特朗普称伊朗战争将很快结束，美债收益率创近20年新高
White House Releases Taxpayer-Funded Midterm Ads
美债收益率创近20年新高直接影响全球资产定价与流动性预期，叠加地缘局势对油价的扰动，是宏观交易的核心变量；同时关注AI监管新动态。建议留意债市波动对权益市场的溢出效应。
THIS IS BALANCE OF POWER, LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.. KAILEY: TONIGHT, DEAL OR NO DEAL? THE BOND MARKET SELLOFF DEEPENS AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP REJECTED IRAN'S LATEST OFFER TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. WHILE TRUMP SAYS NEGOTIATIONS ARE HAPPENING, IRANIAN OFFICIALS ARE EXPRESSING PESSIMISM ABOUT REACHING A DEAL. WE WILL DISCUSS THE BACKDROP WITH REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMAN MIKE FLOOD OF NEBRASKA. PLUS ALL EYES ON NOVEMBER.
这里是《权力平衡》节目，从华盛顿特区现场直播。凯利：今晚，是达成协议还是谈崩？在特朗普总统拒绝伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的最新提议后，债券市场的抛售进一步加剧。尽管特朗普称正在进行谈判，但伊朗官员对达成协议表示悲观。我们将与来自内布拉斯加州的共和党众议员迈克·弗洛德讨论这一背景。此外，所有人的目光都投向十一月。
WITH JUST OVER A MONTH UNTIL THE MIDTERMS, PRESIDENT TRUMP IS PROMISING AND AGGRESSIVE FINAL CAMPAIGN PUSH TO HELP REPUBLICANS HOLD CONGRESS. VETERAN ELECTION ANALYST CHARLIE COOK SAYS THE HOUSE HAS BEEN A DONE DEAL FOR SOME TIME. HE JOINS US LATER THIS HOUR. AMID A GROWING DEBATE OVER AI SAFETY AND REGULATION, PRESIDENT TRUMP AND SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON MEET WITH TOP INDUSTRY LEADERS AT THE WHITE HOUSE TUESDAY. ANTHROPIC'S CEO IS SET TO ATTEND FRESH OFF OF A PRIVATE DINNER WITH THE PRESIDENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
距离中期选举仅剩一个多月，特朗普总统承诺将采取积极且强硬的最后竞选攻势，以帮助共和党保住国会席位。资深选举分析师查理·库克表示，众议院的控制权早已尘埃落定。他将在本小时晚些时候加入我们。随着关于人工智能安全与监管的争论日益激烈，特朗普总统和众议长迈克·约翰逊于周二在白宫与行业高层领导人会面。Anthropic 的首席执行官计划在周日晚与总统共进私人晚餐后出席此次会议。
FROM BLOOMBERG'S WASHINGTON, D.C. STUDIOS TO OUR TV AND RADIO AUDIENCES WORLDWIDE, WELCOME. JOE: PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ONCE AGAIN PREDICTING THAT THE WAR WITH IRAN WILL BE OVER SOON. THE PRESIDENT REVEALING FRESH TALKS WITH IRAN THROUGH MEDIATORS TODAY. WHILE DIRECTLY LINKING THE PROGRESS ON P STOCKS TO RELIEF FOR AMERICANS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HIGHER PRICES. JOINING US NOW, SKYLER WOODHOUSE, WHO IS LIVE AT THE WHITE HOUSE.
从彭博社华盛顿特区演播室向全球电视和广播观众致以欢迎。乔：特朗普总统再次预测与伊朗的战争即将结束。总统今天透露通过调解人与伊朗进行了新一轮会谈，同时直接将股市进展与美国民众因物价上涨而陷入困境的缓解联系起来。现在与我们连线的是在白宫现场报道的斯凯勒·伍德豪斯。
THE PRESIDENT SUGGESTING NUMBER ONE, THE TALKS ARE UNDERWAY, BUT ALSO FLOATING THE IDEA OF MORE INTENSE FIGHTING AFTER THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. WE'VE HEARD THIS LINE MANY TIMES, THAT THE WAR WILL BE OVER SOON. HAS ANYTHING CHANGED? SKYLER: THE TALKS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY VOLATILE WITH LOTS OF BACK AND FORTH. HERE IS WHAT THE PRESIDENT HAD TO SAY.
总统暗示第一点是谈判正在进行中，同时也放风称在中期选举后将展开更激烈的战斗。我们多次听到这种说法，即战争很快就会结束。情况有变化吗？斯凯勒：谈判极其动荡，双方反复拉扯。以下是总统所说的话。
IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. WE WILL WIN THE WAR VERY SOON. INSTANTLY, GAS PRICES WILL COME TUMBLING DOWN. IT'S GOING TO GO PRETTY QUICKLY. SKYLER: THE PRESIDENT HAS CONTINUED TO STATE THE U.S. WILL WIN THE WAR AND TODAY HE TALKED ABOUT HOW THE U.S. HAS ELIMINATED IRAN'S MILITARY, BUT IT STILL RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO THE NEXT STEPS, IF THE MILITARY HAS BEEN ELIMINATED LIKE HE SAID. WHEN WILL THIS WAR WRAP UP, ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS ARE NEAR AND GAS PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE.
伊朗永远不会拥有核武器。我们将很快赢得这场战争。汽油价格会立刻暴跌。事情会相当迅速地解决。斯凯勒：总统继续声称美国将赢得战争，今天他还谈到美国已经摧毁了伊朗的军事力量，但这仍然引发了关于下一步行动的疑问：如果像他说的那样军事力量已被消灭，这场战争何时才能结束？尤其是随着中期选举临近，汽油价格仍在持续上涨。
WE SAW TREASURIES SELLING OFF. THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT THE FED PLANS TO DO. THE PRESIDENT CONTINUES TO TOUT POTENTIAL FIGHTING. KAILEY: OR A DEAL AS HE SUGGESTED. PERHAPS THAT CHOICE WON'T BE MADE UNTIL AFTER THE MIDTERMS. WHEN WE CONSIDER WHAT OTHER DEALS PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS TRIED TO MAKE, HE TALKED ABOUT TRADE WITH XI JINPING. WE HAVE SEEN THE FRUITS OF THAT IN THIS DEAL TO REDUCE TARIFFS ON GOODS BETWEEN THE COUNTRIES.
我们看到国库券正在抛售。人们也在质疑美联储计划采取什么行动。总统继续宣扬潜在的冲突。凯利：或者正如他所建议的那样达成一项协议。也许这个选择要等到中期选举之后才会做出。当我们考虑特朗普总统曾试图达成的其他协议时，他谈到了与习近平的贸易问题。我们已经在这项减少两国间商品关税的协议中看到了其成果。
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE AI CONVERSATION WITH CHINA. I WONDER HOW MUCH WE SHOULD EXPECT THAT'LL BE FORMED BY THE SUMMIT HAPPENING TOMORROW. HOW MUCH IT MIGHT BE INFORMED BY THE CONVERSATION THE PRESIDENT HAD WITH DARIO AMODEI LAST NIGHT. SKYLER: CLEARLY, AI IS TOP OF MIND FOR THE PRESIDENT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT LATE NIGHT WITH ANTHROPIC'S CEO. THE PRESIDENT HAS TALKED ABOUT AI A LOT, THAT HE WANTS TO BEAT CHINA IN THE AI COMPETITION.
目前尚不清楚与中国在人工智能方面的对话进展如何。我想知道明天的峰会会在多大程度上塑造这一局面。这在多大程度上会受到总统昨晚与达里奥·阿莫代（Dario Amodei）谈话的影响。斯凯勒：显然，人工智能是总统最关注的话题，尤其是鉴于他与Anthropic首席执行官的深夜交谈。总统已经多次谈到人工智能，表示他希望在美国与中国的AI竞争中胜出。
ALL OF THIS COMES AT A TIME WHEN AI LEADERS, TECH LEADERS ARE CALLING ON GUARDRAILS TO SLOW DOWN THE PUSH TO UNVEIL ALL OF THIS AI TECHNOLOGY. THE PRESIDENT WANTS TO COME OUT ON TOP, SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THEY FIND THAT BALANCE BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT'S AMBITIONS AROUND BEATING CHINA IN THE AI RACE, BUT ALSO TRYING TO WORK WITH TECH LEADERS AROUND GUARDRAILS AS THE TECHNOLOGY PROGRESSES. JOE: THANK YOU SO MUCH, SKYLER WOODHOUSE, LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WITH BREAKING NEWS AS WE TALK ABOUT AI.
这一切发生之际，人工智能领袖和技术领袖正呼吁建立护栏，以减缓推出所有这些人工智能技术的步伐。总统希望占据上风，因此我们将不得不观察他们如何在总统赢得AI竞赛的雄心与技术进步过程中与技术领袖合作建立护栏之间找到平衡。乔：非常感谢，斯凯勒·伍德豪斯，我们在白宫现场报道突发新闻，我们正在讨论人工智能。
ANTHROPIC ANNOUNCING A COLLABORATION WITH NVIDIA ON AGENT SECURITY. EARLIER TODAY, NVIDIA ROLLED OUT AN INITIATIVE JUST IN TIME FOR THIS CONVERSATION, SOMETHING CALLED THE OPEN AGENT SAFETY PLATFORM. IT INVOLVES PARTNERSHIP WITH 100 DIFFERENT INDUSTRY PARTNERS, INCLUDING ANTHROPIC AS WELL AS MICROSOFT AND PALANTIR. A RED HEADLINE ON THE TERMINAL WE WILL BE FOLLOWING. WE TURN TO MARKETS WITH STOCKS CLOSING IN THE RED.
Anthropic宣布与英伟达在代理安全方面展开合作。今天早些时候，英伟达推出了一个恰逢此次对话的倡议，称为“开放代理安全平台”（Open Agent Safety Platform）。该平台涉及与100多家不同行业合作伙伴的伙伴关系，包括Anthropic、微软和Palantir。终端上的一条红色头条新闻我们将持续关注。我们转向市场，股市收盘下跌。
FRESH TENSIONS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN. BRINGING MORE VOLATILITY TO THE OIL MARKET AND KEEPING BOND YIELDS AT DECADE HIGHS. WE TURN TO ELLEN A GRIFFEY OH, LIVE IN NEW YORK.
美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势加剧。这给石油市场带来更多波动，并使债券收益率保持在十年高位。我们转向艾伦·格里菲（Ellen GRIFFEY），她正在纽约现场报道。
THE STORY OF THE DAY WAS THOSE HIGHER BOND YIELDS. THE 10 YEAR HITTING THE HIGHEST IN NEARLY TWO DECADES. THIS HASN'T JUST BEEN A STORY OF THE DAY BUT THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TRADERS DOUBTING THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS A HANDLE ON INFLATION, PARTICULARLY WHEN WE SEE OIL PRICES STAYING AT MALAAK -- STAYING ELEVATED. THE END RESULT IS HIGHER INTEREST RATES. THAT WEIGHS ON EQUITY MARKETS AS WELL. THE S&P 500 WAS LOWER, THE NASDAQ WAS LOWER.
当天的焦点故事是更高的债券收益率。10年期国债收益率触及近二十年来的最高水平。这不仅是一天的故事，而是过去几周的情况。交易员怀疑美联储是否掌控了通胀，特别是当我们看到油价——玛拉卡（MalaaK）——保持高位时。最终结果是利率上升。这也对股市造成了压力。标普500指数下跌，纳斯达克指数下跌。
THE PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX, DOWN A WHILE -- DOWN ABOUT 1.6%. THERE WERE A COUPLE BRIGHT SPOTS AND I WANT TO HIGHLIGHT INDIVIDUAL EQUITY MOVERS. AMD WAS LOWER IN THE REGULAR TRADING SESSION. THE CHIPMAKER AGREED TO ACQUIRE WORLD LABS FOR $8.2 BILLION. THE COMPANY WAS FOUNDED BY A RESEARCHER, FAYE FAY LEE. -- DUE TO A SOFTWARE ISSUE AND THEN FINALLY, SOFTWARE COMPANY MONGODB, SHARES A SINKING TO END THE DAY. THE CEO LEAVING FOR A SENIOR ROLE AT META.
费城半导体指数下跌——跌幅约为1.6%。有一些亮点，我想强调个别股票的变动。AMD在常规交易时段下跌。这家芯片制造商同意以82亿美元收购World Labs。该公司由研究员Faye Fay Lee创立。--由于软件问题，最后是软件公司MongoDB，其股价全天持续下跌。CEO将离职前往Meta担任高级职务。
OIL, MUCH IN FOCUS. THE U.S. AND IRAN TENSIONS STILL ONGOING, HOPES FADING THAT WE WILL SEE A DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH, AND THAT IS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHER OIL PRICES. THESE LEVELS ARE STILL ELEVATED AND IT IS BRINGING UP BOND YIELDS AND DRIVING DOWN STOCKS. KAILEY: EMILY GRAFFEO IN NEW YORK, THANK YOU SO MUCH. TO RETURN TO THAT BREAKING NEWS AS ANTHROPIC ANNOUNCES A PARTNERSHIP WITH NVIDIA, A DIFFERENT LAYER OF SECURITY.
石油受到高度关注。美国和伊朗的紧张局势仍在持续，人们对看到外交突破的希望正在消退，这转化为油价上涨。这些水平仍然居高不下，并推高了债券收益率，导致股市下跌。凯利：艾米莉·格拉菲奥在纽约，非常感谢你。回到突发新闻，Anthropic宣布与NVIDIA达成合作，涉及不同层面的安全性。
OPEN AGENT SAFETY PLATFORM. WE TURN NOW TO THE SENIOR ECONOMIC AND NATIONAL SECURITY FELLOW AT AI NOW WILL STOP SHE PREVIOUSLY SERVED ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL, LEADING PRESIDENT BIDEN'S BLUEPRINT FOR A AI BILL OF RIGHTS. AS WE DEAL WITH THE NEWS AT HAND, NVIDIA MAKING THIS ANNOUNCEMENT THAT IT HOPES TO RESTRAIN SOME OF THE BEHAVIOR OF AGENTS. ANTHROPIC GETTING IN ON THIS. SAYING THEY CAN BE USED TO LIMIT WHAT AN AGENT CAN DO AND CONFIRM LIMITS ARE IN PLACE.
开放代理安全平台。我们现在转向AI Now研究所的高级经济与国家安全研究员She（注：原文疑似有误，应为She或特定人名，此处保留语境）。她此前曾在国家经济委员会任职，领导拜登总统的AI权利蓝图。在处理当前消息时，NVIDIA做出这一宣布，希望限制某些代理的行为。Anthropic也参与其中，表示可以利用它来限制代理能做什么，并确认已设置限制。
IS THIS TO THE ANSWER AS TO HOW TO REIN IN TECHNOLOGY THAT INCREASINGLY IS SHOWING IT IS CAPABLE OF ESCAPING SANDBOXES AND NOT FOLLOWING ORDERS?
这是否是回答如何遏制技术的答案，该技术日益显示出能够逃脱沙箱环境且不遵循指令的能力？
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME. THERE IS NO ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL TO THE QUESTION OF SECURITY. WHILE THIS IS A NOTABLE STEP AND I THINK IT'S NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE NVIDIA CEO COMMENTS ABOUT THE NEED FOR THESE PRODUCTS TO BE SAFE BEFORE THEY ARE DEPLOYED. THE FACT THAT THE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE SAFETY OF THESE PRODUCTS RESTS WITH THOSE DEPLOYING THE TECHNOLOGY. AS A NEXT STEP, THIS DOES MAKE SENSE BUT I STRESS THAT THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE ONE SILVER BULLET OR ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL ANSWER TO A COMPLEX SECURITY QUESTION.
非常感谢邀请我。关于安全问题，不存在一刀切的解决方案。虽然这是一个值得注意的步骤，但鉴于NVIDIA CEO曾评论称这些产品在部署前必须确保安全，我认为这并不令人意外。事实是，这些产品的安全责任在于部署该技术的人。作为下一步，这是合理的，但我强调，对于复杂的安全问题，不会有单一的灵丹妙药或一刀切的解决方案。
JOE: KAILEY MENTIONED THE AI BILL OF RIGHTS. HOW ARE YOU LOOKING AT THIS NOW? THIS HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, NEVER MIND MONTHS OR YEARS. DOES THIS CHANGE THE SECURITY THREAT, THE WAY YOU ARE LOOKING AT THIS TECHNOLOGY? DID YOU MISS AN OPPORTUNITY, TO CONTROL THIS WHEN THERE WAS STILL A CHANCE?
乔：凯利提到了AI权利法案。你现在如何看待这个问题？在过去几周，更不用说几个月或几年里，情况已经发生了变化。这会改变安全威胁吗？会改变你看待这项技术的方式吗？你是否错过了控制它的机会，当时还有可能做到这一点吗？
I THINK THERE IS ALWAYS AN OPPORTUNITY TO GET BACK ON TRACK, BUT THAT FUNDAMENTALLY BEGINS BY TREATING THESE FIRMS LIKE WE DO ANY OTHER FIRMS RUNNING IN THE OTHER KIND OF BUSINESS. SOME OF THE TECHNOLOGY IS NOVEL, BUT THE QUESTIONS THEY ARE RAISING AND THE RISKS ARE NOT NOVEL THEMSELVES. SOME OF THESE COMPANIES ARE NEW TO THESE QUESTIONS, BUT THE LAW IS NOT. IF YOU ARE DESIGNING AND RELEASING A PROJECT THAT CREATES HARMS OR BREAKS THE LAW, WE GENERALLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR THAT BEHAVIOR.
我认为，始终有机会让事物重回正轨，但这根本上始于将这些公司像对待其他行业中的任何企业一样来对待。其中一些技术是新颖的，但它们提出的问题以及风险本身并不新颖。有些公司对这些问题是新来的，但法律并非如此。如果你设计并发布一个造成危害或违反法律的项目，我们通常会对这种行为进行惩处。
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WAS A MISSED OPPORTUNITY, I DO BELIEVE THERE WAS A WINDOW IN WHICH WE COULD HAVE ACTED MORE AGGRESSIVELY. IN THAT TIME, THERE WERE COMMITMENTS. BUT YOU GO FOR VOLUNTARY COMMITMENTS WHEN YOU ARE NOT ABLE TO MAKE PROGRESS ON HARD CONSTRAINTS AND GUARDRAILS. DO I WISH THAT WE HAD TAKEN A MORE AGGRESSIVE POSTURE? ABSOLUTELY. BUT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF COMPETING INTERESTS, AND WE LANDED WHERE WE DID.
关于是否存在错失的机会，我确实认为曾经有一个窗口期，我们可以采取更积极的行动。在那个时候，有过承诺。但当你在硬性约束和护栏方面无法取得进展时，你会寻求自愿承诺。我希望我们采取了更积极的姿态吗？绝对希望。但是存在许多相互竞争的关切，而我们最终处于我们所处的位置。
KAILEY: AND NOW IT IS THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. HE HAS SAID THINGS THAT ECHO SOME
凯利：现在是特朗普政府。他说了一些回声
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力