美光财报后股价承压，OpenAI指控Moonshot提取数据
AI Boom Powers Micron Earnings, OpenAI Blames Moonshoot for Data Extraction
美光财报揭示了AI存储行业从周期性向长期合约模式的转变，直接影响半导体估值逻辑；OpenAI与Moonshot的数据争议涉及AI核心资产安全。建议关注存储芯片板块估值重构及AI巨头间的合规风险。
SHERY: THIS IS "THE ASIA TRADE." I'M SHERY AHN. TOP STORIES THIS HOUR -- A ROOF OPEN AHEAD FOR ASIA AFTER WALL STREET FALLS TO CLOSE OF THE MONTH -- CLOSE OUT THE MONTH. TEAM U.S. INFLATION READING. MACRON GIVES AN UPBEAT FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT QUARTER, FUELED BY THE AI BUILDING FORENSIC, BUT WARNS PROFIT MARGINS WILL NARROW. AND OPEN A I ACCUSES CHINA'S RIVAL MOONSHOT OF EXTRACTING DATA FROM ITS SYSTEMS. HAIDI: TAKE A LOOK AT THE SET UP.
谢丽：这里是《亚洲贸易》。我是谢丽·安。本小时头条新闻——在华尔街因月末收盘而下跌后，亚洲市场迎来新的开局——结束本月。美国通胀数据出炉。马克龙对当前季度给出乐观预测，受AI建设推动，但警告利润率将收窄。OpenAI指控中国竞争对手Moonshot从其系统中提取数据。海迪：看看这个布局。
AS TROUBLING AS IT IS RETREATING ACROSS ASIA, IT'S GOING TO BE A CHALLENGING START AS WE GET INTO THE START OF TRADING THIS THURSDAY SESSION ACROSS AS PART OF THE WORLD. THE U.S. CLOSE DID NOT HELP MUCH AT ALL. THE S&P 500 FALLING AT THE END OF THE WORST MONTH SINCE JUNE. FUELED BY SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED INFLATION DATA WITH MONEY MARKETS AND RECALIBRATION FROM THE FED RATE HIKE IN OCTOBER, NO LESS THAN A 40% CHANCE.
尽管亚洲各地的撤退令人担忧，但随着我们进入周四交易时段，这将成为一个充满挑战的开始。美国的收盘情况并没有起到太大帮助作用。标普500指数在本月最糟糕的月份（自六月以来）结束时下跌。由于通胀数据低于预期，加上货币市场对美联储10月加息预期的重新校准，加息的可能性至少为40%。
PCE NUMBERS, OF COURSE, RISING BY .2% IN AUGUST. CONSUMER SPENDING ON TOP OF THAT RISING AT THE FASTEST PACE IN OVER A YEAR. THE ECONOMY CLEARLY STILL PERSISTENT DESPITE THESE INFLATION TROUBLES. A LITTLE BIT A WEAKNESS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OPEN PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE TECH HEAVY KOSPI. MORE MODERATED WHEN IT COMES TO JAPAN STOCKS. THIS IS NOT HELPING THE ENERGY COMPONENT OF THESE WORRIES. OIL HOLDING GAINS AS WE WAY THAT PROSPECT -- WEIGH THAT PROSPECT OF RECOVERY AROUND MIDDLE EAST FLOWS.
当然，8月份PCE数字上升了0.2%。消费者支出在此之上以一年多来最快的速度增长。尽管存在这些通胀问题，经济显然仍然具有韧性。当我们进入开盘时，特别是在科技股主导的KOSPI方面，出现了一些疲软迹象。日本股市的情况则相对温和。这无助于缓解对这些担忧中的能源部分。油价保持涨势，我们权衡中东供应恢复的前景。
BRENT CRUDE, UP 2%. WE ARE SEEING FLOWS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST CLOSE TO PREWAR LEVELS BUT SUPPLIES OF COURSE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. THAT'S DOLLAR INDEX ALSO SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF A PULLBACK. MARK CRANDALL JOINS US FOR MORE ON THE MARKETS. TAKE US THROUGH THE TAKE AWAY FROM MARKETS WHEN IT COMES TO THE DATA WE HAD OUT OVERNIGHT. MARK: THE PCE DATA WAS REASSURING IN THE SENSE THAT IT WAS NO WORSE THAN ANYBODY EXPECTED.
布伦特原油上涨2%。我们看到来自中东的流量接近战前水平，但供应当然并不稳定。美元指数也出现小幅回调。马克·克兰德尔加入我们要更多了解市场情况。请带我们回顾一下隔夜数据带来的市场启示。马克：PCE数据令人放心，因为它并不比任何人预期的更糟。
IT DOES NOT GIVE THE FED ANY URGENCY TO GET ON WITH THE INTEREST RATE HIKES AND THAT'S WHY TRADERS ARE DIALING BACK OCTOBER. EXPECTING A RATE HIKE THERE. A COIN TOSS FOR THAT. DECEMBER STILL LOOKS LIKE IT, WE HAD COMMENTS THIS MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF RATE HIKES ON HIS PAD. THE BALANCES AND FEDERAL OF THE FED MOVING AT A RELATIVELY CONSTRAINED PACE. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THEY ARE INTERESTED ON WHAT MICRON TECHNOLOGY DID.
这并没有给美联储带来急于进行利率上调的任何紧迫感，这就是为什么交易员们正在撤回对10月的预期，原本预计那里会有加息。那就像抛硬币一样不确定。12月看起来仍然有可能，我们今天早上听到一些评论，提到他计划中有几次加息。美联储的步伐相对受限。更重要的是，他们关注的是美光科技做了什么。
THE STOCK WAS VOLATILE IN AFTER-HOURS TRADING BUT CAME BACK TO THE CLOSING LEVELS -- SLIGHTLY FIRMER IN THE TRADING. PEOPLE SEEM TO HAVE DECIDED THE OUTLOOK FOR AI DEMAND IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE FACT THAT MARGINS MAY NARROW SLIGHTLY. THAT SHOULD GIVE A DECENT START TO THE TECH FOCUSED STOCKS WE HAVE IN JAPAN, KOREA AND TAIWAN. A DECENT START TODAY. A BIT IS THE BEGINNING OF THE FINAL QUARTER OF THE YEAR. TRADITIONALLY IT IS A GOOD PERIOD FOR EQUITIES.
该股在盘后交易中波动，但收盘时回到收盘价水平——交易略有走强。人们似乎认为人工智能需求的前景比利润率可能略微收窄这一事实更重要。这应该为我们在日本、韩国和台湾持有的科技股带来一个不错的开局。今天是一个不错的开局。而一年中最后一个季度的开始通常对股市是有利的时期。
FRESH MONEY TO PUT TO WORK. PROBABLY A DECENT START IN ASIA EVEN WITH CHINA AND HONG KONG CLOSED. HAIDI: DO WE CONTINUE TO WORRY ABOUT THE YIELD SURGE WITH OIL NOT REALLY COMING DOWN AT THIS POINT? MARK: DEFINITELY. THAT WILL NOT GO AWAY. ESPECIALLY FOR THE LONG END OF THE CURVE. INVESTORS ARE SKITTISH ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH LONG-TERM TREASURIES. 10 AND 30 OR OPTIONS ARE COMING UP NEXT WEEK -- THE 30 WILL BE A HUGE TEST IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
新的资金准备投入运作。即使中国和香港休市，亚洲市场也可能迎来一个不错的开局。海迪：我们是否应继续担心收益率飙升，而油价目前并未真正下降？马克：当然会。这种情况不会消失。尤其是对于曲线远端。投资者对长期国债的动向感到担忧。下周将迎来10年期和30年期国债拍卖——在这种环境下，30年期国债将是一次巨大的考验。
THERE'S NOT MUCH APPETITE FOR PEOPLE TO GO INTO BONDS EVEN THOUGH YIELDS ARE WELL ABOVE 5.5% IN THE 30 YEAR. THERE'S CONCERN TO FACTORS MOVING IT WILL NOT CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. CRUDE OIL PRICES ARE HIGHER. THE U.S. FISCAL SITUATION IS NOT IMPROVING. THE FED IS RAISING INTEREST RATES BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH TO REALLY SLAM DOWN ON INFLATION. THEY ARE ATTACKING IT AT A GRADUAL PACE AND THAT IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE LONG END OF THE CURVE.
尽管30年期国债收益率远高于5.5%，但人们买入债券的兴趣并不大。市场担心推动收益率变化的因素在短期内不会改变。原油价格走高。美国财政状况并未改善。美联储正在加息，但速度不够快，无法真正遏制通胀。他们以渐进的方式应对通胀，这对于曲线远端来说还不够好。
THERE IS CONCERN'S INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS ARE NOT PUTTING MUCH MONEY INTO THE 30 YEAR WHEN THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE. YIELDS MAY BE LOWER IN JAPAN BUT THEY ARE THE HIGHEST AND 30 YEARS AND IT IS BEGINNING TO ATTRACT MONEY BACK INTO JAPAN PARTICULARLY WITH THE YEN BEING STABLE. THERE ARE ALTERNATIVES TO TREASURIES AND THAT IS A MAJOR PROBLEM UNLESS THE U.S. JUMPS IN AND STARTS IMPROVING THE FISCAL SITUATION. THE LONG END IT WILL STAY UNDER PRESSURE.
人们担心国际投资者在有其他选择的情况下，不会将大量资金投入30年期国债。日本的收益率可能较低，但30年期国债收益率仍是最高之一，并开始吸引资金回流日本，特别是随着日元保持稳定。除了美国国债外还有其他替代选择，这是一个主要问题，除非美国出手并着手改善财政状况。曲线远端将继续承压。
THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS HOW QUICKLY YIELDS MOVE. IF WE GET A SUDDEN MOVE TO 6%, THAT WILL BE DAMPENING ACROSS MARKETS. IT IS GRADUAL THAN EQUITIES CAN HANDLE IT. HAIDI: WHAT ARE WE WATCHING IN TERMS OF THE FX TRAJECTORY? DOLLAR STRENGTH OR RECOVERY HERE TO STAY? MARK: NOT NECESSARILY. YOU ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME OTHER CURRENCIES ATTRACT DECENT FLOWS. IT'S A MIXED PICTURE, YOU GOT A CURRENCY LIKE THE YUAN VERY STRONG, VERY CLEAR BACKING FROM CHINESE AUTHORITIES.
这里的主要关注点是收益率变动的速度。如果收益率突然升至6%，将对各个市场产生抑制作用。如果是渐进式的，股市可以承受。海迪：在外汇走势方面，我们在关注什么？美元走强或复苏是否会持续？马克：不一定。你开始看到其他货币吸引了可观的资金流入。情况喜忧参半，像人民币这样的货币非常强劲，得到了中国当局的明确支持。
THEY WANT TO KEEP THE MOMENTUM TO IMPROVE. THEY EXPECTED TO GET EVEN STRONGER AS THE YEAR PROGRESSES. THE YEN'S BEGINNING TO TURN. THE POSITIONING IS MUCH MORE NEUTRAL. IT IS NO LONGER A GUARANTEED SHORT BIT. THERE WAS A TIME WHERE PEOPLE BLINDLY SHORTED THE YEN AGAINST ALMOST ANYTHING, THAT'S NOT THE CASE, IT IS TURNING AGAINST THE EURO, THE AUSSIE AND THE SWISS FRANC AND CANADIAN DOLLAR. ALL ARE VERY CLEAR. EVEN THE U.S.
他们希望保持改善的势头。他们预计随着一年进展，形势会变得更加强劲。日元开始扭转局面。持仓定位更加中性。这不再是一个保证做空的部位。曾经有一段时间，人们盲目地对日元几乎任何货币对做空，现在情况并非如此，日元正在对欧元、澳元、瑞郎和加元走强。所有这些都非常明显。即使是美
DOLLAR IS BEGINNING TO SEE CRACKS. VERY SIGNIFICANT. IT'S A HUGE CURRENCY WITHIN THE TRADING WORLD. ONLY THE EURO IS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT. THAT'S MORE NEUTRAL AT THE MOMENT. WITH THE CHINESE AND JAPANESE CURRENCY BEGINNING TO TURN, THAT TELLS YOU THE CURRENCY WORLD IS SHIFTING. IT IS NO LONGER THE CASE AT THE U.S. DOLLAR IS A CLEAR CASE OF GOING UP -- IT'S BEGINNING TO CRACK. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR IT WILL GO DOWN. HAIDI: MARK CRANFIELD THERE.
元也开始出现裂痕。非常显著。它是交易世界中一个巨大的货币。只有欧元比它更重要。目前欧元更加中性。随着中国和日元开始扭转，这表明货币世界正在发生变化。美元不再是明确上涨的情况——它开始出现裂痕。问题是它会下跌多少。海德：马克·克兰菲尔德在此。
SHERY: TAKE A LOOK AT THE AFTER HOURS TRADING ON MICRON. WE ARE NOT SEEING A LOT OF BOOM AND THE STOCK IS UNDER PRESSURE AT THE MOMENT, WE HAVE SEEN THOSE BIG BEATS ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE RESULTS. THE STOCK UP MORE THAN 270% ALREADY THIS YEAR. BEST-PERFORMING IN THE PHILADELPHIA CONDUCTOR INDEX. FOR MORE LET'S BRING IN ANAKYST -- ANALYST JAKE SILVERMAN. THE PROFIT GUIDANCE WAS UP. FOURTH QUARTER SALES WENT UP, PROFIT, ESTIMATES.
谢丽：看看美光盘后交易的情况。我们没有看到太多的繁荣，股票目前承受压力，我们在业绩中看到了全面的重大超预期表现。今年股价已经上涨超过270%。在费城半导体指数中表现最佳。让我们请分析师杰克·西尔弗曼带来更多分析。利润指引上调。第四季度销售额上升，利润、预期。
IS THIS THE CELL THE NEW SITUATION WE TURN TO SEE IN THESE VERY HIGH-STAKES, HIGH EXPECTATIONS STOCKS? JAKE: I THINK IT IS TOUGH TO GET INVESTORS EXCITED ABOUT MODEST BEATS AND RAISES. TYPICALLY WHAT'S BEEN -- WHAT INVESTORS HAVE LOOKED FOR IN THE PAST IS FOR MEMORY COMPANIES LIKE MICRON AND PEERS TO BE FAST, HIGH MAGNITUDE BEATS AND RACES AS PRICING CONTINUES TO GROW DURING UP CYCLES, AND SUPPLY AND DEMAND CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN.
这是我们要在这些高风险、高期望的股票中看到的新局面吗？杰克：我认为很难让投资者对适度的超预期和上调感到兴奋。通常投资者过去寻找的是像美光和同行这样的存储公司能够迅速实现大幅度的超预期和提价，随着定价在上行周期中持续增长，供需继续收紧。
I THINK WHAT'S GOING ON NOW IS THESE LONG-TERM AGREEMENTS THAT ARE TAKE OR PAY. I THINK IT LEAVES LESS ROOM FOR CONTINUED PRICING GROWTH. I ALSO THINK IT IS MUCH HEALTHIER FOR THE INDUSTRY NOT ONLY FOR MICRON BUT FOR CUSTOMERS AS WELL BECAUSE AS YOU START TO LOOK AT GROSS MARGINS IN HIGH 80'S, MID TO HIGH 80'S, IT STARTS TO BECOME A SITUATION WHERE MEMORY BECOMES A DISPROPORTIONATE LEVEL OF THE MATERIALS COST FOR NOT ONLY A.I.
我认为现在发生的是这些长期协议，即照单全收或付款条款。我认为这减少了持续价格上涨的空间。我也认为这对行业更健康，不仅对美光，对客户也是如此，因为当你开始看到毛利率达到80%多、80%中高位时，这就开始成为一种局面，即存储材料成本在不仅仅是人工智能
SERVERS FOR SMARTPHONES, PC'S, ANY ELECTRONIC PRODUCT. YOU NAME IT. SHERY: THE MEMORY CYCLE, SORT OF BECOMING LESS CYCLICAL I GUESS, IN THAT REGARD, WHAT ARE WE SEEING IN TERMS OF THE RESULTS ECHO TELL US ABOUT THE DURABILITY OF THIS A.I. MEMORY DEMAND AT THIS POINT?
服务器、智能手机、个人电脑、任何电子产品中占据了不成比例的水平。你随便说一种。谢丽：存储周期在这方面似乎变得不那么周期性了，就结果而言，我们看到了什么，这些结果告诉我们目前人工智能存储需求的持久性如何？
JAKE: CONTINUING ON THE COMMENT I MADE BEFORE, THEY HAVE THESE LONG-TERM AGREEMENTS NOW WITH 26 CUSTOMERS UP FROM 16 LAST QUARTER THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 203 0, 2031 IN SOME CASES. AUTO CUSTOMERS ARE A THREE YEAR AVERAGE. A SMALLER PERCENTAGE OF OVERALL REVENUE. THAT GIVES MICRON A LOT OF VISIBILITY IN TERMS OF THE VOLUME AND LEVEL OF REVENUE THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE OVER THE PERIOD OF THESE CONTRACTS. BASICALLY WHAT THEY HAVE IS THESE DEPOSITS ARE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS LIKE DEPOSITS IN SOME CASES THAT TOTAL UP TO $30 BILLION THIS PAST QUARTER SO INVESTORS ARE NOT REALLY FOCUSED ON THE DOWN CYCLE AS MUCH BUT IT POTENTIALLY SOFTENS THE BLOW IF WE START TO SEE A DECLINE IN A.I.
JAKE：继续我之前提到的评论，他们现在与26家客户签订了长期协议，而上个季度这一数字为16家，部分协议的期限延长至2030年、甚至2031年。汽车客户的平均合同期为三年。这部分收入占整体收入的较小比例。这使美光在合同期内可能产生的产量和收入水平方面拥有很高的可见度。基本上，这些存款是金融工具，在某些情况下类似于存款，上个季度总额高达300亿美元。因此，投资者并没有那么关注下行周期，但如果我们开始看到人工智能领域的衰退，这在潜在程度上会减轻冲击。
CAPEX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS. IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE IF IT IS CYCLICAL ANYMORE. I DO THINK IF YOU LOOK AT HIGH BEEN WITH MEMORY, HPM, I DON'T THINK THOSE PRODUCTS ARE NECESSARILY WHAT YOU WOULD CONSIDER A STANDARD COMMODITY LIKE DRAM. I DON'T KNOW THAT WE WILL SEE THE SAME LEVEL OF PRICE DECLINES OR BOOM AND BUST TYPE CYCLES WE HAVE SEEN WITH THIS TYPE OF
未来几年的资本支出。很难再确定这是否具有周期性。我认为如果你看看HBM（高带宽内存）和HPM，我不认为这些产品一定是你会视为像DRAM那样的标准大宗商品的产品。我不认为我们会看到与这类[产品]相同程度的价格下跌或繁荣与萧条式的周期。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力