跳到主内容
@wquguru

特朗普与丹麦达成格陵兰安全协议,沙特输油管道遇袭致柴油创纪录

Bloomberg This Weekend | Gemini AI Breakout, Greenland Deal

原文
发到 X
推荐理由

涵盖地缘政治(格陵兰/关税)与能源供应链(沙特管道/柴油价格)两大核心宏观变量,直接影响全球流动性预期与大宗商品定价,建议关注相关资产波动。

DAVID: COMING UP ON "BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND," BREAK. GEMINI JOINS OPENAI, META, AND GOOGLE EXPOSING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE HACKS.

大卫:接下来是《彭博周末》的预告。Gemini 加入 OpenAI、Meta 和 Google,揭露人工智能漏洞。

WE SHOULD GO AS FAST AS WE CAN, IRRESPECTIVE OF ANYONE ELSE. CHRISTINA: PLUS, AN AGREEMENT OF GREENLAND.

我们应该尽可能快地行动,不管其他人的意见如何。克里斯蒂娜:此外,还有关于格陵兰岛的协议。

IT IS A VICTORY FOR DENMARK BECAUSE IT PROBABLY MEANS HE IS GOING TO STOP THREATENING TO POTENTIALLY MILITARILY INVADE GREENLAND. CHRISTINA: BUT IT MAY NOT BE A DONE DEAL. WE WILL SPEAK TO AN INVESTOR. DAVID: AND SEARCHING FOR COMMON GROUND. UTAH'S REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR JOINS US LIVE AS VOTING GETS UNDERWAY. CHRISTINA: HAPPY SATURDAY. WELCOME TO "BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND." I'M CHRISTINA RUFFINI. DAVID: I'M DAVID GURA, ALONGSIDE LISA MATEO.

这对丹麦来说是一场胜利,因为这很可能意味着他将停止威胁可能军事入侵格陵兰岛。克里斯蒂娜:但这可能尚未最终敲定。我们将采访一位投资者。大卫:并寻找共同点。犹他州共和党州长在我们开始投票时现场连线。克里斯蒂娜:周六快乐。欢迎收看《彭博周末》。我是克里斯蒂娜·鲁菲尼。大卫:我是大卫·古拉,与丽莎·马特奥一起。

WELCOME TO OUR LISTENERS AND VIEWERS ACROSS ALL BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS. A CASCADE OF NEWS OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE HEARD ABOUT GREENLAND. IT SOUNDS WE HAVE A REVOLUTION, ALTHOUGH WE DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH HAS CHANGED AS A RESULT OF WHAT HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED. CHRISTINA: I REACHED OUT TO SOME NORDIC SOURCES QUITE LATE THEIR TIME LAST NIGHT AND INITIALLY THEY SAID, YES, IT SOUNDS LIKE IT IS DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE, BUT THE U.S.

欢迎所有彭博平台的听众和观众。周五下午白宫传来一连串新闻。我们听到了关于格陵兰岛的消息。听起来我们迎来了一场革命,尽管我们还不知道宣布的事项带来了多少实际变化。克里斯蒂娜:我昨晚很晚才联系了一些北欧消息人士,起初他们说,是的,这听起来与我们已知的有所不同,但美国

COULD ALREADY PUT WHATEVER MILITARY BASES THEY WANT THEIR. THERE ISN'T THAT MUCH FINANCIAL INVESTMENT FROM PLACES LIKE RUSSIA YET, BUT WE HAVE TO SEE WHAT IS CODIFIED, AND IT HAS TO BE APPROVED BY THEIR PARLIAMENT. DAVID: SHE HAS NORDIC SOURCES. I JUST WANT TO UNDERSCORE THAT. THAT IS INCREDIBLE. CHRISTINA: I DON'T ALWAYS HAVE USEFUL SOURCES, BUT THERE ARE SMALL POCKETS. DAVID: IN THIS CASE, VERY GOOD. LET'S GET A CHECK OF THE HEADLINES HERE WITH LISA.

可能已经可以随意建立他们想要的任何军事基地。来自俄罗斯等地的金融投资目前还不多,但我们必须看到哪些内容被正式确定,并且需要得到其议会的批准。大卫:她有北欧消息人士。我只是想强调这一点。这太不可思议了。克里斯蒂娜:我并非总是有可靠的消息源,但确实有一些小圈子。大卫:在这种情况下,非常好。让我们通过丽莎来快速浏览一下头条新闻。

LISA: GOOD MORNING. LET'S START WITH THIS IN WASHINGTON. THOUSANDS OF PROTESTERS TOOK TO THE JOHN F. KENNEDY SENATOR LAST NIGHT -- CENTER LAST NIGHT. THE PRESIDENT, WHO HAD BEEN FIGHTING TO HAVE HIS NAME PLACED ON THE BUILDING, HAS THREATENED TO TEAR IT DOWN. THE KENNEDY CENTER BOARD VOTED TUESDAY TO CLOSE THE CENTER INDEFINITELY FOR REPAIRS HOURS AFTER A DISTRICT JUDGE BLOCKED THEIR PLANS TO RETURN TRUMP'S NAME TO THE FACILITY.

丽莎:早上好。让我们从华盛顿的这起事件开始。数千名抗议者昨晚走上肯尼迪中心——昨晚的中心。这位总统曾努力争取让自己的名字出现在这座建筑上,甚至威胁要将其拆毁。周二,肯尼迪中心董事会投票决定无限期关闭该中心进行维修,此前不久一名地区法官阻止了他们将特朗普的名字重新放回设施的计划。

PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS BUSY YESTERDAY MAKING A NUMBER OF ANNOUNCEMENTS INCLUDING THE U.S. REACHING A SECURITY DEAL WITH GREENLAND. IN A SOCIAL MEDIA POST, THE PRESIDENT SAID HIS ADMINISTRATION REACHED AN AGREEMENT WITH DENMARK, GIVING THE U.S. PERMANENT CONTROL OVER SECURITY FOR GREENLAND. THE LEADERS OF DENMARK AND GREENLAND SAY THEY EXPECT THE PACT TO BE SIGNED LAST -- NEXT WEEK. THEY ALSO SIGNED A RUSSIAN SANCTIONS BILL INTO LAW.

特朗普总统昨天忙于发布多项公告,包括美国与格陵兰岛达成安全协议。总统在社交媒体帖子中表示,他的政府已与丹麦达成协议,使美国永久控制格陵兰岛的安全事务。丹麦和格陵兰岛的领导人表示,他们预计该协定将于下周签署。他们还签署了一项对俄制裁法案成为法律。

THE MOVE ALLOWS HIM TO OPPOSE TARIFFS ON COUNTRIES THAT PURCHASE RUSSIAN CONTROL -- PETROLEUM PRODUCTS. U.S. ALLIES LIKE TURKEY MAY BE AFFECTED. OPPONENTS ARGUE IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO TARIFFS ON THE ENTIRE EUROPEAN UNION. IT IS AN HONOR THAT STRIKES AT THE HEART OF THE FIRST AMENDMENT. IN A SOCIAL MEDIA POST, PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID SEE AS -- CNN, MS NOW, AND POLITICO ARE BANNED FROM THE WHITE HOUSE EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY DUE TO WHAT HE CALLED UNFAVORABLE COVERAGE.

此举使他有权对购买俄罗斯控制的石油产品的国家征收关税。土耳其等美国盟友可能会受到影响。反对者认为,这可能为对整个欧盟征收关税打开大门。这是对第一修正案核心的挑战。在社交媒体帖子中,特朗普总统表示,鉴于其所谓的不利报道,CNN、MSNBC 和 Politico 即日起被禁止进入白宫。

THE PRESIDENT DEFENDED HIS DECISION DURING A PRESS CONFERENCE YESTERDAY.

总统在昨天的新闻发布会上为其决定进行了辩护。

IT IS CUMULATIVE. OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. YOU GET SICK OF IT. LISA: THE PRESIDENT THREATENED TO BAR OTHER OUTLETS FROM THE EXECUTIVE MANSION. FROM A PRESS BAN TO HEALTH CARE. PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCED ALL 50 STATES WILL JOIN A PROGRAM TO PROVIDE A MORE COMPETITIVE PRICING FOR SOME MEDICAID DRUGS. HE CLAIMS THE PLAN WILL SAVE BILLIONS ON PRESCRIPTION DRUG COSTS.

这是累积性的。在过去的几年里,你对此感到厌倦。丽莎:总统威胁要禁止其他媒体机构进入行政官邸。从新闻禁令到医疗保健,特朗普总统宣布所有50个州将加入一项计划,为某些医疗补助(Medicaid)药物提供更具竞争力的价格。他声称该计划将在处方药成本上节省数十亿美元。

THIS WAS -- THIS WILL SAVE STATES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS A YEAR IN DRUGS. IT WILL ALLOW THEM TO INVEST IN PROVIDING BETTER HEALTH CARE AND BETTER QUALITY SERVICE WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. LISA: JAMIESON GREER WILL NOW JOIN SCOTT BESSENT IN TALKS WITH CHINESE OFFICIALS IN NEW YORK TOMORROW. IT COMES AHEAD OF THE MEETING BETWEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP AND XI JINPING ON THURSDAY IN WASHINGTON. THE WHITE HOUSE WILL RELEASE AN ITINERARY ON WEDNESDAY.

这将——这将为各州每年在药品方面节省数十亿美元。它将使它们能够投资于提供更好的医疗保健和更高质量的服务,以造福美国人民。丽莎:贾米森·格里尔将于明天与斯科特·贝森特在纽约与中国官员进行会谈。这是在特朗普总统与习近平主席于周四在华盛顿举行会晤之前。白宫将于周三发布行程表。

PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL GREET XI AND HIS WIFE AS THEY ARRIVE AT JOINT BASE ANDREWS. THEY WILL HOLD A MEETING DURING THE DAY, FOLLOWED BY A STATE DINNER. FRIDAY, THE TRUMPS WILL HOST THEM FOR TEA BEFORE THEY DEPART. DAVID: WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS WITH TOM KEENE YESTERDAY. THE PAGEANTRY OF GOING TO JOINT BASE ANDREWS TO GREET THE PLANE, SOMETHING HE CLEARLY LIKES. I'M NOT SURE IF IT HAPPENED THE LAST TIME HE WENT TO BEIJING.

特朗普总统将在习近平及其妻子抵达安德鲁斯联合基地时迎接他们。他们将在白天举行会议,随后举行国宴。周五,特朗普夫妇将在他们离开前为他们举办茶会。大卫:我们昨天在和汤姆·基恩讨论这件事。去安德鲁斯联合基地迎接飞机的排场,显然他很喜欢这一点。我不确定上次他去北京时是否也发生了这种情况。

CHRISTINA: HE NOTICES WHEN THE LEADER DOESN'T SHOW UP AT THE TARMAC. I ASSUME HE IS MAKING AN EFFORT TO DO THAT. DAVID: OVERNIGHT, GAS AND DIESEL PRICES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD CLIMB EVEN AS OIL PRICES HAVE EASED. A GALLON OF REGULAR GAS IS NOW JUST A FEW CENTS OFF FROM THE HIGHS WE SAW IN MAY. DIESEL FUEL HIT ANOTHER RECORD, ALMOST $6.50 A GALLON. CHRISTINA: IN EUROPE, THERE IS CONCERN ABOUT THE OIL SUPPLY WITH FUEL DISRUPTIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA.

克里斯蒂娜:当领导人没有出现在停机坪时,他会注意到。我假设他在努力这样做。大卫:隔夜,尽管油价有所缓和,汽油和柴油价格继续攀升。普通汽油的价格现在距离我们在五月看到的高点仅差几分钱。柴油燃料创下另一项纪录,每加仑接近6.50美元。克里斯蒂娜:在欧洲,人们担心阿拉伯半岛两侧的燃料中断会影响石油供应。

JOINING US IS CHRIS KENNEDY. I BELIEVE YOU'RE JOINING US FROM WASHINGTON. IF NOT, PLEASE CORRECT US. YOU HAVE WRITTEN THIS ARTICLE CALLED "A TALE OF TWO STRAITS," WHICH IS MORE CLEVER THAN MIKE SCHRODINGER'S -- THAN MY SCHRODINGER'S STRAIT. GIVE US AN IDEA OF WHAT IS MOVING, WHAT IS IT MOVING, AND IF YOU LOOK AHEAD IS EVEN POSSIBLE NOW. CHRIS: THANKS SO MUCH. I AM IN WASHINGTON AND IT IS GREAT TO JOIN YOU AGAIN. THE STORY IS SINCE THE WAR BEGAN , THERE'S BASICALLY BEEN THREE EXPORT ROUTES FOR OIL THAT IS BEING PRODUCED INSIDE THE PERSIAN GULF.

加入我们的是克里斯·肯尼迪。我相信你是在华盛顿与我们连线。如果不是,请纠正我们。你写过一篇名为《两个海峡的故事》的文章,这比迈克·薛定谔的——比我薛定谔的海峡更巧妙。让我们了解一下正在发生什么、是什么在移动,以及展望未来是否现在仍有可能。克里斯:非常感谢。我在华盛顿,很高兴再次加入你们。故事是这样的,自战争开始以来,从波斯湾生产的石油基本上有三条出口路线。

THAT IS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, WHICH WAS DISRUPTED EARLY, AND TO BYPASS ROUTES. THE BYPASS ROUTE THROUGH THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, AND WHAT WE ARE TOM MARINO, WHICH IS THE EAST-WEST PIPELINE THAT GOES THROUGH SAUDI ARABIA. OVER THE COURSE OF THE CONFLICT, THAT PORT AND THAT PIPELINE HAD BECOME MORE IMPORTANT. IN AUGUST, THE PIPELINE ACCOUNTED FOR ABOUT 4 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF EXPORTS. THAT IS UP FROM ABOUT ONE MILLION BARRELS A DAY PRIOR TO THE WAR.

那就是霍尔木兹海峡,它早期就受到了干扰,以及绕行路线。通过阿联酋的绕行路线,以及我们所说的Tom Marino,这是一条贯穿沙特阿拉伯的东西向管道。在整个冲突过程中,该港口和该管道变得更为重要。8月份,该管道的出口量约为每天400万桶。这高于战前每天约100万桶的水平。

THAT IS ALMOST 30% OF TOTAL EXPORTS FROM THE PERSIAN GULF. SO, THE ATTACK ON THIS PIPELINE IS A SERIOUS HIT TO THE ABILITY TO MOVE BARRELS OUT OF THE PERSIAN GULF. THAT IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW. WE ARE SEEING SAUDI IS TELLING EUROPEAN COUNTRIES THEY ARE GOING TO BE MISSING DELIVERIES NEXT MONTH THAT THEY HAVE CONTRACTED. IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW LONG THIS DISRUPTION WILL LAST. SAUDI ARABIA CLAIMS THEY WILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME PRODUCTION OR SOME MOVEMENT THROUGH THE PIPELINE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT IT COULD TAKE A MONTH OR MORE TO FULLY REPAIR THE PIPELINE.

这几乎占波斯湾总出口量的30%。因此,对该管道的袭击是对将原油移出波斯湾能力的严重打击。这就是我们现在看到的。我们看到沙特告诉欧洲国家,他们下个月将无法交付已签约的数量。现在说这种中断会持续多久还为时过早。沙特阿拉伯声称他们将在未来几天内恢复部分生产或通过管道的运输,但完全修复管道可能需要一个月或更长时间。

LONGER TERM, I THINK THIS CREATES ANOTHER RISK. WE HAVE SEEN FLOWS THROUGH THE PIPELINE CAN BE DISRUPTED BY ATTACKS FROM IRAN-ALIGNED GROUPS IN IRAQ AND YEMEN. IT IS ANOTHER RISK TO THE OVERALL OUTPUT FOR THE REGION. DAVID: IT IS TIME FOR OUR WEEKLY SEGMENT ON THE REFINING CRISIS. WE GOT NEWS, I WAS ON AIR WHEN WE LEARNED THAT EUROPE WILL RECEIVE A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CRUDE IN THE MONTH AHEAD FROM SAUDI ARABIA.

从长期来看,我认为这带来了另一个风险。我们已经看到,来自伊拉克和也门亲伊朗团体的袭击可以中断管道流量。这是对地区整体产量的另一大风险。大卫:是我们每周关于炼油危机的环节时间了。我们收到了新闻,当我在广播中得知,沙特阿拉比亚洲将在未来几个月向欧洲提供相当大量的原油时。

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR EUROPE AND THE GLOBAL ENERGY PICTURE MORE BROADLY? CHRIS: AS YOU MENTIONED, THE REAL CRUNCH RIGHT NOW IS ON THESE OIL PRODUCTS, REFINED PRODUCTS, DIESEL, GASOLINE. BUT DIESEL IS THE BIG ONE. DIESEL ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT 30% OF OIL OUTPUT , AND PRIMARILY DIESEL, WHICH IS THE WORKFORCE OF THE ECONOMY AS TRANSPORTATION FUEL. WE ARE AT RECORD HIGHS IN THE U.S.. BUT THIS IS REALLY A GLOBAL CHALLENGE. EUROPEANS ARE GOING TO BE FACING A CRUNCH.

这对欧洲乃至更广泛的全球能源格局意味着什么?克里斯:正如你提到的,目前的真正瓶颈在于这些石油产品,即精炼产品,柴油、汽油。但柴油是最大的问题。柴油约占石油产量的30%,而主要是柴油,它是作为交通运输燃料的经济劳动力。我们在美国处于历史最高水平。但这确实是一个全球性挑战。欧洲人将面临紧张局面。

IF THEY CANNOT GET CRUDE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST TO RUN INTO THEIR REFINERIES ENTERED INTO DIESEL AND OTHER PRODUCTS, THEY WILL BE PULLING MORE FROM THE U.S.. WE SAW LAST WEEK THE U.S. WAS TOUCHING RECORD CRUDE EXPORTS. WE EXPECT THAT PRESSURE TO CONTINUOUS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD LOOK FOR ALTERNATIVE SUPPLIES FOR CRUDE. FOR THE TIME BEING, WE ARE NOT REALLY SEEING THIS CRUNCH ON DIESEL ALLEVIATING. THE PRICE INCREASE HAS SLOWED A LITTLE BIT BUT YOU MENTIONED WE ARE AT A RECORD HIGH IN THE U.S.

如果他们无法从中东获取原油来供应其炼油厂生产柴油和其他产品,他们将从美国增加采购。我们上周看到美国的原油出口触及纪录高位。我们预计这种压力将持续,促使各国寻找替代的原油供应来源。目前,我们并未真正看到柴油紧缺状况得到缓解。价格上涨速度略有放缓,但你提到美国的价格仍处于历史高位。

AND THAT IS REALLY THE STORY AROUND THE WORLD RIGHT NOW. CHRISTINA: I WILL ADMIT, I DON'T NORMALLY READ JP MORGAN COMMODITIES REPORTS, BUT ONE DID CATCH MY EYE THIS WEEK. THEIR COMMODITIES TEAM SAID IT IS NO LONGER OFFERING FORECASTS FOR WHEN IT THINKS THE WAR MIGHT END. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE

而这正是当前全球面临的局面。克里斯蒂娜:我承认,我通常不阅读摩根大通(JPMorgan)的商品报告,但本周有一份引起了我的注意。他们的商品团队表示,不再提供关于战争可能何时结束的预测。这是自……以来首次出现这种情况。

原文超出正文长度上限,此处截断——上游还有内容,完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。

更进一步:量化金融体系

看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力

进入量化体系 →

相似阅读

关联信息,但可能不是同一事件