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美联储一致加息,核心算力公司CoreWeave发行300亿美元可转债

Stocks Gain in Wake of Fed

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美联储加息落地且点阵图指引明确改变利率预期,CoreWeave巨额发债反映AI基建资金面动态,均为宏观与行业关键事实。建议关注利率路径对估值的影响及高息环境下的融资风险。

WE REBOUND OFF THE JULY LOWS. I'M DANI BURGER WITH DAVID GURA BLOOMBERG OPEN INTEREST STARTS RIGHT NOW. COMING UP ON THE SHOW FUTURES RALLYING ONE DAY AFTER THE FED'S UNANIMOUS RATE HIKE UNDER KEVIN WARSH. DAVID: KING CHARLES PRESS AI LEADERS ON KEEPING THE TECHNOLOGY UNDER CONTROL. DANI: LUCID TEAMING UP WITH SELF DRIVING RIDES ACROSS EUROPE. WE SPEAK TO THE CEO THIS HOUR. BROADLY STOCKS DOING BETTER. ONE THAT I'M LOOKING THAT IS NOT THAT'S COREWEAVE DOWN 2.4 IN THE PREMARKET THIS MORNING.

我们从7月低点反弹。我是达妮·伯格,与大卫·古拉一起。彭博开放式期权交易现在开始。节目接下来将报道:在美联储一致加息后,期货市场次日反弹,凯文·沃什出席。大卫:查尔斯国王敦促人工智能领袖控制该技术。达妮:Lucid与欧洲自动驾驶出行公司合作。我们将在本小时采访其首席执行官。大盘股表现较好,但我关注的一只股票并非如此——CoreWeave今早盘前下跌2.4%。

THE REASON $30 BILLION FOR CONVERTIBLE BONDS FOR AI INFRASTRUCTURE. SHARES ARE UP 4% ON THE NEWS AND THEY FALL COMING IN TO THE FACTOR OF CONVERTIBLES. DAVID: INVESTORS LOOK PAST THE FED RATE HIKE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE START OF A SUSTAINED HIKING CYCLE. THE -- IT IS EASING SOME FEARS HIGHER BORROWING COSTS COULD DERAIL THE MASSIVE SPENDING BEHIND THE AI MOVE. DANI: THE FOMC MAKES THAT UNANIMOUS DECISION HERE IS CHAIR KEVIN WARSH OF THE ANNOUNCEMENT.

原因是为AI基础设施发行300亿美元的可转换债券。消息公布后股价上涨4%,但随着可转换债券因素显现,股价回落。大卫:投资者无视美联储加息。这似乎并非持续加息周期的开始。这在一定程度上缓解了担忧,即更高的借贷成本可能会破坏人工智能巨额支出背后的动力。达妮:FOMC在此作出了一致决定,公告由主席凯文·沃什发布。

FOR GUIDANCE BUSINESS BUT THE DECISION WE MADE TODAY WAS A SOBER DECISION, A SERIOUS DECISION RESPONSIBLE DECISION. ONE THAT WE HAVE BEEN PREPARING FOR THINKING ABOUT IN MY DAYS HERE. YOU HEARD FROM OTHER PEOPLE AND THE DOTS EFFECTIVELY. WHAT THEIR FORECASTS ARE. I'M NOT GOING TO PREJUDGE ANY FUTURE DECISIONS WE MAKE. DANI: JOINING US IS BLOOMBERG'S CORRESPONDED WITH BONDS RALLYING STOCKS AS WELL HOW ARE WE INTERPRETING WHAT KEVIN WARSH SAID TO WHAT DAVID WAS SAYING.

对于指导业务而言,但我们今天做出的决定是一个清醒的决定、严肃的决定、负责任的决定。这是我在这里任职期间一直在准备和思考的。你听到了其他人的观点以及点阵图所反映的情况。他们各自的预测是什么?我不会对我们要做的任何未来决策预设立场。达妮:欢迎做客彭博社驻债市和股市反弹记者,我们如何解读凯文·沃什所说的话,这与大卫刚才所说有何关联?

THIS IS THE START OF SOMETHING OF A MODEST RATE HIKING CYCLE. MICHAEL: TAKING A PROBABLY CORRECTLY IF TWO RATE INCREASES CAN BE CONSIDERED A CYCLE. YOU TAKE A LOOK AT WHERE WE ARE GOING AND WHERE WE MAY GO ACCORDING TO THE DOT PLOT AND WE ARE UP TO 4% IN THE RANGE RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE 16 OF THE 18 PEOPLE WHO SUBMITTED DOTS, WARSH DOES NOT. LOOKING AT FOUR AND A QUARTER BY THE END OF THE YEAR. AND THEN THERE'S A MAJORITY FOR FOUR AND A HALF NEXT YEAR.

这是一轮温和加息周期的开始。迈克尔:如果两次加息可以被视为一个周期,那么这一判断可能是正确的。看看我们当前的位置以及根据点阵图可能走向的位置,目前利率范围已升至4%。在提交点阵图的18人中,有16人(沃什未提交)预计今年年底将达到4.25%。明年则有多数人支持4.5%。

SO I GUESS THAT WOULD QUALIFY AS A RETURN TO THE CYCLE. DAVID: WE'VE LEARNED FROM HISTORY OF FED CHAIR WHO DOESN'T WANT TO LOOK BACK SPACE -- HE SAID HE WANTS A PERSPECTIVE TAKE ON WHERE THINGS ARE GOING. WE HAVEN'T HAD A SHORT IN A LONG TIME. MICHAEL: I DON'T KNOW THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A ONE AND DONE. YOU HAVE TO GO BACK MANY YEARS TO WHEN WE WERE PUBLISHING THE DATA THAT WE COULD SEE SOMETHING LIKE THAT. THEY ARE SAYING THEY WANT A RETURN TO 2% BUT THAT'S NOT WHAT THE SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS IS.

所以我想这可以算作回归加息周期。大卫:我们从历任美联储主席的历史中吸取教训,他不想回顾过去——他表示希望从宏观视角看待事物走向。我们已经很久没有经历过短期内的单次加息了。迈克尔:我不记得上一次出现“一次性加息”是什么时候。你得回到很多年前,当我们发布数据时才能看到类似情况。他们说希望回归2%的目标,但这并不是经济预测摘要所反映的内容。

THEY SEE NEXT YEAR WE GET A BIG DROP BECAUSE MAYBE THE WAR ENDS AND WE HAVE THIS RESTRAINED ON THE ECONOMY. THE KNOCK AND A REACH 2% UNTIL 2029. EVERY TIME WE RELEASE A NEW S&P THEY PUSH OUT THE 2% TARGET AND THEY DID IT AGAIN. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OUT THERE WITH AI AND HOW MUCH IT'S CONTRIBUTED TO GROWTH AND THEN THE VARIOUS GROWTH SCENARIOS KEVIN WARSH FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THE ECONOMY. DAVID: ALLOW ME A FOLLOW-UP QUESTION.

他们认为明年经济会出现大幅下滑,因为战争可能结束,从而对经济产生抑制作用。冲击效应将持续至2029年,达到2%的水平。每次我们发布新的标普(S&P)数据时,他们都会推迟2%的目标,这次也不例外。目前存在大量不确定性,尤其是关于人工智能及其对增长的贡献程度,以及各种不同的增长情景。凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)对当前经济形势相当有信心。大卫:请允许我追问一个问题。

CHIEF NATIONAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY CORRESPONDENT. KING CHARLES HOSTED A NUMBER OF AI EXECUTIVES INCLUDING JENSEN HUANG AND SARAH FRIAR. CALLING ON THE INDUSTRY TO TAKE CONTROL OF ITS TECHNOLOGY. THE COMMENTS CAME AS OPENAI ANNOUNCED THERE HAD BEEN MORE INSTANCE OF ITS AI MODELS MISBEHAVING AND THE COMPANY UNVEILED A NEW FRAMEWORK FOR DISCLOSING ROGUE AGENTS. ED LUDLOW JOINS US NOW. TAKE US INTO THE ROOM IN SCOTLAND WHAT'S THE CONVERSATION LIKE.

首席国家经济与政策记者。查尔斯国王举办了一场由多位AI高管参加的会议,其中包括黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)和莎拉·弗莱尔(Sarah Friar)。他呼吁该行业掌控其技术。这些评论是在OpenAI宣布其AI模型出现更多不当行为实例,并公布了一项披露“失控代理”(rogue agents)的新框架之际发表的。埃德·卢德尔(Ed Ludlow)现在加入我们。请带我们进入苏格兰的会场,那里的对话是怎样的?

HOW DOES THIS WORK WITH THE CONVERSATION IN PLACE IN WASHINGTON DC AND THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT AMIDST THE ANXIETY ABOUT WHERE AI IS? ED: JENSEN HUANG, SARAH FRY THE CEO OF OPENAI AND DENNIS OF GOOGLE DEEPMIND WHO'S BEEN PICKED UP INTO THIS CHAIR ROLE. WHEN KING CHARLES DOES THESE MEETINGS THROUGH HIS FOUNDATION THEY ARE LARGELY SYMBOLIC. BUT HIS MESSAGE TO THOSE LEADERS IS DON'T LET AI GET OUT OF CONTROL. IN ITS PROXIMITY TO THE EVENTS OF THE LAST SEVEN DAYS AND HIS ABILITY TO GET THOSE KEY PEOPLE IN THE ROOM REALLY IMPORTANT.

在华盛顿特区正在进行对话、且人们对AI发展方向感到焦虑的背景下,政府在其中扮演何种角色?埃德:黄仁勋、OpenAI首席执行官莎拉·弗莱尔(Sarah Fry),以及谷歌DeepMind的丹尼斯(Dennis),后者已被纳入这一核心角色。当查尔斯国王通过其基金会举行此类会议时,它们 largely 具有象征意义。但他向这些领导者传达的信息是:不要让AI失控。鉴于过去七天的事件背景,以及他将这些关键人物聚集在一起的能力,这确实非常重要。

HE'S ASKING A QUESTION WHICH IS THE INDUSTRY HOW ARE YOU GOING TO CAPTURE AI BENEFITS WITHOUT -- WITH SAFETY AT TASK WITHOUT LOSING HUMANITY WHICH IS QUITE A PROFOUND THING TO ASK TO THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR. THIS IS WHAT THEY ARE THERE TO ADVOCATE FOR. AI DOES HAVE BENEFITS. DANI: THERE'S BEEN AN INCREDIBLE DOSE OF SKEPTICISM IN THE PAST WEEK OR SO SINCE THESE ANNOUNCEMENTS OF COME OUT. THIS IDEA MAYBE THEY WANT TO SLOW DOWN BECAUSE THEY CAN GET THE COMPUTE THEY NEED OR THE ECONOMIC SUSPENDING OR TAKING UP AND IT SOUNDS BETTER TO SAY YOU'RE ACTING IN AN ALTRUISTIC WAY HOW WAS THAT CONVERSATION EVOLVED ESPECIALLY AS WE CONTINUE THE ANNOUNCEMENTS.

他提出的问题是:行业将如何在确保安全的前提下获取AI的红利,而不丧失人性?这是一个向科技界提出的非常深刻的问题。这正是他们在此倡导的内容。AI确实具有益处。达妮:自这些公告发布以来的一周左右时间里,出现了难以置信的怀疑情绪。这种观点认为,他们或许希望放缓步伐,因为他们可以获得所需的算力,或者进行经济暂停或接管,而声称自己以无私的方式行事听起来更好。随着持续发布公告,这场对话是如何演变的?

WITH OPENAI SING THEIR NEW AI SAFETY INCIDENTS THAT THEY BEEN MARKETING. ED: THE BLOOMBERG HEADLINE IS THE DISCLOSURE OF OTHER INCIDENTALS WHICH WE GET INTO THE CASE STUDIES. AND THEIR DISCLOSURE PLAN. HERE'S WAS OPEN I SET -- OPENAI SAYS IT WILL DO EVERY TIME IT DISCOVERS SOMETHING THAT THE MODEL WAS PAVING. WITHIN THAT POST WHICH WAS OPENAI ONCE AGAIN ADMITTING THAT SAFETY ALIGNMENT MEANING THAT MODELS ARE BEHAVING THE WAY THAT HUMANS INTENDED TO THEM.

OpenAI 正在为其新出现的 AI 安全事件进行宣传。ED:彭博社的头条新闻披露了其他附带事件,我们将这些作为案例研究进行分析,并公布了他们的披露计划。OpenAI 表示,每次发现模型出现越狱情况时,他们都会进行披露。在这篇帖子中,OpenAI 再次承认了安全对齐问题,即模型的行为方式符合人类的预期。

IT IS NOT THERE YET. IT COULD NOT BE CLEARER IN THAT POST. SO OPENAI IS DOUBLING DOWN SAYING SAFETY HAS NOT KEPT UP THE PACE OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL'S CAPABILITIES. AND THEY WILL KEEP SAYING THAT WHILE THIS IS HOW WE WILL ADDRESS IT.

目前尚未达到这一状态。在那篇帖子中表达得再清楚不过了。因此,OpenAI 加倍强调,安全措施未能跟上模型能力发展的步伐。他们将坚持这一说法,并表示这是他们应对问题的方式。

KIND OF SWIRLING CONVERSATION AROUND FUNDING GOING FORWARD. COREWEAVE ANNOUNCING INITIAL $3 BILLION. WHAT IS THAT TELL US ABOUT THIS COMPANY'S POSITION IN THE INDUSTRY.

围绕未来融资的讨论纷纭不断。CoreWeave 宣布初始投资 30 亿美元。这告诉我们该公司在行业中的地位如何?

COREWEAVE SPECIFICALLY A SUPPLY CONSTRAINED LIKE EVERYONE ELSE. THE DEMAND FOR THEIR COMPUTE PERFORMANCE OUTPACES WHAT THEY'VE ACHIEVED BUILT IN THE REAL WORLD. SO FOR THEM CAPITAL IS JUST AN UNLOCK IT ALLOWS THEM TO GREASE THE WHEELS TO GET MORE CAPACITY ONLINE AND THAT CAPACITY IS ALREADY COMMITTED IN LARGE PART TO COMPANIES LIKE OPENAI THEY HAVE VERY LARGE CONTRACT WITH THEM. THAT'S KIND OF THE CIRCULAR FINANCING OR ARTIFICIAL DEMAND DEBATES PARDON THE EXPRESSION.

CoreWeave 和其他所有人一样,面临供应受限的问题。他们对算力的需求超出了他们在现实世界中已实现的产能。因此,资本只是一个解锁机制,它使他们能够润滑车轮,以获取更多在线容量,而这些容量在很大程度上已经承诺给了像 OpenAI 这样的公司,他们与 OpenAI 签订了大型合同。这在某种程度上引发了关于循环融资或人为需求的辩论——请原谅我使用这个措辞。

IS THAT THERE JUST ISN'T ENOUGH COMPUTE RELATIVE RIGHT NOW. LOADS OF PEOPLE USE THESE AS A MECHANISM. OTHERS JUST PURE DEBT IN COREWEAVE'S CASE THEY HAVE ALL THREE CONVERTS DEBT THAT THEY'RE DOING TO MANAGE THE CAPITAL IN ORDER TO GET IT MOVING FASTER. BUILD THE TIN CAN WE CALL A DATA CENTER.

目前的状况是算力相对不足。许多人将其作为一种机制使用。而在 CoreWeave 的案例中,其他人则纯粹依赖债务,他们同时拥有这三种工具,通过转换债务来管理资本,以便让资金流动得更快。建造我们称之为数据中心的东西。

WE ARE GOING TO SEE YOU BACK LATER THIS HOUR FOR A CONVERSATION WITH THE CEO OF LUCID ON THEIR ANNOUNCEMENT AND PARTNERSHIP OF BOLT FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES. BOEING'S LATEST WARNING CEO KELLY ORD BIRD AND THE CEO LAYING OUT A FRESH LIST OF CHALLENGES FACING THE PLANE MAKER INCLUDING DELAYS LOWER PRODUCTION CASH OUTLOOK PRINT LET'S GET THE LATEST WITH BLOOMBERG CHIEF AVIATION CORRESPONDENT, THE CLAIM YESTERDAY THIS DID SEEM A FOR MARKETS.

我们将在本小时稍后时间为您带来与 Lucid 首席执行官的对话,讨论其关于 Bolt 自动驾驶汽车的公告和合作。波音最新警告,CEO Kelly Ortberg 和另一位 CEO 列出了飞机制造商面临的一系列新挑战,包括延误、产量下降和现金流前景黯淡。让我们获取彭博社首席航空记者的最新报道,昨天这似乎对市场的冲击有限。

THE MARKETS BEEN EXPECTING THEM TO RAMP UP PRODUCTION AND RAMP THAT UP AS THEY GO INTO THE END OF THE YEAR. 47 A MONTH WAS THE MARKET EXPECTED POINT AND AT THE MOMENT GOING TO 52 AND THEN EVENTUALLY 63 A MONTH. AND THAT'S A KEY SOURCE OF CASH. BOEING COMING OUT SAYING WERE HAVING ISSUES STABILIZING AT 47. THAT BECOMES A BIT OF A CONCERN BECAUSE THE MARKETS EXPECTING THE COMPANY TO SORT OF START GENERATING CASH. AND THAT'S HOW THE BOEING GETS THE CASH IS BY DELIVERING AGAINST THE CUSTOMERS AND THEN THE CFO REITERATED SAYING THE EXPECTATION FOR CASH FLOW FREE CASH FLOW THIS YEAR IS ONE TO 3 BILLION BUT THEY EXPECTED TO BE MORE IN THE MID RANGE AND THAT BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER DELIVERIES.

市场一直预期他们将在年底之前提高产量,并逐步提升。市场预期的月产量为47架,目前正提升至52架,最终将达到每月63架。这是现金流的一个关键来源。波音表示在稳定月产47架方面存在问题。这引起了一些担忧,因为市场期望公司开始产生现金流。波音获取现金流的方式是通过向客户交付飞机,而首席财务官再次重申,今年自由现金流的预期范围为10亿至30亿美元,但由于交付速度较慢,预计将处于该范围的中段。

THAT'S RATTLED THE MARKETS AND MADE INVESTORS CONCERNED ABOUT BOEING'S PROSPECTS. DAVID: AFTER A STRING OF BAD NEWS AND BAD STORIES HE'S IN CHARGE OF THIS TURNAROUND. BY AND LARGE THE KIND OF RANGE FOR THAT HOW DOES THIS KIND OF COLOR THAT DEGREE. SIDDHARTH: IT PUTS IT IN THE CONTEXT THAT BOEING IS IN THE MIDST OF A TURNAROUND BUT IT ISN'T OVER. IT'S A MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TURNAROUND THAN INVESTORS EXPECTED AND WILL BE A LONG ROAD AHEAD.

这令市场感到不安,投资者对波音的前景表示担忧。大卫:在一系列坏消息和负面报道之后,他负责这次扭亏为盈的工作。总体而言,这种转变的范围如何?西达尔特:这表明波音正处于转型过程中,但尚未结束。这是一次比投资者预期的更艰难的转型,前路漫长。

AND IT'S GOING TO BE CHALLENGES ALONG THE WAY. AND LITTLE ISSUES CAN COME UP THAT BASICALLY HAMPER THE TURNAROUND OR DELAY THAT TURNAROUND CAN BE SEEN THAT WITH THE COMPANY TALKING BUT THE 777X SLIPPING INTO NEXT YEAR. THAT'S SOMETHING THAT IS CONCERNING. DANI: WHEN IT COMES TO CON

沿途将面临挑战。一些小问题可能会出现,基本上会阻碍或延迟这一转型过程,这一点可以从波音谈论777X项目推迟到明年看出。这令人担忧。丹尼:当涉及到……

原文超出正文长度上限,此处截断——上游还有内容,完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。

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