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日本央行加息25基点,两名委员反对

Japan's Central Bank Hikes Rates in Split Decision

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日本央行货币政策决议已落地,关键参数(加息幅度、投票结果)明确,直接影响日元汇率与债券定价,建议交易员重点关注行长发布会细节及汇率波动。

THIS IS BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE. I AM STEPHEN CARROLL. THE BANK OF JAPAN RAISES RATES AT THE FASTEST PACE SINCE 1990. SIGNALS ON WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. ASIAN STOCKS AND BONDS RISE AS FALLING OIL PRICES EASE INFLATION CONCERNS AND LIFT RISK APPETITE. EUROPE'S FINANCE MINISTER AND CENTRAL BANK GOVERNORS MEET IN DUBLIN. WE SPEAK WITH THE KEY DECISION-MAKERS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WELCOME ALONG TO A REALLY BUSY SHOW. AS WE LOOK AHEAD TO THE MARKET MOVE THAT WE ARE WATCHING TODAY.

WE HAVE THE RISK EVENTS TO LOOK OUT FOR. MAKE A TWO TO FIVE RISING AFTER THE BANK OF JAPAN RATE HIKE WHICH HAD BEEN EXPECTED. EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES POINTING LOWER. U.S. EQUITY FUTURES MOVING HIGHER AFTER WE HAD THE S&P 500. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE OTHER ASSETS WE ARE FOLLOWING FOR YOU THIS MORNING AS WE FLIP THE BOARD AND TAKE A LOOK AT THE JAPANESE YEN. AROUND THE 157 HANDLE AFTER THE WEAKEST IT'S BEEN IN THE SESSION SINCE THE RATE DECISION.

WE WILL LOOK AHEAD TO THE PRESS CONFERENCE LATER IN TERMS OF JD B’'S. WE ARE SEEING A CURVE STEEPENING AS WE LOOK AHEAD TO THE PAST CONFERENCE AND TREASURIES HOLDING ONTO YESTERDAY'S GAINS AS WELL. THE 10 YEAR YIELD PRETTY STEADY THIS MORNING AND TRADING. A LOOK AHEAD. THE BANK OF JAPAN PREF -- PRESS CONFERENCE 90 MINUTES FROM NOW. LATER ON, U.S. INDUSTRIAL DATA. THE EURO GROUP MEETING. THAT'S ALL TO COME. [MUSIC PLAYING] LET'S SEE HOW ASIAN MARKETS ARE FARING TO START WITH WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG.

GOOD MORNING STEPHEN. HAPPY FRIDAY FOR ASIAN MARKETS TODAY. ASIAN STOCKS AND BONDS ALL RISING ON THE LOWER OIL PRICES. LOWER GLOBAL BOND YIELDS. THE TECH HEAVY GAUGES HERE IN THE REGION LEADING GAINS TODAY. KOSPI INDEX UP 2.7 PERCENT. SUPPORTED BY BULLISH COMMENTS FROM NVIDIA'S JENSEN HUANG THAT NVIDIA IS LIKELY GOING TO SEE ITS TRIP SALES DOUBLE IN THE COMING YEAR. A LOOK CROSS ASSET. WE HAVE THE CHINESE EN STRENGTHENING TO THE STRONGEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN FOUR YEARS.

ROSSIGNOL 6.7 LEVEL AFTER THE PBOC STRANDED -- TRENDED IT'S FIXING FOR AN EIGHTH SESSION. AHEAD OF THE MEETING BETWEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP AND XI EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HOW UNDERVALUED THE YEN IS. A LOT OF OTHER FOCUS ON THE AI DISCUSSION AS WELL AS TARIFFS. WHEN IT COMES TO THE FLIP SIDE OF THINGS, THE WEAKNESS IS IN THE JAPANESE YEN. EXTENDING LOSSES TO PASS THE 157 LEVEL AGAINST THE DOLLAR.

WE DID HAVE THE BANK OF JAPAN RAISING RATES AS EXPECTED BUT REALLY, THE SURPRISE PART IS THE TWO DISSENTS AND THAT SIGNALS TO INVESTORS THAT IT'S REALLY NOT AS HAWKISH AS WHAT INVESTORS HAVE BEEN EXPECTING. THAT'S WHY WE ARE SEEING THE TWO YEAR YIELD FALLING. THE CURVE CONTINUING TO STEEPEN. WE WILL WATCH OUT FOR THE PRESSER LATER TODAY. BACK TO YOU. STEPHEN: WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. THANK YOU SO MUCH. LET'S STAY WITH THE BANK OF JAPAN.

RAMPING UP THE PACE OF HIKES TO THE FASTEST AND 36 YEARS. THE QUARTER-POINT MOVE WAS WIDELY EXPECTED. THE YEN WEAKENING FURTHER AFTER THE DECISION AS WE LOOK AHEAD TO THE PRESS CONFERENCE FROM THE GOVERNOR COMING AHEAD. LET'S GO LIVE TO TOKYO. GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US. WE GOT THE HYPE WE WERE -- HIKE WE WERE EXPECTING. MARKETS ARE LOOKING AT THE VOTE IN PARTICULAR.

THE VOTE WAS COMING FROM THE BOJ BOARD MEMBERS. REFLATION IS MEMBERS APPOINTED BY MR. TOK I.E. SHE. THAT LED TO THE IMPRESSION THAT THIS IS A DOVISH RATE HIKE. THE STATEMENT EDITS -- ITSELF LEADING TO THE IMPRESSION THAT WE MIGHT SEE ACCELERATED HIKES. THE PACE SO FAR HAS BEEN ONE RATE HIKE EVERY SIX MONTHS. THIS ONE, THE FASTEST PACE SINCE MARCH OF 1990. THE SECOND HIKE IN THREE MONTHS. MEMBER SATO SINGING THAT PRICE OURS -- PRICES ARE NOT ACCELERATING LIKE BEFORE.

CPI BELOW 2%. AUGUST INFLATION DATA SHOWING A SLOW DOWN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FOUR MONTHS. STILL, DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES ARE THERE. THEY TALK ABOUT THE RISKS TO THE BASELINE INCLUDING THE MIDDLE EAST AND A HIGH DEMAND. BOTH OF THEM COULD BE INFLATIONARY FOR THIS ECONOMY. OFFICIALS WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISING. THAT'S LEADING TO VOLATILITY NOT OPEN -- ONLY IN THE JAPANESE YEN BUT ALSO JGB'S. CURVE STEEPENING WITH LONG AND YIELDS FALLING.

THE LONG -- THE SHORT AND FALLING AND THE LONG AND ACTUALLY RISING. WE ALSO HAVE PHYSICAL CONCERNS TO CONTEND WITH. STEPHEN: WHAT SHOULD WE BE WATCHING FOR AT GOVERNOR UEDA'S PRESS CONFERENCE IN 90 MINUTES TIME? SHERY: HOW HE CHARACTERIZES INFLATION WILL BE KEY. WE SAW IN JULY HOW HE TWEAKED GUIDANCE AROUND UPSIDE INFLATION RISKS. THE LANGUAGE WAS COUCHED SO FAR THAT PEOPLE WEREN'T RECOGNIZING HOW HAWKISH HE WAS. GOVERNOR UEDA IS AN ACADEMIC.

HE TENDS TO TALK ABOUT THEORIES OR GIVE OUT ANSWERS THAT MAY NOT BE WELL UNDERSTOOD BY THE MARKET. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE HOW HE CHARACTERIZES THE RATE HIKE. BEFORE GOING INTO THE RATE DECISION, ABOUT 90% OF ANALYSTS WERE EXPECTING ANOTHER RATE HIKE BEFORE JANUARY. HOW WE WILL COME OUT OF THIS GOVERNOR UEDA CONFERENCE IS ANYBODY'S GUESS. THE HAWKISH FEDERAL RESERVE ALREADY PRESSURED THE YEN ON WEDNESDAY. WILL WE SEE MORE PRESSURE ON THE CURRENCY?

WE HAVE ALSO SEEN A LOT OF VOLATILITY COMING FROM STRENGTH EARLIER IN THE MONTH. REMEMBER WHEN THE YEN WAS GOING TOWARDS 152? THE STRONGEST WAS 152.89 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. THAT WAS WHEN WE HAD THESE EXTORT MARY MOVES BY THE UNITED STATES TO TRY TO EXERT SOME INFLUENCE IN WHERE THE NORMALIZATION PATH GOES IN JAPAN. SECRETARY BESSENT SAYING HE WAS THE HOUSE, THAT HE WAS SURE THAT OFFICIALS HERE IN JAPAN WOULD DO THE RIGHT THING WHEN IT CAME TO RATES.

OF COURSE, WE COULDN'T FORGET THAT PRESSURE. THE BOJ FEELING THE PRESSURE AHEAD OF THIS DECISION. STEPHEN: OK. ALL EYES ON THE PRESS CONFERENCE. SHERY AHN IN TOKYO. THANK YOU FOR BRINGING US UP-TO-DATE. TREASURIES HOLDING ON TO THEIR GAINS FOLLOWING OIL PRICES, BOOSTING THE CREDIBILITY OF KEVIN WARSH. LET'S BRING IN DAVID SAVAGE FOR MORE ON THE PICTURE IN MARKETS. OVERALL, THE WEEK SEEMS TO BE ENDING ON A MORE POSITIVE NOTE FOR BONDS DESPITE A WARNING FROM JEFFREY GUNDLACH WHO IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FISCAL CONCERNS DOWN THE LINE.

DAVID: YEAH. THAT'S RIGHT. THE FED CAME OUT MUCH MORE HAWKISH THAN I THINK MARKETS HAD EXPECTED. CERTAINLY THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED ONLY A FEW WEEKS AGO. YOU SEE MARKETS ARE ALREADY PRICING AT LEAST TWO MORE HIKES IN THE COMING SIX MONTHS. BUT AS IS THE CASE TODAY AND AS IS THE CASE MOVING FORWARD, OIL PRICES HOLD THE SWING VOTE ON WHERE YIELDS ARE MOVING. THE PULLBACK IN CRUDE PRICES HAS DEFINITELY HELPED. AS YOU NOTED, CERTAINLY A MORE HAWKISH FED HELPED SOLIDIFY SOME CREDIBILITY IN TERMS OF THE WILLINGNESS TO FIGHT INFLATION AND TAKE THAT PART OF THE MANDATE SERIOUSLY.

STEPHEN: OK. WE HAVE A TRIO OF CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS OUT OF THE WAY FOR NOW. THE BANK OF JAPAN STILL UNFOLDING BUT THE MARKETS ALSO LOOKING BACK AT THOSE A HIGH FUNDAMENTALS. -- THOSE AI FUNDAMENTALS. HOW ARE THINGS AT THE MOMENT IN THAT TRADE? DAVID: OVERNIGHT, THERE WAS QUITE A FEW POSITIVE TECH LEADS. NOSE -- MOST NOTABLY JENSEN HUANG SAYING THAT THEY EXPECTED, PROJECTED CHIP SALES TO DOUBLE NEXT YEAR. CERTAINLY WE SAW A LOT OF STRENGTH IN NVIDIA SHARES, IN CHIP DESIGNERS AND U.S.

MEMORY STOCKS. A LOT OF THAT IS CARRYOVER INTO THE ASIA SESSION AS WELL. SOUTH KOREA'S COPY -- KOSPI INDEX. JAPANESE STOCKS. SOME OF THESE AI SUPPLY CHAIN NAMES IN JAPAN HAVE DONE QUITE WELL TODAY AND EXTENDED THOSE GAINS AFTER THE BOJ. SO CERTAINLY THOSE NAMES THERE ARE LIKING THE PROSPECT OF A MORE GRADUAL BOJ POLICY RATE NORMALIZATION AND THE PROSPECT OF A WEAKER YEN. STEPHEN: THIS HAS BEEN PART OF THE STORY THAT'S BEEN FEEDING INTO THE SELLOFF GLOBALLY AND BOND MARKETS -- IN BOND MARKETS.

NOW THAT WE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS, DO THOSE DYNAMICS MOVE BACK TO BEING MORE DOMINANT? DAVID: YEAH. I THINK SO. THE CROSSOVER BETWEEN EQUITY MARKETS AND CREDIT MARKETS AND SOVEREIGN DEBT MARKETS IS BECOMING MORE ACUTE. THE AI BUILDOUT IS INCREASINGLY BEING FUELED BY DEBT ISSUANCE. SO THAT EVERY CORPORATE ISSUANCE IS STARTING TO LEAK OVER INTO THIS COMPETITION FOR CAPITAL. SO THAT WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD SEE POTENTIALLY H

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