美债收益率创新高，中美延长贸易休战至1月10日

ANNA: GOOD MORNING, EVERYBODY. IT’S THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24. AND HERE’S WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THIS MORNING. TWO DECADE HIGHS ON TREASURY YIELDS AT THE GLOBAL BOND SELLOFF CONTINUES, STRONG U.S. DATA AND HIGHER OIL PRICES DROVE THAT MOVE. IRAN’S PRESIDENT SENDS A DEFIANT MESSAGE AT THE UN. WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE RECENT TALKS? AND THE U.S. AND CHINA EXTEND THEIR TRADE TRUCE. BUT ONLY FOR TWO MONTHS AS XI ARRIVES IN AMERICA.

TOM: EUROPEAN FUTURES UP BY .6% THIS THURSDAY MORNING AFTER THE LOSSES OF YESTERDAY. OIL OF COURSE IS A FACTOR AS IS THAT GLOBAL BOND SELLOFF. BRENT CURRENTLY TRADING AT $103 A BARREL. JUST UP CLOSE TO .2% IN THE SESSION SO FAR. THE U.S. 10-YEAR AT 5.12%. A BIT OF STABILIZATION IN GLOBAL BONDS. THOUGH IT’S WORTH NOTING THAT JAPANESE BONDS ARE SELLING OFF PRETTY SHARPLY ACROSS THE CURVE. THE COUNTDOWN TO "THE OPENING TRADE" STARTS RIGHT NOW.

GUY: THURSDAY MORNING, GOOD MORNING. HOW ARE YOU DOING? A QUICK MENTION OF THIS. LOOKS WORSE THAN IT IS AND THOUGHT -- THOUGHT ABOUT THE EMMANUEL MACRON SUNGLASSES AND DECIDED HE COULDN’T PULL IT OFF. ANNA: A BIG FAN. GLASSES. GUY: YOU LOOK GOOD IN THEM. YOU LOOK FANTASTIC IN THEM. I’M NOT SO SURE. BUT LET -- LET’S -- THE BOND MARKET STORY IS AMAZING THIS MORNING. I AM GENUINELY FASCINATED. SO FRIDAY, YOU GET A MASSIVE SELLOFF IN FRENCH BONDS.

AND THE STORY OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS YOU HAVE SEEN A NUMBER OF FUNDS CARTED OUT SO REAL TROUBLE. SO BOND MARKETS HAVE CAUSED FUNDS TO FAIL. YOU SAW A MASSIVE MOVE YESTERDAY. ITALY UP 14. FRANCE UP 15. UK WAS UP 10. JAPAN HAS COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT -- YOU’RE SEEING A BIG MOVE UP IN THE JAPANESE BOND MARKET AS WELL. TREASURY MARKETS OBVIOUSLY AT THE CENTER OF THIS. IT IS -- IT WAS A COCKTAIL OF EVENTS. ANNA, YOU MENTIONED A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT MOVED THE MARKET YESTERDAY.

THE OIL PRICE MOVING BACK UP AGAIN ON THE IRANIAN COMMENTS. YOU ALSO HAD THE PMI DATA WHICH CAME OUT. SO YOU HAVE A STRONG U.S. ECONOMY THAT’S DEFINITELY HOT. BUT YOU ALSO HAVE A FIVE-YEAR AUCTION WHICH DIDN’T GO VERY WELL. YOU ALSO HAD BESSENT’S BUYBACKS COMING OUT AND HE STUCK A -- RATHER THAN STOPPING SIX WENT FOR 10 AND A COCKTAIL OF FACTORS HERE. BUT WHAT I’M NOW READING IS A LOT OF NOTES THAT SAY THE U.S. 10 COULD GO TO 6% AND BEYOND 6%.

WHERE THE THINGS START TO REALLY BREAK. ANNA: AND THESE ARE THE QUESTIONS WE HAVE TO KEEP ASKING OF OUR GUESTS WHERE DO THEY SEE THEM GOING? IS THERE VALUE HERE YET OR KEEP ON SELLING OFF? AND THE CONTEXT OF ALL OF THAT AND THE STRENGTH OF THAT PMI DATA A 58 HANDLE SOME OF THOSE PMI’S YESTERDAY OUT OF THE UNITED STATES, REALLY, REALLY STRONG GROWTH INDICATORS. AND ALL OF THAT ADDING UP TO HIGHER EXPECTATIONS OF HIKES FROM THE FED.

AND THAT WEIGHT ON STOCKS CERTAINLY WEIGHED ON STOCKS IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. AND WE’RE NOW EXPECTING I THINK THREE HIKES OVER THE NEXT YEAR. MAYBE EVEN A FOURTH. AND THAT REALLY DOES CONTRAST WITH THE MEDIAN FED DOT PLOT THAT WE GOT JUST LAST WEEK. WHICH DIDN’T SUGGEST WE WOULD SEE MUCH HIKING NEXT YEAR. TOM: 70% ODDS OR THEREABOUTS OF A HIKE COMING THROUGH IN OCTOBER. AND AS YOU SAY, ANOTHER THREE BETWEEN NOW AND APRIL OF NEXT YEAR.

HAWKISH COMMENTS FROM SOME FED OFFICIALS OVER RECENT DAYS. GUY: MENTIONED THAT.

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS UNHAPPY WITH THAT COMMENTARY. WELL, THE COMMENTARY ALLIANCE WITH WHAT WE’RE SEEING AND THAT DATA WAS VERY STRONG YESTERDAY. THE AUCTION WAS WEAK AND OIL PRICES REMAIN HIGH. AND SO YOU SEE THESE -- YOU SEE THESE LEVELS. THE RISK PREMIUM AROUND EQUITIES IS GOING TO BE INTERESTING AS WELL. IN TERMS OF HOW TO THINK ABOUT HOW MUCH UNWIND IS GOING TO BE COMING THROUGH IN THE EQUITY SPACE. IF THAT GETS COMPRESSED.

AND MOVING INTO -- TO TRY TO CAPTURE SOME OF THIS UPSIDE IN YIELDS. WHEN DOES THAT HAPPEN? TO YOUR POINT AROUND A 6% LEVEL AND WHAT THAT DOES. GUY: THAT FEELS LIKE IT’S A WAY AWAY BUT THE U.S. ECONOMY IS RIPPING. THAT IS THE STORY HERE. TOM: WAGES. GUY: EVERYTHING. JUST LOOKS STRONG. AND IF YOU’RE WORRIED ABOUT -- THIS -- THE IDEA OF THE LABOR MARKET PARKS THE IDEA AND FUNDAMENTALLY PARKS THE IDEA I THINK THAT THE FED IS IN ANY WAY RESTRICTIVE.

ANNA: RIGHT. ALTHOUGH KEVIN HASSETT WOULD HAVE TO DISAGREE. AND WE HEARD FROM HIM. HE’S SAYING THERE’S LACK OF INDEPENDENCE AT THE FED AND THAT’S WHY WE’RE SEEING ALL THIS HAWKISH TALK. GUY: HOW CAN YOU CLAIM THAT THE FED IS RESTRICTIVE AT THIS POINT? WITH AN ECONOMY THAT DOING SIRICA 8%. -- CIRCA 8%. YOU CANNOT ARGUE THAT. AND I THINK IT’S A REAL STRUGGLE. THAT’S WHAT WARSH’S POINT IS. LOOK OUT THE WINDOW. ECONOMY IS FLYING.

YOU NEED TO SLOW IT DOWN. TOM: THE TREASURY SECRETARY AT THIS POINT FAILING TO CONTROL THE LONG END IN TERMS OF THE SELLOFF. SO MAYBE HE’S TRYING TO JAW BONE THE OIL MARKETS. SAYING THAT WE GET OCCASIONALLY 17 MILLION BARRELS A DAY. SOMETIMES TRANSITING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. SOMETIMES. THE DEBATE IS THERE IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH IS ACTUALLY GETTING THROUGH IN TERMS OF FLOWS. THE IRANIANS MAKING IT PRETTY CLEAR YESTERDAY THIS REMAINS A KEY BARGAINING CHIP FOR THEM AND NOT GOING TO BACK DOWN UNTIL THAT BLOCKADE IS LIFTED.

UNTIL SANCTIONS ARE LIFTED. AND SO WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT VOLATILITY AROUND OIL PRICES AND NOW THE U.S. IS THINKING, CONSIDERING, DISCUSSING, WHETHER OR NOT THEY REDUCE EXPORTS AND CONSTRAIN EXPORTS IN SOME FORMAT IN TERMS OF DECEMBER WILLING OUT OF THE U.S. -- OF DIESEL OUT OF THE U.S. GUY: THE PROBLEM IS OIL IS NOT THE PROBLEM ANYMORE. THE PRODUCT IS THE PROBLEM AND DIESEL IS THE ISSUE. IT’S NOT ABOUT SHIPS TRANSIING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ANYMORE.

IT’S REFINING CAPACITY AND WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THAT SPACE. AND THAT’S WHERE THE BOTTLENECK, THE CHOKE POINT NOW IS. AND YOU CAN SEE IT IN ALL. PRODUCT MARKETS. AND YOU GET A DIESEL BAN OUT OF THE UNITED STATES, THERE IS -- EVEN THE ENERGY SECRETARY IS TALKING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE. ANNA: WE WILL -- WE WILL TALK TO A REFINER LATER ON IN THIS PROGRAM AND TALK TO DANI BURGER ONE OF THE REFINERS THAT’S BEEN KEEPING THE SUPPLY OF JET FUEL AND DIESEL WHEN OTHER SUPPLIES HAVE MORE RESTRICTED.

MORGAN STANLEY OUT WITH A PIECE OR COMMENTARY THAT SUGGESTS -- MAYBE THIS PUSHES UP PRICES FOR DIESEL OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES. BUT DOES IT EVEN WEIGH ON PRICES FOR DIESEL IN THE UNITED STATES? AND CASTING DOUBTS ON THAT. IF YOU -- AND WE COULD SEE HIGHER GAS -- WHAT WE CALL PETROL PRICES. AT THE PUMP PRICES COULD GO HIGHER. BECAUSE IF YOU REDUCE EXPORTS, THAT MEANS YOU HAVE TO STORE MORE DIESEL AND THAT SENDS THE SIGNAL TO REFINERS NOT TO REFINE SO MUCH.

YOU DON’T GET SO MUCH DIESEL BUT YOU ALSO DON’T GET QUITE AS MUCH GAS AT THE PUMPS. AND SO THAT COULD HAVE COUNTERINTUA ACTIVE IMPACTS, I SUPPOSE. TOM: INTERESTING TO SEE THE EUROPEAN CONSUMERS ARE RESPONDING AT LEAST IN SOME WAYS.

YES. TOM: WITH AUTO SALES. IN TERMS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES UP 52% YEAR ON YEAR. IN AUGUST. EUROPEAN ELECTRIC VEHICLES REGISTRATIONS. GUY: THE POINT ABOUT DIESEL IS AND A NICE NOTE WHICH I GOT HERE FROM APOLLO TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THAT THE LINE IS -- THE DIESEL SHOCK IS A CORE INFLATION SHOCK. UNLIKE PETROL SHOCK, WHICH JUST AFFECTS CONSUMERS, THIS IS AN INPUT INTO THE SUPPLY CHAIN. AND IT RIPPLES INTO FOOD AND RIPPLES INTO TRANSPORT AND RIP ANALYSIS ALL KINDS OF THINGS.

AND HE TALKS ABOUT THE FACT THAT THIS WILL HAVE A LASTING IMPACT ON CORE INFLATION. WHERE PETROL JUST HITS HEADLINE INFLATION. SO THIS IS A MUCH LONGER TRAJECTORY. ANNA: WE’LL WATCH THE MACRO IMPACT OF THAT. AND SPEAKING OF MACRO IMPACTS AS PRESIDENT XI LANDED IN AMERICA AND WHAT WAS AS A VERY WARM WELCOME. MUCH MORE OF A WELCOME ON THE TARMAC AT THE AIRPORT THAN OTHER LEADERS GET TYPICALLY. THEY USUALLY WELCOMED AT THE WHITE HOUSE.

THAT WAS SORT OF THE PAGEANTRY OF THE WHOLE THING AND AS HE WAS LANDING WE HEARD FROM SCOTT BESSENT A DEAL ON EXTENDING THE TRADE TRUCE BUT ONLY TO JANUARY 10. WHICH WILL BE A NICE NEW YEAR’S TREAT FOR EVERYBODY TO TALK ABOUT THAT ONE AGAIN. BUT MAYBE XI AND TRUMP CAN DO MORE THAN THAT. AND MAYBE THEY CAN DO SOMETHING BIGGER THAN THAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE’LL SE