美国8月非农仅增2.9万远逊预期，美股期货跳涨
Open Interest 10/2/2026
核心宏观数据落地且直接引发跨资产定价变化（美债收益率与美股走势），具备明确的可执行参考意义。
DANI A SOFTER JOBS PRINT FEELS EQUITY GAINS. MICHAEL: HAPPY JOB DAY. "BLOOMBERG OPEN INTEREST" STARTS RIGHT NOW. DANI: U.S. EMPLOYERS ADDED FAR LESS JOBS THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED. CAUTION CREEPS INTO CREDIT MARKETS AS INVESTORS RECONSIDER THE SAFE HAVEN TRADE. BLACKSTONE JOINS BROADCOM'S MASSIVE AI FINANCING PUSH AS ANTHROPIC RACES TOWARDS AN IPO. SOME STOCKS WE ARE WATCHING. NIKE DOWN EIGHT AND 131%. -- AND ONE THIRD OF A PERCENT.
达妮：更温和的就业数据令期权交易员感到欣慰。迈克尔：职业快乐日。《彭博看跌/看涨期权持仓量》现在开始。达妮：美国雇主新增就业岗位远低于预期。随着投资者重新审视避险交易，谨慎情绪蔓延至信贷市场。黑石加入博通的巨额人工智能融资推动行列，Anthropic 加速迈向 IPO。我们关注的一些股票。耐克下跌 8.131%。——以及三分之一百分点。
STRUGGLING TO GAIN TRACTION. CHINA STILL A MAJOR DRAG. MANAGEMENT WARNING SALES COULD STAY UNDER PRESSURE. SHARES HAVE FALLEN BY MORE THAN 50% SINCE ELLIOTT HILL TOOK OVER AS CEO IN 2024. LET'S GET MORE ON THE TOP STORY, FUTURES JUMPING ON THAT DISAPPOINTING JOBS DATA. THE U.S. ADDING JUST 29,000 JOBS LAST MONTH. THAT WAS FAR SHORT OF THE 90,000 ESTIMATE. MICHAEL: ALSO ON THE LEVEL WHICH THE UNAPPOINTED RATE STARTS TO MOVE.
难以获得动力。中国仍是主要拖累。管理层警告称销售额可能持续承压。自埃利奥特·希尔于 2024 年接任首席执行官以来，股价已下跌超过 50%。让我们进一步了解头条新闻，期货因令人失望的就业数据而跳涨。美国上个月仅新增 29,000 个就业岗位。这远低于 90,000 的预期。迈克尔：也在失业率开始变动的水平上。
WE SAW THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GO UP 2%. IT WAS REALLY A ROUNDING THING. AUGUST, 4.1%. IT ROUNDS UP. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS NOT AS STRONG. NO REAL ISSUES THERE WITH INFLATION. THE LABOR FORCE STILL GROWING. PEOPLE LOOKING FOR JOBS. IT IS NOT ALL THAT BAD BUT IT DOES GIVE THE DOVES A REASON TO BE A LITTLE HAPPIER. DANI: WHAT DIFFERENCE IT MAKES FOR THE FED. WE ARE NOT GETTING INFLATION FROM WAGES BUT THE FED'S CONTENTION HAS BEEN WE ARE NOT GETTING INFLATION FROM THE JOBS MARKET ANYWAY.
我们看到失业率上升了 2%。这实际上是一个四舍五入的问题。八月为 4.1%。它向上取整。平均小时工资不那么强劲。通胀方面没有真正的问题。劳动力仍在增长。人们在寻找工作。情况并没有那么糟糕，但这确实让鸽派有理由稍微高兴一点。达妮：这对美联储有何影响？我们并未从工资中感受到通胀，但美联储的观点一直是，无论如何我们并未从就业市场中感受到通胀。
MICHAEL: THIS DOES NOT SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS. IT TAKES US BACK TO LOW FIRE, LOW HIRE. IT GIVES THEM A REASON THEY DON'T HAVE TO DO SOMETHING IN OCTOBER UNLESS WE GET THE CPI REPORT AS A MAJOR SURPRISE. RIGHT NOW ONLY 18.5% CHANCE OF A HIKE AT THE END OF OCTOBER. STILL PRICING AND 70 PERCENT FOR DECEMBER. DANI: I WILL TELL YOU WHO IS HAPPY, EVERY OTHER INTERNATIONAL BOND MARKET THAT'S BEEN FEELING PRESSURE FROM FRANCE AND BEYOND.
迈克尔：这表明并没有明显的疲软。它将我们带回了低利率、低招聘的状态。这给了他们一个理由，除非消费者物价指数（CPI）报告出现重大意外，否则他们十月份无需采取行动。目前十月底加息的概率仅为 18.5%。十二月仍定价在 70% 左右。达妮：我会告诉你谁很高兴，其他所有国际债券市场，这些市场一直承受着来自法国及更远地区的压力。
THOSE YIELDS NOW LITTLE CHANGED FOR FRANCE 10-YEAR YIELD. THAT UNLOCKS LOWER YIELDS ACROSS THE BOND CURVE. WE ARE ON DOING THE WORK OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS. WE ARE AROUND WHERE WE WERE FINISHED ON FED DAY. WE ARE ERASING THE CONCERNS FOLLOWING THE HARD PMI PRINT. MICHAEL: I THINK THE IMPORTANT THING WE WILL SEE THIS VOLATILITY IN THE MARKETS AS THE DATA COMES IN AND OUT AND PEOPLE BET ON WHAT THE FED MIGHT DO. YOU HAVE SO MANY OTHER THINGS GOING ON NOW, INCLUDING THE U.S.
这些收益率现在几乎没有变化，法国十年期收益率如此。这将解锁债券曲线上的更低收益率。我们正在完成过去两周的工作。我们回到了美联储决议日的水平。我们正在消除硬采购经理人指数（PMI）数据公布后的担忧。迈克尔：我认为我们将看到的重要事情是，随着数据的陆续公布，人们押注美联储可能会做什么，市场会出现波动。现在有太多其他事情在进行，包括美国的情况。
DEFICIT, WHAT'S GOING ON OVERSEAS. YOU CAN'T REALLY BET ON ANY ONE PARTICULAR BOND YIELDS AT THIS POINT BECAUSE IT WILL CHANGE. DANI: ARE YOU BUYING THE DEBT OR JUMPING INTO A MEATGRINDER IS THE METAPHOR. MICHAEL: WE WERE WORRIED ABOUT THE JAPANESE BOND MARKET AND NOW WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE FRENCH. DANI: WE HAVE A GREAT CONVERSATION COMING UP LATER IN THE HOUR. WE WILL SPEAK WITH NATIONAL ECONOMIC DIRECTOR KEVIN HASSETT JOINING US AT 9:45 A.M.
赤字，海外究竟发生了什么。目前你无法押注任何特定债券的收益率，因为情况会变化。达妮：你是要买入债务，还是跳进绞肉机？这是比喻。迈克尔：我们曾担心日本债券市场，现在我们担心法国。达妮：稍后我们将有一段精彩的对话。我们将在上午9:45与国家经济主任凯文·哈塞特连线。
MICHAEL: A STRING THE PRICE TARGET CUTS FROM NIKE. THE COMPANY POSTED DISAPPOINTING RESULTS, WARNING THE SALES SLUMP IS SAID TO GET WORSE. IT IS ALSO CUTTING JOBS AND LAUNCHING AN OVERHAUL OF ITS BUSINESS. JOINING US NOW IS ROMAINE BOSTICK. THEY CALLED YOU TO -- ROMAINE: THEY UNVEILED THE NEW SNEAKER LINE UP WITH CAITLIN CLARK. AN APPAREL LINE UP BUT THAT'S NOT ENOUGH TO HELP THE COMPANY OVERALL. IT ADDS A LITTLE BIT OF JUICE AND A LITTLE EXCITEMENT.
迈克尔：耐克接连下调目标价。该公司公布了令人失望的结果，并警告称销售下滑预计将进一步恶化。它还在裁员并对业务进行全面改革。现在与我们连线的是罗曼·博斯蒂克。他们叫你来——罗曼：他们与凯特琳·克拉克一起发布了新款运动鞋系列。还有一系列服装，但这不足以帮助公司整体改善。这增添了一些活力和一些兴奋感。
THERE ARE BIGGER STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS WITH THIS COMPANY. THEY HAVE NOT POSTED ANY MEANINGFUL YEAR REVENUE GROWTH BASICALLY GOING BACK TO 2022 NOW. SIMILAR ON THE PROFITABILITY SIDE AND THE GUIDANCE THEY GAVE SAYS DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING TO CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. THEY ARE GUIDING FOR THE FULL FISCAL YEAR OVER REVENUE DECLINE IN THE HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT PERCENTAGES. THEY WERE SCANNED ON DETAILS OR WHEN THE REAL TURNAROUND IS GOING TO COME -- SCANT ON DETAILS.
这家公司存在更大的结构性问题。基本上自2022年以来，他们没有实现任何有意义的年度收入增长。盈利能力方面也是如此，他们给出的指引表示不要指望短期内会有任何变化。他们对整个财政年度的指引是收入将出现高个位数百分比的下降。关于细节或真正的复苏何时到来，他们的信息非常匮乏。
MICHAEL: COULD THERE BE PRESSURE ON ELLIOTT HILL? ROMAINE: HE'S COMING UP ON THE TWO-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF TAKING OVER. YOU SAW IT. FOUR OR FIVE PRICE DOWNGRADES. THAT WAS ONLY HALF OF THEM TODAY. MOST ANALYSTS HAVE SOURED ON THE STOCK NOW. THEY UNVEILED A NEW PROGRAM CALLED PACE, A COST-CUTTING PROGRAM THAT WILL REJIGGER SOME OF THE GEOGRAPHIC LINEUP WITH REGARD TO HOW THEY MANAGE THINGS. THAT MIGHT HELP THE BOTTOM LINE BUT IT STILL DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SALES ISSUE DIRECTLY.
迈克尔：埃利奥特·希尔是否会面临压力？罗曼：他即将迎来接管两周年纪念日。你看过了。四到五次评级下调。那只是今天的一半。大多数分析师现在对该股票持悲观态度。他们推出了一项名为“Pace”的新计划，这是一项削减成本的项目，将重新调整地理布局中的一些内容，涉及他们如何管理事务。这可能有助于改善底线（利润），但仍然没有直接解决销售问题。
THIS IS A COMPANY IN NORTH AMERICA GROWING AT ABOUT 2%. CHINA SELLS DOWN MORE THAN 20%. SALES AND EMEA DOWN 10%. MICHAEL: USED TO BE WE SIGN A BIG NAMES TO ENDORSE OUR SNEAKERS AND EVERYBODY BUYS THEM. WHAT ARE THEY DOING GOING FORWARD? ROMAINE: IT IS NOT JUST A NIKE PROBLEM. THAT'S A PROBLEM FOR EVERYONE. THERE WAS A LOT OF HANDWRINGING. YOU NEED A SIGNATURE ATHLETE BUT INCREDIBLY HIGH PRICE? THEY LOOK AT SOMEONE LIKE CAITLIN CLARK WHO IS YOUNGER, HAS A VERY BROAD DEMOGRAPHIC.
这是一家在北美以约2%的速度增长的公司。中国销量下降超过20%。销售额和欧洲、中东及非洲地区（EMEA）下降10%。迈克尔：过去我们会签下大牌名人来代言我们的运动鞋，然后每个人都会购买。未来他们会怎么做？罗曼：这不仅仅是耐克的问题。这是所有人的问题。曾经有很多担忧。你需要一位标志性运动员，但价格却高得离谱？他们看像凯特琳·克拉克这样的人，她更年轻，拥有非常广泛的受众群体。
WOMEN'S BASKETBALL BUT SHE HAS A LOT OF APPEAL TO MEN AND BOYS AS WELL. THEY FEEL LIKE THEY CAN MAYBE BUILD A SIGNATURE LINE UP OF APPAREL AND CLOTHING AND SHOES AROUND HER AND THAT MIGHT PROVIDE A LITTLE JUICE. ELLIOTT HILL MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE WANTS TO FOCUS ON "PERFORMANCE." GET TISSUES ON THE WINNERS CIRCLE AT THE NEW YORK CITY MARATHON OR ON THE NFL STAGE IN SOME WAY. THAT WILL TRANSLATE LONGER TERM INTO AN INCREASE IN SALES.
女子篮球运动员，但她对男性和男孩也极具吸引力。他们可能希望围绕她打造一套签名系列的服装和鞋履，这或许能带来一些额外的关注度。埃利奥特·希尔明确表示他希望专注于“表现”。在纽约市马拉松的冠军圈或某种形式的NFL舞台上获得曝光，这将转化为长期销售的增长。
DANI: WASN'T THERE A DISCOURSE OVER NIKE SHOES BANDED MARATHONS BECAUSE THEY WERE MAKING PEOPLE TOO FAST? ROMAINE: NOW IT IS ALL JUST -- MICHAEL: GETTING STINKERS INTO THE WINNERS CIRCLE IS GETTING CHEAPER THAN FORMULA ONE CARS INTO THE WINNERS CIRCLE. DANI: THAT IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. ROMAINE, LOOKING FORWARD TO "THE CLOSE" TODAY. A NEW ROUND OF FINANCING TO BUY CHIPS OR ANTHROPIC. UP TO $60 BILLION TO MEET CHIP DEMAND.
达尼：之前不是有关于耐克鞋子因让跑者速度过快而被禁止参加马拉松的讨论吗？罗梅恩：现在这一切都变成了——迈克尔：让劣质产品进入冠军圈比让一级方程式赛车进入冠军圈更便宜。达尼：这是一种轻描淡写。罗梅恩，期待今天《The Close》节目。新一轮融资用于购买芯片或Anthropic。高达600亿美元以满足芯片需求。
IT WILL HELP FUND DEMAND BY ANTHROPIC WHICH PLANS TO GO PUBLIC BY THANKSGIVING. LET'S DISCUSS WITH CARMEN REINICKE. ANOTHER CAR STRUCTURE. BLACKSTONE LEADING THIS ALONGSIDE OTHER BANKS. THIS IS JUST CIRCULAR FINANCING? CARMEN: IT REALLY IS THE MAIN QUESTION. WE HAVE KNOWN ABOUT THIS FOR A FEW WEEKS AND WE ARE STARTING TO GET MORE DETAILS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHEN IT LAUNCHES. WALL STREET IS WATCHING TO SEE WHAT IS ACTUALLY THE INVESTOR APPETITE TO CONTINUE TO SPEND SO MUCH MONEY ON THIS AI BUILDOUT AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF IT IS CIRCULAR.
这将有助于资助Anthropic的需求，该公司计划感恩节前上市。让我们与卡门·雷尼克讨论。另一种汽车结构。黑石集团领衔，与其他银行一起。这仅仅是循环融资吗？卡门：这确实是主要问题。我们几周前就知道了这件事，现在开始获得更多细节。看看它何时推出会很有趣。华尔街正在观察投资者继续在这项AI建设中投入巨资的实际意愿，以及其中究竟有多少是循环的。
IS IT ACTUALLY CHOOSING ITS OWN REVENUE FOR THESE COMPANIES? SUPER INTERESTING TO GET MORE DETAILS. I'M ALWAYS LOOKING AT HOW BROADCOM STOCK IS DONE THROUGH ALL THIS. IT'S REALLY UNDERPERFORMED. IT'S DOWN ON WAS 30% FROM THE JUNE HIGH. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE UPCOMING EARNINGS IF THAT COMPANY IS ABLE TO BETTER COMMUNICATE SOME OF THE GROWTH THEY ARE SEEING, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU HAVE ALL THIS MONEY GOING TO FINANCE THE BUILDOUT.
这是否实际上是在为这些公司选择自己的收入来源？获取更多细节非常有趣。我一直在关注博通股票在此期间的表现。它的表现真的不佳。从6月高点下跌了30%。 upcoming earnings（即将到来的财报）将很有趣，看看该公司是否能够更好地传达其看到的一些增长，尤其是当所有这些资金都用于资助建设时。
MICHAEL: ARE INVESTORS ASKING THAT QUESTION? IS THERE CONCERN OVER THAT AT THIS POINT? CARMEN: I WOULD SAY THE DEBATE IS THERE BUT I HAVE NOT HEARD MANY INVESTORS WORRIED ABOUT IT. THEY SEE THE REASONS THERE ARE CONCERNS. EVERYONE HAS SEEN AN AMAZING CHART OF ALL THE DIFFERENT LINES GOING AROUND WERE ALL THIS MONEY IS FLOWING INTO CIRCLE -- IN A CIRCLE. I HAVE NOT SPOKEN TO A LOT OF INVESTORS WHO ARE SAYING I'M NOT BUYING THE STOCKS BECAUSE I SEE THEY ARE FINANCING THEIR OWN REVENUE YET.
迈克尔：投资者在问这个问题吗？目前对此有担忧吗？卡门：我会说辩论确实存在，但我没有听到太多投资者为此担心。他们看到了存在担忧的理由。每个人都见过一张令人惊叹的图表，显示了所有不同的资金流向都在一个圆圈中流动——在一个圆圈里。我没有和很多投资者交谈过，他们说我不买股票是因为我看到它们正在用自己的收入进行融资。
THAT COULD HAPPEN AT SOME POINT AND THAT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. MICHAEL: THIS DEAL TO BUY SYNAPTICS YESTERDAY, WHAT IS GOING ON? THEY ARE PAYING LESS THAN THEY INITIALLY AGREED? CARMEN: THEY SWITCHED TO AN ALL CASH DEAL. IT IS STILL GIVING OF PREMIUM TO SYNAPTICS' INVESTORS. YES, IT LOWERS THE OVERALL DEAL SIZE FROM $7 BILLION TO LESS THAN $6 BILLION. BOTH HAVE GOTTEN REALLY BEATEN DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS, AS WE HAVE SEEN A ROTATION BACK INTO THE BIGGER LARGE CAPS.
这可能在某个时候发生，那将是另一个故事。迈克尔：昨天这笔收购Synaptics的交易是怎么回事？他们支付的金额少于最初约定的吗？卡门：他们改为了全现金交易。这仍然给予Synaptics的投资者一定的溢价。是的，它将整体交易规模从70亿美元降低到了不到60亿美元。在过去几个月里，两者的股价都大幅下跌，因为我们看到资金重新流向大型股。
DEALS ARE STILL GOING AHEAD AND IT'S INTERESTING TO SEE CONSOLIDATION IN THE SPACE. DANI: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. LET'S GET A CHECK ON MARKETS. WE ARE LOOKING AT A RALLY THANKS TO LOWER YIELDS. WE ARE DOWN BY NEARLY SIX BASIS POINT FOR THE 10-YEAR YIELD. A FEW DAYS AGO WE WERE AT 5.33%. WE HAVE COME DOWN A FAIR PERCENT. BRENT CRUDE, IS THE OIL MOVE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS MORNING? IT WAS APPARENT EVEN BEFORE A SOFTER JOB SPRINT.
交易仍在推进，该领域的整合情况也很有趣。达妮：非常感谢您加入我们。让我们来看看市场动态。由于收益率下降，我们正迎来一波反弹。10年期国债收益率下降了近6个基点。几天前我们还在5.33%。我们已经下降了不少。布伦特原油，今天早上油价走势值得关注吗？甚至在就业数据疲软之前就已经很明显了。
WE ARE DOWN BY NEARLY 3%. BACK UNDER $100 A BARREL. NORAH: FIRST UP, TESLA JUST RELEASED THE THIRD QUARTER AND THEY DELIVER
我们下跌了近3%，重回每桶100美元以下。诺拉：首先，特斯拉刚刚发布了第三季度报告，他们的交付量
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力