美国初请失业金人数降至19.6万创7月来新低
US Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since July at 196,000
就业数据与通胀指标背离，揭示宏观政策两难，建议关注美联储对劳动力与通胀权衡的最新表态。
Kevin Warsh said yesterday, we can pretty much ignore the labor market for right now, and that's what jobless claims are telling us. 196,000. That is close to the all time low again. That's down from 206,000 the week before, so nothing happening there. Now the Philadelphia Fed is also out with its index, and the the number that we care about I mean, the headline number is thirty seven eight, comes down from forty seven four, so it doesn't match what was saying about expansion.
凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）昨天表示，我们现在基本上可以忽略劳动力市场，失业救济金申请数据也印证了这一点。19.6万。这再次接近历史最低水平。此前一周为20.6万，因此该领域没有发生什么变化。现在费城联储也发布了其指数，我们关注的主要数字是37.8，从47.4下降，因此这与之前关于扩张的说法不符。
But it's prices paid and prices received that people are gonna be watching and prices received up to 31.3 versus 17.7. Those would be, like, PPI numbers. And then the prices paid index goes up to 48.6 from 40.9. So inflation is the problem in the Philadelphia Fed index. Jobs don't seem to be the problem in the country. We also have housing starts out down 2.6%. We've, fall that that is down from a nine a drop of nine, percent the prior month.
但人们将关注的是支付价格和收到价格，收到价格升至31.3，而此前为17.7。这些类似于生产者价格指数（PPI）数据。然后，支付价格指数从40.9上升至48.6。因此，通胀问题是费城联储指数中的问题。就业似乎并不是全国性的问题。此外，房屋开工数下降了2.6%。此前一个月下降了9%，本月降幅为9%。
But, the real issue is that we're not building enough houses at this point, and the interest rates are too high. But maybe we'll see the, mortgage rates come down a little bit now that we're seeing the the market, move in the yield curve flatten with the ten year note, coming down.
但真正的问题是，目前我们建设的房屋数量不足，且利率过高。但随着收益率曲线趋于平坦，十年期国债收益率下降，我们或许会看到抵押贷款利率略有下降。
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