分析师：美光财报超预期，AI需求支撑存储周期延续
The Key Takeaways From Micron's Better-Than-Expected Forecast
Hendi Susanto is research analyst and portfolio manager over at Gabelli, and he actually holds Micron in one of his main ETFs. Hendi, give me your reaction here, your knee jerk reaction to the earnings that we just got out of Micron. What do you make of it? Thank you for having me, Romaine. I think this is another strong bit and race for Micron. The debate about Micron will continue, like its cyclicality. And I do think that Micron present a big divergence between the bears and bulls.
Hendi Susanto 是 Gabelli 的研究分析师兼投资组合经理，他实际上在其主要 ETF 之一中持有美光（Micron）的股票。Hendi，请谈谈你的反应，你对美光刚刚发布的财报的第一反应是什么？你怎么看？感谢邀请，Romaine。我认为这是美光的又一个强劲表现和赛道。关于美光的争论将继续存在，例如其周期性。我确实认为美光在空头和多头之间呈现出巨大的分歧。
The bears are demanding perfections while the bulls are contemplating, like, multiple upside scenarios. Give me a sense when we talk about the upside scenarios, and I know we have to wait for the conference call to get a more longer term outlook out of this company. But is this a situation that we're not gonna get 300 plus percent revenue growth forever? We're not gonna get a thousand plus EPS growth forever. Can this company glide down to a safe and, I guess, normalized growth rate that's gonna please investors and not spook them?
空头要求完美，而多头则在考虑多种上行情景。当我们谈论上行情景时，给我一些感觉，我知道我们必须等待电话会议才能从该公司获得更长期的前景展望。但这种情况是我们永远无法获得超过 300% 的收入增长吗？我们永远无法获得超过一千倍的每股收益（EPS）增长吗？这家公司能否逐渐过渡到一个安全且可以称之为正常化的增长率，从而取悦投资者而不让他们感到恐慌？
Yes. So, Romaine, investor are putting a high burden on Micron to double its revenue and double its earning in the next fiscal year. And when it comes to the questions whether this time is different or this time is similar to the to the boom and bust of memory cycle, I would argue that there are different elements this time. We are seeing hyperscalers securing, like, multiyear supply of memories ahead with some pricing window, and I think that is something that that can provide, like, sustainability and durability of this memory cycle.
是的。所以，Romaine，投资者对美光寄予厚望，希望其在下一个财年实现收入和盈利翻倍。当涉及到这个问题是不同还是与内存周期的繁荣和萧条相似时，我认为这次有不同的元素。我们看到超大规模客户提前锁定多年期的内存供应，并有一定的定价窗口，我认为这可以为本次内存周期提供可持续性和持久性。
At this point, I have not heard any negative data points pointing that the memory cycle is going to reverse toward a decline anytime soon for the foreseeable future. And then pricing also remains strong, and then Micron attempts to provide durability by signing multiyear supply agreement that can be as long as three to five years, and then that amount of multiyear supply agreement will grow. So I do think that the supply shortage outlook for 2027, it remains solid.
到目前为止，我没有听到任何负面数据点表明内存周期在可预见的未来即将转向下滑。此外，价格依然强劲，美光试图通过签署长达三到五年的多年期供应协议来提供持久性，这种多年期供应协议的规模将会增长。因此，我确实认为 2027 年的供应短缺前景依然稳固。
Well, give me a sense here too that when we start to talk about the the big fear here, which is always that, okay, if we do start to see a scale back in some of the spending, not by the hyperscalers, but by open AI and anthropic, are there sort of second and third tier players out there that could actually step in to keep the infrastructure demand going? Because one of the arguments has been made that while this build out is about AI, that there are other uses for all of this infrastructure beyond just AI.
好的，我也想了解一下这里的一个主要担忧：如果我们开始看到一些支出缩减——不是由超大规模云厂商（hyperscalers），而是由 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等公司缩减——那么是否有二线和三线玩家能够介入以维持基础设施需求？因为有一种观点认为，虽然当前的建设围绕 AI 展开，但所有这些基础设施除了用于 AI 之外还有其他用途。
Yes. So I do think, Micron present, like, strong growth stories. When we look at AI, they are, like, AI training, AI in AI inference, and then agentic AI. We are hearing, like, agentic AI applications popping up, like, week in and week out now, and then it fills up the news. And then second, we also have, like, traditional server market that is seeing agentic AI driving more workload and then therefore, driving a higher demand.
是的。我认为美光（Micron）目前呈现出强劲的增长故事。当我们审视 AI 时，它包括 AI 训练、AI 推理以及代理式 AI（agentic AI）。我们现在几乎每周都能听到代理式 AI 应用涌现的消息，并占据新闻头条。其次，我们还有传统服务器市场，该市场正受到代理式 AI 推动更多工作负载的影响，从而带动更高的需求。
And then we also have, like, a surfer multiyear surface refresh cycle that will continue for the next two two or three years. Yeah. And on top of that, I do think that memory, like, the increase of electronic contents across, like, consumer electronics, physical AI will continue to be sustaining growth drivers for the memory demand. When we start to talk about sort of what comes next and, I mean, what do you wanna hear from the CEO and the CFO on this call tonight that we, I guess, I guess, double down on your convictions about the company, about the stock?
此外，我们还拥有一个将持续两到三年的服务器多年度更新周期。是的。在此基础上，我认为内存中电子内容的增加，以及在消费电子和物理 AI 方面的增长，将继续成为支撑内存需求的驱动力。当我们开始讨论接下来会发生什么时，我的意思是，在今晚的财报电话会议上，你希望从 CEO 和 CFO 那里听到什么？我想，他们是否会加倍强调对公司和股票的信心？
Yes. I think the key focus is the durability and then early visibility into growth and profitability, what gross margin looks like. I know that the bears may not be pleased if gross margin dip towards, like, low 80%, but low 80% compared to the historical peak is a very commanding position for Micron. I would like also to note that Micron operates in the oligopoly market with limited number of players, and they are the leaders in both DRAM and then fast memory.
是的。我认为关键焦点在于增长的持久性以及早期的可见性，还有毛利率的表现。我知道如果毛利率下滑至 80% 出头的低位，空头可能不会满意，但与历史峰值相比，80% 出头的毛利率对于美光来说是一个非常强势的地位。我还想指出，美光运营在一个寡头垄断市场中，参与者数量有限，并且美光是 DRAM 和高速内存领域的领导者。
Yeah. And then I think referring back to what if a certain hyperscalers, let's say, like, scaled down, I do think there are many, like, tier two, tier three across, like, hype neo clouds, enterprise AI, and then software and AI that would be happy to pick up the slack and then, like, buy the extra memory supplies.
是的。回到刚才的问题，如果某些超大规模云厂商（hyperscalers）缩减规模，比如像 Hypex Neo Clouds、企业级 AI 以及软件和 AI 领域中的许多二线和三线厂商，它们会很乐意填补空缺并购买额外的内存供应。
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