跳到主内容
@wquguru
精选76Bloomberg Podcasts(YouTube)宏观多源精选 ×9

特朗普与习近平峰会结束,聚焦大豆采购与稀土博弈

Bloomberg Businessweek Daily: Trump-Xi Summit Wraps (Podcast)

原文
发到 X
推荐理由

中美高层互动直接关联大宗商品(大豆、稀土)贸易流向及宏观地缘风险溢价,为交易员提供关键的宏观因子观察窗口。

This is Bloomberg Businessweek daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business, finance and tech news. As it happens. The Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanback. We're all focused on geopolitics, specifically this first part when it comes to the relationship between the US and China.

President Trump said he would meet again with Chinese leader XI Jinping in November, following what he said was a successful summit in Washington. Watching all of this closely, I don't think she was at the state dinner last night. Maybe she will be there. Maybe. Jenny Welch, Bloomberg Economics chief geo economics analyst she joins us from our Washington, D.C. bureau. Jenny. Were you there? I didn't I didn't see you in the pictures with Jensen or Elon.

No, sea bass isn't really my thing, but that was on the boat, so. Okay, that is so interesting. I'm glad you went there. I think we're like, the last thing I read before I went to bed last night was the menu. I just like, yeah, I love this stuff. And a lot of thought goes into this. And they wanted to highlight cuisine from the United States, but give what they said was a, um, nod. Yeah, like a nod to China. With the way that the food was presented.

You went seabass was the main course. There was a lot of other stuff in this three course meal. How do we read into that part of the dinner? I won't proclaim to be an expert on the culinary decisions. I do think they had hot scallion oil that they kind of embedded into some of the meals as a way of paying tribute to Chinese cuisine. Um, I did live in the area of China that XI Jinping is from, and I can tell you that food there is delicious, but it didn't seem to be fully reflected in the menu that they had.

It's a level of spice that I'm not sure is comfortable for President Trump, but all optics around the dinner in the broader summit are rather positive. I think the question is, uh, to bring it back to the culinary theme. Is was the beef really there? What was the substance? I love it you're so excited that were happening. Substance, right? Like a lot of pomp and circumstance, but was there a lot of substance that came out of this and or is it Jenny, just that these two leaders are talking is important?

That certainly I think how the white House and in particular, President Trump would frame it. Right. He sees his role in this relationship as being the stabilizer, is having a good relationship with President XI despite the rivalry and using that to provide kind of a ballast for the competition. But what I would say is someone who has staff these kind of summits before is yes, it's true, and it is difficult to get many deliverables out of a relationship between countries that don't get along in many ways.

But this is a state visit that's a different caliber of summit. In the last time that President XI Jinping made a state visit, which was during the Obama administration. So over a decade ago, there were a number of concrete deliverables. Granted, not all of them came to fruition, but state visits are usually used to extract deliverables. Um, and in particular, when the U.S. is hosting the deliverables that matter to the U.S. national interests.

Like something regarding soybeans, the president said. He says, I think our farmers will be very happy. And the only thing I can think of is the soybean purchases. Is that going to happen? Possibly soybeans. He could also be referencing that the Board of Trade that was established previously between the U.S. and China has been discussing bringing down tariffs on a select number of what is considered non sensitive goods that might include U.S. agricultural products as well as LNG.

The I think are looking to announce something on that early next week. But yes, you point to a really good question, which is what is the status of Chinese purchase agreements? The fact that we haven't gotten any written affirmation from either side on China falling through, some of which that only the United States has confirmed Beijing is signed up for in May. We don't even have necessarily confirmation from Beijing that they are planning on doing these additional agricultural purchases that Washington said they would.

So there's a lot of ambiguity there. Granted, the US hasn't put out its readout yet, so maybe some of these details are still forthcoming. The Chinese put their eyes out last night. There wasn't a huge amount of detail there, and certainly nothing about these purchase agreements. Hey, you know, two things that I think about, Jenny that could kind of bring the U.S. two to our knees to some extent. And I think about this in a world where we realized Iran had a great tool with the Strait of Hormuz when it comes to energy world global energy supplies.

Um, but I'm thinking specifically about rare earths, our access to it, and also kind of this eye race where many would argue we need collaboration. It's something these two areas we're going to dig into both of them in just a moment over the next, uh, half hour or so. Um, what do we get, if anything, on those fronts? So no details yet on what, if anything, was discussed on Critical Minerals. But as you mentioned, that's definitely hanging over the summit.

In fact, that's probably the reason that the tree truss that the extension that was announced when XI Jinping first arrived on Wednesday night was only extended by two months. It's probably because Washington in particular feels that Beijing isn't living up to its side of it, and critical minerals is the most important thing there. It's really cast a shadow over U.S. policy towards China. It's a huge point of leverage on, I guess, not clear what they discussed.

The Chinese readout indicated that they did share some views on air safety, but we've heard from both leaders a real reluctance to consider slowing down their their leading AI companies. Given the rivalry and given the potential gains from I. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek daily. Coming up after this. We have seen oil dip lower, um, that as a result of these talks between the U.S. and Iran and hopes to reopen the world's most important energy shipping route.

We're progressing. I mean, Tim, this is something that's been just driving so much of the trade this week across assets. Yeah I mean look at the relationship between yields and oil prices. We highlighted that, uh, just yesterday I want to bring in Makayla Krishnan, partner at the McKinsey Global Institute. Meckler joins us from Boston. The U.S. war with Iran exposed a lot for a lot of people, I think. I mean, there were some folks who were I never forget this.

Like the first week, it was like, wait, this is the worst case scenario that we were supposed to pencil a pencil out when we were at job interviews, like, what happens if the Strait of Hormuz closes or traffic is impeded in some way? How are we sill still such a world that is so dependent on fossil fuels? Thanks, Tim. Great to be here with all of you. Um, I think the important thing to remember about the world and the energy system as it exists today is it's a massive physical entity that has been optimized over centuries to give us the production and consumption of energy that we have.

Uh, if you think about oil and gas pipelines, for example, they extend the distance from the Earth to the moon and back twice. We have 1.5 billion vehicles on the road that are primarily internal combustion engine based. We produce 7 billion tons of industrial materials like steel and cement, all with fossil fuels today. So it's important to recognize that transforming the system is hard. It takes time. I think it's also important to recognize that the energy system to this Strait of Hormuz crisis has been much more resilient, at least so far than had been anticipated at the very beginning.

Of course, with rea

原文超出正文长度上限,此处截断——上游还有内容,完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。

更进一步:量化金融体系

看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力

进入量化体系 →