分析师：油价连跌六日利好美股，十月行情或加速
Stocks Rally Will Accelerate in October: Market Analysis
The slightly weaker oil price. Slightly weaker today. Weaker yesterday. This on the back of the expectations that maybe diplomacy can that can bring, you know cool heads to bear. Mark what do you what do you make of the of the price action around this lower oil price. What impact is it having on global bond markets. And you're thinking from here. So I think this is the sixth day in a row we're seeing Brent crude prices lower, which would be the longest streak in more than a year.
油价略有走弱。今天略弱，昨天更弱。这背后是市场期待外交手段能让各方保持冷静。马克，你怎么看待围绕这一较低油价的价格走势？它对全球债券市场产生了什么影响？你从当前局势出发进行分析。我认为布伦特原油价格已连续六天下跌，这将是一年多来最长的连跌纪录。
So I've seen long before the U.S. Iran war started. Uh, we talked about that Thursday. Almost two weeks ago, Trump put a massive extra premium in oil prices. And so from that moment onwards, uh, you know, after months of seeing asymmetric risks to the top side, it's skewed to being asymmetric risk to the downside. Now there's two potential ways that might come. There's the, you know, potential optimism around Russia Ukraine deal that you've just kind of analyzed ahead of the winter.
早在美伊战争爆发之前我就已注意到这一点。我们上周四讨论过这个问题。将近两周前，特朗普在油价中加入了巨额溢价。从那时起，经过数月观察顶部不对称风险后，市场已转向呈现底部不对称风险。目前可能有两种潜在路径：一是你对俄乌协议前景的乐观预期，该协议可能在冬季前达成；
Uh, and there's also just the fact that we might get something more positive in U.S., Iran that might just be more flows where we're seeing more flows go through the Strait of Hormuz. We're seeing Saudia, part of Saudi Arabia, possibly restore its pipeline. So the point is that going into the midterms, there is massive incentive out of the US to do something to get those oil prices lower. So I still think even after the declines the last six days, I still think the asymmetric risk reward is for oil prices to have much bigger down moves than top side moves, and that's positive for stocks.
二是美国与伊朗之间可能出现更积极的进展，促使更多石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。我们看到沙特阿拉伯的部分管道可能恢复运行。关键在于，在美国中期选举前夕，美方有巨大动力采取行动压低油价。因此，即使过去六天油价持续下跌，我仍认为油价向下大幅波动的不对称风险收益机会大于向上波动，这对股市构成利好。
It continues to be positive for for treasuries. So at the moment, the thing that's worrying me is that everything's kind of going to play out in the last few weeks. And markets everything's looking very bullish. And I get worried when things are looking very bullish and going to plan because that means I'm missing something. What's the catch? The obvious catalysts, you know, there's always the risk that something goes wrong in the eye trade.
这对国债市场继续构成利好。目前令我担忧的是，所有因素都将在最后几周集中显现。市场整体呈现非常看涨的态势。当一切看起来非常乐观且按预期发展时，我会感到不安，因为这意味着我可能遗漏了某些东西。问题出在哪里？明显的催化剂方面，当然始终存在交易环节出现意外的风险。
But that's been there for a long while. There's always a risk that we get another random flare up and you're in the Middle East. But again, the incentives are lower for that to happen ahead of the mid-term from the US side. So it's not you know, that's not a fresh one. So what's the risk out there. Trump XI summit again. Where's the incentive to blow that up. So I'm really struggling to understand why markets aren't even higher.
但这种风险已存在很长时间。在中东地区，始终存在再次发生随机冲突升级的风险。但同样，从美方角度看，在中期选举前发生此类事件的动力已降低。因此这并不是新的风险。那么真正的风险是什么？特朗普与习主席的峰会再次面临考验。为何要破坏这一局面？我真的难以理解为什么市场甚至没有更高。
It seems very bullish out there. So so why aren't funds very risky. Why was that not happening? I am struggling and in my clutch for reasonings reasoning I think one I think that the, the gains are very concentrated in the I said two, which means there's a risk of volatility. Breadth is never reasonably bearish, but it does mean there's higher volatility. So people are perhaps waiting for better opportunities to enter.
市场看起来非常看涨。那么为什么资金没有承担太多风险？为什么这种情况没有发生？我一直在苦苦思索原因，我认为其中一个原因是，收益非常集中在我提到的两只股票上，这意味着存在波动性风险。市场广度从未合理看跌，但这确实意味着波动性更高。因此，人们可能在等待更好的入场机会。
But that again is more structurally bullish to you. And if there's there's a lot of money waiting to buy a dip that may not come. There's the September seasonality, which I have been worried about, but we're seeing no sign of that really hitting yet. There's always a risk that Trump is Trump into the Trump XI summit. It would seem strange that the incentives frame do to cause a real risk off ahead of the midterms does not seem to make sense.
但这对您来说在结构上更加看涨。如果有大量资金等待逢低买入，而下跌可能不会到来。还有九月的季节性因素，我一直对此感到担忧，但我们尚未看到它真正产生影响。始终存在特朗普就是特朗普的风险，直到特朗普与习主席的峰会。似乎很奇怪的是，中期选举前的激励框架并未导致真正的避险情绪，这似乎不合逻辑。
But there's there is a chance that, you know, he just, you know, comes out of the meeting, kind of goes, you know what we're going to reimposing, uh, you know, uh, the temporary tariffs on China or, you know, I'm upset with what they've done or whatever, something aggressive there. But I don't think that any of these risks are either new or the risk reward has to be negative. I think there are a lot of people like I was kind of thinking that, you know, there might be some dip in the second half that, you know, that's the chance to get the year and rally.
但也有一种可能性，你知道，他只是在会议结束后，心想，好吧，我们要重新对中国实施临时关税，或者他对他们的所作所为感到不满，或者无论如何，采取一些激进的行动。但我认为这些风险中没有任何一个是新的，或者风险回报必须是负面的。我认为有很多人像我一样在想，你知道，下半年可能会出现一些回调，你知道，那是抓住全年并反弹的机会。
I think we see the turn of the month into October and people might be chasing this aggressively if nothing bad happens soon.
我认为我们看到月初进入十月，如果不久后没有发生坏事，人们可能会积极追逐这一趋势。
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