美国就业数据大幅下修，美联储9月加息依据存疑
US jobs data revised lower after Fed rate hike
美联储加息的核心依据（就业强劲）被官方证实存在重大数据误差，直接动摇政策逻辑并改变市场对后续加息路径的预期，属于宏观层面的关键事实修正。
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has slashed job gains it announced in July and August by 60,000. Its earlier, more optimistic numbers were factors in the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike on September 16.
美国劳工统计局（BLS）将其在7月和8月公布的就业增长数据下调了6万。其此前更为乐观的数据是美国联邦储备委员会于9月16日加息的因素之一。
For the first time in three years, Fed governors made mortgages and credit more expensive with their benchmark rate hike, because they had decided “the labor side of the Fed’s congressional remit is in good shape,” affording them the luxury of slowing inflation.
三年来首次，美联储理事通过提高基准利率使抵押贷款和信贷成本上升，因为他们决定“美联储国会授权中的劳动力状况良好”，从而有能力抑制通胀。
The BLS reported a 21,000 gain when the Fed voted in July, but this figure now shows a 10,000 loss. The bureau also slashed 29,000 jobs from its estimate for August.
美联储在7月投票时，BLS报告就业增长了2.1万，但这一数字现在显示为减少1万。该局还将其对8月就业的估计值削减了2.9万。
On September 16, the Fed’s own statement claimed, “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”
9月16日，美联储自己的声明称：“就业增长与劳动力规模保持同步，失业率变化不大。”
“Job openings and weekly hours have been increasing,” Warsh told reporters in September. This was based on inaccurate data that claimed the US economy was “largely acting consistent with full employment.”
Warsh在9月告诉记者：“职位空缺和每周工时都在增加。”这是基于不准确的数据，该数据声称美国经济“基本符合充分就业状态”。
The rate of US job creation has been declining for five years. Source: US BLS, TradingView
美国就业创造率已连续五年下降。来源：美国BLS，TradingView
August was ‘nothing more than a rebound’
8月“不过是一次反弹”
After August’s initially optimistic report about job openings, UBS said market odds of an interest rate hike climbed from 50% to 60%. Already expensive mortgages and credit would become even more expensive as benchmark interest rates continued rising.
在8月初步发布的关于职位空缺的乐观报告之后，瑞银表示市场认为加息的概率从50%升至60%。随着基准利率持续上升，原本昂贵的抵押贷款和信贷将变得更加昂贵。
September made the picture worse. US employers added only 29,000 jobs against a forecast of 84,000, as the unemployment rate rose to a concerning 4.2%.
9月的情况更加糟糕。美国雇主仅新增2.9万个就业岗位，远低于预期的8.4万，失业率上升至令人担忧的4.2%。
Jefferies’ chief US economist downplayed any positive spin on the notional increase, explaining, “It appears that the August number was nothing more than a rebound from very weak hiring in June and July.”
杰富瑞（Jefferies）的首席美国经济学家淡化了对名义增长的积极解读，解释说：“看起来8月的数据不过是6月和7月招聘极度疲软后的反弹。”
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凯文·沃什是谁？特朗普提名的美联储理事候选人
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The Fed needed more accurate data
美联储需要更准确的数据
Financial blogger ZeroHedge argued that the Fed wouldn’t have even hiked in the first place if it had had accurate data.
金融博客ZeroHedge认为，如果拥有准确的数据，美联储根本不会加息。
The BLS attributes its downward revisions to additional business and government reports plus seasonal recalculations, so the lower numbers reflect more accurate information.
BLS将其向下修订归因于额外的企业和政府报告以及季节性重新计算，因此较低的数字反映了更准确的信息。
After September’s interest rate increase, 16 of 18 members of the Federal Open Market Committee were expecting to hike rates again before the end of the year. After these BLS revisions, that forecast is certainly under scrutiny.
在9月加息后，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）18名成员中有16人预计年底前会再次加息。在这些BLS修订之后，这一预测无疑正受到审视。
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