying, which would have a big impact on the crude prices going forward. So those are the the the big questions that we're watching there in terms of the China policy, David. We're also, of course, tracking something David mentioned at the top, which is, the ongoing battle between the Houthis and Saudi.

There are reports that the Houthis targeted a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh and that Saudi may be planning a new offense a new offensive into Yemen to try to maintain or regain control of the Red Sea. What are fluctuations on that side of that peninsula mean for oil going forward? Could this make things even worse? Yeah. I mean, that's a situation that's been going back and forth over the over the past month or you might say over the past several years since that conflict has been in the case, we...

In course. But we had seen a ceasefire between the Saudis, between the Houthis that kept things relatively quiet through this war so we didn't have to worry about the Red Sea. The Red Sea was a big export valve and a relief valve for markets for the Saudis able to get crude into global markets via the Red Sea and the ports there, as well as that coast for the Saudis has a lot of refineries that are export oriented, that produce a lot of diesel that they've been shipping into Europe, into global markets from there.

The interruptions over the last month have been a big issue for markets because we have seen refiners from Asia having to take a much longer route around the Cape Of Good Hope, around Africa to get up to the Mediterranean Coast or even into the Red Sea from the North to pick up oil. So that's been a delay. Mhmm. We've seen interruptions to shipments out of those refineries, out of the Port Of Yanbu. And then, of course, we had the East West pipeline, a major infrastructure that was knocked offline briefly.

We have reported during the last week, that that was, coming back to, pumping oil and had reached about 80%, capacity as of about Friday. So that was coming back adding some some good supplies to the market. At the same time, the Saudis and other Gulf producers have really been ramping up their exports through Hormuz as they're able to get some of those vessels through that contested strait. So that's brought actual oil exports back really close to prewar levels.

But then we still have, again, that that restriction of the refineries able to to transform that crude into the into the fuel that we need. So that's the restriction that we're having in the market and why that's keeping those prices high for the fuels. In terms of crude, we are seeing continued attacks on vessels trying to pass through Hormuz. So that remains an active part of this war, and that remains an active risk for shippers going through this.

We've got those two risks together. Hormuz on the exit out of the out of the Persian Gulf Yep. And that Bab El Mandeb straight at the South of the Red Sea, which as you said, we're seeing those reports that the Saudis, or Saudi backed, Yemen troops, Yemeni troops will be trying to take that back from those Houthi rebels. At the same time as the Houthis continue to claim strikes within Saudi Arabia. You mentioned that claim strike, on the Riyadh refinery, over the weekend.

So we are following that and trying to see what the impacts of those are as we watch for also potential further risks coming down the line there. So that's really the the the issue there, and this is looking like something that's gonna continue to impact the markets, Christina.