日媒分析：日本央行加息滞后令日元承压
Yen at Risk as BOJ Lags Behind Its Peers: Market Analysis
One thing that seems to be moving a little is the Japanese yen. A bit of volatility there associated perhaps with the finance ministers comments suggesting that President Trump is concerned about weakness in the yen. And when we knew the administration was concerned because we've heard Scott Benson talk about it a number of times. So what was the latest news flow? What does it do for the prospects? Yeah. Good morning.
似乎有所变动的一件事是日元。日元的些许波动或许与财政部长们的评论有关，这些评论暗示特朗普总统对日元疲软表示担忧。当我们得知美国政府对此表示关切时，因为我们多次听到斯科特·本森（Scott Benson）谈论此事。那么最新的消息面如何？这对前景有何影响？是的。早上好。
And and happy Mid-Autumn Festival for those who, uh, celebrate from, uh, Singapore here. Um, I think that the yen is a little bit stronger today. And clearly the comments from Trump gave a little bit of a catalyst for that, the idea being that the US administration really is serious in raising this at the highest levels with the Japanese authorities. And we also heard, you know, Japan was, uh, back from the trip to the US and talking about it in the cabinet meeting, uh, we heard from the minister, Kiichi, talking about the idea, which we've heard from Besson plenty of times, that I'll bet no mix is over.
还有，祝在此庆祝中秋节的各位，尤其是来自新加坡的各位，中秋快乐。嗯，我认为今天日元略微走强。显然，特朗普的言论为此提供了一些催化剂，其背后的逻辑是美国政府确实正以最高级别向日本当局严肃提出这一问题。我们还了解到，日本结束了访美之行，并在内阁会议上讨论了此事；我们还听到了基奇（Kiichi）部长的讲话，他提到了一个观点，即“没有混合”（no mix is over），这一点我们已从贝森（Besson）那里听过很多次。
You know, the need for, uh, super low interest rates in Japan, um, is no longer the case. And so between them, that gave the yen a little bit of a boost, bringing it back away. Remember, it had been weakening in recent levels back towards where there was the reported verbal intervention at the back end of last week. Um. Bit more stability today. I don't think that that is the long, uh, the sort of end story for the yen or necessarily that the even that the bottom is in.
你知道，日本不再需要超低利率了。因此，这两方面因素共同给日元带来了一些提振，使其从近期走弱、接近上周后期报道的口干预水平的位置回升。嗯。今天局势更加稳定。我不认为这是日元的最终结局，也不一定有迹象表明底部已经确立。
And I think that some of the commentary that we've heard, um. Would, would reinforce that as well. The problem for the DOJ is, even though it's finally starting to sound a bit more aggressive in terms of its hiking cycle. So is everybody else. And so if the DOJ, if the BG is still only hiking once, a quarter of the fed is hiking more aggressively, the ECB is getting on with it as well. That's not going to help the yen particularly, and it's not going to help the cause for Japan trying to avoid getting behind the curve, um, and providing the currency with more supports.
而且我认为我们听到的一些评论也会加强这一观点。美国司法部（DOJ）的问题在于，尽管它终于在加息周期中听起来更具攻击性。其他人也是如此。如果美国司法部或英国央行（BG）每个季度仅加息一次，而美联储（fed）加息更为激进，欧洲央行（ECB）也在积极推进，那这并不会特别利好日元，也无助于日本避免落后于形势的努力，更无法为货币提供更多支撑。
Paul, what's the read from Asia of the Trump XI summit? What am I saying there? Yeah. No. Uh, that impressed. If you look at Hong Kong stocks uh, in particular guy uh, bit of a down day today. I think the concern is the, uh, we did get, you know, the bare minimum, right? We got a bit of an extension on the trees. We got some niceties. We definitely had a good meeting, uh, at the banquet overnight. Uh, but we didn't get an awful lot of concrete, uh, deals so far.
保罗，亚洲方面对特朗普与习主席峰会的解读是什么？我刚才在说什么？嗯。不。呃，那令人印象深刻。如果你看看香港股市，尤其是……今天稍微有点下跌。我认为担忧在于，我们确实得到了，你知道的，最底线的结果，对吧？我们在树木（trees）问题上得到了一些延期。我们也得到了一些客套话。我们确实在晚宴上进行了很好的会谈。但到目前为止，我们没有达成太多具体的交易。
Maybe the more emerge before she goes back to China. Um, but so far, uh, there wasn't a great deal inside the market as a result. Came under a little bit of pressure, particularly in the equity spaces, holidays in China. Um, today and patchy over the next couple of weeks. So we might not get a full read of exactly what happened until a bit later on. Paul, what do you think is the next catalyst for these bond markets?
也许在她返回中国之前会有更多情况浮现。嗯，但到目前为止，市场内部并没有出现太大的反应。受到了一点压力，特别是在股票领域，加上中国的假期因素。嗯，今天是这样，未来几周也是断断续续的。所以我们可能要到稍晚时候才能完全了解到底发生了什么。保罗，你认为这些债券市场的下一个催化剂是什么？
Hi, Tom. As the oil guys and the oil guys would probably say, ask the ask the government reporters and, uh, talk about the they are a situation in the Middle East. Um, but definitely feels to me like the swings up and down in the energy price and in the end, consumer, uh, energy prices, gasoil, uh, petrol has really been moving the market a great deal. Uh, in terms of sentiment. Now, that's not the only reason. If you look at the bond yields, if you look at the real yield, which strips out inflation and even then, uh, they've been rising and setting new highs.
嗨，汤姆。就像石油行业的人可能会说的那样，去问问政府记者吧，嗯，谈谈中东的情况。嗯，但在我看来，能源价格以及最终消费者层面的能源价格——柴油、汽油——的大幅波动确实极大地影响了市场情绪。当然，这不是唯一的原因。如果你看看债券收益率，看看剔除通胀后的实际收益率，即使如此，它们也在上升并创下新高。
So there's definitely a whole cocktail of, um, different measures at the moment that are weighing on the bond market. If we do get, you know, lower oil prices, that would give some respite. But otherwise there's a strong possibility that with more supply coming into the market, the pressure for rates to go higher will continue.
所以目前肯定有一系列不同的因素在拖累债券市场。如果我们真的能迎来较低的油价，那将提供一些喘息之机。但除此之外，随着更多供应进入市场，利率进一步上升的压力很可能会持续存在。
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