CFTC发布预测市场操纵风险指引

The CFTC’s market-oversight staff has told prediction market exchanges that contracts on what a person says, whether they attend an event or whom they interact with may be presumed readily susceptible to manipulation. Exchanges seeking to list them should be prepared to show, contract by contract, why their safeguards are strong enough to address that risk.

The September 22 staff advisory is not a Commission rule or a ban. It creates no new binding obligation. It does, however, give exchanges a much more specific account of the analysis staff expects under the existing requirement that listed contracts not be readily susceptible to manipulation.

For a contract tied to a person’s words, attendance or interactions, staff expects the exchange’s Part 40 filing to explain:

• What constrains the person determining the outcome: Are legal, professional, contractual or other obligations likely to deter them from changing their words or conduct just to settle the contract?
• Who could influence that person: Could a trader use an inducement, a question or public pressure to prompt the settlement-determining action?
• How the result can be checked: Is it independently verifiable and subject to substantial public scrutiny, or does it turn on an incidental word or a private interaction?
• How the exchange will police trading: Which people could know or influence the result, and what tailored restrictions, position limits, reporting and surveillance address them?

For an attendance contract, staff suggests restricting trades by the named person and those acting with them, reviewing their public statements against positions and trading data, and increasing surveillance around the event. Those are examples of safeguards, not a new mandatory checklist; the advisory calls for a contract-specific assessment.

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Santos and Perez faced CFTC action; Armstrong’s call raised another risk

Former Rep. George Santos traded Kalshi contracts on whether he would attend the February 2026 State of the Union while posting about his plans. The CFTC found that he made material misrepresentations and omissions about those plans, and prices moved after his posts. His trading generated $17,569.98 in profits.

In a July 31 settlement, the CFTC ordered Santos to give up that profit, pay a $17,500 civil penalty and stop violating the relevant law; it imposed a three-year trading ban. Kalshi separately imposed a permanent platform ban.

Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform.

Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for. 💋

— George Santos (@Georgesantos) August 31, 2026

White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez used advance access to President Donald Trump’s speeches to trade presidential mention contracts from December 2025 through February 2026, the CFTC found.

On August 28, the CFTC announced a settlement ordering Perez to disgorge $107,539.02 in profits and pay a $65,000 penalty, with a three-year trading ban. Kalshi assisted the agency. Perez had the prepared remarks before other traders heard the speeches.

In October 2025, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said he had been watching a prediction market on what the company would say during its earnings call. He then added several words tracked by the market before the call ended. Armstrong later said it happened spontaneously after a colleague shared the market link.

lol this was fun – happened spontaneously when someone on our team dropped a link in the chat https://t.co/tQiV3B9jUj

— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) October 31, 2025

There is no finding that Armstrong traded the contracts or committed a violation. A recording confirms his words, but he chose to add the traded terms after seeing the market. The advisory notes that an unrelated earnings-call buzzword may escape meaningful scrutiny.

Sports mentions were pulled, but staff’s warning reaches further

Kalshi removed sports announcer mention contracts in August amid a reported CFTC examination while continuing to offer other mention markets at that time. The new advisory covers speech, attendance and interaction contracts beyond sports.

The NFL had objected in March to contracts on broadcast mentions and celebrity attendance, citing the risk that outcomes could be influenced or known in advance. It renewed those objections in September. Neither the league nor the CFTC has said its requests caused Kalshi’s withdrawal.

Staff says a well-designed contract can overcome the presumption in limited circumstances, but an obligation on the speaker not to misbehave does not replace the exchange’s own controls. The measures must fit the people and conduct that determine that contract’s settlement.

Staff encourages exchanges to identify potential controllers and known insiders and describe measures such as restricted-trader lists, employment checks, position accountability, reporting and surveillance for unusual trading. A generic claim that a speech is public is not enough to answer how someone with a script, guest list or direct influence over the speaker could trade.

The next test will be in exchange product filings and listings: whether exchanges add contract-specific safeguards, narrow the markets they offer or stop listing some contracts. The advisory does not itself delist an existing market or establish that every mention contract is unlawful.