阿里巴巴发布最强AI芯片，Meta AI Agent提振美股科技股
Alibaba Unveils Powerful AI Chip as Meta Revives AI Optimism
阿里新芯片落地与Meta AI Agent发布构成中美科技产业实质性进展，直接关联半导体供应链逻辑与估值体系，建议关注相关标的走势及资金流向。
NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS, THIS IS "THE PULSE." GUY: TUESDAY THE 22ND, WELCOME. WHAT DO YOU NEED TO KNOW? AI TRADE ROARING BACK IN AMERICA. METAS AI AGENT NEWS FUELING OPTIMISM. ALIBABA UNVEILING WHAT IT IS AS CHINA'S MOST POWERFUL AI CHIP. OIL SNAPS A FOUR-DAY LOSING STREAK AS TRADERS WAY SUPPLY RISKS VERSUS HOPES FOR THE END OF THE U.S.-IRAN WAR. THE ECB'S CHIEF ECONOMIST MORNING A NEW ENERGY SHOCK WILL HAVE TO INFLATION HIGHER FOR LONGER.
新闻焦点与市场动向，这里是《脉搏》。盖伊：22日星期二，欢迎收看。你需要知道什么？美国AI交易强势回归。Meta的AI代理新闻提振了市场乐观情绪。阿里巴巴展示了其自称为中国最强大的AI芯片的产品。油价终结连续四日下跌，因交易者权衡供应风险与美国-伊朗战争结束的希望。欧洲央行首席经济学家莫尔纳警告，新的能源冲击将使通胀在更长时间内保持高位。
PRESIDENT TRUMP GOES TO THE U.N. WHERE HE WILL SPEAK TO THE U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY AND MEET LEADERS INCLUDING ANDY BURNHAM AND UKRAINE'S PRESIDENT. A DECENT ROUND YESTERDAY AND TECH IN THE U.S., IT HAS DEFINITELY FADED. YOU CAN SEE IT HAPPENING OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE ASIAN SESSION. S&P FUTURES ARE FLAT. YOU ARE NOT GETTING A CONTINUATION OF THAT BOUNCE. THE 10 YEAR STILL UP FIVE BUT ONLY JUST. THE EURO IS SLEEPING AT THE MOMENT. 1.1445.
特朗普总统前往联合国，他将向联合国大会发表演讲，并会见包括安迪·伯纳姆和乌克兰总统在内的各国领导人。昨日美股科技板块表现尚可，但涨势已明显消退。你可以看到这一变化发生在亚洲交易时段 overnight。标普期货持平。你无法看到此前反弹的延续。10年期国债收益率仍上涨5个基点，但幅度极小。欧元目前处于休眠状态，报1.1445。
THE REAL STORY IS THAT OIL IS BACK UP AND THAT SEEMS TO HAVE CLOSED THE DOOR ON THE TECH RALLY IT OPENED YESTERDAY. IT ALLOWED TECH TO RALLY. THAT DOOR HAS BEEN CLOSED. EUROPEAN MARKETS FAIRLY QUIET. VOLUMES ALL RIGHT. A FEW INDIVIDUAL STOCK STORIES THAT ARE WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO. BROADLY, WE ARE SHIFTING SIDEWAYS. ASML, SCHNIDER, ETC. NOT HAVING A BAD DAY. LET'S GET BACK TO THE TECH STORY. YESTERDAY WAS DEFINITELY DOMINATED BY TECH.
真正的故事是油价回升，这似乎关闭了昨日为科技股反弹打开的大门。它曾允许科技股上涨，但现在那扇门已经关上。欧洲市场相对平静。交易量正常。有一些值得关注的个股故事。总体而言，市场呈横盘震荡。ASML、施耐德等股票表现尚可，没有糟糕的一天。让我们回到科技话题。昨日显然由科技股主导。
TODAY LESS SO BUT LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT YESTERDAY TAUGHT US. AI STOCKS RALLYING. META'S MUSE AI AGENT TOPPING TO THE -- CLIMBING TO THE TOP OF THE MOBILE APP RANKING. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE IMPACT THIS IS HAVING. JOINING US FROM THE BLOOMBERG EQUITIES TEAM IS HENRY WREN. TALKING ABOUT FRONTIER LABS AND WHAT'S HAPPENING. THIS IS A TOOL THAT IS USEFUL TO ALL OF US, THAT WE CAN ACCESS. IT IS AN AGENT THAT WILL DO SO MUCH FOR US.
今天则没那么明显，但让我们谈谈昨天教会了我们什么。AI股票上涨。Meta的Muse AI代理登顶——攀升至移动应用排行榜首位。让我们讨论这一现象带来的影响。加入我们要的是彭博股权团队的海伦·雷恩（Henry Wren）。谈论前沿实验室（Frontier Labs）及其正在发生的事情。这是一个对我们所有人都有用的工具，我们可以访问它。它是一个将为我们做很多事情的代理。
THAT'S A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE AI TRADE. WHAT DOES THAT TELL US ABOUT WHAT THE NEXT LEG OF THE AI TRADE WILL LOOK LIKE? HENRY: AND IT IS FREE. GUY: FOR NOW. HENRY: IF YOU USE IT WITHIN THE LIMIT. IT CAN DO A LOT OF THINGS FOR YOU. IT CAN CONNECT TO THE FACEBOOK MARKETPLACE IF YOU WANT TO BUY SOMETHING. IT CAN READ YOUR SOCIALS IF YOU ALLOW IT TO. AND CAN CONNECT TO OPENTABLE, EMAIL, ETC. THIS IS ONE MORE THING TO THINK ABOUT FOR CONSUMERS.
这是对AI交易的另一种解读。这告诉我们AI交易的下一波行情会是什么样子？海伦：而且它是免费的。盖伊：目前是这样。海伦：如果你在使用时遵守限制条件。它可以为你做很多事情。如果你想买东西，它可以连接到Facebook市场。如果你允许，它可以读取你的社交媒体内容。还可以连接到OpenTable、电子邮件等。这是消费者需要思考的又一件事。
IT IS A NEW APP TO TRY OUT AND A LOT OF US HAVE ALREADY. GUY: IT IS LIKE A PERSONAL ASSISTANT. HENRY: YES. OBVIOUSLY, AS YOU MIGHT KNOW, FOR CHATGPT OR CLAUDE, YOU CAN USE IT AS A PERSONAL ASSISTANT BUT THIS IS MORE CONNECTED TO SOCIALS, LIKE THE FACEBOOK SUITE OF APPS. THAT IS WHY MANY OF US HAVE BEEN TRYING IT OUT. GUY: IN TERMS OF WHAT IMPACT THIS HAS ON THE CHIP SECTOR, IS THAT THE LOGICAL PROGRESSION? SOME OF THIS STUFF IS MORE LIKELY TO RUN ON DEVICES RATHER THAN IN THE CLOUD.
这是一个全新的应用，大家可以试用一下，而且我们已经有很多人试过了。盖伊：它就像一个私人助理。亨利：是的。显然，正如你可能知道的，对于 ChatGPT 或 Claude，你可以把它当作私人助理使用，但它与社交媒体联系更紧密，比如 Facebook 的应用套件。这就是为什么我们中的许多人一直在尝试它。盖伊：就这对芯片行业的影响而言，这是合乎逻辑的进展吗？其中一些内容更可能在设备上运行，而不是在云端。
IS THAT A SUBTLE SHIFT AS WELL? HENRY: MENTIONED AMD, JUST ENTER THE TRILLION DOLLAR MARKET CAP CLUB. A 10% RALLY YESTERDAY. MANY OTHER CHIP STOCKS DOING STRONGLY YESTERDAY, INCLUDING ARM OR INTEL. GUY: DOES THAT MEAN IT IS A CPU STORY RATHER THAN A GPU STORY? FOR THE BROADER AI HARDWARE. AMD IS VERY CLOSE TO META IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN. HENRY: MORE BROADLY, BETTER APPS MEANS MORE ADOPTION ON THE HARDWARE SIDE. GUY: BABA IS OUT WITH A NEW CHIP AS WELL.
这是否也是一种微妙的转变？亨利：提到 AMD，刚刚加入万亿美元市值俱乐部。昨天上涨了 10%。许多其他芯片股昨天表现强劲，包括 ARM 和英特尔。盖伊：这意味着对于更广泛的 AI 硬件来说，这是一个 CPU 的故事而不是 GPU 的故事吗？AMD 在供应链中与 Meta 关系非常密切。亨利：更广泛地说，更好的应用意味着硬件方面的采用率更高。盖伊：阿里巴巴也发布了一款新芯片。
TALK WITH THROUGH THE APPLICATIONS OF THAT BECAUSE IT IS A DIFFERENT STEP CHANGE. HENRY: IT JUST CAME WITH ALIBABA'S ANNUAL CLOUD CONFERENCE IN CHINA. THE COMPANY SAID ITS NEW CHIP IS TRIPLING PERFORMANCE FROM THE LAST GENERATION. IT CAN BE USED IN BULK FOR AI TRAINING AS WELL. OBVIOUSLY, A BREAKTHROUGH IN THE CHINA AI STORY. WE SEE THE MARKET REACTING VERY STRONGLY TODAY NOT ONLY WITH BABA, BUT ALSO TENCENT. PEOPLE SEE HARDWARE AS A KEY BOTTLENECK FOR THE AI ECOSYSTEM IN CHINA.
通过应用程序来谈谈这一点，因为这是一个不同的跨越式变化。亨利：它刚刚在中国阿里巴巴年度云会议上推出。该公司表示，其新芯片的性能是上一代的三倍。它也可以大规模用于 AI 训练。显然，这是中国 AI 故事中的一个突破。我们看到市场今天反应非常强烈，不仅针对阿里巴巴，还有腾讯。人们认为硬件是中国 AI 生态系统的关键瓶颈。
THAT IS WHY THE MARKET IS REACTING STRONGLY. FOR WESTERN CHIPMAKERS INCLUDING THE LIKES OF NVIDIA, IT SHOWS YOU CHINA IS VERY TOUGH MARKET TO CRACK BECAUSE YOU HAVE THIS TENDENCY FROM THE LOCAL VENDORS, THE LOCAL MAKERS THAT THEY WANT TO PRIORITIZE USING DOMESTIC SHIPS LIKE ALIBABA. GUY: HOW SIGNIFICANT IS IT THAT THE TECH RALLY RAN OUT OF STEAM OVERNIGHT? HENRY: JUST TO PUT THIS MOVE IN A BIT OF CONTEXT, WE HAVE FIVE DAYS IN A ROW IN TERMS OF GAINS FOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX.
这就是市场反应如此强烈的原因。对于西方芯片制造商，包括英伟达等公司，这表明中国市场是一个非常难以攻克的市场，因为你看到本地供应商和本地制造商有一种倾向，即希望优先使用像阿里巴巴这样的国产芯片。盖伊：科技股的反弹在一夜之间失去动力，这 significance 有多大？亨利：为了稍微提供一些背景，半导体指数已经连续五天上涨。
WE HAVE OIL PRICE EASING BACK A BIT IN THE PREVIOUS FOUR SESSIONS. PROBABLY IT IS OK IN TERMS OF THE MOVES BECAUSE WE ALREADY HAVE PRETTY STRONG SESSIONS FOR MOMENTUM STOCKS. GUY: A LOT OF PEOPLE GOING BACK TO NEUTRAL IN TERMS OF THE POSITIONING. THANK YOU VERY MUCH, HENRY. SO, THE RALLY IN TECH STOCKS SEEMS TO BE TAKING SOMETHING OF A BREATHER. OIL PRICES ARE ONCE AGAIN TRACKING A LITTLE HIGHER. IS THE OIL PRICE BASICALLY THE PACING MECHANISM FOR THIS MARKET?
在前四个交易日中，油价有所回落。从走势来看，这可能没问题，因为我们已经为动量股提供了相当强劲的交易日。盖伊：很多人将仓位调整回中性。非常感谢，亨利。因此，科技股的反弹似乎正在稍作喘息。油价再次小幅走高。油价基本上是这个市场的节奏调节器吗？
MIKE BELL AT RBC BLUEBAY JOINING US. IS IT ALL ABOUT THE OIL PRICE? MIKE: I THINK IT HAS DEFINITELY BEEN THE DRIVER OF BOND YIELDS THIS YEAR. ULTIMATELY, IT HAS BEEN OIL PRICES THAT HAVE DRIVEN BOND YIELDS HIGHER. I THINK IT MATTERS A LOT. GUY: IN TERMS OF WHERE WE GO NOW, WHAT CAN WE SEE IN TERMS OF THE RATES MARKET? IF OIL PRICES TAKE ANOTHER STEP TO THE UPSIDE AND WE ARE TALKING A LOT ABOUT RESERVES BEING RUN DOWN, GOING INTO THE WINTER PERIOD, THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL THIS TO HAPPEN, WHAT WITH THAT LOOK LIKE IN TERMS OF THE RATES?
RBC蓝湾的迈克·贝尔正在与我们连线。这是否都与油价有关？迈克：我认为今年债券收益率的驱动力毫无疑问是它。归根结底，是油价推动了债券收益率上升。我认为这非常重要。盖伊：就我们接下来的走向而言，从利率市场来看我们能看到什么？如果油价进一步上涨，且我们正大量讨论储备消耗、进入冬季时期，所有这些发生的可能性，在利率方面会呈现何种景象？
MIKE: I THINK ULTIMATELY, IT IS QUITE HARD NOW TO SEE CENTRAL BANKS HIKING MORE THAN IT IS PRICED AND AT THE FRONT END. I DO THINK EVEN THE FRONT END IS STILL SENSITIVE TO THE OIL PRICE. EVEN THOUGH I DON'T THINK THE CENTRAL BANKS WILL HIKE MORE THAN CURRENTLY PRICED, I THINK THAT THE MARKET WOULD STILL SEE A REPRICING HIGHER IN RATES IF YOU SAW OIL PRICES MOVE HIGHER. EVEN THOUGH EVENTUALLY, DOWN THE LINE, WE LOOK BACK AND SAY THEY WOULD NOT HIKE THAT MUCH.
迈克：我认为目前很难看到央行加息幅度超过已定价的水平，尤其是在前端。但我确实认为前端仍然对油价敏感。尽管我不认为央行会加息超过当前定价的水平，但如果您看到油价走高，我认为市场仍会看到利率重新定价至更高水平。尽管最终，往后看我们会说他们不会加息那么多。
THAT MAKES IT HARD TO TRADE BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT THE FUNDAMENTALS AND SAY RATES WILL NOT GO MORE UP THAN CURRENTLY PRICED -- GUY: SO YOU GOT TO $120 ON BRENT, SEVEN DOLLARS ON DIESEL, WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH TO TIP THE MARKET TO PRICE IN MORE? MIKE: I THINK FOR THE EQUITY MARKET -- GUY: I AM TALKING ABOUT YIELDS. MIKE: FOR YIELDS, YOU CAN SEE A MOVE HIGHER IN OIL PRICES, YIELDS WILL GO HIGHER. I THINK EQUITIES, IT BECOMES INTERESTING WHERE YOU ARE NOW AT THIS POINT WHERE THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM IS VERY IMPRESSED.
这使得交易变得困难，因为如果您审视基本面并指出利率不会比当前定价更高——盖伊：那么布伦特原油达到120美元，柴油价格上涨7美元，这足以让市场计入更多吗？迈克：我认为对于股市而言——盖伊：我在谈论收益率。迈克：对于收益率，您可以看到油价上涨，收益率也会走高。我认为股市则变得有趣起来，因为此时股权风险溢价已被严重压缩。
BOND YIELDS HAVE MOVED UP. THE EARNINGS YIELD IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD. OBVIOUSLY FOR MOST OF THAT PERIOD SINCE 2002, THAT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE. YOU ARE NOW AT THE POINT WHERE ANY MOVES HIGHER IN BOND YIELDS WILL PUSH THE BONDS YIELD UP AND THEN VALUATIONS DOWN. GUY: I HEAR THAT. LOGICALLY, I TOTALLY AGREE. IT JUST FEELS LIKE THE AI TRADE IS IMPERVIOUS TO THIS. IMPERVIOUS TO THE RATE STORY. IT IS ON TRACKS, IT IS ON RAILS AND JUST RUNNING OUT AND CONTINUING TO DO SO.
债券收益率已经上升。盈利收益率与10年期国债收益率非常接近。显然，自2002年以来的大部分时间里，情况并非如此。您现在处于这样一个阶段：债券收益率的任何上行都会推高债券收益率，从而压低估值。盖伊：我听到了这一点。从逻辑上讲，我完全同意。但这感觉就像AI交易对此毫不在意。对利率叙事无动于衷。它按部就班，沿着轨道运行，并且持续如此。
IT DOES NOT FEEL LIKE IT IS RATE SENSITIVE. IT IS NOT FEEL LIKE IT IS AS SENSITIVE AS IT WOULD BE TO THINGS LIKE WHAT IS HAPPENING BETWEEN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BONDS AND EQUITIES. MIKE: I THINK THERE IS SOME TRUTH TO THAT. THERE ARE TWO SIDES TO IT. IF THE EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS KEEP GOING UP, YOU CAN GET SOME VALUATION COMPRESSION AS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. I THINK THE OTHER THING IS IF YOU LOOK AT THE 1998 TO 2000 PERIOD, THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM WENT NEGATIVE ALSO IN 1987 FOR A WHILE.
它给人的感觉并不具备利率敏感性。它给人的感觉不像是对债券与股票之间的关系等事件那样敏感。迈克：我认为这有一定道理。此事有两面性。如果盈利预期持续上升，我们近期已经看到估值出现压缩。我认为另一件事是，如果你回顾1998年至2000年期间，股权风险溢价在1987年也曾一度转为负值。
IT ENDED PRETTY BADLY BUT YOU CAN HAVE PERIODS FOR THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM GOES NEGATIVE. IT DOES NOT USUALLY AND VERY WELL. GUY: YOU THINK THIS DOES NOT END WELL? MIKE: FOR EQUITIES, THERE ARE RISKS OUT THERE. WHEN I THINK ABOUT HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT, THE BIG MULTITRILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IN MY MIND IS THIS BALLPARK TRILLION DOLLARS A YEAR THAT IS BEING SPENT ON AI CAPEX, IT IS OBVIOUSLY BOOSTING EARNINGS BECAUSE IT GOES STRAIGHT THROUGH TO THE CASH FLOW OF THE CHIP COMPANIES AND GETS DEPRECIATED FOR THE HYPERSCALER SO THEY DON'T FEEL THAT COST UPFRONT.
结果相当糟糕，但股权风险溢价确实会出现负值的时期。这通常不会发生，而且情况良好。盖伊：你认为这结局不妙吗？迈克：对于股票而言，存在风险。当我思考这一切将如何展开时，我脑海中那个巨大的、涉及数万亿美元的问题是：每年在AI资本支出上花费的约一万亿美元，显然正在推高盈利，因为这些资金直接转化为芯片公司的现金流，并被超大规模用户（hyperscaler）进行折旧，因此他们无需 upfront（预先）感受到这笔成本。
CLEARLY, IT BOOSTS EARNINGS ALMOST MECHANICALLY. THE CRITICAL QUESTION IS THE MONEY THAT WILL FUND ALL OF THIS THAT IS GETTING SPENT ON AI COMING FROM NON-TECH COMPANIES -- THINK ABOUT THE BANKS. IT IS AI GOING TO LEAD TO BANKS BEING ABLE TO LEND MORE? IT IS NOT CLEAR TO ME THAT IT LEADS TO MORE LOAN GROWTH. HOW DO THEY FUND THE ADDITI
显然，这在机械层面上推高了盈利。关键问题是，用于资助所有这些AI支出的资金是否来自非科技公司——想想银行吧。AI是否会促使银行能够发放更多贷款？在我看来，这并不必然导致贷款增长。它们如何为新增部分提供资金
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力