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特朗普关税冲击美加贸易,Gordie Howe大桥成双边关系破裂象征

This Bridge Was Built to Unite the US and Canada. Then Tariffs Hit.

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宏观政策直接冲击跨境物流与制造业成本,关注关税落地后的实际贸易流向变化及企业应对策略。

Westin: This is a story about what could have been and what could be once again. Bridges connect places and people. The Ambassador Bridge has joined Windsor, Ontario, with Detroit, Michigan, since the 1920s, long representing the close ties between two great economies. A new and improved version of the bridge was meant to draw those economies even closer. But instead, it has become a symbol of differences and disputes, of connections once strong that are now fraying or broken.

韦斯汀:这是一个关于本可能发生、且可能再次发生的故事。桥梁连接着地点与人群。自20世纪20年代以来,大使桥将安大略省的温莎与密歇根州的底特律连接在一起,长期以来代表着两大经济体之间的紧密联系。一座全新且经过改进的桥梁版本旨在使这两个经济体联系得更加紧密。但相反,它却成为了分歧与争议的标志,那些曾经牢固的联系如今正在松动或断裂。

After 25 years of planning and 8 years of construction, the Gordie Howe Bridge opened to traffic in July. -This achievement, having one of the most fluid and secure high volume border crossings in the world, is a testament to the longstanding partnership between Canada, the United States, and the state of Michigan. Westin: There's just one problem. The opening ceremony for the bridge that connects Detroit, Michigan and Windsor, Ontario, was at first delayed and ultimately attended only by Canadian officials, the result of President Trump's displeasure with the bridge and even more with the economic relations between the two countries. -I mean, in all fairness to them, they need us to survive. -I don't believe in escalating the conflict.

在历经25年的规划和8年的建设后,戈迪·豪大桥于7月通车。-这一成就——拥有世界上最流畅、最安全的高流量边境口岸之一——证明了加拿大、美国以及密歇根州之间长期以来的伙伴关系。韦斯汀:但这里有一个问题。连接密歇根州底特律和安大略省温莎的大桥开通仪式最初被推迟,最终仅有加拿大官员出席,这是特朗普总统对这座大桥乃至两国间经济关系不满的结果。-我是说,公平地说,他们需要我们来维持生存。-我不相信升级冲突。

That's not constructive. But our tariffs are necessary to protect our workers, protect our companies and our communities. We can't let American goods into Canada tariff-free while they charge our companies to export them. Westin: The new bridge over the Detroit River is named for Gordie Howe, known as Mr. Hockey, the man from Saskatoon, Canada, who spent much of his career on the other side of the border as the star of the Detroit Red Wings. -Gordie Howe was probably the greatest hockey player of his day, and some say of all time.

那并不具有建设性。但我们的关税是必要的,以保护我们的工人、公司和社区。我们不能让美国商品免税进入加拿大,而他们却向我们的出口公司收费。韦斯汀:横跨底特律河的新大桥以戈迪·豪命名,他被称为“冰球先生”,来自加拿萨斯卡图恩,在其职业生涯的大部分时间里都在边境的另一侧度过,作为底特律红翼队的明星球员。-戈迪·豪可能是那个时代最伟大的冰球运动员,甚至有人说是有史以来最伟大的。

Westin: The bridge's namesake was for Canadians and Americans a man who symbolized both countries and cultures, and the things they had in common. Roy MacSkimming is the author of "Gordie, a Hockey Legend." -He won 6 league scoring championships. He was named most valuable player 6 times. He led the Detroit Red Wings to 4 Stanley Cups in a row. And he had an incredibly long-lasting career. He retired twice and did not retire permanently until he was 52 and a grandfather.

韦斯汀:大桥的命名对象对于加拿大人和美国人来说,是一个象征两国及其文化共同点的人物。罗伊·麦斯卡明是《戈迪,一位冰球传奇》一书的作者。-他赢得了6次联盟得分冠军。他6次被评为最有价值球员。他带领底特律红翼队连续4次夺得斯坦利杯。而且他的职业生涯极其持久。他曾两次退役,直到52岁成为祖父后才永久退休。

Westin: Gordie Howe became someone both Canadians and Americans claimed as one of their own. So it made sense when the new bridge was named for him in 2015 to reflect the joint commitment of both countries to their relationship in trade, in business and in much more. -Canada and the U.S. are tightly linked in terms of trade, have been now for decades. And so a huge amount of business investment has been made that ties those two economies together.

韦斯汀:戈迪·豪成为加拿大人和美国人共同引以为傲的人物。因此,2015年新建的桥梁以他的名字命名是顺理成章的,这反映了两国在贸易、商业及更多领域对彼此关系的共同承诺。-加拿大和美国在贸易方面紧密相连,这种联系已持续数十年。因此,大量的商业投资将这两个经济体紧密联系在一起。

Westin: Michael Belzer is a visiting professor at Cornell University, and Professor Emeritus at Wayne State University. -Just like two economies, like two states would be tied together, Canada has been tied that closely together to the United States for auto industry now for over 60 years. So this is nothing new. This has been here. It's built and baked into the cake at this point. There's no turning back on that. Westin: A lot has changed in the nearly 100 years since the predecessor bridge, the Ambassador, became the first bridge to span the Detroit River. -Built for a different time, different types of vehicles, different amount of trade, different amount of travel back and forth.

韦斯汀:迈克尔·贝尔泽是康奈尔大学的访问教授,也是韦恩州立大学的荣休教授。-就像两个经济体或两个州相互联结一样,加拿大与美国在汽车产业方面的联系已紧密持续了60多年。因此,这并非新鲜事,这种情况早已存在,并已深深融入其中,无法回头。韦斯汀:自前任桥梁——大使桥——成为第一座横跨底特律河的桥梁以来,近100年间发生了巨大变化。-这座桥是为不同的时代、不同类型的车辆、不同的贸易量和不同的往返客流量而建造的。

Really, it's an old bridge. It's been updated in some respects, but it still is very steep, and it's slow, and it effectively for trucks is really a one-lane bridge. Westin: One of the most important things that made the Ambassador Bridge obsolete was the enormous growth in trade crossing between Windsor and Detroit. Canada is the second largest trading partner for the U.S. after Mexico. Last year, the U.S. exported nearly $334 billion of goods to its northern neighbor, and imported $382 billion worth.

事实上,这是一座老旧的桥梁。它在某些方面进行了更新,但仍然非常陡峭,通行缓慢,对于卡车而言,实际上是一座单车道桥梁。韦斯汀:大使桥变得过时最重要的原因之一是温莎与底特律之间跨境贸易的巨大增长。墨西哥之后,加拿大是美国第二大贸易伙伴。去年,美国向北方邻国出口了近3340亿美元的商品,并进口了价值3820亿美元的商品。

And roughly a quarter of those goods went across the Detroit River, traveling on trucks like those of Onfreight Logistics, founded and led by Steve Ondejko. -85% of our business crosses the Windsor-Detroit Bridge to go to and from the central states of the U.S. and Canada, Ontario specifically. Westin: Ondejko's trucks were the first commercial vehicles to go over the Gordie Howe Bridge. -We assisted the Gordie Howe Bridge in testing.

大约四分之一的这些商品通过底特律河运输,由Onfreight Logistics等公司的卡车承运,该公司由史蒂夫·奥登科创立并领导。-我们85%的业务通过温莎-底特律大桥往返于美国中部各州和加拿大安大略省之间。韦斯汀:奥登科的卡车是首批驶过戈迪·豪大桥的商业车辆。-我们协助了戈迪·豪大桥的测试工作。

They were testing their equipment, their technology and the movement of flow of trucks on the bridge. So we participated highly with them to do that and be successful to do that. It was disappointing for everybody when the Gordie Howe Bridge was... President Trump decided it wasn't going to open until he said it was going to open. WESTIN: Just as Gordie Howe grew up in Canada and became a hockey legend playing in the U.S., Ondejko's Onfreight Logistics has strong roots in both countries. -So Onfreight Logistics is a combination of companies, primarily our trucking operation that does international traffic between the U.S. and Canada.

他们正在测试他们的设备、技术以及卡车在桥上的流动情况。因此我们高度参与其中,以确保成功完成这项工作。当戈迪·豪大桥(Gordie Howe Bridge)……特朗普总统决定在他宣布开放之前不会开放时,这对每个人来说都很令人失望。韦斯汀:正如戈迪·豪在加拿大长大并在美国打球成为冰球传奇一样,Ondejko的Onfreight Logistics在这两个国家都有深厚的根基。-所以Onfreight Logistics是几家公司的组合,主要是我们在美国和加拿大之间进行国际运输的卡车业务。

We're transporting over 100 loads per day to and from and across the border. Our operation has 250 employees within the trucking operation and another 50 employees within our warehousing and packaging operations. That has been stable for a number of years and we're actually on a growth pattern now in the last 6 months. Westin: Robust trade has long been at the core of economic relations between the U.S. and Canada. Going back to before NAFTA. -Canada and the U.S., like any two countries, have had at least a small number of barriers protecting certain industries.

我们每天跨境运输超过100车货物。我们的卡车运营部门有250名员工,仓储和包装运营部门另有50名员工。这种情况多年来一直保持稳定,而在过去的6个月里,我们实际上正处于增长态势。韦斯汀:强劲的贸易长期以来一直是美加经济关系的核心。追溯到北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)之前。-加拿大和美国像任何两个国家一样,都设立了一些保护特定行业的壁垒。

So the integration of the two economies is very thorough and it starts actually 60 years ago, an agreement that established the foundations for this relative to the auto industry. They have then extended with NAFTA and then Trump didn't like NAFTA, so he negotiated the USMCA. But that's a treaty and we've now broken the treaty. -Why should we carry Canada? Why should we carry Mexico? Westin: But recently, President Trump's rhetoric and policies have put in question the future of trade relations.

因此,两国经济的融合非常深入,这实际上始于60年前一项为汽车行业奠定基础的协议。随后通过北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)进一步扩展,而特朗普不喜欢NAFTA,所以他谈判达成了《美墨加协定》(USMCA)。但这是一项条约,而我们现在破坏了这项条约。-我们为什么要承担加拿大?为什么要承担墨西哥?韦斯汀:但最近,特朗普总统的言论和政策对贸易关系的未来提出了质疑。

He has made manufacturing the keystone of his trade efforts. For its part, Canada has sought to protect its dairy industry. Dairy that exceeds Canada's quotas is subject to a two to 300 percent levy, making it prohibitively expensive for foreign producers. After initially announcing 50 percent tariffs on Canadian imports, in August, President Trump held off, saying the two countries had reached a deal. That deal never materialized, leading the U.S. tariffs to go forward and Prime Minister Carney to levy his own tariffs against the U.S. -Now what we've seen is this 50 percent tariff on everything.

他将制造业作为其贸易努力的基石。就加拿大而言,它试图保护自己的乳制品行业。超过加拿大配额的乳制品将面临200%至300%的征税,这使得外国生产商的成本高得令人望而却步。在最初宣布对加拿大进口商品征收50%关税后,特朗普总统在8月份暂缓实施,称两国已达成协议。但该协议从未落实,导致美国关税照常实施,特鲁多总理也对美国实施了反制关税。-现在我们看到的是对所有商品征收50%的关税。

Well, what's the purpose of that? Well, it's a whim. And so government by whim is not a modern and responsible business-like way to do trade. All of these things are going to cost us an enormous amount of money. I can't tell you how much the change in GDP will be, but it's a lot. Westin: And it's not just overall GDP growth that may be hurt by the back and forth over U.S.-Canada trade. It's businesses like Onfreight Logistics trying to make investment decisions. -This not knowing changing every 6 months, every 3 months is just unleveling and it's unnerving.

那么,这样做的目的是什么?好吧,这是一时兴起。因此,凭一时兴起的政府决策并非一种现代且负责任的、像做生意一样的贸易方式。所有这些举措都将耗费我们巨额资金。我无法告诉你GDP会变化多少,但数额巨大。韦斯汀:而且,美加贸易的反复拉锯不仅可能损害整体GDP增长,还会影响像Onfreight Logistics这样的企业做出投资决策。-这种每6个月、每3个月就发生变化的不确定性让人失去平衡感,也令人不安。

We're investing millions of dollars in equipment. I've got millions of dollars equipment coming in the next 6 to 12 months. And it's kind of unnerving that this is going on. And how is this going to affect the flow of goods and the flow of international trade? Westin: Paying a price for all that uncertainty may be worth it when the ultimate result will bring real benefits for one economy or the other. But economists like Belzer say that even when the dust eventually settles, there are still real questions about whether tariffs do more harm than good. -In the case of U.S. and Canada specifically, when economies are roughly in the same league with each other, there's really no benefit in maintaining tariffs between the two of them.

我们正在投资数百万美元用于设备采购。未来6到12个月内还将有数百万美元的设备到位。这种情况持续存在让人感到不安。这将如何影响商品流动和国际贸易流动?韦斯汀:当最终结果能为其中一方的经济带来真正利益时,为所有这些不确定性付出代价可能是值得的。但像贝尔泽这样的经济学家表示,即使尘埃落定,关于关税是否弊大于利的问题仍然存在。-具体到美国和加拿大的情况,当两国经济大致处于同一水平时,在两者之间维持关税确实没有任何好处。

Tariffs are significant when you

当你

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