摩根大通称无法预测石油市场终局

You've written this article, called a tale of two straights, which I think is, clever and slightly more clever than my Schrodinger's straight I've been trying to make happen. But can you please explain to us what is going on? Just get us up to date about what's moving, what's not moving, and if there is any kind of look ahead that's even possible right now. Yeah. Thanks so much, Christine. I am in Washington, and it's great to join you again.

So the story is, you know, since the war began, there's basically been three export routes for oil that's being produced, inside the Persian Gulf. That is this, of the Strait Of Hormuz, which was disrupted early. And there's two bypass routes, the bypass route through the, United Arab Emirates, and then what we're talking about right now, which is this East West pipeline that goes to the West Coast Of Saudi Arabia through a port called Yanbu.

So over the course of the conflict, that port and that pipeline have become more important. In August, that pipeline accounted for about 4,000,000 barrels a day of exports. That's up from about 1,000,000 barrels a day prior to the war, and about that that was almost 30% of total exports from the Persian Gulf. So the attack on this pipeline is a serious hit to the ability to move barrels out of the Persian Gulf, and that's what we're seeing now.

We're seeing that Saudi is telling, European countries that they're going to be missing deliveries next month that they have contracted. It's still a little too early to say how long this disruption will last. The Saudi Arabia claims that they'll be able to get some production or some movement through the pipeline in the next few days, but it could take a month or more to fully repair the pipeline. Longer term, I think this creates another risk.

Right? We've seen now that flows through this pipeline can be disrupted by attacks from Iran aligned groups in Iraq and in Yemen. And so it's just another risk to the overall, you know, output from the region. Chris, it's time for a weekly segment on the refining crisis, the global refining crisis, and we got news yesterday. I was on air on Bloomberg Television when we heard that Europe isn't gonna receive a a pretty substantial amount of crude here in the the month ahead from Saudi Arabia.

What does that mean for for Europe and for the global energy picture more broadly? Yeah. As you mentioned, I mean, the real crunch right now is on these oil products, refined products, and diesel, gasoline, but diesel is the big one right now. So diesel accounts for about 30% of oil output goes to be produced these middle distillates or d and primarily diesel, which is sort of the workforce of the global economies as transportation fuel.

We're at, record highs in The US, but this is really a global challenge. And, you know, the Europeans, are are going to be facing a crunch. If they can't get crude from The Middle East to run into their refineries and turn into diesel and other products, they're gonna be pulling more from The US. And we saw last week that The US was again touching sort of record record crude exports. We expect that pressure to continue as, countries around the world look for alternative supplies for crude.

But for the time being, we're not really seeing this crunch on diesel alleviate. And and it's you know, the pace of price increases has slowed a little bit, but as you mentioned, we're at a record high in The US, and that's really the story around the world right now. I also wanna ask you. I mean, I will admit I don't normally read JPMorgan commodities reports, but one of them did catch my eye this week. And that's that their commodities team said, basically, it's no longer offering forecasts for when it thinks this war might end.

The quote is for the first time since the start of Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view. We simply don't know how to model the endgame. How often do you see something like that from a group like this who that is their main bread and butter is offering this guidance to investors, and how significant is that? That's a great question. I mean, I have to be honest. I've almost thrown my hands up several times over the past months as well.

But it's true. And I think in their note, they they referenced that the market is right now pricing in, about 4,000,000 barrels a day less than what we're seeing be produced globally. And so that's really reflecting this geopolitical risk, and I think it's coming from a couple different factors. There's, of course, what's happening in The Middle East. There's what's happening in Russia with continued Ukrainian attacks.

But, also, we don't know when China is really going to ramp up purchases again. All three of these things are really outside the normal bounds of what a commodities analyst would be expected to prognosticate over. Right? These are geopolitical factors that are very hard to predict. And so it's not entirely surprising, but it just tells you how, you know, how much of the global, oil market is being driven now by things that are really difficult to model.

Chris, I wanna pivot here and ask you about Greenland, which has reared its head once again with this announcement that we got from the president about this new security arrangement. And I'm drawn to a piece by your colleague, our colleague, friend of the show, Josh Wingrove, about the announcement and and one line in particular. It's unclear how the new deal materially changes the current security arrangement with Greenland.

The US has long had enormous latitude to decide troop levels on the island and has in fact been scaling back its presence there for decades. How do you see this advancing the narrative, if at all? Well, it will hopefully tamp down, some of the threats we've seen from Trump, you know, over the past twelve months, and I think that that's the real impact. I see it as basically the status quo with a few economic security commitments, you know, so Greenland won't be host to major investments from the Chinese or Russians.

I'll note that, you know, the Chinese have attempted to make big investments in Greenland's, mining sector in the past. Those haven't gone very well. It's a very difficult environment to operate in, and they've faced the same struggles that other countries have. So really don't see this as a major shift from the status quo, but if it's enough to keep, you know, the White House from, you know, continuously, you know, making these threats or alluding to the possibility of taking over Greenland, I think that overall, that's probably good for the Transatlantic relationship.