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美国9月非农不及预期,美股上涨债市走高,油价维持高位

Trump Seeks To Jolt GOP

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非农数据落地引发股债联动反应,叠加G7释油与AI巨头融资动态,宏观变量交织影响资产定价,建议关注后续利率预期变化。

LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER." JOE: PRESIDENT TRUMP HIS MESSAGE ON THE ROAD AS THE JOB MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKNESS. WELCOME TO THE FRIDAY EDITION. I SOFTER THAN EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT REPORT LIGHTS UP WALL STREET TODAY BUT BRINGS WORRIES ABOUT WAGES. I'M JOE MATHIEU ALONGSIDE KAILEY LEINZ. HAPPY JOBS DAY. THE PRESIDENT TALKING AFFORDABILITY ON THE ROAD. HE IS GOING TO ALABAMA AS WE LEARN WAGES ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP WITH INFLATION.

华盛顿特区现场直播,这里是“权力平衡”。乔:特朗普总统在就业市场显现疲软迹象之际发表其道路上的信息。欢迎收看周五版。比预期更温和的就业报告今天点燃了华尔街,但也引发了对工资的担忧。我是乔·马修,与凯莉·莱因茨在一起。祝你们就业日快乐。总统在路上谈论可负担性。他正前往阿拉巴马州,因为我们了解到工资仍在努力跟上通货膨胀的步伐。

KAILEY: WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL MONTHS IN A ROW NOW OF WAGE NEEDS NOT KEEPING PACE WITH ELEVATED PRICES. THAT PERHAPS POINTS TO THE AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS THAT VOTERS CONSISTENTLY SAY ARE TOP OF MIND AS THEY GET READY TO GO TO THE POLLS IN JUST 4.5 WEEKS FROM NOW, MAYBE LESS. PRETTY STRIKING TO SEE THE HEADLINE FIGURES IN THE PAYROLLS PRINT. 29,000 IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, PLUS DOWNWARD REVISIONS. UNEMPLOYMENT WENT HIGHER WHICH MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH MORE PEOPLE PARTICIPATING IN THE LABOR MARKET.

凯莉:我们已经连续几个月看到工资增长未能跟上高企的价格。这或许指向了选民一致表示的、在他们准备在4.5周后(甚至更少)投票时最关心的问题——可负担性。看到 payroll 数据中的头条数字相当引人注目。9月份为29,000,加上向下修正。失业率上升,这可能与更多人参与劳动力市场有关。

JOE: WALL STREET CELEBRATING THIS BECAUSE IT MIGHT MEAN MAY BE A BREAK ON INTEREST RATE HIKES. I DON'T KNOW IF WE WILL PUT THAT TOGETHER WHEN WE TALK TO KATIE RICHARDS. WE SAW AN IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN TREASURY YIELDS WHAT THEY ARE BACK ON THE RISE TODAY SO IT SEEMS TO BE A TENTATIVE REACTION AT BEST. KAILEY: UP ANOTHER THREE BASIS POINTS ON THE 10 YEAR. 5.27%. USUALLY WE WOULD LEAVE THAT UP TO CHARLIE. I DON'T HAVE TO QUOTE THE MARKETS BECAUSE CHARLIE -- AMY MORRIS IN THIS CASE WILL DO IT FOR US.

乔:华尔街为此庆祝,因为这可能意味着利率加息会有所放缓。我不确定当我们与凯蒂·理查兹交谈时是否会将其联系起来。我们看到国债收益率立即下降,但它们今天又回升了,所以看起来最多是一种谨慎的反应。凯莉:10年期收益率又上升了3个基点,达到5.27%。通常我们会把这个交给查理。我不需要引用市场数据,因为查理——在这种情况下是艾米·莫里斯会为我们做这件事。

SHE IS HERE IN WASHINGTON. AMY: THANK YOU. YOU ARE RIGHT. THE SHARP SLOWDOWN IN U.S. JOBS MARKETS DRIVING STOCKS HIGHER. BOND YIELDS DID FALL. THEY ARE HIGHER NOW BECAUSE THERE WAS SPECULATION THE FED WOULD NOT BE FORCED TO RAISE INTEREST RATES ANYTIME SOON. WE CHECK MARKETS FOR YOU ALL DAY LONG. THE S&P 500 UP .75%. RUSSELL 2000 INDEX UP AROUND 1%. THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS HIGHER, NOW AT 5.27%. TWO YEAR YIELD AT 4.8%.

她就在华盛顿。艾米:谢谢。你说得对。美国就业市场急剧放缓推动股市上涨。债券收益率确实下降了,但现在更高了,因为有 speculation 认为美联储不会被迫很快提高利率。我们整天都在为您检查市场。标普500指数上涨0.75%。罗素2000指数上涨约1%。10年期国债收益率更高,现在为5.27%。2年期收益率为4.8%。

THE 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELDS MOVING HIGHER AT 5.62%. WE HAVE BEEN TELLING YOU THAT G7 NATIONS ARE SET TO RELEASE AS MUCH AS 100 MILLION BARRELS OF EMERGENCY OIL TO HELP TRIGGER A DROP IN FUEL PRICES. IT SEEMS TO HAVE AN EFFECT FOR A MINUTE. THAT IS OVER NOW. BRENT CRUDE IS ABOUT .1% HIGHER, TOPIPING $102 A BARREL. WTI CRUDE IS STILL A LITTLE LOWER, RIGHT AT $91 A BARREL. DIESEL AVERAGING $6.37. BROADCOM STARTING TO GATHER SOME $60 BILLION OF FRESH AI CHIP FINANCING TO BENEFIT ANTHROPIC AND OTHER COMPANIES.

30年期国债收益率上升至5.62%。我们一直在告诉您,七国集团即将释放多达1亿桶紧急石油以帮助触发燃料价格下跌。这似乎在一分钟内产生了影响。那已经过去了。布伦特原油略高0.1%,突破每桶102美元。WTI原油仍然略低,正好在每桶91美元。柴油平均价格为6.37美元。博通开始筹集600亿美元的新的AI芯片融资,以惠及Anthropic和其他公司。

WALL STREET AND SILICON VALLEY ARE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY. THEY WANT SOME REASSURANCE THAT INVESTORS ARE STILL WILLING AND ABLE TO BACK AI'S BUILD OUT EVEN WITH A PUBLIC BACKLASH AGAINST DATA CENTER CONSTRUCTION. BROADCOM SHARES MORE THAN 3% HIGHER. IT IS WORTH NOTING THIS FINANCE WILL ADD TO THE HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DEBT ALREADY RAISED TO BUILD OUT AI INFRASTRUCTURE. NVIDIA SHARES HIT THEIR FIRST RECORD IN MORE THAN FOUR MONTHS.

华尔街和硅谷正密切关注此事。他们希望得到一些 reassurance(保证),即投资者仍愿意且有能力支持人工智能的基础设施建设,尽管数据中心建设遭遇了公众的抵制。博通股价上涨超过3%。值得注意的是,这笔融资将叠加在已为构建AI基础设施而筹集的数千亿美元债务之上。英伟达股价创下四个月来的首次新高。

THAT RALLY RESULTS IN A MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF $5.7 TRILLION, CLOSE TO $6 TRILLION. THAT IS A LEVEL NO COMPANY HAS EVER SURPASSED. SHARES OF NVIDIA ABOUT 2% HIGHER. FOR ON-DEMAND NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY, SUBSCRIBE TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW OR EVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS. I'M AMY MORRIS. LET'S GET BACK TO BALANCE OF POWER WITH JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. KAILEY: AMY MORRIS WATCHING THE MARKETS FOR US. THANK YOU. THE MARKETS TAKING VERY LITTLE TIME TO REACT TO THE SOFTER THAN EXPECTED NONFARM PAYROLLS REPORT.

这一涨势使其市值达到5.7万亿美元,接近6万亿美元。这是任何公司都未曾超越的水平。英伟达股价上涨约2%。如需全天候即时新闻,请订阅Bloomberg News Now,或者收听您的播客。我是艾米·莫里斯。让我们回到乔·马修和凯莉·莱因兹主持的“权力平衡”节目。凯莉:艾米·莫里斯正在为我们关注市场动态。谢谢。市场对非农就业数据报告的反应时间非常短,该报告结果低于预期。

SOMEONE WHO SEEMS TO BE TAKING SOME TIME TO DIGEST THE FIGURES IS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, WHO HAS YET TO POST ANYTHING ON TRUTH SOCIAL PERTAINING TO THE LATEST ECONOMIC FIGURES. INSTEAD, THEY PERTAIN MORE TO THINGS LIKE DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME AND SPECIFICALLY GETTING RID OF IT WHICH HE WOULD LIKE THE SENATE TO VOTE ON AT THEIR EARLIEST CONVENIENCE. MAYBE WE WILL HEAR FROM THE PRESIDENT ABOUT THIS JOBS REPORT OR THE OVERALL STATE OF THE ECONOMY WHEN HE TAKES THE STAGE IN MOBILE, ALABAMA.

似乎花了一些时间来消化这些数据的是美国总统,他尚未在Truth Social上发布任何关于最新经济数据的帖子。相反,他的帖子更多涉及夏令时以及具体取消夏令时的问题,他希望参议院尽快对此进行投票。也许当他在阿拉巴马州莫比尔市登台发表演讲时,我们会听到总统关于这份就业报告或整体经济状况的看法。

WE DID HAVE A CHANCE TO HEAR FROM THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL DIRECTOR KEVIN HASSETT WHO JOINED OUR COLLEAGUES EARLIER TODAY AND CHARACTERIZE THE FIGURES THIS WAY.

我们确实有机会听到国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特的发言,他今天早些时候加入了我们的同事,并这样描述这些数据。

THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF NEWS THIS WEEK THAT HAS BEEN VERY POSITIVE. THE LAST JOBS REPORT HAS BEEN THROUGH THE ROOF. IYOU HAVE SLIGHTLY SMALLER NUMBERS. THIS JOBS REPORT WAS ABOUT AS EXPECTED BECAUSE ONE THING THAT MAYBE FOLKS HAVE NOT BEEN FACTORING IN IS WE PRODUCE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYE MENT BY 300,000 WORKERS. THE THING YOU AND I HAVE TALKED ABOUT FOR YEARS IS THE CONSTRUCTION, FACTORY CONSTRUCTION WORKERS WAS ABOUT UP 12,000 WHICH MEANS IT IS UP 112,000 SINCE PRESIDENT TRUMP TOOK OFFICE. 112,000 PEOPLE -- THAT IS ABOUT THE MICHIGAN FOOTBALL STADIUM.

本周有很多非常积极的新闻。上一份就业报告表现强劲得不得了。你们的数据略小一些。这份就业报告大致符合预期,因为人们可能没有考虑到的一点是,联邦政府雇用了30万名工人。多年来你我都谈论过的一个问题是,建筑业、工厂建筑业的工人数量增加了约1.2万,这意味着自特朗普总统上任以来,这一数字增加了11.2万。11.2万人——这大约相当于密歇根大学橄榄球体育场的容量。

THAT MANY PEOPLE ARE OUT THERE BUILDING FACTORIES TO CREATE FUTURE JOBS IN THE U.S. THAT IS ABOUT AS BULLISH OF A SIGN I HAVE SEEN FOR THE ECONOMY. JOE: KEEPING THAT STADIUM FULL OF JOBS IN MIND, WE GO TO THE NORTH LAWN OF THE WHITE HOUSE. STANDING IN THE SAME SPOT KEVIN HASSETT WAS THIS MORNING IS TYLER KENDALL. TYLER, THAT IS A REMARKABLE STATEMENT. THE MOST BULLISH I HAVE SEEN FOR THE ECONOMY SINCE I HAVE BEEN WATCHING IT?

有那么多人在那里建造工厂,为美国创造未来的就业机会。这是我见过的对经济最看涨的信号。乔:考虑到让体育场保持就业充足,我们来到白宫北草坪。凯文·哈塞特今天早上站过的地方,现在是泰勒·肯德尔站着的地方。泰勒,这是一个惊人的声明。自从我开始关注以来,这是我对经济最看涨的看法吗?

THAT IS THE BALANCE OF HIS CAREER. IS THAT THE STATEMENT FROM THE WHITE HOUSE TODAY? TYLER: AT THIS POINT, KEVIN HASSETT IS ONLY -- REALLY THE ONLY OFFICIAL WE'VE HEARD FROM. NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THIS IS A WHITE HOUSE THAT AT THE MOMENT IS TRYING TO CONVINCE THE AMERICAN PUBLIC TO FEEL GOOD ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND THEIR PROSPECTS GOING FORWARD AS WE GET CLOSER TO NOVEMBER AND THE COST OF LIVING REMAINS THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE FOR VOTERS.

这是他职业生涯的平衡点。这是白宫今天的声明吗?泰勒:到目前为止,凯文·哈塞特是唯一——真正是我们听到消息的唯一官员。这并不令人惊讶,因为考虑到这是一届白宫,目前正试图说服美国公众对经济和前景感到乐观,随着我们接近11月,生活成本仍然是选民的首要问题。

HE TOUTED CONSTRUCTION JOBS AS A WHOLE, POINTED TO OTHER POSITIVE DATA LIKE STRONG CONSUMER SPENDING WE GOT EARLIER THIS WEEK INSTEAD OF FOCUSING ON THE DOWNSIDE SURPRISE. OUR OWN ANALYST OF LUMBAR ECONOMICS TALK ABOUT HOW THERE ARE SWINGS BACK AND FORTH IN THE LABOR MARKET. THE THREE MONTH MOVING AVERAGE FOR PAYROLLS IS AT 50,000 WHICH REPRESENTS SOLID GROWTH BUT NOT HOT LIKE WE OFTEN HEAR FROM THE NEC DIRECTOR THERE.

他大肆宣扬整体建筑工作,并指出其他积极数据,如本周早些时候收到的强劲消费支出,而不是专注于负面惊喜。我们自己来自Lumbar Economics的分析师谈到劳动力市场如何来回波动。 payroll(工资单)的三个月移动平均值为50,000,这代表了稳健增长,但不像我们经常从NEC主任那里听到的那样火热。

TO YOUR POINT AT THE TOP OF THE PROGRAM, THIS IS CAUSING TRADERS TO PAIR THEIR BETS. THAT THERE WILL BE A RATE HIKE AT THE NEXT FOMC MEETING. THAT WILL BE SOMETHING PRESIDENT TRUMP VERY LIKELY WILL WEIGH IN ON CONSIDERING YESTERDAY, HE SPENT A LARGE PART OF THE DAY TALKING ABOUT THE FED CHAIR KEVIN HASSETT. AT FIRST, SAYING HE DISAGREED WITH HIS UNANIMOUS DECISION OF THE FOMC TO HIKE RATES. THEN, TEMPERING THOSE COMMENTS AND SAYING HE WANTS KEVIN WARSH TO DO WHATEVER HE WANTS TO DO.

回到节目开头的观点,这导致交易员配对他们的赌注。即在下次FOMC会议上会有加息。那将是特朗普总统很可能会介入考虑的事情。昨天,他花了大部分时间谈论美联储主席凯文·哈塞特。起初,他说他不同意FOMC一致决定加息。然后,缓和这些评论,并表示他希望凯文·沃什做任何他想做的事。

KAILEY: KEVIN WARSH, KEVIN HASSETT, TO KEY INDIVIDUALS. WE DID HEAR FROM KEVIN HASSETT ON THE JOBS REPORT BUT NOT THE PRESIDENT. WHAT WE'VE HEARD FROM THE PRESIDENT ABOUT POSTING ON TRUTH SOCIAL IS EUROPE AGREEING TO RELEASE STOCKPILED DIESEL AND OIL, SOME OF THE 100 MILLION BARRELS FOR DOES THIS FEND OFF A DIESEL EXPORT BAN IN THE U.S. THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN TEASING? TYLER: IT APPEARS THIS IS PART OF THE PRESSURE CAMPAIGN FROM THIS WHITE HOUSE.

凯莉:凯文·沃什、凯文·哈塞特,是关键人物。我们确实听到了凯文·哈塞特关于就业报告的发言,但没有听到总统的发言。我们从总统在Truth Social上发布的帖子中听到的是,欧洲同意释放储备的柴油和石油,其中一些是1亿桶,这是否能阻止美国总统一直在暗示的美国柴油出口禁令?泰勒:看来这是本届白宫施压运动的一部分。

WE FIRST REPORTED THIS WAS HAPPENING PRIVATELY BEHIND THE SCENES BUT THEN OFFICIALS WERE COMING OUT PUBLICLY SAYING THEY WANTED TO WORK WITH OUR EUROPEAN ALLIES TO GET MORE SUPPLY TO MARKET. THIS IS 100 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL AND DIESEL RESERVES, AMONG THE G7 COUNTRIES. WE SHOULD SAY BACK IN MARCH, THERE WAS A COORDINATED RELEASE AMONG THE 32 COUNTRIES THAT ARE PART OF THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY FOR 400 MILLION BARRELS.

我们最初私下报告了这一情况,但随后官员们公开表示,他们希望与我们的欧洲盟友合作,向市场提供更多供应。这是七国集团国家中1亿桶的石油和柴油储备。我们应该提到,今年3月,作为国际能源署成员的32个国家曾协调释放了4亿桶储备。

WE HEARD FROM THE IEA DIRECTOR THAT ONLY A THIRD OF THAT HAS ACTUALLY REACHED THE MARKET. PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER TELL US THAT THIS RELEASE OF 100 MILLION IS PART OF THOSE PLEDGED BARRELS BACK FROM MARK THAT HAVE NOT ACTUALLY GONE TO MARKET YET. AN INTERESTING PART OF THIS BECAUSE IT DOES APPEAR THIS MAY BE PART OF A PREVIOUS COMMITMENT THAT OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE NOT MADE GOOD ON. WE CANNOT SAY THAT U.S. THE FELT'S COMMITMENTS AS PART OF THAT COORDINATED RELEASE EARLIER THIS WEEK ACTUALLY.

我们从国际能源署(IEA)主任那里获悉,实际上只有三分之一的供应量已到达市场。熟悉此事的人士告诉我们,这1亿桶的释放是马克此前承诺但未实际进入市场的部分。有趣的一点在于,因为这似乎可能是其他国家未能兑现的先前承诺的一部分。我们不能说美国本周早些时候作为协调释放一部分的承诺实际上已经履行。

IT JUST HAPPENED. A FEW DIFFERENT THREATS TO PULL ON BUT IT IS CLEAR THE ADMINISTRATION DOES NEED MORE SUPPLY TO GET TO MARKET. WE CONTINUOUSLY HEAR THAT HIGHER DIESEL PRICES TODAY, $6.37 A G ALLON, THOS

这只是恰好发生了。存在多种不同的压力因素,但很明显,政府需要更多供应以进入市场。我们不断听到关于当前柴油价格高企的消息,每加仑6.37美元,那些

原文超出正文长度上限,此处截断——上游还有内容,完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。

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