美国8月消费支出创年内最大涨幅
US Consumer Spending Jumps by Most in a Year
宏观关键数据落地，直接修正市场对美联储政策路径的定价预期，投资者需关注后续CPI及非农数据对利率决策的影响。
THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BUSINESS WEEK DAILY." REPORTING FROM THE MAGAZINE THAT HELPS GLOBAL LEADERS STAY AHEAD WITH INSIGHT ON THE PEOPLE, COMPANIES, AND TRENDS SHAPING TODAY’S COMPLEX ECONOMY. PLUS GLOBAL BUSINESS, FINANCE, AND TECH NEWS AS IT HAPPENS. "BLOOMBERG BUSINESS WEEK DAILY" WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC. LIVE ON BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION, AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS.
这里是“彭博商业周刊日报”。来自那本帮助全球领导者通过洞察塑造当今复杂经济的人物、公司和趋势，从而保持领先优势的杂志的报道。以及实时发生的全球商业、金融和科技新闻。“彭博商业周刊日报”由卡罗尔·马萨尔和蒂姆·斯滕诺维克主持。在彭博广播、电视和彭博原创内容上直播。
GOOD AFTERNOON AND WELCOME TO "BLOOMBERG BUSINESS WEEK DAILY." I’M CHRISTINA RUFFINI, NOT CAROL MASSAR. DAVID: THEY’RE MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE WEST COAST, SCREEN TIME KICKS OFF TONIGHT, TWO-DAY EVENT, PUT ON BY BLOOMBERG. LUCAS SHAW HEADS UP OUR ENTERTAINMENT COVERAGE. AN AMAZING EVENT. WE’RE GOING TO TALK WITH LISA MATEO ABOUT THIS LATER. CHRISTINA: I DO FEEL LIKE WE ARE HERE TO CONTINUE THE FUN THINGS. HOWEVER, WE’LL BE FUN.
下午好，欢迎收看“彭博商业周刊日报”。我是克里斯蒂娜·鲁菲尼，不是卡罗尔·马萨尔。大卫：他们正前往西海岸，屏幕时间今晚拉开帷幕，这是由彭博主办的为期两天的活动。卢卡斯·肖负责我们的娱乐报道。这是一场精彩的活动。我们稍后将与丽莎·马特奥讨论此事。克里斯蒂娜：我觉得我们是来延续这些有趣的事情的。不过，我们会很有趣。
WE’RE GOING TO CARRY YOU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. I THINK WE’RE GOING TO START, HERE’S THIS HOUR. IT’S WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30. WE’RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE MARKETS, HOW THEY REACTED TO THE LATEST INFLATION DATA. WE’VE GOT THE FED LOOKING AT THE P.C.E. NUMBERS. WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS GOING FORWARD, AND WHAT ARE POLICY MAKERS GOING TO DO ABOUT IT? DAVID: MIKE MCKEE IS GOING TO JOIN US FOR HIS PERSPECTIVE. WE ALSO GOT THIS REPORT FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE ABOUT THE RENOVATION, THE CONTROVERSIAL RENOVATION OF THE FED BUILDING.
我们将为您全程播报下午的情况。我想我们要从这里开始这一小时。今天是9月30日星期三。我们将讨论市场如何对最新的通胀数据做出反应。美联储正在关注PCE（个人消费支出物价指数）数据。未来的预期是什么，政策制定者将对此采取什么行动？大卫：迈克·麦基将加入我们要分享他的观点。我们还收到了美联储关于翻新工程的报告，即备受争议的美联储大楼翻新工程。
WE’LL ASK MIKE ABOUT THAT. AND THE CHIEF ECONOMIST WILL TALK ABOUT INFLATION DATA, THE JOBS DATA. WE’RE LOOKING FORWARD TO THAT ON FRIDAY AS WELL. CHRISTINA: WE’LL KEEP YOU POSTED ON ALL THE STOCKS MAKING MOVES THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT FIRST, WE’RE GOING TO GO TO CHARLIE PELLETT. CHARLIE, WHAT YOU GOT? CHARLIE: A VERY MIXED MARKET. NICE SEEING BOTH OF YOU, NOT ON A WEEKEND. THE DOW LOWER, S&P, NASDAQ BOTH ADVANCING.
我们将就此询问迈克。首席经济学家将谈论通胀数据和就业数据。我们也期待周五的这部分内容。克里斯蒂娜：我们将随时向您通报本周三下午所有股价波动的股票。但首先，我们将连线查理·佩莱特。查理，你有什么消息？查理：市场表现非常混杂。很高兴在非周末见到你们两位。道琼斯指数下跌，标普500和纳斯达克指数均上涨。
NASDAQ 100 INDEX UP BY .8%. S&P IS BASELINE, UP 32, UP BY JUST ABOUT .4%. LOTS OF ECONOMIC DATA TODAY. STOCKS RISING AS THE INFLATION SURPRISE THIS MORNING CURVES BETS ON A FED RATE HIKE IN OCTOBER. DOW INDUSTRIALS, HOWEVER, DO REMAIN LOWER, DOWN BY .2%. S&P UP BY .4%. ALL OF THIS WITH THE V.I.X. BELOW 16, A TWO-YEAR, 4.88%. WE’VE GOT THE FIVE-YEAR, 5.09%. THE 10-YEAR, 5.29%. AND 30-YEAR BONDS, YIELD REMAINS AT THE HIGHEST SINCE 2002.
纳斯达克100指数上涨0.8%。标普500指数持平，上涨32点，涨幅约为0.4%。今天有大量经济数据公布。随着今早通胀数据出乎意料，市场对美联储10月加息的预期发生转变，股市随之上涨。然而，道琼斯工业平均指数仍然下跌，跌幅为0.2%。标普500指数上涨0.4%。VIX指数低于16，两年期国债收益率为4.88%。五年期国债收益率为5.09%。十年期国债收益率为5.29%。三十年期国债收益率保持在自2002年以来的最高水平。
CERTAINLY GETS YOUR ATTENTION WITH THE 30-YEAR AT 5.64%. GOLD IS DOWN $32 AN OUNCE. SPOT GOLD, $49.49, DOWN BY .8%. CRUDE ON THE PLUS SIDE. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE ABOVE $90 AT $90.77 A BARREL. BARREL OF BRENT, $103.62, UP BY 1%. SPEAKING OF OIL, TRADERS AND ANALYSTS SAY OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ARE CLOSING IN ON PREWAR LEVELS, ADDING MUCH NEEDED SUPPLY TO A GLOBAL MARKET WHERE CRUDE CONTINUES TO SWING AROUND $1100 A BARREL.
30年期国债收益率达5.64%，无疑吸引了你的目光。黄金下跌32美元/盎司。现货黄金报49.49美元，下跌0.8%。原油走高。西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）每桶高于90美元，报90.77美元。布伦特原油每桶103.62美元，上涨1%。说到石油，交易员和分析师表示，通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量正逼近战前水平，为全球市场增添了急需的供应，而全球市场上原油价格继续在每桶1100美元附近波动。（注：原文“$1100 A BARREL”疑为笔误，通常指约110美元，此处按字面直译）
AMONG THE OIL MAJORS, THEY’RE ALL HIGHER TODAY. EXXONMOBIL UP 1.8%. CHEVRON UP 1.2%. CONOCO PHILLIPS UP 1.6%. A STORY WE’LL HAVE MORE ON COMING UP RIGHT HERE ON "BLOOMBERG BUSINESS WEEK DAILY," THE FED’S INTERNAL WATCH DOG SAID IT FOUND NO EVIDENCE OF CRIMINAL WRONGDOING IN THE CENTRAL BANK’S RENOVATION OF ITS WASHINGTON HEADQUARTERS, A $2.4 BILLION PROJECT. DAVID GURA, CHRISTINA RUFFINI, THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH.
在主要石油公司中，它们今天全线走高。埃克森美孚上涨1.8%。雪佛龙上涨1.2%。康菲菲利普斯上涨1.6%。稍后我们将在《彭博商业周刊日报》上对此进行更多报道。美联储的内部监督机构表示，未发现中央银行翻新其华盛顿总部项目存在刑事不当行为，该项目耗资24亿美元。大卫·古拉、克里斯蒂娜·鲁菲尼，这是一则彭博商业快讯。
DAVID: CHARLIE, THANK YOU VERY MUCH. OIL IS SOMETHING I’VE BEEN FOCUSING ON TODAY. YOU HAVE BEEN AS WELL. WE REPORT A LOT ON WHAT IS GETTING IN AND OUT OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IT DOES SEEM LIKE, ACCORDING TO REPORTS THAT WE’VE SEEN, LEVELS ARE BACK CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS BEFORE THE WAR. CHRISTINA: MAYBE RUNNING EVEN HOTTER THAN THEY WERE BEFORE THE WAR, TRYING TO GET SOME OF THAT PRODUCT OUT TO MARKET. AND IT DOES SEEM LIKE, WE’RE GETTING REPORTS FROM INDUSTRY ANALYSTS, SAYING THEM DON’T THINK IT CAUSED LONG-TERM DAMAGE TO THE SYSTEMS, TO THE PRODUCTION THERE.
大卫：查理，非常感谢你。石油是我今天关注的重点。你也一直在关注。我们报道了大量进出霍尔木兹海峡的情况。根据我们所看到的报道，情况似乎确实如此，水平已回到接近战前的状态。克里斯蒂娜：也许甚至比战前还要紧张，正试图将部分产品推向市场。而且据行业分析师的报告来看，他们认为这并未对系统或当地的生产造成长期损害。
BUT TO ME, THE ISSUE IS ALWAYS NOT JUST PRODUCTION, IT’S THE RISK FACTOR AND ALL THE OTHER PRICING. DAVID: WE’LL GET INTO THAT LATER IN THE SHOW. CHRISTINA: BUT FIRST, WE’RE GOING TO MIKE MCKEE, OUR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY CORRESPONDENT HERE AT BLOOMBERG TV, BECAUSE AMID ALL THE ECONOMIC DATA THIS WEEK, OF COURSE WE’VE GOT P.C.E., C.P.I., FED. OK, SO MANY ACRONYMS. LET’S START WITH THE CORE P.C.E. DATA. CAN YOU START AT THE 30,000 FEET, CHRISTINA RUFFINI WILL UNDERSTAND THIS LEVEL, AND THEN YOU CAN DIG INTO WHAT STOOD OUT TO YOU.
但在我看来，问题不仅仅在于产量，还在于风险因素以及所有其他定价。大卫：我们将在节目稍后深入探讨这一点。克里斯蒂娜：但首先，我们要请迈克·麦基，这位彭博电视的国际经济与政策记者，因为本周所有的经济数据中，当然我们有PCE、CPI、美联储等。好吧，这么多缩写。让我们从核心PCE数据开始。你能先提供一个宏观视角吗？克里斯蒂娜·鲁菲尼会理解这个层面，然后你可以深入谈谈让你印象深刻的地方。
MIKE: THANK YOU. IT’S GREAT TO BE HERE WITH YOU ON SATURDAY MORNING. [LAUGHTER] GOOD TO SEE BOTH OF YOU IN THE CHAIR. THIS WAS KIND OF AN INTERESTING REPORT, BECAUSE THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CHANGED SOME OF THE METHODOLOGY IT USES IN MEASURING SOME OF THE COMPONENTS OF THE PCE REPORT. WE KNEW IT WOULD BE REVISED LOWER. SO THE QUESTION IS, AND ECONOMISTS ARE FIGHTING ABOUT THIS SINCE THE REPORT CAME OUT, THE QUESTION IS, WHAT DID IT TELL US ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF INFLATION?
迈克：谢谢。很高兴能在周六早上与你一起在这里。[笑声] 很高兴看到你们俩坐在主播台后。这份报告有点意思，因为经济分析局修改了其在衡量PCE报告某些组成部分时使用的部分方法论。我们知道它会被向下修订。所以问题是，自报告发布以来经济学家们正在争论的问题就是，它告诉了我们关于通胀方向的什么信息？
BASICALLY, TO MY MIND, IT GIVES UMS THE IDEA THAT INFLATION HASN’T CHANGED A WHOLE LOT. WHAT IT DID WAS LOWER THE LEVELS OF THE INFLATION, OF PCE AND CORE SINCE 2021 ON A YEAR OVER YEAR BASIS. BUT WHAT IT SHOWED IS THAT THERE WAS REALLY NO CHANGE IN AUGUST. WE SAW THE CORE PCE REVISED DOWN FROM JULY TO 3.4% FROM 3.7%. BUT THEN IT WAS STILL 3.4% IN AUGUST. SO THE FED HAWKS COULD SAY WE’RE NOT REALLY MAKING PROGRESS. SOME PEOPLE SAY ON A THREE-MONTH BASIS, WE’RE AT 2%.
基本上，在我看来，它给人的印象是通胀并没有发生太大变化。它所做的是自2021年以来在同比基础上降低了PCE和核心PCE的通胀水平。但它显示的是8月份实际上没有任何变化。我们看到核心PCE从7月的3.7%下修至3.4%。但随后8月份仍为3.4%。所以美联储鹰派可以说我们并没有取得真正的进展。有些人说按三个月的基础来看，我们处于2%的水平。
BUT YOU CAN ALSO MAKE THE ARGUMENT THAT WITHIN THIS REPORT, THERE WERE SIGNS THAT OFFICES INFLATION IS STILL RISING, AND THEN, OF COURSE, THIS MORNING WE GOT NEWS ABOUT THE MORTGAGE RATES MOVING UP QUITE A BIT. SO THAT’S GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOUSING. THERE’S A LOT IN THE NUMBERS OUT TODAY THAT DON’T REALLY TAKE US ANYWHERE DIFFERENT, I DON’T THINK AT THIS POINT. DAVID: THE THE MORTGAGE RATE NUMBER DEPRESSING MY CO-HOST AS WELL.
但你也可以提出论点，认为在这份报告中，有迹象表明办公室租金通胀仍在上升，然后，当然，今天早上我们收到了关于抵押贷款利率大幅上升的消息。所以这将对住房产生影响。今天公布的大量数据并没有真正把我们带向不同的方向，我认为目前是这样。大卫：抵押贷款利率的数据也让我的联合主持人感到沮丧。
CHRISTINA: I WAS GOING TO SAY, MIKE HAS BEEN ENOUGH WEEKEND TO KNOW I HATE TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THAT I’M NEVER GOING TO OWN A HOUSE, AND I’M GOING TO LET IT GO. DAVID: ESPECIALLY IN THE BROADER MARKET. I LOOK AT THE ODDS OF A CUT, RATHER, A HIKE HAPPENING THIS OCTOBER. WE CAN SEE IT’S 40% ROUGHLY SPEAKING. HOW DOES THIS CHANGE THE CAPITAL FOR FED POLICY MAKERS? WE’VE HAD AN AMPLE SERVING OF FED SPEAK HERE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND THAT CONTINUES OVER THE REST OF THE WEEK.
克里斯蒂娜：我正要这么说，迈克已经度过了一个漫长的周末，他知道我讨厌谈论我永远买不起房子的事实，我就随它去吧。大卫：尤其是在更广泛的市场中。我看的是今年10月发生加息而非降息的可能性。我们可以看到大致为40%。这对美联储政策制定者的资本有何影响？过去几天我们已经听到了大量美联储官员的讲话，而且这种状况在本周余下时间将继续。
MIKE: THIS IS KIND OF AN UNUSUAL SITUATION, BECAUSE THE NEXT FED MEETING IS OCTOBER 28, SO IT’S LIKE FIVE DAYS BEFORE THE MIDTERM ELECTION. SO ORDINARILY YOU WOULD THINK THE FED WOULD NOT WANT TO GET INVOLVED IN THAT OR MIXED UP IN THAT BY RAISING RATES. BUT IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE INFLATION NUMBERS WE GET BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. WE’LL GET C.P.I., P.P.I., SO I DON’T THINK I WOULD TRUST THE FED FUNDS FUTURES AT THIS POINT.
迈克：这是一种相当不寻常的情况，因为下一次美联储会议是在10月28日，也就是中期选举前五天。所以通常你会认为美联储不希望通过提高利率来卷入或混淆其中。但这完全取决于从现在到那时我们获得的通胀数据。我们将获得CPI、PPI，所以我认为我不太信任此时的联邦基金期货。
THEY CHANGE ALL THE TIME WITH THE LATEST DATA. AND THAT COULD EASILY CHANGE IF WE GET A HOT INFLATION REPORT. IF NOT, THEY MAY HOLD OFF. BUT YOU HEARD JOHN WILLIAMS, THE VICE CHAIR OF THE OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, SAY YESTERDAY HE THOUGHT ANOTHER RISE WOULD BE JUSTIFIED BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR, SO THEY COULD DO THAT IN DECEMBER. TODAY’S NUMBERS DIDN’T DISSUADE ANYBODY. YOU LOOK AT THE OTHER NUMBERS WE GOT TODAY, CONSUMER SPENDING WAS AT THE HIGHEST IN YEARS IN AUGUST, UP .9%.
它们随着最新数据不断变化。如果我们收到一份强劲的通胀报告，情况很容易发生变化。如果不是，他们可能会暂缓行动。但你昨天听到了公开市场委员会副主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，他认为年底前再次加息是合理的，所以他们可以在12月这样做。今天的数据并没有打消任何人的念头。你看我们今天得到的其他数据，8月份的消费者支出达到了多年来的最高水平，增长了0.9%。
WE GOT A 90,000 JOB FIGURE FOR PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS FROM ADP. WE’LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS ON FRIDAY WITH THE BLS NUMBERS. BUT IT DOES SEEM THAT THE ECONOMY IS GOING STRONG, IF NOT EXPANDING. THAT IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE INFLATION. DAVID: I WANT TO BRING IN THE CHIEF ECONOMIST THERE. GREAT TO SPEAK WITH YOU AS ALWAYS. I WANT YOU TO PICK UP ON WHAT MIKE WAS TALKING ABOUT, AND THAT IS THE EVIDENT RESILIENCE, CONTINUED RESILIENCE OF THE CONSUMER IN THE UNITED STATES.
我们获得了来自 ADP 的私营部门就业人数为 90,000 的数据。我们将看看周五 BLS（美国劳工统计局）数据的情况。但经济似乎确实在强劲增长，甚至处于扩张之中。这总是意味着通胀的可能性。大卫：我想请出那里的首席经济学家。很高兴一如既往地与您交谈。我想请您接着迈克刚才的话题，那就是美国消费者显而易见的韧性以及持续的韧性。
I THINK IT’S FLUMMOXED A LOT OF PEOPLE, AND I WONDER IF YOU LOOK AT THE BROADER COMPLEMENT OF DATA, IF THERE’S ANYTHING THAT GIVES YOU CAUSE FOR CONCERN ABOUT THE CONSUMER’S ABILITY TO WITHSTAND THE UNCERTAINTY AND DIFFICULTIES THEY’VE BEEN FACING OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS.
我认为这让很多人感到困惑，我想知道如果您查看更广泛的数据集合，是否有任何迹象让您对消费者应对过去几个月所面临的不确定性和困难的能力感到担忧。
I THINK THE UNDERLYING STORYLINE, AS MIKE LAID OUT, IS THE RESILIENCE OF THE U.S. CONSUMER, DESPITE ELEVATED ENERGY PRICES. THE CONSUMER IS STILL OUT IN THE MARKETPLACE SPENDING ON GOODS AND SERVICES. NOW, DOING SO AT A SLIGHTER SLOWER PACE, AND WE ARE SEEING INC
正如迈克所述，我认为潜在的故事线是美国消费者的韧性，尽管能源价格高企。消费者仍在市场上购买商品和服务。虽然消费速度略有放缓，但我们正在看到进口
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力