Bloomberg播客：美联储加息后通胀粘性风险与高利率常态预期
US Diesel Tops Record as Global Crunch Feeds Inflation
Look, we've been optimistic on the US all year. I mean, the economy is doing really well and it's staged to keep growing well. We think it's benefiting from stimulative monetary policy, stimulative fiscal policy, stimulative wealth effects from the all the equity rally and stimulative effects on investment demand from from I. We think that that's poised to continue. We think the Fed's rate hike last week was really good news.
看，我们全年都对美国经济持乐观态度。我的意思是，经济表现非常好，并且有望继续保持良好增长态势。我们认为，经济正受益于扩张性货币政策、扩张性财政政策、股市全线上涨带来的财富效应，以及来自投资需求的刺激作用。我们认为这种势头有望持续。我们认为美联储上周的加息举措实际上是利好消息。
It shows that the fed is embracing this optimistic narrative. Warsh used the word optimism in this press conference. And we're seeing that the fed is prepared. It's willing and able to use its tools to keep the expansion healthy and balanced. And I do get your your notes that you send out to clients. What we saw last week after the Fed's decision that you're sticking with an expected another hike in December in January.
这表明美联储正在拥抱这一乐观叙事。沃什（Warsh）在新闻发布会上使用了“乐观”一词。我们看到美联储已做好准备，它愿意并能够运用其工具来保持扩张的健康与平衡。我确实收到了你发给客户的笔记。我们在美联储决定后看到，你坚持认为12月和1月还将有一次预期中的加息。
But this week we get more than a half dozen of fed speakers. We did hear from Austan Goolsbee earlier this morning saying the road to 2% inflation may not be painless. So you were talking about how you might potentially add a hike for that October meeting, depending on what you hear throughout this week. What did you view with these comments this morning, and what else are you watching for from these fed speakers this week?
但本周我们将听到超过六位美联储官员的讲话。我们今天早上早些时候听到了奥斯汀·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）的发言，他表示通往2%通胀目标的路径可能并非没有痛苦。因此，你在谈论如何根据本周听到的信息，潜在地在10月的会议上增加一次加息。你对今天早上这些评论有何看法？本周你还关注这些美联储官员的哪些其他言论？
Look, we agree that the road might not be painless, and we think that ultimately, the risks to our our path, we have to. We just had to have two more. We have one in December, one in January. But the risks are to a more concerted, a longer and a stronger tightening cycle, just because the growth impulse in the economy is so strong, because inflation has gotten a little bit sticky. Um, and because it's important to build credibility.
看，我们同意这条路可能不会轻松，而且我们认为最终，我们路径上的风险在于，我们必须……我们刚刚还需要两次加息。12月一次，1月一次。但风险在于更协调、更长和更强的紧缩周期，仅仅是因为经济的动能如此强劲，因为通胀变得有些粘性，而且建立信誉很重要。
So we see those that those features of the economy as meaning that it's going to be a bit harder to fight inflation. And maybe the fed had thought the past few years and that it might think now. So it's a risk they have to do a bit more. So on the underlying inflation. I mean we've got, you know, crude oil at an era 100 bucks a barrel. That's not good for inflation. John Tucker's paying for 50 a gallon at the Wawa route 36 in Jersey talks about underlying inflation.
因此，我们将这些经济特征视为意味着抗击通胀将更加困难。也许美联储在过去几年中曾这样想过，现在也可能这么想。因此，这是一个他们必须做得更多的风险。就核心通胀而言，我的意思是，你知道，原油价格处于每桶100美元的时代。这对通胀不利。约翰·塔克（John Tucker）在新泽西州36号公路的Wawa加油站支付每加仑5美元的油价，这谈到了核心通胀。
What are you seeing up there. How do you feel about it? Look at it's worse if you're a truck driver. It's 657 bucks for diesel. And that's you know, we're starting to talk about being over 200 bucks a gallon. So one of the risks to the economy that we see is that we have continued rises in energy prices. Our view has been that the economy is going to be resilient to that, so long as we don't get back to a price in inflation adjusted level like we got in 2008, which should be something like well over 200.
你在那里看到了什么？你对它有什么看法？如果你是卡车司机，情况会更糟。柴油价格是657美元。你知道，我们现在开始讨论每加仑超过200美元的情况。因此，我们看到的经济风险之一是能源价格持续上涨。我们的观点是，只要通胀调整后的价格不会回到像2008年那样的水平（那应该远高于200美元），经济将具有韧性。
And we look, we could get there. If things get worse, we're not there now. So we're think we're in good shape now. But that's a risk to monitor. We think ultimately inflation in the US is driven by momentum. And so we've had now over five years a lot of high inflation including a big surge in inflation during the pandemic reopening it. We think it's just it's just it's accumulated inertia. In order to fight that inertia, the fed might just have to push push harder into it.
我们看看，我们可能会到达那里。如果情况恶化，我们现在还没有到那里。所以我们认为我们现在状况良好。但这是一个需要监控的风险。我们认为最终美国的通胀是由惯性驱动的。因此，我们已经经历了五年多的较高通胀，包括在疫情期间重新开放时通胀的大幅飙升。我们认为这只是累积的惯性。为了对抗这种惯性，美联储可能不得不更加用力地推动。
The Fed's been hoping hoping that inflation which just repeat or out by itself without the need for for having to push back on the labor market and that might not work if it's coming to terms with that. What do you think is the biggest risk to your call? Look, we think that if you're an economist and you're worried about the risk, you're mostly worried about some kind of imbalance. And for us, for most of you, the risk was that the fed would act and the fed would let the economy overheat.
美联储一直希望通胀会自行消退或反弹，而无需对劳动力市场进行干预，但如果他们必须面对这一现实，这可能行不通。你认为对你的判断最大的风险是什么？看，如果你是一位经济学家并且担心风险，你主要担心的是某种失衡。对我们大多数人来说，风险在于美联储采取行动并让经济过热。
We get the late unemployment rate to fall too much, and then the fed would have to sort of like you jump like it'd be hit by cattle product, respond and respond to and respond excessively. And when you start seeing these big amplifying moves, that's when you worry about something. Having a recession. The fact that we're seeing the fed respond more timely now, and showing that they're on the path to stabilizing the economy, reduce that risk.
失业率下降过多，然后美联储就必须像被牛产品击中一样做出反应，过度回应。当你看到这些巨大的放大效应时，你就会担心出现衰退。事实是，我们看到美联储现在更及时地做出反应，表明他们正在稳定经济的道路上，这降低了风险。
We're worried about the war. We also think that AI is primarily driven by optimism right now. That's fine. That's a normal part of this phase of the technology cycle. But if something happens that causes people to somehow lose, lose some of that optimism about the commercialization AI, that could be a problem too. But right now, we think these risks are manageable and the consumer seems really strong, resilient. How do you view the consumer?
我们担心战争。我们还认为，目前人工智能主要由乐观情绪驱动。这没问题，这是技术周期这一阶段的正常部分。但如果发生某些事情导致人们以某种方式失去对人工智能商业化的部分乐观情绪，那也可能成为一个问题。但目前，我们认为这些风险是可控的，消费者似乎非常强劲、有韧性。你如何看待消费者？
We know there's this case shaped economy, but the just seems like the upper end of the case is kind of driving the bus here at the moment. Well there's a lot of debate about about how shaped the economy really is or whether it's any more case shape than it always has been. There is wealth and income inequality in this country, but that's not do we think the wealth gains that are coming from the stock market do accrue to more affluent people, but that it seems to be working through to the rest of the economy.
我们知道经济呈现这种‘K型’复苏的态势，但看起来目前主要是K型上端在主导局面。关于经济究竟有多大的‘K型’特征，或者它是否比以往任何时候都更具‘K型’特征，存在很多争论。这个国家确实存在财富和收入不平等，但我们认为，来自股市的财富增值似乎并非主要惠及富裕人群，而是正在传导至经济的其余部分。
So, so long as people have a job, they're comfortable that the other job is going to be stable and and the market remains resilient. We think the consumer will remain resilient as well. When you're viewing the direction for especially how much the EI prospects are contributing to GDP, if a lot of those companies are obviously tapping the debt markets to spend more, if they're pulling back on that, potentially depending on where the rate cycle is for hiking, how does that then potentially slow economic growth?
因此，只要人们有工作，并且对另一份工作的稳定性感到安心，同时市场保持韧性，我们认为消费者也将保持韧性。当你特别关注EI（企业投资）前景对GDP的贡献程度时，如果许多公司显然通过债务市场融资以增加支出，而它们随后缩减此类行为，那么在加息周期所处的不同阶段，这可能会如何潜在地减缓经济增长？
So first of all, I talked to quite a few clients in the data center and hyperscalers space. Like we're a big institution and I'm not hearing that. So what I'm hearing is that people are very optimistic on the demand for compute, on the commercial demand for AI applications. And yes, rates are going up. They see that they've been trying to get ahead of that the past few months with supply, with issuance, but that that's not going to derail their plans.
首先，我与数据中心和超大规模云服务商领域的不少客户进行了交流。作为一家大型机构，我并未听到相反的声音。我所听到的是，人们对计算需求以及AI应用的商业需求非常乐观。是的，利率正在上升。他们看到自己在过去几个月里试图通过供应和发行来抢占先机，但这并不会打乱他们的计划。
So ultimately we think that the the AI cycle is robust to this. That may be a reason the fed has to do more. Because if the Fed's objective actually is to sort of take a little bit of the punchbowl away for the old England, because the Martin quote that they, they may have to take a little bit more of the punchbowl away to get people to chill out a little bit. So that's more the risk is that there's not enough response and the fed has to do more.
因此，我们最终认为，AI周期对此具有韧性。这可能是美联储需要采取更多行动的原因之一。因为如果美联储的目标实际上是像马丁（Martin）引用的那样，稍微从宴会上拿走一点‘ punchbowl ’（指降温/抑制过热），那么他们可能需要拿走更多，让人们冷静下来。所以更大的风险在于反应不足，导致美联储不得不采取更多措施。
The ten year Treasury yield 4.955%. Is that kind of the new normal. And is that okay. So our view for a while has been that we are going into a period of prolonged high growth. And and that means that the neutral rate or the rate that the fed has to maintain on average over time is going to be higher. That means that we're going to be in a higher rate environment. Another way of putting it is if you want 90s type growth, you might have to have 90s type rates.
十年期国债收益率为4.955%。这算是新常态吗？这样可以接受吗？我们一段时间以来的观点是，我们将进入一段长期高增长的时期。这意味着中性利率或美联储在一段时间内平均必须维持的利率将会更高。这意味着我们将处于一个高利率环境。换一种说法，如果你想要90年代那种类型的增长，你可能就需要承受90年代那种类型的利率。
And that's some of that is getting priced in. I think some of my basic clients are starting to think about worst, the ten year versus the 30 year be in a world record. So productivity growth is going to be really high. So look, there's there's some room for a rally here, here and there. We think the fed is showing some credibility. We might have some stabilization in the war at some point hopefully. Um, those things would be good for the ten year.
其中一些因素正在被定价。我认为我的一些基础客户开始考虑最坏的情况，即十年期与三十年期国债收益率差可能创下历史新高。因此，生产力增长将会非常高。所以你看，这里那里还有一些反弹的空间。我们认为美联储正在展现一定的可信度。我们希望战争局势最终能实现某种程度的稳定。嗯，这些因素对十年期国债都是利好。
But ultimately we don't think going back to a much lower level of rates, we think we're not high growth environment.
但最终我们认为利率不会回到非常低的水平，我们认为我们并非处于高增长环境。
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