俄乌冲突转入经济战：乌打击俄能源设施致产量下降

Joining us now is New York Times Kyiv bureau chief, Andrew Kramer. Andrew, great to have you with us once again and, wanna get into this and and all matters. But let's just start with, what we've seen here over the last twenty four hours, a couple of attacks, on energy facilities, in in Ukraine. Get us up to speed sort of on where things stand here on this Saturday morning in in New York. Sure. Thank you very much for having me on.

The I'm here in Kyiv, and I've heard a number of explosions already this morning. The, drone and missile, barrages, which is are now is now a two way street. It's going both ways, have continued. And and, we're we're seeing it, through the weekend, and we saw it last week as well. What was your take watching all the machinations and meetings here at the UN? There there was a lot going on, and and this comes amid some inconsistent messaging from the White House kind of pressing them to have a meeting.

You also had this messaging from president Trump, because of the gas prices we were just talking about, because of the midterm elections coming up and what pressure point that's putting on his party, basically asking Zelensky or saying out loud he would like them to stop targeting Russian oil production facilities. I'm wondering how that was received in Kyiv and how the trip overall to Unga and all those meetings is being perceived in Ukraine.

Yeah. Thank you. This is this is definitely relative to what, yeah, you were discussing earlier about gasoline and diesel prices in The US, but but not the primary cause of of high diesel prices. Most experts have have assessed that the disruptions to logistics in The Middle East are are are the primary reason for for rising diesel prices, but it is a testament to the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes that that that hitting oil ports, oil infrastructure, and refineries have have definitely put a put a dent into Russia's ability to export energy.

And and just a clarification on the meetings, I if I understand Ukraine's position correctly, Zelensky has expressed willingness to meet with Putin. The response from Russia was that the meeting would have to take place in Moscow. Zelensky has offered Kyiv and and and anywhere else in the world, but not Moscow. So that's where that stands on a potential leader meeting. Sounds like The UAE being floated as a as a potential venue for that as well.

Wanna ask you about your most recent piece for the times, and that really centers on this transition that we've seen here in recent months from a war being waged on the battlefield to one that's being waged economically. And Christine, just a moment ago mentioning the attacks that we've seen on energy facilities, yes, in Russia, but in in Ukraine as well. Talk a bit if you could, Andrew, just about the motivating factors for that that the impact of this conflict, this continued conflict is having on the economies of of both of these nations, Russia and Ukraine.

Sure. Thank you very much. And it's not just Russia and Ukraine. Unfortunately, the just if we look at agricultural products, for example, both Russia and particularly Ukraine are major exporters of of grain and and oil seeds and and other agricultural products. 35% of all the world's grain is exported on the Black Sea, and now Black Sea commerce is is is essentially frozen to both Russia and Ukraine because of attacks on on ships.

Both countries have the ability to halt shipping to each other's ports, and and that is now being done. This is with various new weapons, including drone boats and, and drone, aerial drones. The shift to the economy comes. We're now in the fifth year of this war, more than four and a half years in, and and the battlefield is essentially frozen. Russia has lost about half of the territory that it captured in the initial invasion, but then recaptured in the subsequent three years of the war about 11% of Ukrainian territory, 1.5% of Ukrainian territory.

But it's essentially a frozen frozen conflict, and, the latest, efforts seem to be more focused on the economy. Russia's has hit, a lot of Ukraine's economy since the first days of the war, economic assets such as oil storage tanks and refineries and and and other other assets. But now this really is the focus. And it's also the focus going the other way with with Ukraine's home homemade drone arsenal, which was developed during the war.

So now quite effective at hitting oil refineries. So each is aiming for the the weak point in each other's economies. For Russia, it's it's it's really a in a petroleum dependent economy earning about a billion dollars a day in natural gas and oil exports. And so hitting that is is effective for the for the Ukraine side. On on the other hand, Ukraine's economy is is dependent on on a number of exports. A major, grain, largest sunflower oil, exporter in the world.

So, agriculture products, but also consumer spending has been a major issue a major, a major driver of Ukraine's wartime economy because of foreign aid coming in and this trickling down to to military salaries and then and then also other other types of salaries and and spending. So hitting warehouses, locomotives for the exports, and disrupting sales by keeping air alarms on. So we've had air alarms in effect almost continually for the past three or four weeks.

Wow. A very very focused on the economy. It's a war of attrition and the economies are are the targets. You're taking the words right out of my mouth. That was gonna be my next question is if you're looking at not only a war of attrition, but an asymmetric war of attrition, we talk a lot about the military elements of that, but now it seems like there's also this financial element to it as well. And Zelensky talked about trying to hit Russia's finances specifically when he here he was here at the UN.

We're in place and sound. Our target is Russia's ability to finance this war, to drag it out, to make it more brutal and more destructive. Russia's finances and Russia's production are what must be stopped if Putin is to be stopped. Is that a realistic goal? There have been some surprises in how Russia's economy has been despite the sanctions, despite things like being kicked off the Swiss system. Russia's economy for the most part has kept chugging.

Now we're seeing maybe some some elements of it being hit with these strikes on the oil and gas facility. What can Ukraine do, and do they have the capacity to make a difference to the Russian economy before their own starts to falter? Well, it's, you know, time will tell what what the what the threshold is for for Russia. It's it's it's an open question. But the strikes, you you you typically have to fire about 10 exploding drones to get one through.

So in order to have an impact, you have to have a large volume of exploding drones that you can send into Russia. And, you know, in in the in the order of hundreds every day in order to to start whittling away at the oil industry, the oil and gas industry. But the Ukrainians do claim that they've hit enough, that that, Russia is actually shutting in wells in Siberia, which is an important issue for the, Russia's taxation is based on the mineral extraction tax and the primary, benefit for the central government.

So less oil coming out of the ground and less money the central government has. It's a difficult task to to plug all of these different export routes for Russian oil. So it's sort of a web of of of pipelines. But by hitting refineries, by hitting ports, and by blowing up ships, you know, more than a 100 ships, I think, over in August were blown up. And the Novorossiysko, Tuapse, and and a number of other important oil ports in Black Sea were were now essentially out of out of, you know, out of operation.

Tuapse, I think, is out of operation or or close to it. You can shut in oil production. So maybe a million barrels, maybe more shut in on the Black Sea, similar amount on on the Baltic Sea by hitting Usluga, o