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Bloomberg播客:油价连跌,市场关注美伊停火谈判与霍尔木兹海峡局势

Businessweek Daily: Oil Falls on Iran Hopes (Podcast)

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This is Bloomberg Businessweek daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business, finance and tech news. As it happens. The Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanback. Hey, listen, um, we've been talking about this. We know this time of the year here in New York City.

这是《彭博商业周刊》的每日报道,来自那本帮助全球领袖洞察塑造当今复杂经济格局的人物、公司与趋势,从而保持领先优势的杂志,以及全球商业、金融和科技新闻。即时呈现。由卡罗尔·马萨尔(Carol Massar)和蒂姆·斯坦巴克(Tim Stanback)主持的《彭博商业周刊》每日播客。嘿,听着,嗯,我们一直在谈论这个话题。我们知道纽约市这个时节的情况。

So, well, streets blocked off lots of barriers. Security on high alert. Uh, we've got a lot of officials coming in and out of the Bloomberg building as well. And you've got members of New York City police force all over Manhattan. Uh, the UN General Assembly getting underway. Yeah. You to, uh, UN headquarters right here in New York City, the meetings happening amid the Russian war against Ukraine. Uh, the U.S. war in Iran, now in its seventh month.

所以,嗯,街道被封锁,设置了大量路障。安保处于高度警戒状态。呃,我们也看到许多官员进出彭博大楼。纽约市警察遍布曼哈顿各处。呃,联合国大会即将开始。是的。你身处纽约市的联合国总部,会议在俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争、美国与伊朗的战争(现已持续第七个月)的背景下举行。

Carol, it is a lot. It's also got leaders from many different countries here in the U.S. and also meeting in other places too. So we want to figure out kind of what we all need to be focusing on this week. Chris Kennedy. That's part of his job. Here at Bloomberg, he's economic statecraft lead at our Bloomberg Economics team. He's out there in our Bloomberg D.C. news bureau Chris Unger. Let's not forget President Trump's meeting President XI of China.

卡罗尔,情况确实很复杂。这里也有来自许多不同国家的领导人,他们不仅在美国境内会面,也在其他地方进行会晤。因此,我们想弄清楚本周大家需要重点关注什么。克里斯·肯尼迪(Chris Kennedy)。这正是他的工作的一部分。在彭博社,他是彭博经济学团队的经济外交负责人。他在彭博华盛顿新闻中心实地报道。克里斯·昂格(Chris Unger)。别忘了特朗普总统与中国习近平主席的会晤。

He's also meeting the interim president of Venezuela. It feels like it's a game of whack a mole. The geopolitical version this week. What what's top of mind for you and the team in D.C. and all of our Bloomberg News reporters and editors that are following the UN General Assembly this week? Well, uh, as you said, this week is always a big one on the foreign policy front. We are, of course, watching Unga, the high level weekend.

他还正在会见委内瑞拉临时总统。这感觉像是一场打地鼠游戏。本周的地缘政治版本。你和华盛顿团队的脑海中,以及所有本周跟进联合国大会的彭博新闻记者和编辑们,最关注的是什么?嗯,正如你所说,本周在外交政策方面向来是大事云集的一周。我们当然在关注联大(Unga),即周末的高级别会议。

And, you know, we don't expect any major peace deals to come out of this week. Of course, the president would love to have some good news on the foreign policy front. So there's always a possibility he he could get something or message something. But in terms of what we're actually looking at, uh, we think the Gulf Cooperation Council meeting will be something to watch. Uh, in particular, there's a questions about, you know, U.S. commitment post midterms.

而且,你知道的,我们不指望本周能达成任何重大的和平协议。当然,总统非常希望在外交政策方面获得一些好消息。因此,他有可能取得某些成果或传递某种信息。但在我们实际关注的方面,呃,我们认为海湾合作委员会(GCC)的会议值得观察。特别是,人们不禁要问,中期选举后美国的承诺将如何。

There's questions about the extent to which the U.S. is willing to engage and defend some of the Gulf Arab allies in the region, especially after, uh, some of the requests coming out of Riyadh from Saudi Arabia for support from the U.S.. So just getting a sense of where things are going to be going from, from there. Uh, of course, del C Rodriguez's in town, as you mentioned. Uh, we see this as the U.S. really trying to put her forth to the global community as the legitimate leader of Venezuela, perhaps attract some additional investment from other countries.

人们质疑美国愿意在多大程度上介入并捍卫该地区的一些海湾阿拉伯盟友,尤其是在沙特阿拉伯从利雅得提出请求、要求美国提供支持之后。因此,我们希望能了解局势将如何发展。当然,正如你提到的,德尔·罗德里格斯(del C Rodriguez)正在华盛顿特区。我们认为,美国正试图向全球社区推出她,作为委内瑞拉的合法领导人,或许还能吸引其他国家更多的投资。

Uh, and then, uh, you know, Ukraine, Russia, uh, Zelensky and Trump will meet. Uh, President Trump is very concerned about diesel prices. We think it's unlikely that he will be able to secure a cease fire, primarily because that would require Russia to stop attacking Ukraine as well. As frustrated as Trump is about the refinery hits by Ukraine on Russian energy assets, then, uh, the big the big meeting between XI and Trump in DC.

然后,乌克兰和俄罗斯方面,泽连斯基与特朗普将会面。特朗普总统非常关注柴油价格。我们认为他不太可能促成停火,因为这需要俄罗斯也停止对乌克兰的攻击。尽管特朗普对乌克兰袭击俄罗斯能源资产感到沮丧,但接下来是习主席与特朗普在华盛顿特区的重大会晤。

Uh, so it's a lot we don't expect, uh, a ton there either. We do think that both sides really want to maintain stability right now. You know, China has no interest in a big shock to the relationship between the US. Um, and China right now because they depend on, you know, global growth holding up export markets around the world. And of course, the U.S. still depends on China for critical inputs like rare earths. And the president wants to avoid any additional economic headwinds before the midterms.

所以,我们并不指望会有太多进展。我们认为双方目前都真正希望维持稳定。中国不希望中美关系出现重大动荡,因为中国依赖全球增长来支撑世界各地的出口市场。当然,美国仍然依赖中国提供稀土等关键投入品。而且总统希望在中期选举前避免任何额外的经济逆风。

Chris. Forgive me for being you covered a lot. So we appreciate that. Forgive me for being a little provincial, though, and bringing up the mayor. Uh, mayor's meeting today with President Trump. That set to happen later this afternoon. The president is now on his way here to New York City for that meeting. From a D.C. perspective. I mean, we understand the New York perspective being New Yorkers here, but the D.C. perspective, why are you watching this?

克里斯,抱歉我刚才覆盖了很多内容,对此我们表示感谢。不过请原谅我略带地方视角,提到市长的事。今天市长将与特朗普总统会面,定于今天下午晚些时候举行。总统现在正前往纽约市参加此次会晤。从华盛顿特区的角度来看,我是说,我们知道在座的纽约人理解纽约的视角,但从华盛顿特区的视角来看,你们为什么关注此事?

Oh, the mayor's meeting. Yeah. Mayors meeting with the president on Monday. Yeah. So, you know, I think for for for the president, this is really just an exercise in messaging. I think we saw previously when president, uh, Trump met with, uh, Zoran Mamdani, that it was a relatively it was positively covered by the press. It was a bromance, Chris. Come on. Just go there. It's all in. He he's been. The president's been very frustrated by the way the media is covering him recently, as we saw, you know, kicking out some news, uh, outlets, uh, from white House access.

哦,市长会议。对。市长们周一与总统会面。是的。所以,你知道,我认为对总统来说,这真的只是一场宣传演练。我想我们之前看到特朗普总统与佐兰·曼达尼会面时,媒体进行了相对正面的报道。那是一种“兄弟情”,克里斯。得了吧。直接去那儿吧。他完全投入了。他一直在……总统最近对媒体的报道方式感到非常沮丧,正如我们所见,他把一些新闻机构赶出了白宫。

So I think that's that's primarily it it's not going to solve any of the problems and the challenges that he faces ahead of a midterm elections on November 3rd. One thing I want to ask you, and this is something we're going to dig in, Tim and I, over the next couple of hours is just this banning of certain news outlets and lack of TV pool coverage. Um, and now we've got the white House app where you can go to to find out what's going on.

所以我认为主要就是这样,它并不能解决他在11月3日中期选举前面临的任何问题和挑战。有一件事我想问你,这也是我和蒂姆接下来几个小时要深入探讨的话题,就是禁止某些新闻机构以及缺乏电视转播池覆盖的问题。嗯,现在我们有白宫应用程序,你可以去那里了解发生了什么。

Why is this? This isn't the first time the president has looked to ban members of the press community. Why is this happening now? Amid everything, I think it's done. Well, you know, certainly he, by all accounts, has talked about this in the past. He's been, uh, walked off of those threats, uh, by, you know, the team at the white House. That team has changed. Uh, Carolyn Leavitt is no longer at the white House. Uh, but, of course, I think the president sees all of the, uh, the negative headlines about the Iran war, about, you know, his his renovations and efforts to, uh, to renovate and put his name on the Kennedy Center.

为什么会这样?这不是总统第一次试图禁止新闻界成员。为什么现在会发生这种情况?在我看来,这一切似乎已经尘埃落定。当然,据各方消息,他过去曾谈论过此事。他的团队此前曾劝阻过他的那些威胁。但那个团队已经变了。卡罗琳·莱维特已不在白宫工作。不过,当然,我认为总统看到了所有关于伊朗战争的负面头条新闻,以及关于他翻新肯尼迪中心并挂上自己名字的举措的负面报道。

And it seems to just be boiling over. So, uh, that's how I would look at this. This is just sort of the culmination of a lot of bad news rather than, you know, some discreet change. and. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek daily coming up after this. Break. All right. So we did, um, mention the energy prices oil down for a fourth day. Brent set for the longest run, a decline since June. Traders tracking diplomatic efforts to end the US Iran war.

这看起来只是情绪即将爆发。所以,这就是我看待这件事的方式。这只是大量坏事的累积,而不是某种 discreet(谨慎/微妙)的变化。请继续收看。稍后将有更多彭博商业周刊每日节目的内容。广告时间。好的。我们刚才提到能源价格,油价连续第四天下跌。布伦特原油创下自6月以来最长的连跌纪录。交易员们正在追踪旨在结束美伊战争的外交努力。

Crude and liquefied natural gas flowing through Hormuz are running at a six month high. That's according to Admiral Brad Cooper. He is head of U.S. Central Command. So weighing in on the global energy markets amid the U.S. war in Iran, Qatar's prime minister and minister of foreign affairs, also an adviser to the prime minister of Qatar, an official spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Qatar's energy president, Qatar energy president, I should say, and CEO.

通过霍尔木兹海峡的原油和液化天然气流量正创下六个月来的新高。这是美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将的说法。因此,在美国对伊朗发动战争之际,他正在评估全球能源市场。卡塔尔首相兼外交大臣、卡塔尔首相顾问、外交部官方发言人、卡塔尔能源总裁——我指的是卡塔尔能源总裁,以及首席执行官。

He is also Qatar Minister of State for energy and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. You know him all at Sunday's Unga special edition of the Guitar Economic Forum. It was powered by Bloomberg. Just check it out, everyone. Each and every government. There is a lot of fat that needs to be cut, and every time you'll have such a crisis, we need to use this opportunity to cut this fat. For the past couple of weeks now, we've been going back and forth over different ideas to restart the talks since the end of hostilities, to, uh, to the region, the trade that we have, uh, through that straits.

他还是卡塔尔国务卿兼能源部长,以及前美国财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦。你们都知道,在周日《金融时报》特别版的吉他经济论坛上。该论坛由彭博社提供支持。大家快去看看吧。每个政府都存在着大量需要削减的冗余开支,每次发生危机时,我们都需要利用这个机会来削减这些冗余。过去几周里,我们就不同想法来回讨论,旨在自敌对行动结束以来重启谈判,以恢复我们通过该海峡进行的地区贸易。

It cannot be obsolete because you know, everything through, you know, that comes through to Iraq, to, to Iran, to to Qatar, to Kuwait, to Bahrain. I mean, we have a few countries that have waterways outside the Gulf, but the rest of the countries are all inside. We need to make it clear to the Iranians the strait is open and will be open and that they can hold it hostage. All right. That of last voice, of course. Former U.S.

它不能过时,因为你知道,所有经由那里通往伊拉克、伊朗、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林的东西……我的意思是,我们有一些国家拥有波斯湾以外的水道,但其余国家都在海湾内部。我们需要向伊朗人明确:海峡是开放的,并将保持开放,他们不能将其作为人质。好吧。当然,这是最后的声音。前美国

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. What's interesting is the three voices you heard before that, um, Qatari officials, Um, and then also, uh, certainly Qatar energy officials, just with

财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦。有趣的是,你之前听到的三个声音,嗯,卡塔尔官员,嗯,还有,呃,当然还有卡塔尔能源官员,只是与

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