美债收益率攀升至6%引发市场震荡，专家称尚未触及极端水平
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英国30年期国债收益率突破6%是罕见的宏观市场信号，直接反映全球无风险利率中枢上移与通胀粘性现实。内容提供了对美债收益率潜在区间（5.5%-5.75%）及尾部风险的具体讨论，有助于投资者理解当前债券市场的定价逻辑与流动性隐患，建议关注宏观利率走势对各类资产估值的影响。
NEWS MAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS "THE PULSE" WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE. WELCOME TO "THE PULSE." I’M FRANCINE LACQUA IN LONDON. BONDS PLUNGING IN EUROPE TODAY WITH THE U.K. 30-YEAR YIELD REACHING 6% FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS CENTURY. IT IS A ROCKY START TO THE FINAL THREE MONTHS OF THE YEAR AFTER GLOBAL BONDS SAW THEIR WORST QUARTER SINCE 2004. SPENDING ON AI REVIVES -- INFLATION FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY.
新闻人物与市场动向。这是由弗朗辛·拉库主持的《脉搏》。弗朗辛：大家早上好，欢迎收看《脉搏》。我是身在伦敦的弗朗辛·拉库。欧洲债券今日暴跌，英国30年期收益率本世纪首次触及6%。在全球债券市场迎来2004年以来最差季度表现后，今年最后三个月开局艰难。人工智能支出复苏——世界经济面临通胀压力。
MICRON DELIVERS AN UPBEAT FORECAST BUT NOT WITHOUT WARNING. THE LATEST ON THE TECH STORY VERY SHORTLY. LET’S START WITH THAT BOND SELLOFF WHICH IS GATHERING PACE. YIELDS AND MILESTONES IN A NUMBER OF MARKETS THIS MORNING. OUR GUEST IS TURNING BULLISH ON U.S. TREASURIES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SIX YEARS. I HAVE SO MUCH TO ASK YOU. ONE OF THE MOST READ STORIES ON THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL, THE REASON WHY BOND YIELDS AREST ARE CLIMBING AROUND THE WORLD.
美光科技给出乐观预测，但并非没有警告。关于这一科技故事的最新动态稍后带来。让我们从正在加速的债券抛售开始说起。今晨多个市场的收益率和关键节点引人注目。我们的嘉宾六年来首次对美国国债持看涨观点。我有许多问题想请教您。彭博终端上阅读率最高的报道之一，解释了为何全球债券收益率持续攀升。
THE OF THERE IS DEBATE ON THE REASONS WHY.
人们就在原因何在存在争论。
WHERE SHOULD A BOND YIELD BE? WHETHER YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT EUROPE, THE UNITED STATES OR ANYBODY ELSE. THE ANSWER IS HOW DISASTER YOUR ECONOMY GROWING ON A NOMINAL BASIS? NOMINAL INCLUDES INFLATION. IF YOU HAVE A COMBINATION OF INFLATION AND YOUR REAL GROWTH MOVING HIGHER, I THINK IN MOST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, THAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING THEN YOUR BOND YIELDS ARE GOING TO START TO MOVE UP. THIS IS REALLY WHAT PEOPLE ARE STRUGGLING WITH.
债券收益率应该处于什么水平？无论讨论的是欧洲、美国还是其他国家。答案在于你的经济在名义基础上增长如何？名义增长包含通胀因素。如果通胀和实际增长同时走高，我认为这在大多数发达国家已经发生，那么你的债券收益率将开始上升。这正是人们所面临的困境所在。
ARE BOND YIELDS TOO HIGH? ARE THEY CHOKING THE ECONOMY? I WOULD ARGUE FOR THE MOST, WITH MORE OF A U.S.-SEPTEMBER RICK VIEWPOINT HERE, NO THEY ARE NOT. THEY SHOULD BE AT THESE HIGHER LEVELS AND ARE MOVING AT THESE HIGHER LEVELS. FRANCINE: WHEN SOME OF THESE KEY THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN IN THE PAST, -- IS THAT FAIR?
债券收益率是否过高？它们是否在扼杀经济？在此我更倾向于一种类似9月里克的观点，我认为并非如此。它们理应处于这些较高水平，并且确实在向这些较高水平移动。弗朗辛：过去当一些关键阈值被突破时——这公平吗？
IF YOU WANT TO TURN THAT ARGUMENT AROUND, PEOPLE SAY BOND YIELDS RISE UNTIL SOMETHING BREAKS. THAT IS ANOTHER THING THAT PEOPLE ARE WORRIED ABOUT. THAT IS TRUE. HISTORICALLY THEY RISE UNTIL SOMETHING BREAKS BUT TYPICALLY THAT IS AN OUTSIZED MOVE. MAYBE THAT HAPPENS LATER DOWN THE LINE BUT I DON’T THINK WE’RE NEAR THAT LEVEL NOW. YOU’RE SEEING THAT -- BUT YOU’RE SEEING THAT NERVOUSNESS IN OTHER MARKETS LIKE EQUITY MARKETS ARE WOBBLING EVERY TIME BOND YIELDS GO UP BECAUSE THEY ARE AFRAID SOMEBODY WILL REPORT A LOSS OR A PROBLEM BECAUSE OF HIGHER YIELDS.
如果你反过来论证这个观点，人们常说债券收益率会一直上升直到某处崩溃。这是人们担忧的另一件事。确实如此。历史上，收益率往往上升到某处崩溃才会停止，但这通常是一次剧烈的波动。也许这种情况会在稍后发生，但我认为我们目前尚未接近那个水平。你看到的是——但你也在其他市场看到这种紧张情绪，比如股市每当债券收益率上涨就会动摇，因为人们担心高收益率会导致亏损或出现问题。
FRANCINE: HOW FAR CAN THEY GO?
弗朗辛：它们还能涨多高？
I DON’T THINK THEY NEED TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN THEY ARE RIGHT NOW. YOU KNOW, AGAIN, FROM THE U.S. CENTRIC POINT, WE’RE ABOUT 530 ON THE 10-YEAR NOTE. I THINK THEY CAN GO TO 550 OR 575. TO START TO GET IN IT ABOUT 5.25. FRANCINE: WHAT ARE THE ENTRY POINTS? ARE YOU WAITING FOR A CERTAIN LEVEL TO GET IN?
我认为它们不需要比现在高太多。你知道，再次从以美国为中心的角度来看，我们10年期国债收益率大约在530个基点。我认为它们可以涨到550或575。开始入场大约在5.25%。弗朗辛：入场点是什么？你在等待某个特定水平再入场吗？
I ALREADY HAVE. WITHIN THE LAST WEEK. IF THE YIELDS WERE TO START TO MOVE TOWARD SIX, I WOULD PROBABLY GET MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BUYING BONDS. BECAUSE THERE IS A YIELD NOW. THERE IS A RETURN NOW IN BONDS UNLIKE WHERE THERE WAS SIX YEARS AGO. THAT’S WHY I THINK THEY PRESENT GOOD VALUE. EVEN AT THESE LEVELS, IF YOU WERE TO BUY BONDS TODAY AND A YEAR FROM NOW, THEY WERE ONE FULL PERCENTAGE POINT HIGHER, YOU WOULD STILL WALK AWAY WITH A SMALL PROFIT BECAUSE OF THE BIG YIELDS WE HAVE NOW.
我已经有了。在过去的一周内。如果收益率开始向6%移动，我可能会更积极地买入债券。因为现在债券有收益率，现在有回报，这与六年前不同。这就是为什么我认为它们具有不错的价值。即使在当前水平下，如果你今天买入债券，而一年后收益率高出整整一个百分点，你仍然会获得小幅利润，因为我们现在的收益率很高。
FRANCINE: 6%. YOU STILL DO A ABOVE IT YOGA. CAN THEY DO 8%?
弗朗辛：6%。你仍然在上面做瑜伽。它们能到8%吗？
THAT WOULD HAVE TO BE EITHER -- THAT WOULD BE WHERE YOU GO TO BREAK THINGS ON IF THE INFLATION PROBLEMS THAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW RAN AWAY FROM US, THAT WOULD BE PROBABLY ENERGY DRIVEN. IF THE ENERGY MARKETS GOT REALLY AWAY FROM US AND REALLY PUSHED INFLATION HIGHER, THEN YOU COULD PROBABLY SEE THAT. I DON’T THINK THAT IS IN THE CARDS. FRANCINE: LET’S SAY IT IS AT 6.5. WHAT ACTUALLY BREAKS? SIT A HEDGE FUND? THESE TREASURIES ARE ALSO -- THEY HAVE CHANGED.
那必须是——那将是导致事物崩溃的地方，如果我们目前的通胀问题失控，那可能是由能源驱动的。如果能源市场真的失控并真正推高通胀，那么你可能会看到这种情况。我不认为这会发生。弗朗辛：假设它在6.5%。什么实际上会崩溃？对冲基金吗？这些国债也——它们已经改变了。
THE BULK OF TREASURIES ARE NOT OWNED BY JUST BIG HEDGE FUNDS.
大部分国债并非仅由大型对冲基金持有。
YES. THERE IS TWO THINGS THAT COULD BREAK BASICALLY THE BOND MARKET, THE FINANCIAL MARKETS IN THE ECONOMY ARE STRUCTURED FOR A CERTAIN LEVEL OF INTEREST RATES AND A CERTAIN TYPE OF WAY MARKETS TRADE. WHEN THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THAT, THINK FOUR YEARS AGO, WITH THE LIABILITY DELIVER INVESTING PROBLEM WHEN U.K. GILTS WENT UP. THAT HAVE YOU OF INVESTING WAS NOT SET UP FOR THAT RAPID RISE IN YIELDS AND THAT CAUSED PROBLEMS.
是的。有两件事可能会破坏债券市场，经济中的金融市场是为一定水平的利率和某种特定的市场交易方式构建的。当它们偏离这一点时，想想四年前，当英国金边债券上涨时的负债驱动投资问题。那种投资结构没有为收益率的快速上升做好准备，这就导致了问题。
THAT’S THE FEAR. IF RATES MOVE TOO FAR, TOO FAST, THAT H WE WOULD FIND THE ASSUMPTIONS BUILT INTO SOMETHING. THE FINANCIAL MARKET, IT IS SO COMPLICATED, NOBODY KNOW WHAT IS THAT SOMETHING IS BUT THEY KNOW WHEN YOU START PRESSING MARKETS TO EXTREMES, THOSE PROBLEMS WILL ARISE. AGAIN, I WANT TO EMPHASIZINGS I DON’T THINK WE’RE AT THOSE EXTREMES NOW. I’M STILL PRETTY COMFORTABLE -- NOT BEING WORRIED ABOUT IT BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE YIELD RISE START TO SLOW DOWN IN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO.
这就是恐惧所在。如果利率移动得太远、太快，我们会发现内置于某些东西中的假设被打破。金融市场如此复杂，没有人知道那个‘某些东西’是什么，但他们知道当你开始将市场推向极端时，这些问题就会出现。再次强调，我不认为我们现在处于那些极端水平。我仍然相当舒适——不为此担心，但我希望看到收益率上升的速度在接下来的几周或两周内开始放缓。
FRANCINE: WHAT WOULD SLOW IT DOWN?
弗朗辛：什么会让它放缓？
A BELIEF EITHER THAT INFLATION IS GOING TO STABILIZE, NOT NECESSARILY GO DOWN BUT STABILIZE OR A BELIEF THAT NOTHING IS GOING TO BREAK. THAT WE’RE -- I THINK PART OF PROBLEM TOO COULD BE SELF-FULFILLING. SOMETHING GOING TO BREAK. I HAVE TO GET OUT OF THE MARKET AHEAD OF IT. HOPEFULLY SOMETHING COMES ALONG ALONG THOSE LINES. FRANCINE: THE CONCERN IS ALL OF THIS CAPEX SPENDING. THAT HAS TO BE INFLATIONARY. YOU HAVE ENERGY AND DEFENSE SPENDING.
一种信念，即认为通胀将趋于稳定，不一定下降，而是稳定；或者认为不会有什么事情会崩溃。我们——我认为部分问题可能也是自我实现的。会有事情发生崩溃。我必须在那之前退出市场。希望会出现一些符合这些情况的事情。弗朗辛：担忧在于所有的资本支出（CAPEX）支出。这必然具有通胀性。你有能源和国防支出。
ALL THREE OF THOSE AND THE OTHER THING YOU HAVE WHICH IS THE BIGGEST DRIVER OF STICKY INFLATION IS DEGLOBALIZATION. IF YOU GO BACK BEFORE COVID, GOOD INFLATION WAS DEFLATIONARY. PRICES WERE GOING DOWN BECAUSE WE WERE IMPORTING FROM ASIA EVER CHEAPER GOOD. DON’T DO THAT NOW. WE HAVE DEGLOBALIZATION. WE HAVE WARS. TARIFFS, SUPPLY CHAIN PROBLEMS. ALL OF THOSE THINGS TOGETHER WITH ENERGY, THE SPEND ON -- THE CAPEX SPEND, PLUMBERS AND CEMENT BECAUSE OF THE DATA CENTERS WE’RE BUILDING.
这三者以及你提到的另一件事，即粘性通胀的最大驱动因素，是非全球化。如果你回到新冠疫情之前，良好的通胀是通缩性的。价格正在下降，因为我们从亚洲进口越来越便宜的商品。现在不要那样做。我们有非全球化。我们有战争。关税、供应链问题。所有这些与能源、支出——资本支出、水管工和水泥，因为我们要建造数据中心。
FRANCINE: YOU DON’T RECHANGE SUPPLY CHINAS OH CHAINS. GETTING MORE -- SUPPLY CHINAS.
弗朗辛：你不会重新连接供应链。获得更多——供应链。
NOT FEAR THAT IT IS GOING TO MOVE UP MORE. IT DOESN’T JUST DISINFLATE. IT IS NOT GOING TO GO DOWN. AT THAT TIME IT IS STUCK IN THE 3% RANGE. WHEN BOND YIELDS WENT TO 5% AND STARTED TO ADJUST SAYING THIS IS A REALITY. THERE IS NO MORE 2% AS THE FED LIKES TO TARGET. IT IS 3 SOMETHING. FRANCINE: SHOULD WE TARGET INFLATION AT 3% JUST BECAUSE OF THE WAY THAT THE ECONOMIES HAVE CHANGED?
不是担心它会进一步上升。它不仅仅是去通胀。它不会下降。在那个时候，它被卡在3%的区间。当债券收益率达到5%并开始调整，说这是现实时。美联储喜欢瞄准的2%目标已经不存在了。它是3点多。弗朗辛：鉴于经济方式的改变，我们是否应该将通胀目标定为3%？
WHO IS WE? THE CENTRAL BANK, THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL NEVER SAY THAT. BECAUSE OVER THE K-SHAPED ECONOMY, IF THEY CAME OUT AND SAID YOU’RE TALKING THE BOTTOM OF THE K, I CAN’T HELP YOU ANYMORE. MAYBE WE IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS SHOULD START THINKING THREE IS THE TARGET WE SHOULD LOOK AT FROM 2024 TO 2026 THE FED CUT RATES BY 1.75%, OVER SIX FED RATE CUTS BUT THE 10-YEAR YIELD MOVED UP FROM 3.7 TO OVER 5. HAS THE FIRST TIME IN 450 YEARS THAT WE HAD A CUTTING -- 450 YEARS THAT WE HAD A CUTTING CYCLE.
谁是“我们”？中央银行，美联储永远不会这么说。因为在K型经济中，如果他们出来并说你是在谈论K的底部，我再也帮不了你了。也许我们在金融市场的人应该开始思考3是我们应该关注的目标，从2024年到2026年，美联储降息1.75%，超过六次美联储降息，但10年期收益率从3.7上升到超过5。这是我们450年来首次经历降息周期——450年来我们经历了降息周期。
YOU ARE TOO EASY. UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THIS POLICY. THERE IS STICKY INFLATION. STRONGER GROWTH. SUPPLY CHAIN PROBLEMS. ALL OF THAT ADDED TOGETHER DID NOT WARRANT YOU BEING AGGRESSIVE IN CUTTING AND I’VE USED THIS LINE A LOT. BOND TRADE LETTERS STOP PANICKING WHEN THE FED STARTS PANICKING. IF YOU’RE NOT GOING TO BE WORRIED ABOUT THE INFLATION AND HIGHER GROWTH AND DEFICIT, I DON’T WANT TO OWN BONDS. THAT’S WHY THE YIELDS ROSE DURING THE THAT CUTTING CYCLE.
你太容易了。对这项政策感到不舒服。存在粘性通胀。强劲增长。供应链问题。所有这些因素加在一起，并不证明你在激进降息是正确的，我用过这句话很多次。债券交易信在美联储开始恐慌时停止恐慌。如果你不担心通胀、更高增长和赤字，我不想持有债券。这就是为什么收益率在那段降息周期期间上升的原因。
FRANCINE: THE MARKET IS SUDDENLY THE ADULT IN THE ROOM?
弗朗辛：市场突然成为房间里最成熟的人？
THE BOND MARKET VIGILANTE. THE MARKET IS LOOKING AT ITS OWN INTEREST. FIXED INCOME SECURITY MEAN WHAT IS THE CORD SAYS. A CERTAIN FIXED AMOUNT OF MONEY EVERY YEAR. WHAT I DON’T WANT IS THAT MONEY TO BE DEVALUED. INFLATION GOES UP AND I BUY LESS THINGS WITH THAT MONEY EVERY YEAR BECAUSE OF HIGHER PRICES. IF YOU GOING TO BE OK WITH THAT INFLATION GOING UP OR NOT SHOWING THE URGENCY THAT THE MARKET SEES, INVESTORS ARE GOING TO LOOK OTHER PLACES AND THAT’S WHAT THEY ARE DOING.
债券市场的“赏金猎人”。市场正在审视自身的利益。固定收益证券意味着什么？科德（Cord）表示，每年支付一笔固定的金额。我不希望这笔钱贬值。随着通货膨胀上升，由于物价上涨，我每年能用这笔钱买到的东西越来越少。如果你对此不以为然，或者没有表现出市场所感受到的紧迫感，投资者就会将目光转向其他地方，而他们正是这么做的。
IT IS NOT BEING THE CUT IN THE ROOM. THEY ARE SAYING IF YOU’RE NOT GOING TO BE WORRIED ABOUT THIS, I HAVE TO PUT MY MONEY SOMEWHERE ELSE. NOT IN FIXED INCOME SECURITY AND YIELDS GO UP. FRANCINE: I WANT TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT AI. ANDREW BAILY SAYS THE MARKET NEEDS TO BE PREPARED. THE CENTRAL BANK IS WATCHING SOARING ASSET PRICES CLOSELY AND IS READY TO ASSURE THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM REMAINS RESILIENT. THE CONCERN IS FIRST OF ALL WE HAVE SAFETY CONCERNS.
这并非空穴来风。他们的意思是，如果你对此不担忧，我就必须把钱投到别处。不再投入固定收益证券，收益率随之上升。弗朗辛（Francine）：我想和你谈谈人工智能。安德鲁·巴利（Andrew Bailey）表示，市场需要做好准备。央行密切关注飙升的资产价格，并准备确保金融体系保持韧性。首要的担忧是我们存在安全问题。
YOU HAVE AGENT
你拥有智能体（Agent）
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力