比特币跌破8万美元：美债收益率与ETF资金流向分析

So then Bitcoin has pulled back into the low 80ks and this zone could decide how the rest of the year plays out. But the funny thing is that while the price has retraced from recent highs, almost everything else looks fine. Bitcoin took the failed Clarity Act vote on the chin, dropped a bit, and then quickly bounced back. And more recently, ETF buyers led by BlackRock have been showing up to buy hundreds of millions of dollars worth of BTC.

But that buying just isn't translating into sustained upside right now. And when good news stops moving price, it usually means something bigger is pushing back. So in this video, we'll look at what's weighing on Bitcoin right now, which levels actually matter, and what a clean break below 80K would really mean for this bull trend. My name is Guy and this is the Coin Bureau. So, how did Bitcoin find itself here? Well, at the end of Q2, Bitcoin closed at around 58K.

During this third quarter, it climbed as much as $28,000, outperforming both gold and equities along the way. And as it happens, Wall Street was a big factor driving that move. In the week ending the 25th of September, US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $2.39 billion, the strongest week of 2026. That included a record $999 million on the 21st of September, the biggest single day of the year. Black Rockck's IBIT took in more than half of that week's inflows by itself, and confidence was understandably running high.

But the 21st of September is also when things stalled. That day, Bitcoin hit an intraday high of 87K and was sent straight back down. By Monday the 28th, daily ETF inflows had shrunk to just $31 million. And as I make this video, Bitcoin is firmly in the low 80ks. Not quite the victory lap many people penciled in to close out Q3. Now, to be clear, $31 million is still money going in, not money coming out. Demand hasn't gone away.

The problem is what's happening around Bitcoin. So, what exactly is pushing back? Well, there are three things. But first, tracking crypto liquidity, macro data, and bond markets is more or less impossible for any one person to do alone. So, we've taken that job off your hands because right here on YouTube, you can join the Coin Bureau Club Light Plan. You'll get daily coverage of both crypto and traditional markets, plus our research team's read on where Capital is heading next.

And if you sign up today, your first month won't cost you a penny. So, just tap the join button below this video to get started. Okay, now back to Bitcoin. So, the first force weighing on BTC is coming from the corner of finance that's all over the news right now, the bond market. When governments have to pay more to borrow, investors get a very respectable return for taking almost no risk. And that safe return starts competing with everything else from tech stocks to Bitcoin.

Well, over the last month, that competition got a lot more serious. The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped from about 4.75% at the start of August to around 5.26% today. That's the highest level since 2007 on the world's supposedly safest asset. So why does Bitcoin feel this so sharply? Well, because it trades as a liquidity asset. Bitcoin doesn't pay a coupon or a dividend. So, its price depends on spare money looking for upside.

And when money gets more expensive, the marginal buyer, the one who actually pushes price to new highs, is the first to step back. Higher yields basically drain the pool Bitcoin swims in. Jonathan Randin, senior market analyst at Prime XPTt, said, quote, "A hike is one decision with a known size. a bond sell-off has no size and the market decides how far it goes. He added that yields above 5% quote compete directly with an asset that pays nothing.

Now, at the same time, why yields are rising actually matters more for Bitcoin than how high they go. 10X research founder Marcus Tan said, quote, "When yields rise on fiscal and term premium concerns, the picture flips, but yields are also reacting to a Federal Reserve that has changed direction. This month, the Fed voted 12 to0 to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. It was the first hike since July 2023, and markets had spent the summer pricing in cuts.

Not ideal." and 16 of the Fed's 18 officials now project at least one more hike by year end. Add Brent crude pushing well above $100 a barrel on tensions around the straight of muz and inflation has every excuse to stick around. Meanwhile, the dollar index has climbed to 101 while the S&P went pretty much nowhere in September. Now picture a big allocator watching all of that. When the rates path is uncertain and the dollar is strengthening, the instinct is to derisk.

And when you derisk, you sell what's liquid first. Bitcoin trades around the clock, which makes it one of the easiest things in any portfolio to sell at 3:00 a.m. on a Saturday. In a way, one of its greatest conveniences becomes a vulnerability. And this week is loaded with all manner of economic data releases that can move rate expectations. As I make this video, CME Fed Watch puts the odds of another hike at the October meeting at around 70%.

And that brings me to the third force, and this one's coming from inside of crypto. The ETF bid is there, but it's being soaked up by supply from elsewhere. The first source is existing holders taking profit. According to CryptoQuant, investors realized profits on 25,700 BTC on the 22nd of September, the largest single day of profit taking in 2026. And Glass Node data shows the heaviest cluster of long-term holder coins was bought between $84,000 and $85,000.

So, every rally into that zone runs into people who'd quite like their money back. The second source is leverage getting flushed. Bitcoin futures open interest fell by 49,000 BTC, around $4.1 billion between the 21st and 25th of September. On the 23rd alone, $230 million in leverage longs were liquidated in a single hour. But there's another issue with the inflows. A considerable share may be basis trades where funds buy the spot ETF and short futures to capture a roughly 6% annualized yield.

In other words, some of that money doesn't care where the price goes at all. Inflows only lift prices when nobody's selling into them. So, with those three forces pressing down, which levels actually matter? Well, the first is $80,000. Yes, it's a round number, and round numbers tend to carry more weight than they probably should, but it's also the level that Bitcoin broke out from this quarter, holding above it for nearly 2 weeks before the push towards 87K.

And it's roughly where a lot of recent buyers got in. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seafart estimates the average ETF holders cost basis at $81,700. Short-term holders are clustered in a similar $80,500 to $81,000 range. So lose 80K and a lot of the newest money in Bitcoin is underwater. The second level to watch, of course, is resistance at 87K, the high Bitcoin just failed at. Reclaiming it would likely take several daily closes above that level and a return of heavy ETF buying, all while chewing through that 84k to 85K holder cluster on the way.

Glory awaits if that plays out. But it's no small task. Conversely, if 80k is lost, the third level to consider is support at 75K. It's a real tested low with the 50-day moving average sitting just above it as reinforcement. So, those are the levels to watch. 87K above, 80K in the middle, 75K below. Now, what actually happens if 80K gives way cleanly? Well, I for one would be rather displeased, but it wouldn't necessarily be a crash to end this bull trend.

For one thing, CryptoQuant puts long-term holders averaged unrealized gains at around 72% versus 350% at the December 2024 peak. So, this is looking more like some mild distribution as opposed to cycle top dumping. But if BTC does drop into the 70ks, be prepared for some prolonged chop and most likely some boredom, i.e. some slow bleeding until the crypto tourists give up and go home. On the other hand, if 80k holds, it becomes the floor