美国非农仅增2.9万人，失业率升至4.2%

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Let's get right to it. Uh big uh changes here. Change in non-farm payrolls. We're expecting 90,000 jobs. were only getting 29,000. The prior month also revised downward from 162 to 133,000. The unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The expectation was 4.1%. Average hourly earnings on a month overmonth basis uh coming in much less than expected. Uh just a tenth of a percent. The expectation was for 3/10en of a percent. You mentioned that uh 2-year yield down 8 basis points right now 4.7%.

We check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg radio. I'm John Tucker. That's your uh unemployment report, the jobs report for this Friday. Paul and Tom.

John Tucker, thanks so much. 4.2% on the unemployment rate. There's a lot of noise in there. I got a C minus on this. Dr. Sam marked me down years ago

on his 4.2% 2% here and you know everything folks as I said it was a real stasis survey

and the answer is the numbers are not 29,000 and the two-month payroll revision is60,000 I'm going to nail this that's a negative 29,000

okay

negative over you know a summation here as well the hourly earnings come in light light light 0.3

and they came in substantially below that 0.1

average hourly earnings you know annualized down a tick 3.1 down to 30 equities lift up 61 on futures up 30 double up 60 NASDAQ up a full stick 1% the VIX as Paul mentioned at 16 comes in at 15 Paul to let Dr. s massage the data. What do you see here, Paul? Right now, I'm

just looking at the bond market right here, Tom. The the two years, uh, down nine basis points. It was down two basis points before this report. So, we're now at 469 on the 2-year. The 10-year off about 8 and a half basis points. Uh, the 10ear is now 5.15% Tom. So, uh, yields coming in, bonds prices higher.

In Duth, Minnesota, I think Gordon Lightfoot in Lake Superior. Claudia S is with us as she is honored by the University of Minnesota. Dr. Um this is a report that a select group of people said would happen would come in light what David Rosenberg called a catchdown. What do you do with one month data? Well, I think this this does undercut the story that had been coming in today that maybe we have some strengthening in the labor market, right? that maybe the hiring picking up some like this this just shows no we are the labor market is much more stable like job creation has stabilized relative to last year when it was really sliding but we are not in an uptrend right so the August number it was pop even with the downward revisions today it's probably well above what it takes to keep the unemployment rate stable

but we're not going we didn't get another month of that right it like popped back down so I think we're just in this place of very low job creation in the US which does fit with low growth in the labor force and the unemployment rate it did tick up but basically it's unchanged I mean 42 41 those aren't big differences

I was talking to Veronica Clark about this at group and the GDP and I guess it comes into Claudia I'm thinking of the the late laurate Ned Phelps at Colombia the dynamism of the American economy are we getting sclerotic in our nonAI world

it is really frustrating to look at the labor market at a moment like this where there really isn't a lot of dynamism. One thing I watch so closely in addition to the hiring rate is the quit rate because that's the opportunity for people to go find better jobs, better pay, deal with, you know, higher prices and that quit rate is also low. We are just not moving people around. So it it really is uh there's so much tension to have a labor market that feels kind of stuck and an economy where we're talking about transformative technology like it it like things are out of sync in a way that just doesn't feel like it can keep going and yet it has we are like you know at least 3 years into this low higher low fire labor market.

This is not normal.

How do you think the Fed is going to view uh this print here this morning?

I don't think this gives the Fed a lot of information. I don't think it'll really change what their their approach to monetary policy right now they're dealing they're trying to contain supplied driven inflation like keeping a bad situation from getting worse. Fed officials have talked about what's a pretty modest adjustment in interest rates. They've done a quarter point maybe they do another maybe two more this year.

That is not a like hiking cycle like 2022 when the labor market's overheating. We have 9% inflation. Like we are not in that world. The labor market is is pretty stable. It's not in a great place. It's not the Fed's focus right now. And really, given their mandate and their tools, I think it's appropriate for them to be focused on the inflation side, but again, they've had a pretty modest approach to monetary policy.

The market seem to think something a little more aggressive, and maybe they should tone it, you know, back a little today, but I don't think it really shifts the Fed's thinking that much.

So, with a little bit of hindsight here, um, what is the changed reduced uh, more limited immigration policy? How does that impact? Do we have any real hard data how that's impacting the labor market?

There there have been I think first some measurement challenges right just in in both the surveys and also with employers and reporting and we've had not just a reduction in immigration we've had you know uh temporary visa status revoked and and that revokes some of the work status and then how do employers handle that and when does it get reported. So it we have with a a pretty big time lag got a sense of what's actually happening in terms of our immigrant workforce.

So we don't have a good handle of it. I think you can go to a few immigrant like intensive industries like maybe in construction and you see some wage growth pick up which could be labor shortages but oh yeah we're also building a bunch of data centers. So like that's pushing up construction. So it's really hard to to pull it out but it is clear the labor force growth is slowing not just immigration but that is a a piece of like the sharp change.

Claudia Safe Travels thank you so much for joining us today. Yman's duty or say yo woman's duty here from th