美联储主席Warsh：通胀仍高，FOMC一致决定维持利率不变

12 MONTH CHANGE IN TOTAL PCE PRICES LIKELY WAS AROUND 3.6% IN AUGUST. CORE PCE AND CPI PRICES RUNNING AT ABOUT 3.2 AND 2.4%, RESPECTIVELY. TOO MANY CATEGORIES ARE STILL POSTING INCREASES ABOVE 3% ON BOTH A SIX AND 12 MONTH BASIS. I NOTED IN JACKSON HOLE THAT OVERALL COMMODITY PRICES ALSO BEAR WATCHING, AND OVER THE INTERVENING PERIOD, THE PRICES OF MANY OF THESE KEY INPUTS HAVE RISEN. SINCE MY FIRST FOMC MEETING AS CHAIRMAN IN JUNE, MY COLLEAGUES AND I HAVE BEEN UNEQUIVOCAL IN OUR COMMITMENT TO PRICE STABILITY AND TO OUR 2% PCE INFLATION OBJECTIVE.

AT OUR JULY MEETING, WE ALL AGREED THAT INFLATION REMAINED TOO HIGH, AND WE EXPRESSED OUR JOINT READINESS TO ACT AS CIRCUMSTANCES MIGHT REQUIRE. AND A GOOD MAJORITY OF MY COLLEAGUES AND I THOUGHT THE WISER COURSE THEN WOULD BE TO AWAIT NEW INFORMATION IN THE INTERMEETING PERIOD. LAST MONTH IN WYOMING, I EXPRESSED MY COMMITMENT TO A MONETARY POLICY DISCIPLINE, NOT TO A DECISION. I DEFINE THE STANDARD FOR ACTION. WE MUST BE CONFIDENT THAT UNDERLYING INFLATION IS MOVING TO OUR OBJECTIVE CLEARLY AND AT SUFFICIENT SPEED.

TODAY, THE FOMC DECIDED THAT THIS STANDARD HAS NOT BEEN SATISFIED. THE COMMITTEE'S UNANIMOUS VOTE SHOWS OUR RESOLVE TO ACHIEVE PRICE STABILITY ON A TIMELY BASIS. WE AIM TO ENSURE THAT CREDIT AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT OVER TIME WITH OUR MANDATE THAT RELATIVE PRICE CHANGES IN SOME SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY DO NOT BROADEN THAT INFLATION COMPENSATION IN MARKET PRICES STAYS LOW, AND THAT INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED.

THIS AFTERNOON, YOU ALSO RECEIVED THE SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS. IT REFLECTS THE VIEWS OF MY COLLEAGUES ON THE COMMITTEE. BUT AS IN JUNE, I'VE NOT OFFERED A PROJECTION OF MY OWN. BUT LIKE IN JUNE, I SAID I WOULD FAITHFULLY DISCHARGE THE SUMMARY OF THEIR PROJECTIONS. SO HERE GOES. IN THE SUMMARIES MEDIAN PROJECTIONS, REAL GDP RISES AT 2.3% THIS YEAR, 2.4% NEXT YEAR. TOTAL PCE INFLATION RUNS AT 3.7% THIS YEAR AND FALLS TO 2.3% NEXT YEAR.

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOLDS STEADY AT ABOUT 4.1%. THE MEDIAN PARTICIPANT JUDGES THAT THE APPROPRIATE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TO BE 4.1% AT THE END OF THIS YEAR, AND TO REMAIN THERE NEXT YEAR. INFLATION RISKS ARE TO THE UPSIDE. WHILE LABOR RISKS ARE ROUGHLY BALANCED. IN MY MEETINGS THESE LAST FEW WEEKS IN JACKSON HOLE IN ASHEVILLE, AT THE G20 MEETING, WHICH THE US HOSTED, AND AT A CENTRAL BANK CONFERENCE IN BASEL, IT WAS EVIDENT THAT MOST ADVANCED ECONOMIES ARE FACING PRICE PRESSURES.

THEIR CENTRAL BANKS ARE MAKING THEIR OWN JUDGMENTS CONSISTENT WITH THEIR OWN REMITS. OUR DECISION TODAY REFLECTS OUR JUDGMENT IN SERVICE TO OUR REMIT. THE FED HAS A ROLE IN SUSTAINING THE ECONOMIC PROGRESS HAPPENING IN AMERICA RIGHT NOW, AND THE RISING OPPORTUNITIES THAT COME WITH IT. THOSE WHO ARE LEAST WELL OFF HAVE THE MOST TO GAIN FROM A DURABLE EXPANSION, A SOLID LABOR MARKET, AND STABLE PRICES. WE AT THE FED ARE UNWAVERING IN OUR VITAL AND STRAIGHTFORWARD PURPOSE.

FULL EMPLOYMENT AND PRICE STABILITY, AND A THRIVING AMERICAN ECONOMY T