耐克财报不及预期中国销售落后
Nike Earnings Disappoint as China Sales Lag
THE COUNTDOWN IS ON. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS THE CLOSE. ROMAINE: ON ONE HAND, THE ECONOMY IS GOOD. ON THE OTHER HAND, THINGS AIN'T SO GOOD. LIVE FROM BLOOMBERG HEADQUARTERS, I'M ROMAINE BOSTICK. EMILY: AND I AM EMILY GRAFFEO. LET'S GET A QUICK CHECK ON MARKETS. WHERE WE STAND ON THIS THURSDAY, THE S&P 500 IS HIGHER TODAY. THE EQUITY MARKET GETTING A LITTLE BIT OF RALLY AFTER ALL OF THAT MIXED ECONOMIC DATA THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK.
倒计时已经开始。你需要的一切，以在交易日收盘时占据优势。这里是《收盘》节目。罗曼：一方面，经济状况良好；另一方面，情况并不那么乐观。我从彭博总部现场报道，我是罗曼·博斯蒂克。艾米丽：我是艾米丽·格拉菲奥。让我们快速看一下市场。截至今天周四，标普500指数上涨。在所有本周出现的混合经济数据之后，股市出现了一小波反弹。
WHAT IS IT DOING TO TREASURIES? WE DO HAVE YIELDS LOWER BY ABOUT 10 BASIS POINTS, TO 4.7. THE LONGER END, NOT AS MUCH MOVEMENT. BUT YIELDS ARE LOWER DESPITE THE FACT WE ARE SEEING A MOVE HIGHER IN BRENT, UP ABOUT FOUR POINT 5%. BUT OVERALL, THE STORY HERE IS YIELDS LOWER. VICE CHAIR PHILIP JEFFERSON SAYING IT MIGHT TAKE MORE TIME BEFORE POLICYMAKERS CAN EVEN JUDGE WHETHER FURTHER RATE INCREASES ARE NEEDED TO SLOW INFLATION.
这对国债有什么影响？我们的收益率确实下降了约10个基点，至4.7%。长期端变动不大。但尽管布伦特原油价格上涨了约4.5%，整体收益率仍然下降。副主席菲利普·杰斐逊表示，政策制定者可能需要更多时间才能判断是否需要进一步加息来抑制通胀。
ROMAINE: WE HAD STOCKS ON THE BACK OF AN ENCOURAGING OUTLOOK FOR MACRON AND A DROP IN TREASURY YIELDS -- BUT THE GAINS AND MICRON SHARES MODEST COMPARED TO ITS OUTSIZED REVENUE AND EARNINGS GROWTH, AND THE BOND REALLY APPEARED TO BE MORE OF A FLIGHT TO SAFETY AFTER A DISORDERLY SELLOFF IN FRENCH BONDS AND A NEAR DOUBLING IN THE SPREAD BETWEEN ITALY AND GERMANY'S TWO YEAR YIELDS, THE BIGGEST DAILY JUNK WE HAVE SEEN THERE SINCE 2020.
罗曼：受马克龙前景鼓舞以及美债收益率下跌推动，股市上涨——但与其巨大的营收和盈利增长相比，美光科技（Micron）的涨幅 modest（温和）。债券似乎更像是避险资产，此前法国债券经历无序抛售，且意大利与德国两年期国债收益率利差接近翻倍，创下自2020年以来最大的单日垃圾债利差波动。
FURTHER PRESSURE ON U.S. ASSETS AMID REPORTS THE U.S. MAY BE GEARING UP FOR A FRESH LITERARY OPERATION IN IRAN. BUT THAT IS BEING COUNTERBALANCED BY RELATIVELY UPBEAT EXPECTATIONS FOR TOMORROW'S MONTHLY PAYROLLS REPORT. THAT REPORT COULD BOLSTER THE NARRATIVE AROUND THE RESILIENCY WE HAVE BEEN SEEING IN HOUSEHOLD INCOMES AND IN CONSUMER SPENDING. AN IT BE GREAT IF IT ALL WERE JUST ONE CLEAN NARRATIVE IN ONE DIRECTION OR ANOTHER?
随着美国可能准备对伊朗发动新一轮军事行动的报道，美国资产面临进一步压力。但这被明日月度非农就业报告相对乐观的预期所抵消。该报告可能加强关于家庭收入和消费支出韧性的叙事。如果所有事情都能朝着一个清晰的方向发展，那该有多好？
BUT IT IS NOT. THIS MORNING'S REPORT SHOWED A HEALTHY LINE OF DEMAND FOR U.S. MANUFACTURERS, WITH ORDER BACKLOGS RISING TO THE HIGHEST SINCE FEBRUARY. BUT WHILE PRODUCTION EXPANDED, IT WAS AT A SLOW PACE. THE GAUGE OF RAW MATERIAL PRICES ROSE TO THE HIGHEST SINCE MAY, AND SUPPLIER DELIVERY TIMES CONTINUE TO LENGTHEN. IT RAISES A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STATE OF MANUFACTURING. WHO BETTER TO KICK US OFF TO THE CLOSE THAN THE BIGGEST HVAC SUPPLIER IN THE COUNTRY?
但事实并非如此。今日早间的报告显示，美国制造商的需求线健康，订单积压量升至2月份以来的最高水平。但生产扩张速度缓慢。原材料价格指数升至5月份以来最高，供应商交货时间持续延长。这引发了许多关于制造业现状的问题。谁能比美国最大的暖通空调（HVAC）供应商更适合作为我们收盘节目的开场嘉宾呢？
KEVIN MURPHY IS THE CEO OF FERGUSON AND JOINS US RIGHT NOW. KEVIN, GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON THE PROGRAM. BEFORE WE GET SPECIFICALLY TO YOUR BUSINESS, I WANT YOUR GENERAL THOUGHTS RIGHT NOW ABOUT THE STATE OF MANUFACTURING, BECAUSE WE KIND OF SAW AT THE START OF THIS YEAR WE KIND OF EMERGE FROM THIS MULTIYEAR SLUMP IN MANUFACTURING, KIND OF BUOYED BY A LOT OF FACTORS. I'M WONDERING IF YOU ARE STILL SEEING THAT MOMENTUM HEADING INTO THE FINAL THREE MONTHS OF THE YEAR.
凯文·墨菲是弗格森公司的首席执行官，现在与我们连线。凯文，很高兴你能参加我们的节目。在深入探讨你的业务之前，我想先听听你对制造业现状的总体看法，因为我们在今年年初看到制造业似乎从多年的低迷中复苏，这在很大程度上得益于多种因素的推动。我想知道在进入年底最后三个月之际，你是否仍然看到这种势头持续存在。
GREAT TO BE WITH YOU AND THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. AND YES, WE DO SEE IN OUR NONRESIDENTIAL BUSINESS, WHICH IS ROUGHLY HALF OF OUR REVENUE BASE, THAT CONTINUED GROWTH IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR. WE ALWAYS GO TO DATA CENTERS FIRST, AND THAT DATA CENTER CONSTRUCTION AND BUILDOUT CONTINUES FOR US. WE SEE OPEN ORDER VOLUMES GROWING IN OUR NONRESIDENTIAL BUSINESS FASTER THAN OUR REVENUES WERE GROWING AS WE EXITED Q2. WE SEE IT BUILDING NOT ONLY IN DATA CENTER CONSTRUCTION, BUT POWER GENERATION.
很高兴与你交流，感谢邀请我。是的，在我们的非住宅业务（约占我们收入基础的一半）中，我们看到制造业部门持续增长。我们始终将数据中心放在首位，数据中心建设和扩建对我们来说仍在继续。随着第二季度结束，我们看到非住宅业务的订单量增长速度快于我们的收入增长速度。我们看到这不仅体现在数据中心建设上，还体现在发电领域。
WE SEE IT IN WATER AND WASTEWATER INFRASTRUCTURE, PHARMACEUTICALS AND BIOTECHNOLOGY, MINING AND MINERALS. WE ALSO SEE IT IN GENERAL MANUFACTURING AND ON SHORING. THAT CONTINUES TO BE THE GROWTH DRIVER IN WHAT IS NOT THE GREATEST OVERALL NONRESIDENTIAL PICTURE. ROMAINE: I AM CURIOUS ON THE DATA CENTER FRONT. THIS HAS BEEN A TAILWIND FOR YOU AND YOUR COMPETITORS AS WELL. HOW LARGE RIGHT NOW IS THE BACKLOG FOR YOU IN THE DATA CENTER SPACE, RELATIVE TO YOUR OVERALL EARNINGS AND OVERALL REVENUE?
我们在水利和污水处理基础设施、制药和生物技术、采矿和矿物领域也看到了这一点。我们在一般制造业和回流（onshoring）方面也能看到这一点。尽管整体非住宅前景并非最佳，但这仍然是增长的驱动力。罗曼：我对数据中心方面很好奇。这一直是你和你的竞争对手的顺风因素。目前你在数据中心领域的积压订单规模相对于你的整体盈利和总收入有多大？
AND IS THERE ANY SORT OF CONCERN AT ALL ABOUT THE PACE OF SPENDING OR THE POTENTIAL SLOWDOWN IN THE PACE OF SPENDING? ASK IT IS THE BIGGEST PART OF WHAT WE WOULD TERM THAT LARGE CAPITAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECT GROWTH. THAT IS THE PRINCIPAL DRIVER OF GROWTH IN OUR NONRESIDENTIAL BUSINESS. THE DATA CENTER PORTION IS ROUGHLY HALF OF THAT GROWTH THAT WE ARE SEEING AN OVERALL NONRESIDENTIAL MAJOR PROJECTS. THE LARGE CAPITAL PROJECTS SPEND IS A BIT MORE DIVERSIFIED.
是否对支出速度或支出速度可能放缓有任何担忧？这是我们要归类的大型资本建设项目增长的最大部分。这是我们非住宅业务增长的主要驱动力。数据中心部分约占我们看到的整体非住宅大型项目增长的一半。大型资本项目支出则更加多元化。
IT IS IN AREAS LIKE POWER GENERATION, WATER, PHARMACEUTICAL. WHEN WE SEE THAT BUILDOUT, WE SEE ROUGHLY 4000 PROJECTS WITH OVER 6 TRILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF OVERALL CONSTRUCTION SPEND ATTACHED TO IT OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. IT IS A LARGE PIPELINE, AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT BUILDING WITHOUT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF HESITATION. EMILY: I WANT TO STAY ON AI. YOU MENTIONED NOT A LOT OF HESITATION. WE HAVE BEEN HEARING ABOUT LOCAL PUSH BACK TO THE CONSTRUCTION OF SOME OF THESE AI-RELATED PIECES OF INFRASTRUCTURE, PARTICULARLY DATA CENTERS.
它涉及发电、水和制药等领域。当我们看到这种扩建时，我们大约有4000个项目，未来五年内与之相关的总体建筑支出超过6万亿美元。这是一个庞大的管道项目，我们继续看到建设在进行，几乎没有出现大量的犹豫。艾米丽：我想继续谈谈人工智能。你提到没有太多的犹豫。我们一直听到当地对建设一些与人工智能相关的基础设施（特别是数据中心）的反对声音。
HOW ARE YOU NAVIGATING THAT? ARE YOU SEEING THAT MUCH PUSHBACK REALLY DELAYING ANY CONSTRUCTION?
你们是如何应对这一情况的？你们是否看到大量的阻力正在真正延迟任何施工？
WE CERTAINLY RECOGNIZE THE CONCERNS THAT ARE OUT THERE IN THE LOCAL COMMUNITIES. WE HAVE NOT SEEN A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF CANCELLATION OR PAUSE. WE HAVE SEEN SHIFTS IN GEOGRAPHY, WHERE PROJECTS ARE BEING LOCATED. WHEN YOU LOOK AT OUR IMPACT INSIDE OF THOSE PROJECTS, WE ARE LOOKING TO SOLVE A LOT OF THOSE CONCERNS THAT MAY EXIST INSIDE THE COMMUNITIES. WE ARE LOOKING TO SOLVE WHAT THE POWER SOURCE LOOKS LIKE, IN MANY CASES BEHIND THE METER INSIDE OF THOSE DATA CENTER PROJECTS.
我们确实认识到当地社区中存在的担忧。我们并没有看到大量的取消或暂停。我们看到的是项目选址的地理分布发生了变化。当我们审视这些项目内部的影响时，我们正在努力解决社区内可能存在的诸多担忧。在许多情况下，我们正在努力解决数据中心项目内部“表后”电源供应的问题。
WE ARE ALSO LOOKING TO MAKE SURE WE ARE ADDRESSING WHAT IT IS FOR RAW WATER SOURCING, WATER TREATMENT ON SITE, AND CLOSED LOOP SYSTEMS FOR COOLING OF CHIPS TO MAKE SURE WE ARE MORE EFFICIENT AND THE USE OF THAT PRECIOUS WATER RESOURCE. EMILY: HOW IS THE MARKET LOOKING FOR THE KINDS OF TRADES PEOPLE THAT YOU NEED TO HIRE? IS IT EASIER OR HARDER THAN A FEW YEARS AGO TO FIND THESE SKILLED WORKERS?
我们也在确保解决原水获取、现场水处理以及芯片冷却闭环系统等方面的问题，以提高效率并节约宝贵的水资源。艾米丽：市场对你们需要招聘的各类技工的需求情况如何？与几年前相比，找到这些熟练工人是更容易还是更难了？
OUR WORKFORCE, WE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. OUR CUSTOMER WORKFORCE ON THE CONTRACTOR SIDE OF THE WORLD REMAINS PRESSURED. WE STILL SEE IT. MORE RETIREMENTS OF THE TRADES THAN WE SEE JOINING THE TRADES. WE ARE VERY MUCH ADVOCATES OF HAVING KITCHEN TABLE CONVERSATIONS BETWEEN PARENTS AND YOUNG PEOPLE ABOUT WHAT A CAREER IN THE TRADES CAN MEAN. THAT IS A PRESSURE POINT THAT IS OUT THERE IN TERMS OF HOW PROJECTS GET COMPLETED ON TIME.
我们的劳动力状况相当良好。承包商一侧的客户劳动力市场仍然承压。我们依然能看到这种情况：退休的技工数量多于新加入该行业的技工数量。我们非常倡导父母与年轻人之间进行‘餐桌对话’，探讨从事技工职业意味着什么。就项目能否按时完成而言，这是一个突出的压力点。
WHEN YOU LOOK AT OUR BUSINESS, WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO DO, AND OUR PEOPLE ACROSS ALL 50 STATES, ALL PROVINCES AND CANADA, WAKE UP EVERY DAY, TRYING TO DRIVE CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTIVITY FOR THE TRADE PROFESSIONAL. IF WE CAN HELP THEM COMPLETE A JOB ON TIME, IF WE CAN HELP THEM GET ONE MORE PROJECT DONE DURING THE DAY, WE THINK WE WILL GAIN SHARE AND GAIN MARGIN. THAT IS WHAT WE WAKE UP TRYING TO DO EVERY SINGLE DAY. ROMAINE: I HAVE TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE HOUSING ENVIRONMENT.
当你们审视我们的业务、我们试图做的事情，以及遍布全美50个州、所有省份和加拿大的员工时，他们每天醒来都在努力提升专业技工的施工生产力。如果我们能帮助他们按时完工，如果能在一天内帮助他们多完成一个项目，我们认为我们将赢得市场份额并提升利润率。这就是我们每天醒来所致力于做的事情。罗曼：我必须向你询问一下住房环境的情况。
OBVIOUSLY, RESIDENTIAL IS A BIG PART OF YOUR BUSINESS. WE ARE SPEAKING ON A DAY WHEN THE AVERAGE MORTGAGE RATE IN THE U.S. IS AT 7.3%. IS THERE ANY CONCERN ABOUT ANY POTENTIAL HIT TO RESIDENTIAL DEMAND, GIVEN THE RISE WE SEE IN BORROWING COSTS? KEVIN: RESIDENTIAL DEMAND IS A TOUGH ENVIRONMENT RIGHT NOW. WE DON'T SEE ANY REAL NEAR-TERM CATALYST THAT IS GOING TO CAUSE A MAJOR CHANGE AND UPWARD MOMENTUM AROUND THE HOUSING MARKET, IN NEW CONSTRUCTION AS WELL AS IN THAT REPAIR/REMODEL SECTOR BECAUSE OF EXISTING HOME TURNOVER BEING A BIT DEPRESSED.
显然，住宅业务是你们业务的重要组成部分。我们在美国平均抵押贷款利率高达7.3%的这一天发表讲话。鉴于借贷成本的上升，你们是否担心住宅需求会受到潜在冲击？凯文：目前的住宅需求环境十分艰难。我们没有看到任何短期内会导致房地产市场（包括新建建筑和因现有房屋交易量低迷而影响的维修/翻新领域）发生重大变化和向上势头的催化剂。
THAT SAID, WE ARE PLEASED BECAUSE WE GREW IN OUR RESIDENTIAL MARKETS, AND WE GREW AGAINST A MARKET THAT WAS PRETTY CHALLENGING. WE SEE THE REPAIR SIDE OF THE BUSINESS HOLDING UP IN A MORE HEALTHY WAY. FRANKLY, OUR FERGUSON HOME BUSINESS IS WELL-POSITIONED FOR THE PREMIUM AND LUXURY SPACE. THAT HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL ON THE REMODEL SIDE OF THE WORLD IN PARTICULAR. BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT THAT HOUSING MARKET RATE AND OVERALL AFFORDABILITY IS CHALLENGING.
话虽如此，我们感到欣慰，因为我们在住宅市场实现了增长，并且在相当具有挑战性的市场环境中再次实现了增长。我们看到业务中的维修部分以更健康的方式保持稳定。坦率地说，我们的 Ferguson Home 业务在高端和豪华领域处于有利地位。这在翻新领域表现尤为出色。但是，当我们审视住房市场时，房价和整体可负担性正面临挑战。
WHEN WE LOOK OUT, IT REALLY IS A QUESTION OF WIN, NOT IF. WE REMAIN UNDER BUILT IN TERMS OF HOUSING STOCK, AND WE STILL HAVE A HOUSING STOCK THAT IS OVER 40 YEARS OLD. AS YOU LOOK AT THE NEED TO REPAIR AND REMODEL, THAT IS GOING TO BE A HEALTHY MARKET. IT IS A MATTER OF WOMEN, NOT IF. ROMAINE: HVAC GROWTH, A HUGE BRIGHT SPOT. I KNOW YOU CANNOT TALK ABOUT NUMBERS GIVEN THE
展望未来，这真的是‘何时赢’的问题，而不是‘是否赢’的问题。我们的住房存量仍有建设空间，而且我们现有的住房存量中有超过 40 年房龄的房屋。随着对维修和翻新的需求增加，这将是一个健康的市场。这是‘何时赢’的问题，而非‘是否赢’。罗梅恩：暖通空调（HVAC）增长是一个巨大的亮点。我知道由于……的原因，你不能谈论具体数字。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力