美伊探索霍尔木兹海峡分阶段协议，特朗普与习近平会晤缺乏实质内容

NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS "THE PULSE" WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME. IT'S BEEN A WEEK OF DEBTS AND DIPLOMACY, THE GLOBAL BOND CELL OF HAS STABILIZE, OFFERING INVESTORS SUMMER LEAVE AFTER A BRUISING STRETCH FOR DEBT MARKETS. TO DISCUSS THIS AND MORE WE WILL BE JOINED BY OUR GUEST FROM UBS. THE GLOBAL EVENT IN WASHINGTON, PRESIDENT TRUMP AND XI HAVE BEEN MEETING. LET'S BEGIN IN THE MIDDLE EAST, U.S.

AND IRANIAN NEGOTIATORS SAID TO BE EXPLORING A PHASED DEAL THAT WOULD SEE TEHRAN OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IRAN SAYS THEY'VE SUBMITTED A NEW PROPOSAL TO WASHINGTON. STEWART, IT'S GREAT TO SPEAK TO YOU. UNTIL 24 HOURS AGO, IT WAS UNCLEAR HOW THE TWO SIDES WOULD COME TO AN AGREEMENT -- WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THIS PHASED DEAL TO OPEN HORMUZ? STUART: WE DON'T KNOW THE DETAILS YET BUT IT LOOKS ON THE FACE OF IT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN PREVIOUS ITERATIONS, NOTABLY THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING FROM A FEW MONTHS AGO WHICH COLLAPSED RATHER FAST, WHICH ISN'T TO SAY THE MARKETS SHOULDN'T HAVE A DEGREE OF OPTIMISM THAT THEY ARE TALKING TO EACH OTHER VIA INTER-MEDIATORS.

HOSTILITIES HAVE CONTINUED AT A LOWER LEVEL, SHIPPING IS CONTINUING TO BE ATTACKED AND HOUTHIS FIRING ON SAUDI TERRITORY. IF YOU LOOK AT THE OIL MARKET, THAT SIGNALS A DEGREE OF CAUTION ABOUT BEING TOO OPTIMISTIC THAT THIS WILL GO FURTHER FORWARD AND IF YOU LOOK AT PREDICTION MARKETS, A SICKLY HASN'T BUDGED OVERNIGHT -- BASICALLY HASN'T BUDGED OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE WAR STARTED. ALL THAT COMBINED MEANS WE WILL WATCH AND WAIT, NOTHING CONCRETE YET BUT THE MOOD MUSIC IS PERHAPS SLOWLY CHANGING TOWARD SOMETHING THAT MY RESUME BELOW DEAL.

FRANCINE: AT THE SAME TIME, THE HOUTHIS ARE STEPPING UP ATTACKS ON SAUDI, HOW COULD THIS COMPLICATE THINGS FOR THE STRAIT ? STUART: A HUGE COMPLICATION, A BIG IMPACT ON ENERGY MARKETS AND WE SAW THAT WITH THE CLOSURE OF THE EAST-WEST PIPELINE WHICH THEY ARE SLOWLY TRYING TO RAMP UP IN TERMS OF PRESSURE AND GET EXPORTS OUT THROUGH THE REST -- THE RED SEA. MORE PORTLY IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH ATTENTION THE HOUTHIS PAY TO IRAN.

IT'S GENERALLY THOUGHT THEY ARE PERHAPS ONE OF THE MORE INDEPENDENTLY MY DID PROXY GROUPS OUT THERE AND CAN IRAN REIN THE HOUTHIS IN. YES THIS IS PART OF THE WIDER REGIONAL WAR BUT THERE ARE SPECIFIC CONCERNS THAT MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDRESSED SEPARATELY. THIS IS ANOTHER ONE THAT WILL UNFOLD OVER SEVERAL WEEKS AND IT'S NOT CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH HEADWIND IS BEING MADE AND IF THE HOUTHIS CAN BE BROUGHT ON BOARD WITH A BROADER PIECE.

FRANCINE: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. THIS WEEK'S SUMMIT BETWEEN THE U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND HIS CHINESE COUNTERPART YOU JINPING HAVE BEEN HIGHLY ANTICIPATED, THEY WERE EXPECTED TO DISCUSS EVERYTHING FROM TRADE TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. THE MEETING WAS FILLED WITH POMP AND CEREMONY BUT THERE'S BEEN LITTLE SUBSTANCE. WITH US NOW IS BRENDAN WHO LEADS OUR TRADE COVERAGE. I WAS SURPRISED BY THE OLD EAGLE THAT WAS GIFTED TO PRESIDENT XI.

WAS THIS EXPECTED -- THERE'S NOT A COMMUNIQUÉ THAT WE AGREE ON 1, 2, 3. BRENDAN: PROBABLY THERE WAS HIS DECISION -- A DECISION EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WE HAVE TOO MUCH WE STILL NEED TO IRON OUT TO HAVE TRADE BE A CENTERPIECE OF THE STATE DINNER. THERE WAS A LOT OF PATTERN T -- PAGEANTRY. YOU MENTIONED THE BALD EAGLE, AND A PANDA. WHAT WAS MISSING WAS THE HAWKS. PETER NAVARRO WAS NOT ON THE LIST, A LOT OF TECH TITANS WERE.

THE TWO MONTH EXTENSION WILL COME FAST AND THE NEGOTIATORS WILL HAVE TO WORK HARD. THE TWO LEADERS WILL MEET A COUPLE MORE TIMES BETWEEN NOW AND JANUARY 10, THE NEW DEADLINE, BUT IT SOUNDS LIKE THE U.S. AND DINA HAVE ENTERED A NEW PHASE -- AND CHINA HAVE ENTERED A NEW PHASE IN THE RELATIONSHIP, CHINA WON'T BE BADGERED ABOUT THEIR CURRENCY OR THEIR ECONOMIC MODEL AND THE U.S. HAS TO ADJUST THEIR APPROACH. FRANCINE: I BELIEVE THESE THINGS MATTER, MEETING FACE-TO-FACE AND HAVING A WARM CONVERSATION EVEN IF MAYBE TALK OUTSIDE MATTERS, DO THEY LOSE THE NEEDLE -- DO THEY MOVE THE NEEDLE?

BRENDAN: I THINK THE GOAL IS TO HAVE THINGS BE STABLE. WE HEARD PRESIDENT XI TALK ABOUT COOPERATION AND NOT CONFRONTATION AND SEEING THE U.S. AND CHINA ON A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD WHEN IT COMES TO THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP. STABILITY SEEMS TO BE THE BUZZWORD COMING OUT THE PAST FEW DAYS OF TALKS BETWEEN OFFICIALS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT'S WHAT WE WILL GET. THERE IS THE 301 INVESTIGATION INTO EXCESS CAPACITY. JAMIESON GREER TALKED ABOUT THAT THIS WEEK AND THEY STILL HAVEN'T RELEASED THAT REPORT YET AND IT COULD PAVE THE WAY FOR A NEW TERROR THREAT AGAINST CHINA.

THE U.S. WANTS TO BRING LEVERAGE. WE WILL SEE THE CHINESE DELEGATION LEAVE TOWN AND PERHAPS THE U.S. TRIES TO TOUGHEN ITS STANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE NEXT TWO MONTHS OF NEGOTIATIONS. FRANCINE: WHERE ARE WE ON TECH? THERE WERE QUITE A LOT OF U.S. TECH EXECUTIVES AT THAT DINNER. BRENDAN: IT WAS NOTED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP AND PRESIDENT XI THAT AI IS AN IMPORTANT AREA WHERE THE TWO COUNTRIES WILL HAVE TO COMMUNICATE. YOU HAVE THE RACE BETWEEN THE U.S.

AND CHINA, THE AI FRONTIER IS THE MAIN STORYLINE. ALL OF THESE TECH CEOS ARE ALSO BUILDING FACTORIES AND DATA CENTERS AND THEY NEED THE EQUIPMENT FROM CHINA AND OTHER COUNTRIES TO BUILD THOSE DATA CENTERS AND THEY NEED THE U.S.-CHINA RELATIONSHIP ON TRADE TO REMAIN ON AN EVEN KEEL. FRANCINE: FRANKLY, SOMETIMES WE UNDERESTIMATE THEM AND WE NEED CHINA ON-SITE TO DEAL WITH IRAN. BRENDAN: ABSOLUTELY, YOU CAN LOOK AT THE SITUATION WITH UKRAINE AS WELL.

THE ENERGY CRISIS THAT THE U.S. IS FACING AS TRUMP HEADS INTO THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. IT'S A BIG ISSUE. IT SEEMS LIKE THE LAST THING HE NEEDED WAS ANOTHER FLAREUP OF THE TRADE WAR WITH CHINA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WITH THE INFLATION SIGNALS NOT ENDING IN HIS DIRECTION. FRANCINE: BRENDAN, THANK YOU. HE COVERS GLOBAL TRADE FOR US. JOINING US NOW, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER FROM UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT. WHAT DID WE LEARN ABOUT TRADE THAT MAKES YOUR JOB INVESTING IN THE MARKET EASIER OR HARDER?

MARK: VERY INTERESTING DISCUSSION AND THINGS DIDN'T GET WORSE. I'M A VERY CYNICAL PERSON AND ALSO A BIT OF A STUDENT OF HISTORY AND I WOULD SAY MUCH OF THE PEACE WE'VE HAD IN THE WORLD IS WHEN TWO POWERS THINK I CAN WAIT FIVE YEARS BEFORE HAVING A MORE SERIOUS CRISIS OR ENGAGEMENT, I WILL BE IN A BETTER POSITION. EVEN IF THAT'S GOING ON RIGHT NOW, WE WILL TAKE IT WITH SO MANY OTHER THINGS GOING ON IN THE WORLD. FRANCINE: WHAT ARE YOU MAINLY FOCUSING ON?

WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BOND MARKET, THAT WAS EXTRAORDINARY. A LOT OF PEOPLE IN NEW YORK, THEY SAID WE SHUDDER AT YIELDS AT 5% BUT THEY'VE BEEN ABOVE THAT IN THE LAST 30 YEARS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WHAT'S YOUR TAKE? MARK: THE NUMBER I WOULD START WITH IS THE U.S. ECONOMY EXITED THE SECOND QUARTER WITH 6.6% NOMINAL GROWTH. THAT IS A LOT OF POWER AND MOMENTUM TO KEEP EARNINGS GROWTH RELATIVELY HIGH NEXT YEAR -- YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE A HERO TO GET DOUBLE DIGIT EARNINGS GROWTH.

WE ARE FOCUSED ON DOES THAT GROWTH CONTINUE, AND A LOT OF THAT IS THE AI TRADE. AS LONG AS IT DOES, A FEW RATE HIKES, HIGHER RATES IN THE 10 YEAR ARE PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KILL WHAT IS SOME THING OF A GLOBAL RALLY. FRANCINE: IS AI IN A BUBBLE? HOW DO YOU PLAY AI? VALUATIONS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR SOME OF THEM. DO YOU PLAY AROUND IT OR IS THERE STILL ROOM TO GO? MARK: WE DON'T THINK AI IS IN A BUBBLE. WE THINK THE INVESTMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

I THINK IT WAS VERY SIGNIFICANT, THE SUCCESS GOING ON BECAUSE CONSUMER AI -- REMEMBER THE HYPE AROUND ANTHROPIC WAS ALL THE CODERS WERE USING IT. IF WE CAN GET A MUCH LARGER MARKET OF CONSUMERS IN AI, THAT COULD STILL BE A GAME CHANGER. ALL OF THAT SAID, I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS WE SEE IS THIS KIND OF DISPERSION OF THE GAINS FROM AI, THE BROADENING OUT. WE WOULD WANT TO BROADEN OUR EXPOSURE, NOT JUST AWAY FROM AI BUT ALSO MORE INTERNATIONALLY.

SAY, E.M. FOR EXAMPLE, OR EVEN EUROPE, WHERE WE'VE SEEN SOME INDUSTRIAL EXPANSION. ALSO THE BIG SECTOR -- EVERYBODY IS LOOKING AT HOW DO I GET AWAY FROM AI -- WE WOULD SAY HEALTH CARE, WHICH HASN'T BENEFITED

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