Fly.io联合创始人Kurt打造AI原生手机,重构操作系统定义
What even is an OS now?
Fly.io联合创始人亲自下场做AI原生硬件,挑战现有OS范式,这种从底层重构交互逻辑的尝试值得开发者关注其技术路线。
Crazy as it sounds to say this, since it’s all anybody’s been able to talk about for over a year, but the impact of AI on computing hasn’t yet sunk in.
说这话听起来很疯狂,因为过去一年多里大家一直在谈论它,但AI对计算的影响尚未深入人心。
Today I’m parting company with Fly.io to work with Kurt on a new project. I’m getting that out of the way so you all know up front I’m talking my book.
今天我将离开Fly.io,与Kurt合作开展一个新项目。我先说明这一点,以便你们知道我在为自己的书做宣传。
When I was a little kid, a family friend sold us our first “computer” — scare quotes because I’m pretty sure it was a VTech Laser 200 clone, a chiclet keyboard Z80 that ran off cassette tapes and plugged into our TV. I was old enough to know what a computer was, and conceptually what it meant to program one, because I remember dreaming of all the dumb games I could make. Finally! We had a device that would allow me to make things like the “Hitchhiker’s Guide” text adventure I’d play at my dad’s office.
小时候,一位家庭朋友卖给了我们我们的第一台“电脑”——加引号是因为我相当确定那是一台VTech Laser 200的克隆机,一款使用口香糖式键盘、通过磁带运行并连接到我们电视的Z80计算机。那时我已经足够大,知道什么是计算机,也概念上明白编程意味着什么,因为我记得曾梦想过能制作出各种愚蠢的游戏。终于!我们拥有了一台设备,让我能够制作像我在父亲办公室玩的《银河系漫游指南》那样的文字冒险游戏。
But it booted straight into BASIC. That’s all it did. I was, like, 8 years old. I wasn’t about to learn BASIC. What I learned instead: computers were not as awesome as I’d imagined.
但它一启动就进入BASIC环境。这就是它的全部功能。我当时大概8岁。我才不想学BASIC呢。而我真正学到的教训是:计算机并不像我想象的那样厉害。
By my mid-teens, computer security finally dragged me into programming. Coding only reinforced that crummy lesson. The more I understood how programs were constructed, the more forbidding it sounded to build an entire complicated application. I could belt out fast network servers no problem, but a word processor? You might as well have asked me to build a diesel locomotive.
到了十几岁时,计算机安全最终把我拉进了编程的世界。编码反而强化了那个糟糕的教训。我对程序构建方式的理解越深,构建整个复杂应用程序的想法就越显得令人望而生畏。我可以轻松写出快速的网络服务器,但要写一个文字处理器?这简直就像让我造一台柴油机车一样难。
Suddenly, everything has changed. Computers now work the way I thought they did when I was 8.
突然间,一切都变了。计算机现在运作的方式,正是我8岁时以为它们会有的样子。
I’ve been writing these past several months about all the native macOS apps I’ve been churning out, and how weird it is to watch AI dissolve the boundaries between backend programming and frontend, between web and native, systems and applications. All huge stories; any one of them would land in my career top 10 big shifts.
过去几个月我一直在写关于我不断推出的原生macOS应用的文章,以及看着AI消融后端编程与前端、Web与原生、系统与应用程序之间的界限是多么奇怪。这些都是巨大的变革;其中任何一个都足以成为我职业生涯中十大重大转变之一。
But AI is knocking down a much more important boundary: the one between programmers and users. My Mac menu bar and task switcher are cluttered with icons for programs I conjured for myself, with English as my programming language.
但AI正在推倒一个更重要的边界:程序员与用户之间的边界。我的Mac菜单栏和任务切换器中塞满了我为自己用英语作为编程语言所创造的程序图标。
What I did on my computer, any power user can do on theirs.
我在电脑上能做的事,任何高级用户都能在他们的电脑上做到。
Will do on theirs.
他们都会做到的。
It’s fucking inevitable.
这是该死的必然趋势。
❦
That’s a statement about the reality; a “prediction”, if you want a concession to your skepticism about AI, but only in the sense that I can predict that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. So what do you do with that?
这是对现实的陈述;如果你想要对我对AI的怀疑做出让步,可以称之为一种“预测”,但这只是类似于我能预测明天太阳会从东方升起的那种意义上的预测。那么,面对这种情况你该怎么办呢?
I think we’re all so bumfuzzled by the first-order impacts of AI that we haven’t considered the second-order effects.
我认为我们都因AI的一阶影响而感到困惑不已,以至于没有考虑到二阶效应。
Consider: what does computing look like in a world where many (maybe most) applications have an audience of just 1-2 people? How is software distributed? What does it run on?
试想一下:在一个许多(或许大多数)应用仅面向1-2名用户的世界中,计算会呈现何种形态?软件如何分发?它们运行在什么之上?
When I was younger, I learned that programs were normally something you bought off the shelves at Egghead Software. Then I watched the shelves at Egghead become obsolete. Then boxed software altogether. Then software shipped on CD-ROMs — you know that’s why we call it “shipping”, right? we used to have to arrange shipping! — wiped away by the Internet. Now I think I’m about to see something else start to wash away: the entire concept of prefabricated fixed-function applications.
年轻时,我了解到程序通常是你在Egghead Software货架上购买的东西。然后我看着Egghead的货架变得过时。接着是盒装软件整体消失。然后是随CD-ROM分发的软件——你知道这就是为什么我们称之为“shipping”(发货/发行),对吧?我们过去真的需要安排运输!——随后被互联网抹去。现在我认为我即将看到另一件事开始消退:预制固定功能应用的整体概念。
Here’s what’s about to happen: users will increasingly interact with stuff they themselves conjured into being. Them, or people they’re on a first-name basis with. Programs will solve their problems specifically:
即将发生的是:用户将越来越多地与自己亲手创造的事物进行交互。或是与他们直呼其名的人所创造的事物。程序将专门解决他们的问题:
- How can I get an accurate weather forecast for Roscoe Village in Chicago when the nearest weather stations are attached to O’Hare and miss the lake effect?
- Forget the map, just tell me if I should get off the Eisenhower Expressway and take Roosevelt, Madison, or Lake back home?
- Is there a meeting happening anywhere right this minute that I’m supposed to be in?
- 当最近的气象站都附属于奥黑尔机场且无法捕捉湖效应时,我该如何获得芝加哥罗斯科村(Roscoe Village)的准确天气预报?
- 忘掉地图吧,直接告诉我,我是该从艾森豪威尔快速路(Eisenhower Expressway)下来,走罗斯福大道、麦迪逊大道还是湖街回家?
- 此刻是否有任何会议正在进行,而我本该参加?
You can go on and on like this. These all sound trivial. That’s the point. They’re normal-life problems nobody would have built serious programs around, because the audience sounds too small.
你可以继续这样列举下去。这些听起来都很琐碎。这正是关键点。它们是日常生活中无人会为构建严肃程序而投入的问题,因为受众听起来太小了。
Today, almost all software comes from expert strangers. But soon, strangers will stop supplying our apps, and instead ship just their building blocks. Sure, there will still be megaproject browsers and word processors. But there’ll be thousands of times more applications that pull in 1/7th of the guts of a word processor to solve some idiosyncratic work or home life problem for somebody who doesn’t know what a for-loop is.
如今,几乎所有软件都来自陌生的专家。但很快,陌生人将不再提供我们的应用程序,而是只交付他们的构建模块。当然,仍会有大型项目的浏览器和文字处理器。但会有成千上万倍更多的应用程序,它们仅调用文字处理器的1/7核心功能,为某个连for循环是什么都不知道的人解决一些独特的办公或家庭生活问题。
You can disagree with me about all of this, but if you understand where I’m coming from, it’s all just straightforwardly obvious how weird this is going to make everything.
你可以不同意我的所有观点,但如果你理解我的出发点,这一切都显而易见地表明,这将使一切变得多么怪异。
Why do we have modern operating systems? It’s not simply to “provide access to hardware resources”; plenty of embedded systems do that with runtimes that have no business calling themselves an “OS”. No, the core purpose of a modern operating system is to partition different applications off from each other, and carefully control how they can communicate.
为什么我们需要现代操作系统?这不仅仅是为了“提供对硬件资源的访问”;许多嵌入式系统通过那些根本不配自称“OS”的运行时就做到了这一点。不,现代操作系统的核心目的是将不同的应用程序彼此隔离,并仔细控制它们的通信方式。
That makes a lot of sense in a world where we’re importing all our software from strangers. It makes less sense in the world we’re heading to, where most of the software we’re carving up fiefdoms for has the same provenance. And it makes almost no sense in a world where every application is malleable, subject to growing new limbs at any moment on the whims of its creator.
在一个我们所有软件都从陌生人那里导入的世界里,这很有道理。但在我们将要进入的世界里,这种说法就少了几分合理性——在那里,我们大多是在为具有相同来源的软件划分领地。而在一个每款应用都可塑、随时可能在其创造者一时兴起时长出新功能的世界裡,这种说法几乎毫无意义。
❦
That’s what we’re working on: a platform that is the device we would want to have in the world I just described. So: we’re building a phone.
这正是我们正在努力的方向:打造一个平台,它正是我刚才描述的那个世界中我们希望拥有的设备。所以:我们正在打造一款手机。
Every mainstream phone on the market in 2026 was planned (torturously, to death) in 2023. That’s how product cycles work. In 2023, computers were still devices designed to run deterministic fixed-function applications produced by a priesthood of professional programmers. And software was something users bought, not built.
2026年市场上每一款主流手机,都是在2023年经过(痛苦至极)的规划确定的。这就是产品周期的运作方式。在2023年,计算机仍然是旨在运行由专业程序员这一“祭司阶层”所生产的确定性固定功能应用的设备。而软件是用户购买的东西,而非自己构建的。
The soul of those phones is stuck in the 1970s. Dudes with big mustaches nailed down the design while hacking on VT52 terminals with Boston’s “More Than A Feeling” blaring on the FM radio perched on their workbenches. Since then, all we’ve done is scale and miniaturize that design so it fits in your pocket. It’s beautifully machined and sports a zillion pixels and does the same job as a DEC PDP-11: running prefab applications.
那些手机的灵魂仍停留在20世纪70年代。留着大胡子的家伙们在波士顿电台FM频道播放着《More Than A Feeling》的背景下,在VT52终端上敲代码时,奠定了这种设计的基础。从那以后,我们所做的只是将这种设计进行规模化和微型化,使其能装进口袋。它拥有精密加工的机身和数十亿像素,但干的工作与DEC PDP-11一样:运行预制的应用程序。
We’re building a phone that isn’t designed to run fixed-function applications. I doubt anyone will ever get up on a stage and show off a AAA mobile game (that nobody plays) on it. It’s not for TikTok and short-form video, though I guess you can ask it for that. You can ask it for whatever: it’ll build apps for you, on the phone, whenever you want.
我们正在打造的手机并非专为运行固定功能应用而设计。我怀疑将来也不会有人站上舞台,用它来炫耀一款AAA级手游(尽管没人玩)。它不是为TikTok和短视频设计的,不过我想你可以让它做这些。你可以让它做任何事:它会为你在手机上当场构建应用,无论何时你想用。
I know what you’re probably thinking about all this. That’s OK: that means you’re a reasonable person. We’re betting that AI is about to do unreasonable things.
我知道你们此刻大概在想什么。没关系:这说明你是个通情达理的人。我们押注的是,AI即将做出不合常理之事。
There’s a long history of grand statements about the world attached to “and here’s my new company” buttons. It never goes well. I’m aware that no matter what I write here, I’m going to sound like yet another startup nerd talking about “the future of programming” before announcing that I’ve joined, like, Sri Lanka’s answer to Uber or something.
在“这是我的新公司”这类按钮背后,往往伴随着关于世界的宏大宣言。但这些宣言通常都不怎么顺利。我清楚,无论我在这里写什么,听起来都像又一个初创公司的极客在宣布加入某个类似“斯里兰卡版Uber”的项目之前,先谈论一番“编程的未来”。
I have a lot to say that I’m not saying now. Not because it’s secret, but to get the “new startup announcement” stink off the technical details.
我有许多话想说,但现在选择不说。不是因为这是秘密,而是为了不让“新初创公司发布”的俗套气味干扰技术细节。
The last year in the technology industry has felt like 100 years all happening at once. Our industry is destabilized in a way nobody’s experienced since the advent of the personal computer. Every limit AI runs up against collapses within a month. Everything we do with frontier models today, in a few years we’ll be doing instantaneously and for free.
过去这一年,科技行业的感觉就像是一百年的事情同时发生。我们的行业以一种自个人电脑问世以来无人经历过的状态失去了稳定。AI 遇到的每一个瓶颈都在一个月内土崩瓦解。如今我们用前沿模型所做的一切,在几年内将变得即时且免费。
When we were kids, we thought computers could do anything, if we could just get our hands on them. We had to become professional software developers to learn how much computers suck.
当我们还是孩子时,我们认为只要我们能接触到计算机,它们就能做任何事。我们必须成为专业的软件开发人员,才能了解到计算机有多糟糕。
Now we all have to unlearn that stuff, and think like kids again. So, here we go.
现在,我们都必须摒弃那些旧观念,重新像孩子一样思考。所以,我们开始吧。
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力