Epoch AI：AI性能成本年降13倍，o3至GPT-5.6价格骤降
Another example of how impressive this technology really is: The cost of achievi…
算力成本曲线是AI商业化的核心变量，这份数据直接印证了AI普惠化的经济基础，从业者务必关注这一降本趋势对应用层爆发的推动力。
Another example of how impressive this technology really is: The cost of achieving a given level of AI performance is falling roughly 13-fold per year, according to Epoch AI.
另一个展示这项技术真正令人印象深刻的例子：根据 Epoch AI 的数据，实现给定 AI 性能水平的成本每年大约下降 13 倍。
Its analysis estimates a 47% quarterly decline since 2023, faster than any other transformative technology in history.
其分析估计，自 2023 年以来季度降幅为 47%，快于历史上任何其他变革性技术。
One example: OpenAI’s o3 exceeded 25% on FrontierMath Tiers 1–3 at a reported cost of about $0.55. Around 18 months later, GPT-5.6 Luna reached the same threshold for roughly $0.0015.
一个例子：OpenAI 的 o3 在 FrontierMath 第 1–3 级上得分超过 25%，据报道成本约为 0.55 美元。大约 18 个月后，GPT-5.6 Luna 以约 0.0015 美元达到了相同的阈值。
The fastest price declines tend to come immediately after a new capability appears. Across five benchmarks, Epoch estimates a 66% quarterly decline for newly achieved frontier performance, slowing to 32% two years later.
最快的价格下跌往往出现在新能力出现之后。在五个基准测试中，Epoch 估计新达到的前沿性能季度降幅为 66%，两年后放缓至 32%。
The consequence? In just a few more months, every person on this planet will have access to Fable 5-level entertainment at a fraction of today's cost. And this trend will probably continue indefinitely. Super exciting!
后果是什么？再过几个月，地球上每个人都能以今天成本的零头享受 Fable 5 级别的娱乐内容。而且这一趋势可能会无限期持续下去。令人兴奋！
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力