美债收益率走高，法国预算与Micron财报成焦点
Investors Are Driving Government Bond Yields Higher
涵盖美债收益率、法国主权债务风险及美股前瞻三大核心宏观变量，提供当日关键交易线索。
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1. HERE'S WHAT'S ON THE AGENDA. GLOBAL BONDS GLAD TO SEE THE BACK OF SEPTEMBER WHICH LEFT 30 YEAR YIELDS AT A 24 YEAR HIGH. THE FRENCH PRIME MINISTER GETS READY TO SET OUT AS BUDGET WITH SPREADS AT DOUBLE EARLY SUMMER LEVELS. MICRON GETS A BULLISH FORECAST WHICH DOESN'T DO MUCH FOR ITS MARKET STOCK BUT NASDAQ FUTURES ARE HIGHER. TOM: THE STRENGTH IN TERMS OF THE NUMBERS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR MICRON UNDERPINNING THE POSITIVE PICTURING NASDAQ FUTURES RIGHT NOW.
10月1日，星期四。以下是今日议程要点：全球债券市场庆幸摆脱了9月的阴霾，此前30年期收益率曾创下24年来的高点。法国总理准备公布预算方案，此时利差已回升至初夏时的双位数水平。美光科技给出乐观预测，但这对其股价提振有限，而纳斯达克期货则走高。汤姆：从数据表现和美光的展望来看，这种强劲势头为当前走高的纳斯达克期货提供了支撑。
AS THINGS STAND, SET FOR A STRONG SESSION. EUROPEAN OPEN. FUTURES POINTING LOWER. STARTED STRONG YESTERDAY AND THEN ENDED UP DOWN HALF OF A PERCENT ON EUROPEAN STOCKS. THE 10 YEAR STATESIDE AFTER CORE INFLATION COME IN -- CAME IN SOFTER THAN EXPECTED. YOU ARE SEEING STEEPENING ACROSS THE CURVE. BRENT IS BACK BELOW 00 A BARREL. $97 PER BARREL. THE COUNTDOWN TO THE OPENING TRADE STARTS RIGHT NOW. GUY: FIRST OF OCTOBER.
就目前形势而言，预计将迎来强势交易日。欧洲开盘，期货指向下跌。昨日开局强劲，但随后欧洲股市收跌0.5%。美国10年期国债收益率因核心通胀数据低于预期而走低。你正在看到收益率曲线陡峭化。布伦特原油重回每桶97美元以下。交易倒计时现在开始。盖伊：10月1日。
LAST QUARTER IS IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR. ARE WE GETTING 6% IN THIS QUARTER? THAT IS THE KEY QUESTION. YESTERDAY'S DATA PUSHING YIELDS HIGHER ONCE AGAIN. GDP PRINT WAS REALLY STRONG. THERE'S IMPORT FACTORS IN TERMS OF THE MIX BUT THE DATA IS STRONG AT THE MOMENT COMING OUT OF THE UNITED STATES. PCE STORY CAN LOWER BUT THAT WAS THE REVISION FACTOR. ARE WE FINALLY DONE WITH THAT DEBATE? LOOK AT THE COMPONENT PART. THEY DON'T PLAY -- PAINT A DISINFLATIONARY PICTURE.
上一季度已成过去。本季度能否实现6%的增长？这是关键问题。昨日数据再次推高收益率。GDP数据确实强劲。尽管存在结构性因素，但目前来自美国的数据依然强劲。PCE（个人消费支出物价指数）故事可能有所降温，但那主要是修订因素的影响。我们是否终于结束了这场争论？看看各个组成部分。它们描绘了一幅去通胀的画面。
AND YOU'VE GOT CORE SERVICES ACCELERATING. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO AN INFLATION PROBLEM THE FED STILL HASN'T DEALT WITH. IF YOU CAN SEE THAT IN BREAKEVENS. ARE WE GOING TO 6%? IS THAT GOING TO BE THE NARRATIVE OF THE NEW QUARTER? THE BOND MARKET IS ON ALERT. ANNA: DIFFICULT TO PIVOT AWAY FROM THE THINGS WE'VE BEEN DEALING WITH IN SEPTEMBER. WHEN OUR COLLEAGUES RIGHT DOWN 10 REASONS WHY WE ARE ENTERING UPON SELLOFF, YOU KNOW THAT EVEN IF YOU FIX PART OF THAT, AN END THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST, THERE WOULD BE OTHER THINGS TO WORRY ABOUT.
而且你看到核心服务通胀在加速。所有这些都指向一个美联储尚未解决的问题——通胀。如果你能在盈亏平衡点中看到这一点。我们是否会达到6%？这会成为新季度的叙事主线吗？债券市场处于警戒状态。安娜：很难摆脱我们在9月份所应对的那些问题。当我们的同事列出我们进入抛售潮的十大理由时，你要知道，即使你解决了其中一部分问题，比如结束中东冲突，还有其他事情值得担忧。
THERE WOULD BE GROSS TO THINK ABOUT. THERE WOULD BE TRADE WARS POTENTIALLY, CHANGING TREASURY OWNERSHIP THESE DAYS. EVEN IF WE WERE TO SEE THESE ISSUES GO AWAY FOR THE BOND MARKET, DOESN'T SEEM EASY TO WIPE THEM ALL AWAY JUST BECAUSE WE GOT INTO OCTOBER. GUY: WASN'T THE PICTURE YESTERDAY DECENT DATA? YET YOU ARE NOT SEEING A WAGE PRICE SPIRAL. THAT'S NOT HAPPENING. WE ARE NOT GETTING SECOND ROUND EFFECTS. STRONG ECONOMY.
还有大量其他因素需要考虑。潜在贸易战的威胁、近期美国国债持有结构的变化等。即使这些对债券市场构成困扰的问题消失，似乎也不容易仅仅因为进入10月就将它们全部抹去。盖伊：昨天的数据不是不错吗？然而你并没有看到工资-价格螺旋上升。这种情况并未发生。我们没有看到第二轮效应。经济依然强劲。
INFLATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM. ANOTHER DAY, OIL PRICES BELOW 00 PER BARREL. GUY: ALSO, THIS IS ACCELERATING. 50% OF THE BASKET IS NORTH OF 3%. FINE. LOOK AT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. I AGREE, IT IS INCREDIBLY LOW RIGHT NOW. WE WILL GET EMPLOYMENT DATA LATER ON THIS WEEK. THE PRESSURE IS COMING IN TERMS OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WE WILL GET TO MICRON ON A MOMENT -- IN A MOMENT. WHAT'S A BIG STANDOUT FEATURE IN TERMS OF THE NUMBERS THEY DELIVER?
通货膨胀是一个主要问题。另一天，油价低于每桶00美元。Guy：此外，这正在加速。篮子里50%的商品涨幅在3%以上。好吧。看看消费者信心指数。我同意，现在它低得惊人。我们将在本周晚些时候获得就业数据。压力正体现在接下来会发生什么方面。我们马上会谈到美光（Micron）。就他们提供的数据而言，一个突出的亮点是什么？
GREAT OUTLOOK. THE PICTURE LOOKS POSITIVE FOR NOW. BUT WAGES ARE THE FACTORS THAT ARE STARTING TO WEIGH. YOU ARE STARTING TO SEE WAGES STARTING TO COME THROUGH IN TERMS OF THE NARRATIVE. GUY: WHETHER WE PIVOT HERE IS -- ANNA: WHETHER WE PIVOT HERE'S A QUESTION. THE LEVEL OF YIELDS TO THE WEAKEST IN THE MIX IS ONE WORTH CONTEMPLATING. THE LOWEST LEVEL OF JUNK AND WE ARE MORE THAN 1000 BASIS POINTS ABOVE TREASURIES. THAT HAS MOVED REALLY QUICKLY.
前景很好。目前形势看起来是积极的。但工资是开始产生拖累的因素。你开始看到工资开始在叙事中体现出来。Guy：我们是否会在此转向——Anna：我们是否会在此转向是个问题。收益率处于混合中最弱势的水平，这是一个值得深思的问题。垃圾债收益率处于最低水平，且比国债高出1000个基点以上。这一变化非常快。
AS WE HEAR FROM OUR GUESTS, IT'S THE PACE OF CHANGE THAT MATTERS AND THE REASON, NOT THE LEVELS. 860 BASIS POINTS AT THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THAT STORY IS MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY. NOT HELPFUL FOR FRANCE EITHER. THE HIGHER BOND YIELD ENVIRONMENT. AT A TIME WHEN THE GLOBAL BONDS ARE ALL ABOUT HOW YOUR YIELDS, IT SEEMS THAT THE SPREAD IS WIDENING FOR FRANCE. 120 BASIS POINTS. WE HAVE A NEW BUDGET. SET OUT TODAY. THE THING WE ARE WATCHING FOR, AS WELL AS THE SURVIVAL OF THE PRIME MINISTER, IS WHAT THEY ARE ABLE TO DO ON THE DEFICIT. 5.4% FOR 2026.
正如我们从嘉宾那里听到的，重要的是变化的速度以及原因，而不是水平。9月初为860个基点。这个故事进展得相当快。这对法国也没有帮助。债券收益率环境较高。在全球债券都在关注你的收益率时，法国的利差似乎在扩大。120个基点。我们有一份新预算。今天公布。我们要关注的除了总理的生存之外，还有他们在赤字方面能做什么。2026年为5.4%。
ARE THEY ABLE TO BRING IT DOWN FOR 5%? DOES THE GOVERNMENT SURVIVE AS IT TRIES TO DO THAT? GUY: THE FRENCH OFFICE INDICATED THAT IT WILL ASSUME RECORD NUMBERS OF BONDS NEXT YEAR. SO YEAH. YOU CAN GET THE DEFICIT DOWN BUT YOU ARE STILL ISSUING LOTS OF DEBT. 126 OR SOMETHING IN TERMS OF THE SPREAD. TOM: YES. GUY: AT WHAT POINT DO THE INSTITUTIONS OF EUROPE START TO HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THIS? 130, 140, 150? WHEN DO WE START TO GET INSTITUTIONAL PUSHBACK?
他们能否将其降至5%以下？政府试图做到这一点时能否存活下来？Guy：法国财政部表示，明年将承担创纪录的债券发行量。所以是的。你可以降低赤字，但你仍在大量发行债务。利差约为126基点。Tom：是的。Guy：欧洲的机构会在什么时候对此开始感到问题？130、140、150？我们何时开始看到机构的反对？
THAT'S WHAT TRADERS WILL BE THINKING THAT -- ABOUT IN TERMS OF THEIR POSITIONING. HOW MUCH FURTHER OUT CAN THIS GO UNTIL YOU START TO GET EUROPE RALLYING AROUND? TOM: INTEREST A COST FRANCE OF 91 BILLION EUROS. MORE THAN EDUCATION, MORE THAN DEFENSE. GDP OF 120 PERCENT. YOU POTENTIALLY GET A DEFICIT OF 6% DEPENDING ON HOW THE BUDGET UNFOLDS. SO THAT'S A MAJOR TOPIC. WE WILL SEE HOW THEY REACT. ANNA: BEFORE WE GET TO SPECIAL MEASURES, THERE IS SOME OTHER SORT OF NUMBER WE NEED TO BE AWARE OF. 59.3.
这就是交易员们在思考关于他们的头寸定位的问题。这种情况还能持续多久，直到你开始看到欧洲围绕此展开反弹？Tom：利息成本使法国损失了910亿欧元。多于教育，多于国防。GDP占比120%。根据预算的展开情况，赤字可能达到6%。所以这是一个主要话题。我们将看他们如何反应。Anna：在我们进入特别措施之前，还有一些其他数字我们需要意识到。59.3。
THE ARTICLE IN THE FRENCH CONSTITUTION THAT MIGHT BE RELIED ON FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO GET THIS THROUGH EVEN IF THEY CAN'T PASS IT BY THE LEGISLATORS. IF THEY CAN SAY WE PASS THIS, OTHERWISE YOU HAVE TO DO A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE. IF THEY ARE NOT PREPARED TO DO THAT, IT PASSES. GUY: IF SHE THINKS SHE CAN WIN THE ELECTION NEXT YEAR, SHE WOULD WANT TO BACK THIS. ANNA: THAT'S THE CHANGE THIS TIME AROUND VERSUS OTHER FRENCH DRAMAS.
法国宪法中可能供政府借此推动此事通过的条款，即使立法机构无法通过。如果他们说我们通过了，否则你就必须发起不信任投票。如果他们不准备这么做，那就直接通过。Guy：如果她认为自己在明年的选举中能赢，她会支持这项举措。Anna：这就是此次与以往法国政治戏剧的不同之处。
GUY: MARINE LE PEN DOESN'T WANT TO FIND YOURSELF IN A SITUATION WHERE EUROPE IS HAVING TO PROTECT FRANCE. THAT WILL COME WITH CONDITIONALITY AND THAT WILL TIE HER HANDS. TOM: TRYING TO GET MORE LEEWAY ON THE DEFICIT IN ITALY BECAUSE OF ENERGY COSTS. LET'S TALK ABOUT OTHER COST MEASURES. THIS IS SOMETHING YOU ZEROED IN ON, MICRON AND THE EARNINGS THAT CAME THROUGH. ONE OF THE KEY LINES WAS THAT GROSS MARGINS ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE BIT SLIM.
Guy：玛丽娜·勒庞不想让自己陷入欧洲不得不保护法国的境地。这将附带条件，从而束缚她的手脚。Tom：由于能源成本问题，试图在意大利获得更大的赤字灵活性。让我们谈谈其他成本措施。这是你重点关注的领域，美光（Micron）及其发布的财报。其中关键的一条是毛利率将略显微薄。
STILL NORTH OF 80%, AROUND 83% GROSS MARGINS. THEY WILL BE NARROWER BECAUSE THEY ARE RAISING COMPENSATION FOR THEIR EMPLOYEES AS THEY SEE THIS SIGNIFICANT DEMAND. IT WAS A CLEAN BEAT FOR MICRON. FOR THE CURRENT QUARTER, IT WAS A BEAT IN TERMS OF PROFITS, REVENUES. EXPECTED REVENUES NORTH OF 61.5 BILLION. A REMINDER THAT THE DEMAND CYCLE AROUND AI IN THE U.S. REMAINS STRONG. BUT THEY WILL BE PUTTING UP WAGES. GUY: IT'S INTERESTING.
仍在80%以上，约为83%的毛利率。由于他们看到显著的需求增长，正在提高员工薪酬，因此利润率会收窄。这对美光来说是一次干净的业绩超越。对于本季度，其在利润和收入方面均超出预期。预期收入超过615亿美元。提醒一下，美国围绕人工智能的需求周期依然强劲。但他们将提高工资。Guy：这很有趣。
HE WROTE A PIECE THIS MORNING THAT TALKED ABOUT THE PROFIT BUBBLE. THIS IS WHAT YOU ARE SEEING IN TERMS OF THE INFLATION RECORD. SPECTACULAR. THERE'S A CLEAR CONCENTRATION IN THE CHIPS AT THE MOMENT. THAT'S THE POINT IN THE CYCLE WE ARE AT. AT SOME POINT ULTIMATELY, DO WE REVERSE? YOU ARE GETTING A RELATIVELY MUTED RESPONSE OFF THE BACK OF THE MICRON NUMBERS BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE GOING, HOW LONG CAN THIS LAST FOR? THIS IS AMAZING AND GREAT, BUT CAN I TRACK THIS FOR QUARTERS OUT, EIGHT QUARTERS OUT?
他今天早上写了一篇关于利润泡沫的文章。这正是你在通胀记录方面看到的情况。令人惊叹。目前芯片领域存在明显的集中度。这是我们处于周期的某个阶段。最终，我们是否会逆转？由于美光的数字，人们的反应相对平淡，因为大家在想：这种情况能持续多久？这太棒了，但我能追踪到几个季度之后呢？八个季度之后呢？
ANNA: WE ARE MINDFUL OF THE FACT THAT IT IS THE FIRST OF OCTOBER AND PEOPLE ARE STARTING WITH A CLEAN SLATE. MAKING NEW DECISIONS, NEW CALLS. WHAT DO I WANT TO BE EXPOSED TO IN OCTOBER? ESPECIALLY AFTER THE DROPS IN THE STOCKS. GUY: WE'VE ALSO ROLLED ON BRENT. JUST A MECHANICAL FACTOR AS TO WHY OIL IS LOWER. YOU GO FROM NOVEMBER TO DECEMBER. UBS WEALTH MANAGEMENT. FRANCE CIO ON DECK. WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW. LABORIOUS CEO, THE LEGAL AI PLATFORM IS GOING TO BE JOINING US.
Anna：我们要意识到，今天是10月1日，人们开始从零开始。做出新的决定，新的判断。在10月我想接触什么？尤其是在股市下跌之后。Guy：我们也已经过渡到布伦特原油。油价下跌只是一个机械性因素。从十一月到十二月。瑞银财富管理（UBS Wealth Management）。法国首席投资官即将登场。我们需要知道什么。Laborious首席执行官、Legal AI平台即将加入我们。
LOOKING FORWARD TO THAT CONVERSATION. TOM: LET'S LOOK AHEAD TO WHAT ELSE WE ARE WATCHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 9:00 U.K. TIME. ANDREW BAILEY SPEAKING AT THE FUTURE OF MONEY CONFERENCE. LISTENING OUT FOR ANYTHING INTERESTING HE HAS TO SAY. U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS, BUILDING ON THE DATA AND THE COLOR AROUND THE LABOR FORCE. 2:30, CHRISTINE LAGARDE SPEAKING AT THE EUROPEAN SYSTEMIC RISK AWARDS ANNUAL CONFERENCE IN FRANKFURT. LATER, OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS IN FOCUS.
期待接下来的对话。汤姆：让我们展望全天还将关注哪些动态。英国时间上午9点，安德鲁·贝利将在“货币的未来”会议上发表演讲。留意他可能提到的任何有趣内容。美国初请失业金人数，结合劳动力市场的数据和背景信息。下午2:30，克里斯蒂娜·拉加德将在法兰克福举行的欧洲系统性风险委员会年度颁奖典礼上发言。稍后，其他央行官员也将成为焦点。
FED SPEAK FROM CHRIS WALLER, LISA COOK, TOM BARKIN, LORIE LOGAN. NIKE EARNINGS AS WELL AFTER MARKET. THAT WILL BE INTERESTING AS WE LOOK AT THE MACRO DATA ON THE CONSUMER POINTING TO STRENGTH. ANNA: PASSENGERS AND CREW OF A FLIGHT ARE HAILED AS HEROES AFTER SUBDUING A PILOT WHO TRY TO CRASH THE PLANE TRAVELING FROM DUBAI TO TEL AVIV. MORE ON THAT LATER IN THE PROGRAM. PLUS, THE STOCKS WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING AT THE EUROPEAN OPEN.
美联储发言人包括克里斯·沃勒、丽莎·库克、汤姆·巴尔金和洛丽·洛根。耐克财报将在盘后发布。随着我们审视指向消费者强劲表现的宏观数据，这将非常值得关注。安娜：一架从迪拜飞往特拉维夫的航班上，乘客和机组人员因制服一名试图迫降飞机的飞行员而被赞为英雄。节目稍后将对此作更多报道。此外，还有我们今天早晨在欧洲开盘时关注的股票。
EUROPEAN TECH SPACE. HOW MUCH WILL IT PARTICIPATE IN ENTHUSIASM AROUND MI
欧洲科技板块。它将在多大程度上参与围绕MI的热情？
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更进一步：量化金融体系
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