纽约联储主席Williams暗示10月或加息一次

You have to be careful with this narrative that the US economy is really accelerating. So I'm still not overly convinced that this is a fed willing to do what it takes to get us back to that 2% target. This is the sixth straight year we're missing the 2% target. The risk is if we get a much bigger or more prolonged hiking cycle than is expected. Once we get picky, things will start to settle down again. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowitz and Annmarie Horden.

Live from New York City this morning. Good morning. Good morning for our audience worldwide. Bloomberg Surveillance starts right now coming into Wednesday closing at September. Equity bulls attempted to shake off 30 year bond yields at multi-decade highs. Looking to quarterly results from micron for another layer of earnings protection heading into a firehose of economic data and a fed primed to do even more PCA. Coming up next is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Everyone is going to be keenly focused on this. Especially we had fed speak yesterday, most notably the New York Fed President Williams coming out and saying basically, if the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent, my forecast one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year, late this year. So when we get PCs, there going to be a sense of urgency that maybe they would have to act in October.

Or is it going to be enough data that maybe they can sit, hold, pause and wait till the end of the year? Just sit, hold pause on this board right here. The monthly move on bond yields for September twos tens 30s yields higher for a seventh consecutive month over the month we've seen a 50 basis point move for the front end of the curve until a major move at the front end. And just in the last 24 hours a crack, a very small crack in the hawkish chorus.

New York Fed President John Williams just making the case for one more hike. Now, I know that's only a very, very small thing, but given the hawkish course we've had over the last few weeks, it's something. It is definitely something. And you saw that immediately in the futures pricing, in terms of how many individuals are now thinking that October is not going to be as bullish for a hike as possible. People are coming off those bets.

They're thinking maybe the fed will wait. They're going to move to December. I do like the reporter did ask him, you know, this has to do because there's a midterm election where five weeks where he said, absolutely not. It's not about politics. It's about the data. The data wasn't great yesterday. Consumer confidence wasn't fantastic. Job openings lower than expected, and 30 still couldn't rally a 38 year old at the highest level since 2002.

I do think that's notable. But against the backdrop of disappointing data, the 30 year bond still couldn't catch a bit. Increasingly, at the moment, at least looking at a 10th of. It's why so many people have got low conviction about stepping in into the long get, because there are so many reasons why you see these movements in the bond market. It is not just what's going on in the US economic data, it's the fact of the matter is we still have elevated oil prices.

At this moment, this administration is weighing its options on a diesel export ban. Individuals are starting to talk about the fact that potentially there's going to be fiscal problems, even though everyone kind of, you know, the deficit people kind of blow it off. But the fact of the matter is it's coming up more and more in conversations. And at the same time, there's just so much expansion when it comes to the air to trade, which is why equities so far and doing okay.

Futures this morning positive five out of ten were up on the session. Were higher on the month. Were higher on the quarter on the S&P 500. And no real sign that this is driving the equity trade. To your point I will talk about OpenAI a little bit later this hour, targeting a $30 billion funding round with a valuation of .4 trillion. I know the IPO has been delayed, but that's still a company that's got access to markets, incredible access to markets.

That is an insane amount of capital. I guess they're delaying the IPO. And I know that Sam Altman is talking about potentially they want all their ducks in a row. They are talking about the fact they want to make sure they are safe, and they obviously realize they're going to be treated very differently as a public company than when they were private. But my gosh, that is a tremendous amount of money, and we are seeing it across the entire AI space in the hyperscalers space.

Let's talk about the equity bond story. We'll catch up with Matt Miskin of John Hancock as the 30 upon your hits. A 24 year high will then catch up with Jennifer Huddleston of the Cato Institute. As tech leaders sign a morally binding I pledge, whatever that means to Terry Wiseman of Macquarie as Wall Street awaits a key read on inflation. We begin this hour with stocks and bonds stabilizing with yields sitting near multi-decade highs.

Matt Miskin of John Hancock writing we are in a high yield bond world and no one wants anything to do with it. Matt joins us now for more. Matt, welcome. Let's just start with the long and the long can. We got some disappointing data and still people didn't want to buy on the 30s. What gives. Yeah yesterday was tough on consumer confidence. Weaker jolts missed and yet yields higher. And oil prices were lower. Uh, so what we're seeing now more broadly is just a still a love for risk assets, equities, just doing amazing.

Uh, this year and every stock on the planet has loved every bond on the planet is disliked. So it's a sentiment issue. Uh, we got to get through the PC report today. You know, we're going to get some revisions, so that's good news. Um, but underlying it, I think we're waiting to see this before bond investors step back into this market. Let's just bring up the yield curve Matt. And look at 210 1030. So we could sit on the front end.

We've done this repeatedly over the last month or so. Twos have got a really comfortable spread right now between that where the two year rates and where the fed policy rate is. Just think about the risk reward here, how compounding things might be just to sit the front end of the curve. Where's the hawkish surprise going to come from given what's already priced. Yeah. So I mean we backed off the 2nd October hike as of this morning.

So that's nice. But December is still looking like a hike. And so you know right now I think we've gone from about three hikes priced into two. That's a nice little reduction uh for the markets. But I think it is a lot built in. And look right now you can getting about a 6% yield in the intermediate part of the curve. That's really attractive. We're at 20 year high yields and no one wants them. So there's a ton of value in the bond market right now.

The equities have the momentum going for them. They don't have valuation going for them. We're off probably peak growth. We're probably decelerating and growth here. And I think that's what the bond market is missing. I think that's a story for 2027. This looks a lot like 2018 to us where you had fiscal policy come in, help the economy juice it into kind of the back half. We've got a new fed chair trying to communicate.

Uh, it's it's mis it's missing some of the time. But nonetheless bond investors have better yield they've had in 20 years. Try to keep it simple. If you can lock in these yields I think that's going to be pretty attractive. I don't know came out the communication improved as a quarter. Grow a little bit older. Let's give him that. Matt, let's talk about the argument in the equity market at the moment. At the moment, I hear a lot of people come on this program talking about rotating within equities, going back to the hardware trade, the tech trade.

Are you making the argument to rotate out of equities to take advanta