法国国债收益率飙升至2012年以来高位，市场担忧债务危机蔓延

Good morning. How you doing? It's Friday the second. French bonds are starting the day. 140 basis points over Germany. 0808 futures on signaling any recovery. The next big risk events around half an hour. The European cash open. And then US payrolls are a little later on this afternoon. Trump percent a third carrier group to the Persian Gulf. Pay attention to that and hold the pumpkin pie. It looks like anthropic wants to IPO before Thanksgiving.

Counter guy, let's put some numbers on that French story to start with. This is the French ten year yield 4.9%. The budget yesterday didn't seem to do enough to calm nerves around the French fiscal situation. And so we watch that spread, as Guy pointed out, 140 basis points more than that over German buttons. Will it widen today? What will the new data today mean for that spread? What happens to euro dollar in that context?

There's talk in the market of 1 to 2 month puts being bought around the single currency Euro 50 futures for the moment. Up a 10th of a percent. Part of this the effect of some dovish language from the fed yesterday that calmed nerves in U.S. stocks. Is that enough for European stocks though? In the face of a bond selloff account, the countdown to the opening trade starts right now. Good morning. Happy Friday. So investors have drawn their conclusion France is the new problem child for Europe.

With that spread, you have to go back to 2012 to see a spread of this level 141 over the benchmark German. So you put all the debt load together a France corporate household and sovereign, and you're looking at debt to GDP of around 324%, 324%, only behind Japan. When you put that in the global context, Nomura saying that that spread could get to 200, 200 for German bonds by the end of 2027. Where are we in this journey?

Are we getting closer to a crisis point? Are we getting closer to a point where the ECB has to act? Maybe not 5% versus 7% to the eurozone debt crisis, but people are starting to draw parallels now, fairly or unfairly, with Greece. That's what we all know. So yeah, how far does it go? 200 basis points. Where does when does what does it become a crisis? Is this a crisis yet? I don't know. Could it still be averted? I don't know, uh, the market is basically selling first and asking questions later.

We've reached that point. This feels like a different mentality associated with France. Previously, we've kind of stretched and stretched, and it's never felt like it's going to go kind of into the crisis phase we have. It feels like we've reached that. There's a different point being reached this year. Is there any off ramp here we use? The off ramp I think is also crucial. We've referenced the ECB. Is it is it something that they can do.

Is it something the French government can do? What they did yesterday didn't seem to do the trick when it comes to the budget. And interesting to get the international investor perspective here. One portfolio manager in Tokyo I noticed in our, you know, in our reporting this morning saying if they take tough action on the deficit, that means obviously pensions and welfare and things that it increases the chance that you get more extreme parties in the mix in French politics next year.

And so if that international investor feeling a little bit paralyzed as to how this is broken before we get to those French elections in less than a year, does it cause contagion? I think there's also the risk. Does it stay in France? Will stay that what starts in France? Does it stay in France? In Greece it didn't. So it started in Greece and then spread around the periphery. Do we see something similar happening here?

Is Europe going to be treated like France's, or are we going to differentiate between different countries in Europe? Where is it going to leave the UK? That much stress? Is there going to be there? It was interesting dynamics on both markets yesterday. Oh eight spreads widening also Italian spreads. So those two often do go together, rightly or wrongly. France, the UK and Germany showed the other side of that trade. So?

So that's something to keep in mind in terms of where it goes next. But euro contagion also means something to within the eurozone. There's a lot of talk about whether this is now the dominant driver for the the sunset implications of this euro at a 16 month low versus the US dollar, evidence that CDs, credit default swaps are starting to look a little bit more vulnerable. They started to peek, uh, in Europe as well.

Uh, and, and and whether or not this, this is, this is a concern. If you look at the bank stocks yesterday heavily hit and particularly in France. Yeah. So the next big risk the open. What's that. In around 20 minutes time will start to get some of the data I think coming through payrolls come later. And what I think is interesting yesterday you saw a rally in treasuries. Treasuries actually had a better day. Now there's some money may be flowing across the Atlantic, but there were a whole bunch of other reasons as well.

And we go into payrolls, I think, with only 30% priced in terms of the next meeting, which is an extraordinary shift this week. Look at what's happening in Europe versus the US from 70% at the beginning of this week, pricing a hike in October to 30%. Now, I suppose that the market has done a lot, hasn't it. But but but certainly in Europe, maybe less so in the States. Let's have a look at what we are talking about in the Middle East.

You were mentioning in your headlines the fact that the U.S. is, according to U.S. officials, readying to deploy an additional aircraft carrier to the Middle East, along with the the manpower that goes with that, that would take them back to three carriers. And this ties in, of course, with those who are thinking that maybe after the midterms, we get a pivoting President Trump's strategy. And of course, it sent oil prices higher, up by 4% in just Thursday.

But it's not just oil prices we're watching. Diesel is very much at the epicenter of this, and no doubt we'll have more news lines around this from a European perspective soon, because we've heard very little from Europe on diesel. We've heard a lot from the U.S. they're putting a lot of pressure on European leaders. It seems to release diesel from their stockpiles. But there is a meeting today amongst European diesel interests.

So we will see. This is the trade though isn't it. We either do a diesel ban or you release diesel. Like it seems fairly logical in terms of the way that the US is looking at it, but this is the product cost right now. What's the product cost if we get an escalation? Because yes, this could be posturing in terms of moving 10,000 additional troops and another aircraft group into into the Middle East, potentially three and an amphibious group as well, including amphibious assault troops.

Is this posturing or is this and they being briefing on this? Is this a Trump administration preparing to go heavy again on Iran in terms of military action after the midterms? That's what they've been signaling. And now they're actually putting assets in place to be able to allow them to do that, should they choose to do that. Should we talk about technology? Because, I mean, one of the many reasons and, you know, we were counting at least ten earlier on this week.

One of the many reasons we see higher yields is this competition for capital. And that continues. Uh, yeah. Anthropic IPO. Yeah. Potentially before before Thanksgiving with 2 trillion valuation 2 trillion okay. So more equity coming. That's that's the story with the anthropic story. Broadcom looking to raise 60 billion to help anthropic. More debt coming. Okay. So it's basically doing that to try to raise money so that it can fund more chips.

Um Amazon looking to offload um was it 8 billion uh of chips into an SPV effectively. So more SPV is coming more off balance sheet. So you got more equity coming. Got more debt coming. And we've got more opaq