David Rubenstein谈体育资产估值与洛杉矶湖人队125亿美元交易
David Rubenstein on the Billion Dollar Sports Boom
提供了一手机构大佬对体育资产估值逻辑(收入倍数vs利润)的最新观点,并列举了湖人、凯尔特人等具体交易数据,对关注另类资产或体育板块估值的读者有参考价值。
Owner David Rubenstein is out with a new book that focuses on leadership through the lens of sports. It is called inside the owner's box. We talked to him about his management philosophy. Let's start with how you came to own the the Baltimore Orioles. You have this long illustrious investment career. There's an inkling that maybe this team will come up for sale. Why was it something that you had any interest in in doing?
创始人大卫·鲁宾斯坦推出了一本新书,聚焦于通过体育视角看领导力。这本书名为《Inside the Owner's Box》(老板包厢内)。我们与他探讨了其管理哲学。让我们从你如何成为巴尔的摩金莺队老板说起。你有着漫长而辉煌的职业生涯。有一种迹象表明这支球队可能会出售。为什么你会对此感兴趣?
Well, I grew up in Baltimore, and I always was a fan of the Orioles as a boy. And when I was a boy, baseball was the big sport. So I was a real baseball fan. The Orioles were my team. I drifted away when I went to college and then law school, and then I worked in a in Washington for most of my career. But I kept the little tabs with Baltimore. And then when the team possibly came for sale, I thought, okay. Maybe I could do something for Baltimore.
嗯,我在巴尔的摩长大,从小就一直是金莺队的球迷。在我小时候,棒球是主要的运动项目。所以我是一个真正的棒球迷。金莺队是我的队伍。当我上大学然后读法学院时,我疏远了它,而且在我的职业生涯的大部分时间里,我在华盛顿工作。但我一直密切关注着巴尔的摩的情况。当球队可能出售时,我想,好吧,也许我可以为巴尔的摩做点什么。
I had done a lot philanthropically in the Washington area and in other and in schools outside of of Baltimore and Washington, but I hadn't done that much for Baltimore. I was on the Hopkins board, but I really I had given some money to Hopkins, but I really hadn't done that much compared to Mike Bloomberg who's given $8,000,000,000 or so to to Johns Hopkins and done more from Baltimore than probably anybody. But I thought if I bought the team, reenergized the team, and made it better and would reenergize downtown Baltimore, which Baltimore could use.
我在华盛顿地区以及巴尔的摩和华盛顿以外的学校做了很多慈善活动,但我为巴尔的摩做的并不多。我是霍普金斯大学的董事会成员,确实给霍普金斯捐了一些钱,但相比迈克尔·布隆伯格来说就少多了,他向约翰斯·霍普金斯大学捐赠了约80亿美元,并且为巴尔的摩做出的贡献可能比任何人都多。但我想如果我买下球队,重振球队并使其变得更好,就能重新激发巴尔的摩市中心的活力,因为巴尔的摩正需要这一点。
When I was growing up, Baltimore was the ninth biggest city in The United States. Population, 930,000. Now it's not even the top 20. There's enormous amount of flight out of Baltimore, and the corporate headquarters have fled as well. So Baltimore has some real problems, and I thought maybe if I could reenergize the Euros, I could reenergize downtown Baltimore, and we're working on it. It takes a while, though. Did you think that you would make a profit off of it eventually?
在我成长的过程中,巴尔的摩是美国第九大城市,人口93万。现在甚至排不进前20名。大量人口外流,企业总部也搬走了。所以巴尔的摩面临一些真正的问题,我想也许如果我能重振金莺队,就能重振巴尔的摩市中心,我们正在为此努力。但这需要一段时间。你有没有想过最终能从中获利?
So it's a it's a unique kind of investment in that owning a team maybe with the exception of a professional football team is not one that's bound to make you a lot of money in real time. People who buy baseball teams don't think they're gonna make a lot of operating profit. In fact, virtually no team makes real operating profit. But people do tend to make money when they sell the teams, but my intention was to make this more of a philanthropic thing.
这是一种独特的投资类型,因为拥有一支球队——除了职业橄榄球队之外——通常不会让你在短期内赚大钱。购买棒球队的人并不指望获得大量的运营利润。事实上,几乎没有球队能产生真正的运营利润。但当他们出售球队时,人们往往会赚钱,不过我的意图是将这更多地作为一种慈善行为。
So I would intended to, you know, die with the team, and then my kids will figure out what to do with it down the road, but I didn't intend to go sell it and make a profit or anything like that. How do you begin to value a professional sports team? I mean, you look at the the recent sales that we've seen here most recently out in Los Angeles, extraordinary sums of money. How how do you begin to piece that together, get a sense of what it's like?
所以我原本打算,你知道的,与团队共存亡,然后我的孩子们会在以后决定如何处理它,但我并没有打算把它卖掉并从中获利或做类似的事情。你如何开始评估一支职业运动队的价值?我是说,你看看最近我们在洛杉矶看到的交易,那是巨额的资金。你是如何开始将这些拼凑在一起,感受其价值的呢?
Up until recently, you would look at a multiple of revenue. You don't look at operating profit so much because teams aren't based on operating profit. They don't run the team to make operating profit the way private equity firms do. But you look at the the revenue and you put a multiple on the revenue. I think in the case where as you put a multiple of, like, six and a half times on on those, it's probably standard for a team a team of that size.
直到最近,你会看收入倍数。你不会太多关注营业利润,因为球队的价值并不基于营业利润。他们不像私募股权公司那样以获取营业利润为目标来运营球队。但你会看收入,并在收入上乘以一定的倍数。我认为在这种情况下,如果乘以6.5倍,对于这种规模的球队来说可能是标准的。
Today, people are paying prices that are hard to understand on an operating profit multiple basis. For example, as you allude to, in the the case of the Los Angeles Lakers, they were just sold for $12,500,000,000 after being sold the previous year for $10,000,000,000 and prior to that for maybe $6,000,000,000. We just saw the Boston Celtics being sold for 6,100,000,000. We saw the Seattle Seahawks being sold for 9,600,000,000.
如今,人们支付的价格在营业利润倍数基础上难以理解。例如,正如你所提到的,洛杉矶湖人队的案例,他们在前一年以100亿美元售出后,最近以125亿美元售出,而在此之前可能以60亿美元售出。我们刚刚看到波士顿凯尔特人队以61亿美元售出。我们看到西雅图海鹰队以96亿美元售出。
And I should point out Carlisle, my investment firm, is an investor in that at that price. So the prices are hard to believe. Think about this. When the Yankees were sold in 1972 to George Steinbrenner, the price was 8,800,000. And he only had about 250,000 to put in, so he syndicated the rest. And, you know, as one of his partners said, there's nothing so limited as being a limited partner with George Steinbrenner because he ran ran everything even though he only invested $250,000.
我应该指出,卡莱尔,我的投资公司,在那价格下是投资者。所以这些价格令人难以置信。想想这个。当扬基队在1972年卖给乔治·斯坦布伦纳时,价格是880万美元。而他只投入了大约25万美元,所以他组织了其余部分。而且,正如他的一个合伙人所说,没有什么比作为乔治·斯坦布伦纳的有限合伙人更受限的了,因为他即使只投资了25万美元,却掌控了一切。
In those days, in the twenties, the thirties, the forties, the fifties, the sixties, and seventies, the wealthiest people in The United States didn't obsess from buying teams. When you were having teams for sale and the Yankees for sale, the Rockefellers didn't show up. The the Morgans didn't show up. The wealthiest family said this was declass a. But now wealthy people have an obsession just like regular people with buying teams and getting the benefits of it.
在那个年代,二十年代、三十年代、四十年代、五十年代、六十年代和七十年代,美国最富有的人并不痴迷于购买球队。当有球队出售,比如扬基队出售时,洛克菲勒家族没有出现。摩根家族也没有出现。最富有的家庭认为这是低级的。但现在,富人像普通人一样痴迷于购买球队并获得其中的好处。
We just saw Jeff Bezos put $1,000,000,000 into buying a soccer team in in Liverpool, and he's not even the majority owner right now. So it's amazing what's happened. And it's happened because populations are bigger, television markets are bigger, TV contracts are bigger, and also the potential profits are bigger. And it's just a different thing. And plus you've got betting now, and more and more people are focused on it.
我们刚刚看到杰夫·贝佐斯投入10亿美元收购利物浦的一家足球俱乐部,而且他目前甚至还不是大股东。所以发生的一切令人惊叹。这一切之所以发生,是因为人口规模更大、电视市场更大、电视转播合同金额更高,而且潜在利润也更大。这完全是另一回事。此外,现在还有博彩业务,越来越多的人关注它。
And you have people from another country who are focused on your team sometimes. We have people from overseas who are obsessed with the Dodgers, the Japanese particularly. We have people in The United States who are obsessed with English premier soccer. It's a different world. How about the the price that teams are paying for players, the size of these contracts? If you look at a Shohoe Otani, for instance, is he worth $700,000,000 over however many many years?
有时还有来自其他国家的人专注于你的球队。我们有海外人士痴迷于道奇队,尤其是日本人。美国也有人对英格兰超级足球联赛痴迷不已。这是一个不同的世界。那么球队为球员支付的薪水以及这些合同的规模如何呢?以大谷翔平为例,他在多年里值7亿美元吗?
I mean, how how do you begin to assess whether or not it's worth ponying up as much as owners have to pony up for these players? You you put up some substantial money as well as this way. When people wanna buy a house, what's the right price? The price is that whatever it takes to get the house. So if you took that $607,165,000,000 to get the Juan So to, I guess, that was the right price. In the end, we'll from time, we'll tell whether it was a good price or not.
我的意思是,你该如何开始评估是否值得像老板们那样为这些球员支付巨额费用?你也投入了相当可观的资金。当人们想买房子时,正确的价格是多少?价格就是 whatever it takes to get the house(为了得到房子所付出的任何代价)。所以,如果为了得到胡安·索托支付了6.07165亿美元,那在当时看来就是正确的价格。最终,随着时间的推移,我们会判断这是否是一个好价格。
But when Ohtani was got a contract of 701 or $702,000,000, people thought that was crazy. It turns out that he's really worth it. Uh-huh. You buy the team, lead this ownership, buys the buys the team, and you go to spring training, you go to many games. What's your takeaway from sort of the degree to which you can change aspects of the way the team is run versus how much you're a steward of this this organization? In a private equity world, you can make CEO changes repeatedly.
但当大谷翔平签下7.01亿或7.02亿美元的合同时,人们认为那是疯狂的。事实证明他真的值这个价。嗯哼。你买下球队,领导这次收购,买下这支球队,然后去春训,去看很多比赛。关于你能多大程度改变球队的运营方式, versus 你作为该组织管理者的角色,你有什么心得?在私募股权的世界里,你可以反复更换首席执行官。
You can do many other things to change the the tenor of the company, and sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But, usually, you can make a difference. In baseball and other sports, it's harder because for one thing, the owners are not the real experts on who's the best player to draft, who's the player player to trade for. Secondly, you have more competition. In in 1960, the entire NHL was six teams. The entire NBA in 1960 was eight teams.
你可以做许多其他事情来改变公司的基调,有时奏效,有时不奏效。但通常,你能带来不同。在棒球和其他体育项目中更难,因为一方面,所有者并不是谁是最佳选秀球员、谁是交易目标的最佳专家。其次,竞争更激烈。在1960年,整个国家冰球联盟只有六支球队。1960年的整个NBA也只有八支球队。
Wow. Today, each of the major leagues either has 30 or 32 teams. So you have much more competition. It's very tough to have 29 competitors in baseball and try to beat 29 other teams. Whereas, let's say, a private equity world, if you have a competitor, you might have two or three competitors in your industry or maybe four or five, but you don't usually have 29 competitors. So it's much more The book is based on your interviews with other team owners and it makes me wonder just sort of about this kind of team of cognizenti.
哇。如今,各大职业联赛要么拥有30支球队,要么拥有32支球队。因此竞争要激烈得多。在棒球界,你要面对29个竞争对手,并试图击败其他29支球队,这非常艰难。相比之下,比如在私募股权领域,如果你有一个竞争对手,你的行业里可能只有两三个竞争对手,或者四五个,但通常不会有29个竞争对手。所以竞争程度大不相同。这本书基于你对其他球队老板的采访,这让我不禁思考这类“知情者团队”的情况。
Those who are like you owning a team and and what do you get from from them? To to buy this team, you had to get the approval of this group of of owners. What have you learned from other owners broadly about their approach to I I learned from interviewing them. The book has has my story about why I bought it, but then the other the story of other owners why they bought their teams. And when I was looking to learn about ownership, I didn't find a lot of books about it.
那些像你一样拥有球队的人,你能从他们那里得到什么?为了购买这支球队,你必须获得这群老板的批准。你从其他老板那里广泛了解到关于他们经营方法的哪些经验?我是通过采访他们学到的。书中讲述了我为什么购买球队的我的故事,以及其他老板为什么购买他们球队的故事。当我想了解球队所有权时,我发现关于这方面的书籍并不多。
So I ultimately put in the back of m
所以我最终把……放在后面
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