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派拉蒙华纳合并获批10月6日交割,Netflix回应估值质疑

Bloomberg Tech Screentime Special | Bloomberg Tech

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好莱坞行业格局重塑的关键节点:派拉蒙-华纳合并正式落地及高管架构调整,叠加Netflix对估值逻辑与增长质量的直接澄清,是传媒板块投资者必须关注的结构性变化。

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. Bloomberg Tech is live from the heart of Silicon Valley with Ed Lello in San Francisco.

彭博音频工作室播客、广播、新闻。《彭博科技》直播自硅谷中心,由位于旧金山的爱德·莱洛主持。

Welcome to a special edition of Bloomberg Tech live from Bloomberg Screen Time in Los Angeles. Coming up this hour, we'll bring you conversations with some of the biggest names in the entertainment industry. And of course, AI is front and center. We'll be speaking with entrepreneurs and leaders across a changing tech and media landscape. I want to get to the big entertainment story today, which is Paramount's $ 110 billion Warner Bros. deal.

欢迎来到《彭博科技》特别版,本次直播地点为洛杉矶的彭博屏幕时间(Bloomberg Screen Time)。在接下来的一个小时里,我们将带来娱乐行业一些最知名人物的对话。当然,人工智能依然是焦点所在。我们将与在不断变化的科技和媒体格局中创业的企业家和领导者进行交流。今天我想先谈谈重大的娱乐行业新闻,即派拉蒙以1100亿美元收购华纳兄弟的交易。

It is cleared to move forward. A federal judge has approved a settlement with a dozen states, and the companies now expect the merger to close October 6th. Timely. Bloom's Lucas Shaw leads our media and entertainment coverage, leads the screen time team, and we're here at screen time. But that was a big headline. Let's start with this is cleared. It's going to close.

交易已获准推进。一名联邦法官已批准与各州达成的和解协议,两家公司预计合并将于10月6日完成。时机恰当。卢卡斯·肖(Lucas Shaw)负责我们的媒体和娱乐报道,领导屏幕时间团队,我们此刻就在屏幕时间现场。但这确实是个大头条。让我们从“已获批准”这一点开始,交易即将关闭。

Yeah. I we knew it was going to close as soon as the state AG's and the Writers Guild of America settled their lawsuit saying, you know, we we feel like you have agreed to certain conditions that make us satisfied. and David Ellison, the the chairman and CEO of Paramask Guidance, who will be the chairman and CEO of the Combined Company, is wasting no time making changes with staffing and leadership. And I expect we'll just see news pretty much every day over the next couple weeks.

是的。我们知道一旦各州总检察长和美国作家协会(Writers Guild of America)达成诉讼和解,交易就会关闭,他们说:“我们认为你们已同意某些使我们满意的条件。”派拉蒙集团(Paramount Group)董事长兼首席执行官大卫·埃利森(David Ellison),他将成为合并后公司的董事长兼首席执行官,正毫不浪费时间地推进人事和领导层的变动。我预计在未来几周里,几乎每天都会看到相关新闻。

There are also sort of uh details coming out now about what that new company looks like. Uh what does it look like on paper?

现在还有一些关于这家新公司具体面貌的细节浮出水面。嗯,它在纸面上看起来是什么样的?

Well, we know a couple things. One is that Cindy Holland, who's been the head of streaming for Paramount Sky Dance, and who had previously been a top executive at Netflix, has left. And everybody believes that that means that Casey Bl who will be speaking at this conference later today will be in charge of streaming. That is what something that we have reported and something that I think others have reported as well.

嗯,我们知道几件事。首先,辛迪·霍兰德(Cindy Holland)已经离职。她曾担任派拉蒙天空舞(Paramount Skydance)的流媒体业务负责人,此前曾是Netflix的高管。大家都认为这意味着凯西·布洛(Casey Blotner,注:原文疑似拼写错误,指Casey Bloys)将在今天稍后的这次会议上发言,并将负责流媒体业务。这是我们报道过的内容,我认为其他人也报道过。

Uh the the big news also yesterday was that they announced Enon Kry who has been the CEO of Mattel is joining as the co-CEO of the combined company. a little weird because David Ellison is the CEO, but you can think of Enan as the person who's going to come in and really run things dayto-day, cut a lot of cost, restructure, like all the nasty stuff that David Ellison doesn't want to be kind of stuck with is Enan's job.

此外,昨天的大新闻是他们宣布美泰(Mattel)首席执行官尤恩·克里(Ynon Kreiz,注:原文Enon Kry/Enan为音译误差,标准译名为Ynon Kreiz)将加入并担任合并后公司的联席首席执行官。这有点奇怪,因为大卫·埃利森是首席执行官,但你可以把尤恩看作那个将进来真正日常运营公司、大幅削减成本、进行重组的人——所有那些大卫·埃利森不想沾手的棘手事务,都是尤恩的工作。

Okay, so last night we kicked things off here in in Hollywood with a conversation with Netflix co Ted Sandos. And obviously it's in the past now, but the opportunity that Netflix had seen with Warner Brothers Discovery, you talked about that quite a lot. Let's just listen to a little bit of it. The plan was solid. Um I think we we and we certain we won the deal at some point. So we priced it right. Um at our scale that was the top price point where I thought we could return value to our shareholders with that asset.

好的,昨晚我们在好莱坞拉开了序幕,与Netflix联合创始人泰德·萨兰多(Ted Sarandos)进行了一场对话。显然这已成为过去,但Netflix当时从华纳兄弟探索公司(Warner Bros. Discovery)身上看到的机会,你对此谈得很多。我们来听一小段。计划很扎实。嗯,我认为我们肯定在某一点上赢得了这笔交易。所以我们的定价很合理。以我们的规模而言,那是我认为能就该资产为股东创造回报的最高价位点。

Any more than that I didn't I thought we'd be taking into negative territory. I think macro point now that it is Paramount Skydance, Warner Brothers Discovery, the landscape shifting a bit and Ted Sarando's and you talked about how Netflix kind of is going to respond, how they're going to get growth in the future. It's tricky for him because I think prior to Netflix going after that deal, they were seen as the the biggest entertainment company on the block and just all things were going very well, it seemed for them. and their pursuit of Warner Brothers discovery, rightly or wrongly, triggered a lot of skepticism because people started to wonder why are they doing this?

超过这个价位我就觉得会进入负收益区间了。我认为现在的宏观背景是派拉蒙-天空之舞(Paramount Skydance)、华纳兄弟探索公司,格局正在发生一些变化,而泰德·萨兰多和你谈到Netflix将如何回应、未来将如何实现增长。这对他们来说很棘手,因为我认为在Netflix追求那笔交易之前,他们被视为业内最大的娱乐公司,一切似乎都进展顺利。而他们追逐华纳兄弟探索公司的举动,无论对错,都引发了大量质疑,因为人们开始想知道:他们为什么要这么做?

Ted talked about it last night. It sort of changed the narrative for the company. And he says he's okay with that. It was a deal that was worth going for, but it has hurt them and their response right now is basically we don't need to do anything dramatic. We were in a good position before that and that has not satisfied investors. Uh it's a huge uh agenda today here here in Hollywood. Preview some of it. um you know and and and the big questions this industry is genuinely debating while we're all gathered.

泰德昨晚谈到了这一点。这在某种程度上改变了该公司的叙事。他表示对此可以接受。这是一笔值得争取的交易,但它确实损害了他们的利益,而他们目前的回应基本上是我们不需要采取任何激进措施。在那之前我们的处境很好,但这并未让投资者满意。嗯,今天在这里的好莱坞有一个巨大的议程。让我们预览其中部分内容。嗯,你知道的,以及当我们所有人聚集在一起时,这个行业真正在辩论的重大问题。

Well, look, the the Paramount Warner Brothers deal, even though we know it's going to happen, is still top of mind for everyone because they're wondering what it's going to look like. So, we have Casey Boyd, as I mentioned. We also have Jerry Cardelli, who is David Ellison's deal guy, one of the largest shareholders in Paramount Sky Dance. I'm excited for both of those conversations. We have Dana Walden, who's the number two at the Walt Disney Company.

好吧,看,派拉蒙-华纳兄弟的交易,尽管我们知道它即将达成,仍然是每个人脑海中首要关注的问题,因为大家都在猜测它将呈现何种面貌。所以,我们有凯西·博伊德(Casey Boyd),正如我之前提到的。我们还有杰里·卡德莱利(Jerry Cardelli),他是大卫·埃利森(David Ellison)的交易操盘手,也是派拉蒙-天空之舞(Paramount Skydance)的最大股东之一。我对这两场对话都充满期待。我们还有丹娜·沃尔登(Dana Walden),她是华特迪士尼公司(Walt Disney Company)的二号人物。

We have not had Disney at this event before, so I'm excited for that. Obviously, a company of great interest. AI as a topic as you mentioned the top of the show. That's big. I think you're gonna have Mikey Schulman, the CEO of Sunno on the show. I'll be interviewing him with uh with our colleague Ashley Carman this afternoon. So, that should be fun. Uh Blue Mos Lucas Shaw, leader of of our screen time team and this annual event.

我们之前没有在这个活动上邀请过迪士尼,所以我对此很兴奋。显然,这是一家极具关注的公司。正如你提到的,AI 是本次活动的头号话题,这很重要。我认为 Mikey Schulman,Sunno 的首席执行官,将会出现在节目中。今天下午我将与我们的同事 Ashley Carman 一起采访他。所以,那应该会很有趣。Uh Blue Mos Lucas Shaw,我们屏幕时间团队的负责人以及这一年度活动的领导者。

Thank you very much indeed. I just want to stay with Netflix. Ted Sarando says the streaming giant needs to move faster. And when Lucas sat down with the Netflix co-CEO to talk about engagement, the push into live programming and the company's strategy for growth, he uh he was pretty strong. Listen to this.

非常感谢。我只想继续谈谈 Netflix。Ted Sarando 表示这家流媒体巨头需要加快步伐。当 Lucas 坐下来与 Netflix 联合首席执行官讨论参与度、向直播节目推进以及公司的增长战略时,他的观点相当强硬。听一下这段。

We are growing engagement. Uh so we're growing on 200 billion hours of watching. We grew 2%, you know, in our last announcement,

我们的参与度正在增长。Uh 所以我们观看时长达到了 2000 亿小时。在我们上一次公告中,我们增长了 2%,你知道的,

right? But 2% is not what people are hoping for out of you, right? They're used to double digit growth in at least in certainly in revenue and to some extent even in viewership, they'd expect more. This is my this is my point about the the growth in general. Yes, overall we're not growing as fast as I want us to and we're working on on making that move faster. We are though also doing things that create a lot of headwind to that number.

对吧?但 2% 并不是人们对你期望的增长率,对吧?他们习惯于至少两位数的收入增长,以及在某种程度上甚至观众人数的增长,他们期望更多。这就是我关于整体增长的观点。是的,总体而言,我们没有达到我希望的增长速度,我们正在努力加快步伐。不过,我们也做了一些给这个数字带来逆风的事情。

Meaning when we do live programming on Netflix, which is a relatively new thing, um we spend about 5% of our content budget on live events. They generate about 1% of our watching.

意思是当我们在 Netflix 上进行直播节目制作时,这是一件相对较新的事情,um 我们大约将内容预算的 5% 用于直播活动。它们产生的观看量约占我们总观看量的 1%。

Right? Now they all but they do a very different job than

对吧?现在它们虽然……但它们所做的工作与

they generate a lot of signups. They're really effective for

它们带来了大量的新用户注册。它们在

signup retention advertising all those things that they do but it creates engagement headwind and how you invest against it. Um and remember when I say we grew 2% that's an easy number to sneeze at but it's through all the growth of live. It's through incredible headwinds from things like the World Cup and world sports and all those things that are going on too. So it is a we are growing the business. We want to keep growing it faster.

用户注册留存、广告等所有方面都非常有效,但这会给参与度带来逆风,以及你如何投资来应对它。Um 记住,当我提到我们增长了 2% 时,这是一个容易被轻视的数字,但这是在包含直播增长的情况下实现的。这也是因为世界杯和全球体育赛事等带来的巨大逆风,以及其他正在进行的事件。所以,我们确实在增长业务。我们希望保持更快的增长速度。

This past quarter we did double digit revenue growth in every c in every region of the world. So the business is great and growing fine. Um I do I mean if you asked me when we if we were growing at 20% I'd be telling you I wish we were growing faster.

上个季度,我们在世界每个地区都实现了两位数的收入增长。所以业务状况良好且增长正常。Um 我是说,如果你问我当我们以 20% 的速度增长时,我会告诉你我希望我们增长得更快。

Right. So but when you said you wish you were going faster and we're working on it. What are the things that you are working on to kind of reacelerate that that growth?

对。所以当你说你希望增长得更快,并且我们正在为此努力时。你们正在做些什么来重新加速这种增长呢?

Well these are some of the things are in the expansion of what we do. So live was an expansion of what we did that didn't necessarily bring more gross engagement but it brings very valuable engagement. So it's not a mystery that all engagement is not equal because if it's it's you probably are not surprised to know that an hour of judge duty in the middle of the day does not generate as much revenue as an hour of NFL football.

嗯,这些是我们业务扩展中的一些内容。直播就是这样一个扩展,它不一定能带来更高的总参与度,但带来了非常有价值的参与。因此,并非所有参与度都等同这一点并不神秘,因为如果你知道在白天进行一小时的裁判工作所产生的收入远不如一小时的美式橄榄球比赛,你可能也不会感到惊讶。

And so those

所以那些

I saw some CPM chart recently that showed what you make per view versus what YouTube makes per view and yours is higher.

我最近看到一张CPM(每千次展示成本)图表,显示了每观看一次你能赚多少钱与YouTube每观看一次能赚多少钱的对比,你的更高。

Yeah, we generate more. We monetize better. our programming monetizes better. Now we do we're looking constantly of how do we do things to bring more value to the members more things to watch more ways to watch all those things. So that is some of these things that are and and I I don't want to overcharacterize things like podcast a

是的,我们产生更多的收入。我们的变现效果更好。我们的节目变现效果更佳。我们现在不断审视如何做事,以便为会员带来更多价值、更多可观看的内容以及更多的观看方式等。这些都是其中的一些方面,我不想过度概括像播客这样的东西

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