特朗普与马斯克等AI领袖会面签署道德约束协议
Trump, Musk, AI CEOs Meet; OpenAI Eyes $1.4 Trillion Value
AI监管政策出现实质性进展，科技巨头集体响应，对行业合规成本与估值逻辑有直接影响，建议关注后续执行细节。
LIVE FROM BRUSSELS, THIS IS BLOOMBERG "DAYBREAK: EUROPE." I’M STEPHEN CARROLL WITH YOUR TOP STORIES. TREASURY YIELDS THEIR HEIST SINCE 2002. OIL’S BIGGEST FALL IN MORE THAN A WEEK. MIDDLE EAST CRUDE FLOWS ARE CLOSE TO PREWAR LEVELS. PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNS A DEAL WITH THE TITANS OF TECH TO ADDRESS CONCERNS ABOUT AI SAFETY DESCRIBING IT AS MORALLY BINDING. GOOD MORNING TO YOU. WE HAVE SHARES IN ASIA TRADING HIGHER. OF 11 SECTORS ARE MOVING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
来自布鲁塞尔的直播，这里是彭博社《早间新闻：欧洲》。我是斯蒂芬·卡罗尔，为您播报头条新闻。国债收益率创下2002年以来最高水平。油价出现一周多来最大跌幅。中东原油流动量已接近战前水平。特朗普总统与科技巨头签署了一项协议，以解决人们对人工智能安全的担忧，并将其描述为具有道德约束力。早上好。亚洲股市上涨。11个板块中有多个板块今晨走高。
EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES POINTING TO A STRONGER OPEN AFTER FENG SLIGHTLY HIGHER YESTERDAY. S&P AND WALL STREET ALSO A LITTLE HIGHER THIS MORNING AFTER TWO DAYS OF LOSSES ON THE S&P 500. IF WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE OTHER ASSETS, OIL PRICES ARE IN FOCUS. A LITTLE HIGHER THIS MORNING. BRENT OVER $103 A BARREL. ALL EYES ON THE MIDDLE EAST ENERGY FLOWS. THE BLOOMBERG DOLLAR INDEX HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING. UP 1.9%. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS.
欧洲股指期货指向强劲开盘，此前富时指数昨日小幅走高。标准普尔500指数连续两天下跌后，标普指数和华尔街今晨也小幅走高。如果我们看看其他资产，油价成为焦点。今晨小幅走高。布伦特原油每桶超过103美元。所有人的目光都集中在中东能源流动上。彭博美元指数持续走强，上涨1.9%。10年期国债收益率。
HOLDING NEAR A 19-YEAR HIGH. WE HAVE MORE INFLATION DATA COMING FROM EUROPE. 7:45. 8:45 IN FRANCE. GERMAN CPIAT 1:00 P.M. U.K. TIME. DATA KEY TO THE MOVES WE’RE SEEING, EXPECT I GUESSES AROUND THE FEDERAL RESERVE. THAT IS TO COME. THATCH SETS UP THE DAY AHEAD. THE -- THAT SETS UP THE DAY AHEAD. STEPHEN: TRADERS ARE WAITING ON A CRUCIAL U.S. INFLATION RATING AFTER YIELDS ON THE TREASURY HIT THE HIGHEST SINCE 2002. ADDING TO THE HAWK IRCHORUS, MICHAEL BARR IS AGAIN WARNING THAT MORE HIKES ARE LIKELY NEEDED.
维持在19年高位。我们将有更多来自欧洲的通胀数据出炉。7:45（北京时间）。法国8:45。德国CPI将于英国时间下午1:00公布。这些数据是我们要看到的市场走势的关键，预计美联储的预期也将随之而来。这将奠定当天的基调。斯蒂芬：交易员们在等待关键的美国通胀评级，此前国债收益率已触及2002年以来的最高水平。鹰派合唱声中再添新声，迈克尔·巴尔再次警告称，可能还需要进一步加息。
IN MY BASE CASE, FURTHER POLICY ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED TO ENSURE THAT INFLATION COMES DOWN TO TARGET IN A TIMELY FASHION. WE WANT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IN SUPPORT OF MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT AND PRICE STABILITY IS CRUCIAL TO THAT. STEPHEN: LET’S BRING IN DAVID SAVAGE FOR MORE. HOW SIGNIFICANT NOW WILL THIS PCEDATA BE TODAY?
在我的基准情形中，可能需要进一步的政策调整，以确保通胀及时降至目标水平。我们希望支持可持续增长，以支持充分就业，而物价稳定对此至关重要。斯蒂芬：让我们请大卫·萨维奇带来更多分析。今天的PCE数据将有多重要？
WELL, I THINK THERE IS A HIGH BAR FOR A DOWNSIDE SURPRISE THAT WOULD BE NEEDED AND LATER FROM PAYROLLS IN THE WEEK TO REVERSE THE FRIEND WE’RE SEEING IN HIGHER YIELDS. WE HAVE SEEN YIELDS STEADY OVERNIGHT. PART OF THAT IS BECAUSE WE HEARD FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK, PRESIDENT WILLIAMS WHO SAID NAY MIGHT NEED ONE MORE HIKE LATE THIS YEAR. 50-50 ODDS OF A SECOND HIKE COMING LATER THIS YEAR. IT IS FLUID IN TERMS OF WHAT EXPECTATIONS SHOULD LOOK LIKE IN THE NEAR TERM.
嗯，我认为需要极大的下行惊喜才能扭转我们看到的收益率上升势头，这需要来自本周晚些时候的就业人口数据。我们看到收益率在隔夜保持稳定。部分原因是我们听到了纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯的讲话，他表示今年年底可能还需要最后一次加息。今年晚些时候进行第二次加息的概率为五五开。短期内预期应该如何表现仍处于动态变化中。
AND WHAT HE WHAT WE GET LATER TONIGHT COULD DICTATE THAT PRICING. BUT THE PRESSURES ARE REALLY STRUCTURAL PARTICULARLY ON THE ENERGY SIDE. IT IS GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY REALLY SEEING A REVERSAL TO HAVE TREND AND HIGHER YIELDS.
而且我们今晚稍后得到的数据可能会决定定价。但压力实际上是结构性的，特别是在能源方面。要证明趋势逆转、收益率走高的合理性将非常困难。
YOU MENTIONED THE JOBS REPORT ON FRIDAY. THE JOB OPENINGS DATA YESTERDAY SHOWING A DROP IN VACANCIES. IN TERMS OF WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FRIDAY’S PAYROLLS REPORT IS THAT MORE LIKELY TO HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE ON FED DECISION MAKING?
你提到了周五的就业报告。昨天公布的职位空缺数据显示 vacancy（空缺）下降。就预期而言，周五的非农就业报告是否更有可能对美联储的决策产生更大影响？
YEAH, I THINK SO. I THINK IT WILL HAVE MORE BEARING THAN PCE REPORT WE SEE LATER TODAY. THE WEAL DRIVE IN HIGHER YIELDS IS BECAUSE NOT ONLY ARE WE SEEING RATE OF CHANGE ACCELERATION AND INFLATION, U.S. GROWTH STILL LOOKS REALLY RESILIENT. WE SAW THAT WITH THE P.M.I. DATA. WE’RE STARTING TO SEE A POINT WHERE REAL YIELDS HAVE TO MOVE HI, SUFFICIENT TO SOME LEVEL OF DEMAND DESTRUCTION TO GET THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND MARKETS MORE COMFORTABLE.
是的，我认为如此。我认为它的影响将大于我们今天稍后看到的 PCE（个人消费支出物价指数）报告。收益率上升的驱动力不仅是因为我们看到通胀的变化率在加速，而且美国的增长依然显得非常有韧性。我们从 PMI（采购经理人指数）数据中看到了这一点。我们开始看到实际收益率必须上升到一定水平，足以通过需求破坏来使美联储和市场感到更加舒适。
WE’RE IF WE STILL SEEING VERY STRONG OR DECENT EMPLOYMENT DATA THEN THAT’S GOING TO BE VERY DUEL DIFFICULT TO AGAIN JUSTIFY SLOWING THE PACE OF RATE HIKES. IN AUGUST, WE SAW AN UPSIDE SURPRISE. IT WILL BE THERE GO TO SEE WHAT GET HOMERS IN PAYROLL DATA ON FRIDAY. STEPHEN: WE’LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE WHAT’S IN THAT DATA. THANK YOU FOR JOIN US. BONDS IN ASIA -- STOCKS ARE GAINING. LET’S GET AN UPDATE FROM WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG.
如果我们仍然看到非常强劲或尚可的就业数据，那么这将使得再次证明放缓加息步伐的理由变得非常困难。在八月，我们看到了向上的意外惊喜。我们将看看周五公布的 payroll（薪资）数据情况。Stephen：我们将密切关注该数据的内容。感谢你加入我们。亚洲债券市场——股市上涨。让我们从香港的徐慧颖（Winnie Hsu）那里获取最新进展。
GOOD MORNING. WINNIE: GOOD MORNING. AS YOU MENTIONED WE ARE SEEING BONDS IN ASIA STABILIZING ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONT END YIELD FALLING ACROSS THE REGION. SPECIFICALLY FOR AUSTRALIA YOU ALSO HAVE THE INFLATION NUMBERS WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF INVESTORS -- THEIR BETS AROUND THE FURTHER RATE HIKES AND JAPAN WE HAD SOLID DEMAND AROUND THE AUCTION EARLIER TODAY. INVESTORS STILL HAVE THAT APPETITE GIVEN HOW HIGH YIELDS ARE IN JAPAN NOW.
早上好。Winnie：早上好。正如你所提到的，我们看到亚洲债券市场正在企稳，特别是前端收益率在整个地区普遍下降。具体到澳大利亚，你也看到了支持投资者关于进一步加息押注的通胀数据；而在日本，今天早些时候的拍卖周围出现了坚实的需求。鉴于日本目前的收益率水平很高，投资者仍然保持着这种胃口。
WHEN IT COMES TO THE YEN SEEING A BIT OF A STRENGTHENING TODAY AT ONE UPON THE THROUGH THAT 157 LEVEL AGAINST DOLLAR. INVESTORS ARE SAYING WE’RE SEEING UP FURTHER FUND FLOWS AT THE QUARTER END. HOW THIS STABILIZATION IN BONDS IS REALLY SUPPORTING ASIAN STOCKS. MSCI ASIA UP ALMOST 1%. WE’RE SEEING TECH SHARES LEADING GAINS TODAY GIVEN THE MOVE THE U.S. PEERS OVERNIGHT. THE TECH HEAVY LEADING GAINS TODAY. YOU CAN SEE THAT ACTUALLY IS A BIT OF A DRAG IN PROPERTY SHARES EARLIER IN THE MORNING.
谈到日元，今天看到其略有走强，一度再次触及对美元 157 的水平。投资者表示，我们在季度末看到了进一步的资金流入。这种债券市场的企稳实际上正在支撑亚洲股市。MSCI 亚洲指数上涨近 1%。鉴于美国同行隔夜的表现，我们看到科技股今日领涨。科技权重股今日领涨。你可以看到这实际上在早盘对地产股造成了一定的拖累。
QUITE SOME DISAPPOINTMENT WHEN IT COMES TO BEIJING’S NEW STIMULUS PACKAGE ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MORTGAGE SUBSIDY PROGRAM. YOU SEE A BIT OF A SELLOFF THERE AND YOU’RE ALSO SEEING HARDWARE SHARES IN CHINA DRAGGING TODAY, ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THEIR LONG HOLIDAY STARTING TOMORROW. BACK TO YOU. STEPHEN: LOOKING FORWARD TO THAT. WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. THANK YOU. NOW OIL IS HOLDING STEADY AFTER ITS BIGGEST DROP IN MORE THAN A WEEK ON SIGNS THAT MILITARY EAST SUPPLIES ARE PRETTY MUCH BACK TO WHERE IT WAS BEFORE THE IRAN WAR STARTED.
北京的新刺激计划，尤其是住房抵押贷款补贴项目，带来了相当大的失望。你看到那里出现了一些抛售，今天中国硬件股也在拖后腿，尤其是在明天开始的长假前夕。回到你身边。斯蒂芬：对此充满期待。温妮·许在香港报道。谢谢。目前油价在大跌一周多后企稳，迹象表明中东军事供应已基本恢复到伊朗战争开始前的水平。
LET’S GET THE LATEST FROM ABEER ABU OMAR WHO JOINS US FROM DUBAI. WHAT ARE WE LEARNING ABOUT ENERGY FLOWS? WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES THIS MAKE TO THE MARKET? ABEER: GOOD MORNING, STEPHEN. FIRST, JPMORGAN AND GOLDMAN SACHS ARE NOTING THAT FLOWS, CRUDE FLOWS THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ ARE 90% OF WHAT THEY WERE PREWAR. THAT IS A HUGE NUMBER. THAT IS ALMOST ALL OF IT. DIESEL OF COURSE AND OTHER CRUDE PRODUCTS ARE LOWER. WHAT WE’RE SEEING IS THIS IS NOT SAFETY RETURNING.
让我们从迪拜的阿比尔·阿布·奥马尔（Abeer Abu Omar）那里获取最新消息。关于能源流动情况，我们了解到什么？这对市场有何影响？阿比尔：早上好，斯蒂芬。首先，摩根大通和高盛指出，通过霍尔木兹海峡的原油流量是战前水平的90%。这是一个巨大的数字。几乎全部恢复了。当然，柴油和其他原油产品则较低。我们看到的情况是，安全并未回归。
SHIP OWNERS ARE ABLE TO GO THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITH SUSTAINED RISK AND LACK OF SAFETY THAT WE’RE SEEING ACROSS THE WATER WAY. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THESE NUMBERS, 98% THAT, SHOULD SUGGEST TO YOU OR LEAD THAT BRENT CRUDE PRICES SHOULD BE DROPPING. WE’RE STILL SEEING THEM AROUND $103 PER BARREL. THE REASON BEHIND THE ELEVATED LEVELS IS BECAUSE OF COURSE OF THE MONTHS IN DEFICIT THAT WE WERE SEEING THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS WAR AND THE HIGH PEAK OF THIS WAR.
船东能够穿越霍尔木兹海峡，尽管水路沿线持续存在风险且缺乏安全保障。当你看到这些数字时，98%的数据应该让你认为或推断布伦特原油价格应该下跌。我们仍然看到它们维持在每桶103美元左右。价格居高不下的原因是，当然，由于在整个战争期间以及这场战争的高峰期，我们看到了数月的赤字。
SOME OF THE NUMBERS WE HAVE VEEN QUITE STAGGERING. 17.5 MILLION BARRELS OF PURE CRUDE THAT ARE CROSS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND WE’RE SEEING POSITIVE SIGNS OUT OF SAUDI ARABIA. 50% CAPACITY. STEPHEN: POSITIVE SIGNAL. THANK YOU FOR POINTING OUT THE DEFICIT. ABEER ABU OMAR LIVE IN DUBAI FOR US. THANK YOU. STILL AHEAD, MANCHESTER CITY DEFIANT AFTER BEING FOUND GOVERNMENT ARTIFICIALLY BOOSTING ITS FINANCIAL RESULTS. MORE ON THAT LATER.
我们手头的一些数字相当惊人。每天有1750万桶纯原油穿越霍尔木兹海峡，而且我们看到了来自沙特阿拉伯的积极信号。产能达到50%。斯蒂芬：积极的信号。谢谢你指出赤字问题。阿比尔·阿布·奥马尔在迪拜为我们现场报道。谢谢。接下来还有更多：曼城在被发现政府人为推高其财务结果后依然 defiant（强硬/不屈）。稍后会有更多报道。
FIRST A LOOK AT THE INFLATION DATA AND HIGH ENERGY COSTS. THAT IS NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ STEPHEN: WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG "DAYBREAK: EUROPE." WE GOT THE LATEST INFLATION DATA FROM FRANCE, GERMANY AND ITALY TODAY. IT WILL BE WATCHED FOR KLUSE HOW MUCH MORE THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANKS COULD RAISE RATES AFTER THE SPANISH DATA CAME IN HIGHER THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. 8:45 LOCAL TIME. EXPECTING TO SEE THE INFLATION RATE TICK UP IN FRANCE.
首先看一下通胀数据和高昂的能源成本。这将是接下来的内容。这是彭博社。♪ 斯蒂芬：欢迎回到彭博社《早间新闻：欧洲》。我们今天收到了法国、德国和意大利的最新通胀数据。鉴于西班牙昨天的数据高于预期，人们将密切关注欧洲央行在加息方面还能走多远。当地时间8:45。预计法国的通胀率将小幅上升。
THIS COMES AFTER STRONG PRIVATE SECTOR ACTIVITY DATA AND WE HAVE A BUDGET UNVEILING BY THE GOVERNMENT COMING TOMORROW AS WELL. WHAT SORT OF PICTURE ARE WE EXPECTING?
这是在强劲的非农就业数据和政府将于明天公布预算之后发生的。我们期望看到什么样的局面？
WE HAVE TO SEE TO SAY IT IS THE POLITICAL RISK IS FRONT AND CENTER. TRYING TO GET ALL OF THOSE THINGS IN CONTROL IN THE FORM OF THE BUDGET IS THE GREAT DEBATE THAT IS HAPPENING. THE DIFFERENCE YOU HAVE WITH FRANCE AND OTHER EUROPEAN ECONOMYS IS WHILE INFLATION IS ELEVATING, IT IS GOING FROM THE WRONG DIRECTION, IT IS NOT AT A CRITICAL LEVEL. THE ECB POLICY NOW IS MORE IF CUSSED ON CONTAINING INFLATION THAN A FACILE TAKING IT GROWTH.
我们必须承认，政治风险是当前最核心的议题。试图通过预算形式将所有这些因素纳入掌控，正是当前激烈辩论的焦点。与法国及其他欧洲经济体相比，尽管通胀水平上升，但其方向是错误的，尚未达到临界水平。欧洲央行（ECB）当前的政策重心更侧重于遏制通胀，而非轻易刺激增长。
FRANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY MOVING THE DIRECTION THEY WANT TO MOVE PARTICULARLY WITH THE RATES GOING UP NOT JUST BECAUSE OF THE ECB BUT THE BOND MARKET SELLOFF. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE FOR FRANCE AND POTENTIAL NEXT PRESIDENT AND THE FISCAL PICTURE GOING FORWARD, THEY WANT TO ISSUE 340 BILLION EUROS WORTH OF DEBT NEXT YEAR, A 10% INCREASE FROM THIS YEAR. THAT IS A RECORD HIGH. THAT MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCING WHEN YOU’RE THINKING OVER THE BORROWING COSTS IN FRANCE.
法国未必正朝着其期望的方向发展，尤其是利率上升，这不仅是因为欧洲央行的政策，还因为债券市场的抛售。当我们展望法国的未来、潜在的下一任总统以及未来的财政状况时，他们计划明年发行价值3400亿欧元的债务，较今年增加10%。这是创纪录的高位。当考虑到法国的借贷成本时，这会产生巨大差异。
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE SPREAD BRYAN BETWEEN GERMAN
当你观察德国
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