特朗普拟增兵中东,欧盟紧急讨论柴油储备
US Gulf Force Surge, Emergency EU Diesel Talks, Plunging Bank Stocks | Bloomberg Daybreak:...
地缘政治升级与能源供应链扰动直接冲击大宗商品定价与宏观流动性预期,建议关注原油、柴油及相关避险资产走势。
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. Good morning. It's Friday the 2nd of October. I'm Nathan Hager in London. Coming up today, the US sends thousands of extra troops and an additional aircraft carrier to the Middle East as President Trump weighs escalating attacks on Iran. Washington presses Europe to tap emergency diesel reserves as it weighs an export ban. Plus, banking on a tax rise.
彭博音频工作室、播客、广播、新闻。这是《彭博早间欧洲》播客。早上好,今天是10月2日星期五。我是内森·黑格(Nathan Hager),在伦敦报道。今天即将带来:随着特朗普总统权衡对伊朗升级攻击,美国向中东派遣数千名增援部队和一艘额外的航空母舰;华盛顿敦促欧洲动用应急柴油储备,同时考虑实施出口禁令。此外,还有押注加税的报道。
Healey meets city bosses as lenders brace for a budget hit and lender stock prices tumble. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. News this morning of a major US military buildup in the Middle East. This is according to officials who have spoken to Bloomberg. The Pentagon is deploying an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops to the Persian Gulf. It comes as President Trump suggests military strikes against Iran are possible after the US midterm elections.
希利(Healey)与城市高管会面,贷款机构为预算冲击做准备,贷款机构股价暴跌。让我们从我们的头条新闻汇总开始。今晨新闻报道美国在中东大规模军事集结。据向彭博社透露的官员称,五角大楼正在向波斯湾部署一艘额外的航空母舰和1万名士兵。此举发生在特朗普总统暗示在美国中期选举后可能对伊朗进行军事打击之后。
Here's our breaking news editor, Brian Peach.
以下是我们的突发新闻编辑布莱恩·皮奇(Brian Peach)。
President Trump has been talking a lot lately about framing the Iran war as this big decision that he has to make. He's basically framing it as he could choose to pursue a deal with Iran or he could choose what he's framed as, you know, varying levels of military destruction. and he's framed it too as a choice that Iran has to make whether they want to accept the deal or or go the military route.
特朗普总统最近一直在谈论将伊朗战争框架为他必须做出的重大决定。他基本上将其框架为:他可以选择与伊朗达成交易,或者选择他所描述的不同程度的军事破坏。他还将其框架为伊朗必须做出的选择:是接受交易还是走军事路线。
That was Bloomberg's Brian Peach reporting. The ramp up comes as Iran's foreign minister reportedly suggested restoring access for nuclear inspectors in exchange for sanctions relief. UK police say they've arrested a dual British Iranian national on suspicion of preparation of terrorist attacks. It's the sixth arrest in connection with an incident at a British air base used by the US to launch strikes on Iran. Five other men have been released on bail.
以上是彭博社的布莱恩·皮奇的报道。此次升级之际,据报道伊朗外长建议恢复核核查人员的准入以换取制裁解除。英国警方表示,他们已逮捕一名涉嫌准备恐怖袭击的英伊双重国籍人士。这是与一起发生在美国用于发动对伊朗打击的英国空军基地事件相关的第六起逮捕行动。另外五名男子已被保释释放。
Prime Minister Andy Burnham says the UK believes Thrron was connected.
首相安迪·伯纳姆(Andy Burnham)表示,英国认为特朗(Thrron)与此事有关联。
There is indeed a strong indication that Iran played a part. This remains though a complex and very serious police investigation. So I can't say any more at this stage. That was Andy Burnham speaking earlier this week. Iran denied involvement. European officials are holding an emergency meeting this morning to discuss whether to release diesel stockpiles. Bloomberg understands the Trump administration is pushing the European Union to release its reserves.
确实有强烈迹象表明伊朗参与其中。然而,这仍然是一项复杂且非常严重的警察调查。因此,在此阶段我无法透露更多信息。这是安迪·伯纳姆本周早些时候的讲话。伊朗否认参与。欧洲官员今天上午举行紧急会议,讨论是否释放柴油库存。彭博社获悉,特朗普政府正推动欧盟释放其储备。
The move may also head off a US export ban that threatens to tighten diesel supplies across Europe. Jameson Greer is the US trade representative.
此举也可能阻止一项威胁收紧欧洲柴油供应的美国出口禁令。詹姆斯森·格里尔(Jameson Greer)是美国贸易代表。
We have had conversations uh today with some of our European partners about this issue and there is an eagerness on both sides to work together to get more diesel to the market. We know that, you know, France, Germany, and Italy, they're sitting on on reserves. I think, you know, I won't put words in their mouth, of course, but I think they would love to have a cooperative path forward with the United States on how we get more diesel to market.
今天我们与一些欧洲合作伙伴就这一问题进行了交流,双方都迫切希望合作,将更多柴油推向市场。我们知道,法国、德国和意大利拥有大量储备。我想,我不会替他们说话,当然,但我认为他们非常希望与美国在如何将更多柴油推向市场方面采取合作路径。
That was Jameson Greer speaking at a G20 trade event. US diesel prices have jumped 70% since the Iran war began. It is piling pressure on President Trump ahead of next month's midterm elections. Bond investors are turning their attention to France after UK long-term borrowing costs hit 6% yesterday. France is under pressure over its widening deficit with de debt approaching 120% of GDP. The government is also trying to push ambitious spending cuts through a fractured parliament in its upcoming budget.
这是杰梅森·格里尔(Jameson Greer)在 G20 贸易活动上的讲话。自伊朗战争开始以来,美国柴油价格已飙升 70%。这给特朗普总统在下个月中期选举前带来了压力。债券投资者已将注意力转向法国,因为英国长期借贷成本昨日触及 6%。法国因赤字扩大而面临压力,其债务接近 GDP 的 120%。政府还试图在其即将出台的预算中,通过一个分裂的议会推动雄心勃勃的支出削减计划。
Emanuel Cow is head of European equity strategy at Barclays.
伊曼纽尔·考(Emanuel Cow)是巴克莱银行(Barclays)欧洲股票策略主管。
It's going to be tricky for the next couple of weeks at least. I mean it's going to take a couple of weeks for the parliament in France to discuss the budget and as always you know into the presidential election there going to be a lot of noise and a lot of opposition to this budget which is coming up with a significant amount of fiscal tightening but look ultimately I think we've been there before and I think to some extent the market stress might facilitate the adoption of the budget.
至少在未来几周这将很棘手。我的意思是,法国议会需要几周时间来讨论预算,而且正如大家所知,随着总统大选临近,围绕这项预算将产生大量噪音和反对意见,该预算提出了相当程度的财政紧缩措施。但归根结底,我认为我们以前经历过类似情况,我认为在某种程度上,市场压力可能有助于该预算的通过。
That was Emanuel Cal Barklay speaking there. France's premium over German debt has more than doubled since May. And one analyst at Five-Star Asset Management says French 10-year yields could approach 7% if debt concerns get worse. Shares in the UK's biggest lenders have tumbled in the past 24 hours on reports the chancellor may pursue a bank tax in this month's budget. HSBC, Nat West, Lloyds, and Barclays all fell more than 4% with rising borrowing costs also hitting banks globally.
这是伊曼纽尔·卡尔·巴克莱(Emanuel Cal Barklay)的发言。自五月以来,法国国债相对于德国国债的溢价已翻了一倍多。五星资产管理公司(Five-Star Asset Management)的一位分析师表示,如果债务担忧加剧,法国 10 年期收益率可能接近 7%。据报道,财政大臣可能在本月预算中推行银行税,受此消息影响,英国最大贷款机构的股价在过去 24 小时内大幅下跌。汇丰银行(HSBC)、国民威斯银行(Nat West)、劳埃德银行(Lloyds)和巴克莱银行(Barclays)均下跌超过 4%,借贷成本上升也波及全球银行业。
With more, here's Bloomberg's Yuan Pods.
更多精彩内容,请看彭博社的尤安·波茨(Yuan Pods)。
Rising bond yields and tighter financial conditions are weighing on the European banking sector, and lenders in the UK are also facing speculation they may be hit with an increase in the government's bank tax. Currently, an extra 3% of company profits. Bloomberg understands the chancellor will meet with bosses from big banks including Barclays and HSBC next week. This ahead of his budget on October the 28th. In Brussels, I'm Euan Pots, Bloomberg Radio.
不断攀升的债券收益率和收紧的金融状况正对欧洲银行业造成压力,英国贷款机构也面临猜测,称它们可能会受到政府提高银行税的影响。目前,额外征收的公司利润税为 3%。彭博社获悉,财政大臣将于下周会见包括巴克莱和汇丰在内的各大银行高管。这是在 10 月 28 日他公布预算之前。我在布鲁塞尔,尤安·波茨(Euan Pots),彭博广播。
Anthropic is seeking to go public as soon as mid November. That's according to sources that have spoken with Bloomberg. Despite a net loss of almost $42 billion last year, prospective investors are said to value the AI firm at up to $2 trillion. The expected listing comes as anthropic faces renewed competition from Open AI alongside growing scrutiny over artificial intelligence safety. German Chancellor Friedick Merittz says the far-right alternative for Germany party is backed by Russia.
据彭博社消息人士透露,Anthropic 正寻求在11月中旬尽快上市。尽管去年净亏损近420亿美元,但潜在投资者对该AI公司的估值高达2万亿美元。此次预期上市之际,Anthropic 正面临来自 OpenAI 的 renewed competition(重新加剧的竞争),以及外界对人工智能安全性的日益审视。德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨表示,极右翼政党“德国选择党”得到了俄罗斯的支持。
Meritt's remarks highlight a step up in rhetoric against his opposition which won two regional elections last month and is currently leading polls. Merittz made the claims during a speech in Müster yesterday without citing specific evidence portraying Russia as a destabilizing force in Germany and a threat to democracy. While some AFD politicians have had contacts with pro-Russian networks, there's no proof that Russia has financed the party or steered its policies.
梅尔茨的言论凸显了他对反对派修辞强度的升级,该反对派在上个月的两次地区选举中获胜,目前民调领先。梅尔茨昨日在明斯特发表演讲时作出上述指控,但未引用具体证据将俄罗斯描绘为德国的不稳定力量和对民主的威胁。虽然部分德国选择党(AFD)政客与亲俄网络有过接触,但没有证据证明俄罗斯为该党派提供资金或操纵其政策。
Unrest among high school students in France is growing. The government is warning protests have turned into urban violence and it's blaming the far-left. With more, here's Bloomberg's Tiwa Adabio.
法国高中生的动荡局势正在加剧。政府警告称抗议活动已演变为城市暴力,并将责任归咎于极左翼势力。更多详情,请看彭博社记者蒂瓦·阿达比奥的报道。
More than 400 French schools will remain closed today. That's after recent protests led to almost 2,000 arrests and over 200 injuries, according to the country's education minister. Government officials told reporters the far-left France unbowed party is behind the movement, citing an intelligence assessment. Students have been asking for more teachers, smaller class sizes, and reform of the system which allocates university places.
今天将有超过400所法国学校继续停课。此前最近的抗议活动导致近2000人被捕和200多人受伤,这是该国教育部长的说法。政府官员向记者表示,根据情报评估,“不屈法国”这一极左翼政党是此次运动的幕后推手。学生们要求增加教师数量、缩小班级规模,并改革分配大学学位的制度。
France's main student union have called for further demonstrations next week in a statement. In London, Tabio, Bloomberg Radio.
法国主要学生联盟在一份声明中呼吁下周举行进一步示威活动。这里是伦敦,Tabio,彭博广播。
Those are some of our top stories this morning. Taking a look at the markets now. Uh stocks 50 futures at last checker holding steady after the losses we saw across the European session yesterday. The stock 600 closed down 1.3%. CAC in Paris was down 1.6% and the Footsie in London down one and uh nearly 1 and.7% uh on the session. This morning uh futures on Wall Street are pointing to a higher open ahead of the jobs report that could be key for the Federal Reserve policy path uh later this month.
以上是我们要点新闻。现在来看看市场情况。截至最后检查,美股50期货持平,延续了昨日欧洲交易时段出现的跌幅。德国DAX指数下跌1.3%,巴黎CAC指数下跌1.6%,伦敦富时100指数下跌约1.7%。今早,华尔街期货指向高开,这将在本月底可能影响美联储政策路径的就业报告发布前提供指引。
S&P futures are higher by 4/10en percent and NASDAQ futures on the rise by a half percent. Taking a look at crude oil. It is uh down on the session by 410% on Brent with $101.92. The price of a barrel of Brent crude. West Texas Intermediates at 9230. Bloomberg dollar spot index is headed for a third weekly gain this session. It's down about a tenth percent, but it's the longest run of weekly gains since January of last year.
标普期货上涨0.4%,纳斯达克期货上涨0.5%。再看看原油。布伦特原油下跌0.410%,每桶价格为101.92美元。西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)为92.30美元。彭博美元现货指数本交易日有望实现第三周连涨。该指数下跌约0.1%,但这是自去年1月以来最长的周度连涨纪录。
In a moment, we're going to bring you the latest on the US carrier deployment to the Middle East with our head of coverage in the region, Stuart Livingston Wallace. And Bloomberg's Anthony Stevens is going to join us as well on the rush to safer government debt and why banks are in the firing line.
稍后,我们将连线驻该地区首席记者斯图尔特·利文斯顿·华莱士,为您带来美国向中东部署航空母舰的最新进展。彭博社的安东尼·史蒂文斯也将加入我们的节目,探讨各国争相购买更安全的政府债券的原因,以及为何银行业正面临冲击。
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力