OpenAI推迟IPO至明年，多位美联储官员今日发表讲话

The market is taking into consideration the scale of capital spending. The drivers of growth are in particular the eye spending boom. This market has a correlation breakdown under the surface. The market's bracing for the same sort of episodic indigestion. Sometimes when there is volatility that can actually be an opportunity. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Jonathan Ferro Lisa Abramowitz and Annmarie Horden earn live from New York City this morning.

Good morning. Good morning for our audience worldwide. Bloomberg Surveillance starts right now coming into Tuesday on shaky ground, the eye trade helping to insulate equities from bond yields a multi-decade highs as the president is convening tank leaders with regulation top of mind and throw off its IPO prospectus is leaking. Reuters reporting some big risks and some major costs. So is prospectus, as leaked to Reuters, opposes the risk of catastrophic, catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.

Okay, so there's that side of things at the same time. They plan to spend $518 billion in cloud computing and infrastructure applications over the next few years. So yay for the spending, maybe in terms of supporting the AI trade. On the other hand, the idea that any kind of AI system could resist, shut down, and conceal or manipulate information doesn't exactly leave people feeling good. What struck me about this prospectus, as well, in Reuters, is that they devoted roughly 80 pages of the 261 page main body of its prospectus, laying out risk factors.

That's nearly twice the 48 pages it actually used to describe its business. So they're coming out basically saying here are all the risks. And then guess what? They're gonna go over the white House and have lunch with the president. Yeah. And if you can't stop the prospectus from leaking, how can you sound, frankly, like can we trust them to regulate themselves? Surely that's got to be part of the conversation this morning.

OpenAI or much looking good after this from anthropic. Well, yes, this is going to be a really interesting lunch because you have the likes of OpenAI and anthropic leaders meeting off of Tencent. Wong, who says. This isn't an issue of you guys self-regulating. This is an issue. Of you guys not having responsible business models. Given the fact that OpenAI did delay some of their more advanced models for security concerns.

Gives a sense that they are now prioritizing the business concern of having rogue AI agents over potentially being first with the most frontier models. The OpenAI IPO delayed into next year, maybe even longer. This IPO is already delayed. It's leaking into November, perhaps even longer. Mr. Miller just moments ago postponing their IPO due to uncertainty in the market. This is not the IPO window the bankers were hoping for coming into full.

This was supposed to be an incredibly active season. Remember, every single conversation that we had with bankers of major Wall Street firms said the pipeline is as full as they have ever seen it. This may be what the Federal Reserve is trying to accomplish. The uncertainty in markets, the turmoil in the implied volatility in bond yields, all leading to this window shutting at least for opportune financing and giving a little bit of, uh, I don't know, a less frothy edge to this otherwise pretty a bullion market.

Speaking of the Federal Reserve, have you seen the list of speakers today? There are six of them. Six fed officials speaking later today on a range of things, including payments, the economy and a monetary policy. It kicks off later on this morning with Governor Bowman. You'll hear from Governor Barr. You'll hear from Austin Goolsbee once again. Remember his speech last week getting a lot of attention. That line about this not being painless look out for Williams later on 2 p.m.

Eastern time. That was a guy heading into this decision that some people thought on the margin might be one of those who dissented to the decision to hike interest rates. Where does he stand on underlying inflation, underlying inflation in America? When he said that it was promising, and then he voted for a rate hike, and then he came out and said, ultimately, we need to make more progress. And it's clear that inflation is moving in the wrong direction.

Bob Michael of J.P. Morgan yesterday highlighted that John Williams was arguably the most important speaker to hear from. Given the fact where are the doves? There is no dovish moderating voice on the FOMC at 3 p.m., so 2 p.m. is fed to the first John Williams, and then at 3 p.m. Chris Waller also speaks. Interesting to hear both of them back to back later today. Get some data as well later on this morning. Looking for jolts, job openings, the appetizer for a whole long list of data points throughout this week on the labor market.

We'll get claims later this week ADP as well. Payrolls on Friday in the mix, PCA on Wednesday PCA in focus inflation in America just weeks away from the midterms. This is a huge problem still. I mean front page of Axios this morning is talking about how GOP strategist are basically saying that heartland of America's farm country is struggling right now. And that might mean what you would think a Republican stronghold could flip what's going on.

And this administration is still debating whether or not to have a diesel export ban. It's not so much the issue of oil. The issue is underneath the surface when it comes to gasoline and diesel, it's in the product. We've said it a million times on this program, that debate, that policy proposal just one night. Coming up on the program will catch up with any if you do any research a stubborn yield squeeze equities Dan Ives of York the lives of an anthropic IPO prospectus lakes and Anders Pearson of Nuveen projecting peak inflation.

We begin this hour with elevated yields keeping the pressure on equity markets worldwide at John Sandy. If you have any research rising, we suspect that the bond market has been hacked by bond vigilantes. Algorithms. They respond to news headlines with huge trades that exacerbate volatility. At. Joins us now for more. And welcome to the program, sir. It's good to see you. Do you believe we might be entering a little bit of a negative feedback loop in this bond market where high yields fuel deficit worries and that fuels high yield.

So we're on the brink of that. And I think we're on the brink of it. We're sort of in the midst of it. We've actually seen I think uh since the beginning of the year. A synchronized increase in bond yields might actually have started last year. I think a lot of that has to do with what we've previously discussed. Um, the Bank of Japan is raising interest rates, and that is causing an unwind of the global carry trade, which I think is affecting, uh, global bonds.

Uh, and so a lot of that is kind of a knee jerk mechanical event. Um, but at the same time, I think we also have these algorithms that'll take any news whatsoever that's out there and some of that's been bearish and kind of blow it up. Uh, so we get these rapid increases in bond yields. And at what point do you think it becomes self-limiting that the bank steps in. Because people start to worry about the damage. I think there's already a lot of worry about the damage.

People are already kind of wondering what's what's going to break here. Uh, so I think we're already at that point. I think the best way to monitor that is to just, uh, keep watching where the bond yield is relative to short term rates. Usually you start to get, uh, bond yields going up less than short term rates when bond investors become, uh, increasingly convinced that a short term rates continue to go up, uh, that something will break.

And of course, the two year treasury, uh, here and around the world has been a very good leading indicator of what central banks are going to be doing. And right now, uh, the two year treasuries, uh, in all the major, uh, countries in the world are pointing