美财长贝森特回应债市抛售，前国务卿呼吁AI监管
Trump Defends AI Amid Voter Unease
美债收益率创七年新高直击宏观核心，财长对赤字与AI监管的表态涉及重大政策预期；建议关注美债波动及后续中美高层会晤进展。
THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS THE HIGHEST SINCE 2007, ONE OF TIME FOR THE TREASURY SECRETARY TO BE FACING QUESTIONS FROM LAWMAKERS, IT DID SAY THE BUYBACK OPERATIONS WERE SUCCESSFUL AND ONCE AGAIN PROMISED THAT CONSOLIDATION IS COMING EVEN AS HE SUGGESTS THE $5,000 TRUMP DIVIDEND CHECKS THE PRESIDENT WANTS TO GIVE OUT ARE A GOOD IDEA AND COULD BE DONE WITHOUT AFFECTING THE DEFICIT. WE WILL GET INTO ALL OF THIS WITH BLOOMBERG'S MICHAEL MCKEE IN JUST A MINUTE.
10年期美国国债收益率创下2007年以来的最高水平。在财政部长面临议员质询之际，他仍表示回购操作取得成功，并再次承诺紧缩措施即将到来，尽管他暗示特朗普希望发放的5000美元支票是一个好主意，且可以在不影响赤字的情况下实施。稍后我们将与彭博社的迈克尔·麦基深入探讨所有这些话题。
WE HAVE AN IMPORTANT CONVERSATION TAKING PLACE BETWEEN JOE MATHIEU AND THE FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN LIVES IN NEW YORK. THEY WILL BE JOINING US SHORTLY. WE WANT TO BEGIN WITH MR. BESSENT'S REMARKS BEFORE THE COMMITTEE TODAY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE BOND MARKET WHICH OF COURSE IS CONTINUING TO SEE A SELLOFF. BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS POLICY CORRESPONDENT IS JOINING US NOW. LET'S FIRST BEGIN WITH THE FACT THAT WE HAVE A 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NOW AT 5%.
乔·马蒂厄与前国务卿安东尼·布林肯正在进行一场重要对话，布林肯现居纽约。他们即将加入我们的节目。我们首先从贝森特先生今天向委员会发表的言论入手，以及这对债券市场意味着什么——当然，债券市场持续出现抛售。彭博经济政策记者现在与我们连线。让我们先从一个事实开始：目前10年期美国国债收益率已达到5%。
WE HAVEN'T SEEN THIS IN NEARLY TWO DECADES. HE IS ARGUING HIS MOVES HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL, IS THAT TRUE?
我们近二十年来从未见过这种情况。他辩称自己的举措是成功的，这是真的吗？
I DON'T THINK YOU COULD SAY IT IS TRUE. WE ARGUMENT -- HIS ARGUMENT IS WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WE COULD HAVE DONE IF I HAD DONE THAT. THE RATES WOULD BE EVEN HIGHER OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. NOBODY IN THE BOND MARKET THINKS IT WAS SUCCESSFUL. THAT WAS JUST SORT OF A PASSING COMMENT HE MADE. I THINK IF YOU ARE LISTENING TO THIS YOU HEARD A LOT OF ANTAGONISTIC QUESTIONS AND A LOT OF SOFTBALL QUESTIONS DEPENDING ON THE POLITICAL PARTY ASKING.
我认为不能说这是真的。他的论点是——如果我们没做那些事，结果会怎样，我们无从知晓。利率可能会更高，诸如此类。债券市场里没有人认为这是成功的。那只是他随口一说。我想如果你正在收听，你会听到很多对抗性的问题，也有很多软性问题，这取决于提问者的党派立场。
YOU DIDN'T HEAR THE TREASURY SECRETARY SAYING A WHOLE LOT IN TERMS OF NEWS.
你并没有听到财政部长在新闻方面透露太多内容。
THAT IS OFTEN HOW THESE THINGS GO. IT IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO CUT SOME OF THESE THINGS. ON THE MOVES WE HAVE SEEN IN THE BOND MARKET HE ONCE AGAIN REITERATED A FISCAL CONSOLIDATION PLAN IS COMING. HOW WOULD THAT TRACK WITH THE SUGGESTION THAT SENDING $5,000 CHECKS TO AMERICANS ARE A GOOD IDEA THAT WON'T AFFECT THE DEFICIT, IS THAT FISCAL CONSOLIDATION? MICHAEL: SECRETARY BESSENT WAS ASKED A NUMBER OF TIMES AND HE SAYS THERE IS A NUMBER OF WAYS TO DO IT WITHOUT THE DEFICIT AND HE ALSO KEPT ADDING BUT I WILL NOT TELL YOU WHAT THEY ARE.
事情往往就是这样发展的。这是一个削减某些开支的机会。关于我们在债券市场上看到的动向，他再次重申了财政紧缩计划即将到来。这与建议向美国人发放5000美元支票是个好主意且不会影响赤字的说法如何协调？这算是财政紧缩吗？迈克尔：贝森特部长被多次问及此事，他表示有多种方法可以在不增加赤字的情况下做到这一点，但他也反复补充说，他不会告诉你们具体是什么方法。
IT WAS KIND OF ODD BECAUSE AS FAR AS ANYBODY KNOWS IT'S THE FIRST TIME WE HEARD OF THIS PLAN WAS THE PRESIDENT'S COMMENTS IN DALLAS LAST WEEK. THE SECRETARY SAID WE HAVE BEEN WORKING ON THIS FOR SOME TIME AND WE HAVE A LOT OF GOOD IDEAS. THE FISCAL CONSOLIDATION THING IS SOMETHING HE SAID BEFORE IN RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS ABOUT RISING BOND YIELDS. THE MARKETS ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE DEFICIT. HE ALSO HAS OFFERED NO PLAN AND HASN'T SAID WHEN HE WOULD HAVE A PLAN WE ARE WEEKS AWAY FROM THE END OF THE FISCAL YEAR.
这有点奇怪，因为据我们所知，我们第一次听说这个计划是总统上周在达拉斯的评论。财政部长表示，我们已经为此工作了一段时间，并且有很多好主意。财政整顿是他之前针对关于债券收益率上升的问题所提到的内容。市场担心赤字问题。他还未提供具体计划，也没有说明何时会有计划出台。我们距离财政年度结束仅剩几周时间。
I WOULD POINT OUT WE JUST GOT THE RESULTS OF A $13 MILLION 20 YEAR OPTION. IT WAS A LITTLE BIT OF A TALE DRAWING 5.42% COMPARED TO THE 5.4% WHEN ISSUED YIELD. WE HAVE TO KEEP THAT IN MIND. THAT IS SENDING YIELDS BACK IN THE UPPER DIRECTION. I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE OTHER NEWS WE GOT AS WELL AS IT PERTAINS TO CHINA. HE PLANS TO MEET WITH HIS CHINESE COUNTERPART THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF XI JINPING'S VISIT NEXT WEEK. WALK US THROUGH THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THAT.
我要指出的是，我们刚刚收到了一份价值1300万美元、期限为20年的期权结果。它有点像塔勒·德劳（Tale Drawing）5.42%，与发行时的收益率5.4%相比略有不同。我们必须牢记这一点。这将导致收益率向更高方向反弹。我还想谈谈其他新闻，特别是涉及中国的部分。他计划在本周末与中国 counterparts 会面，为下周习近平主席的访问做准备。请为我们分析一下这次会面的重要意义。
MICHAEL: IS SOMETHING THAT YOU WOULD EXPECT. NORMALLY THE CABINET MEMBERS FROM THE STATE DEPARTMENT AND THE TREASURY AND PERHAPS THE TRADE REPRESENTATIVE WOULD MEET WITH THEIR COUNTERPARTS AHEAD OF TIME. WHEN HEADS OF STATE MEET THE AGENDA IS PRETTY MUCH PLANNED. THEY KNOW IN ADVANCE WHERE THEY ARE GOING WITH THIS. IT'S A CHANCE FOR THE LEADERS TO TALK. IT IS RARE THAT YOU WOULD EVER HAVE A INITIATIVE COME UP IN THE MEETINGS AND THEN BE WORKED ON.
迈克尔：这是你会预料到的事情。通常情况下，国务院和财政部以及可能还有贸易代表的内阁成员会在事先与他们的 counterparts 会面。当国家元首会晤时，议程几乎已经规划好了。他们提前知道自己在这方面的目标是什么。这是一个让领导人进行对话的机会。罕见的是，在会议中提出倡议并随后加以推进的情况。
THEY WILL HAVE TALKED THROUGH A LOT OF WHAT THEY WILL BE WORKING ON. THEY HAVE A LOT THEY WANT TO TALK TO CHINA ABOUT. SECRETARY BESSENT, IT COVERS A LOT OF AREAS. I'M SURE THEY WILL BE TALKING ABOUT THE TRADE SANCTIONS THE PRESIDENT WANTS TO PUT ON, AND THE CONCERNS THE U.S. AND OTHERS HAVE ABOUT OVERPRODUCTION IN CHINA AND HOW IT'S FLOODING THE WORLD WITH GOODS. I'M SURE THEY WILL BE GETTING INTO SOME OF THE AI QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT KIND OF SAFEGUARDS COULD BE PUT IN PLACE.
他们将讨论许多即将开展的工作内容。他们有很多想要与中国讨论的话题。贝森特（Bessent）部长，这涵盖了多个领域。我确信他们会谈论总统希望实施的贸易制裁，以及美国和其他国家对中国的过度生产及其向世界倾销商品的担忧。我相信他们也会探讨一些有关人工智能的问题，比如可以实施哪些保障措施。
IT IS A LITTLE HARDER WHEN THE PRESIDENT SAYS THERE'S NO WORRY. I SUSPECT SECRETARY BESSENT IS LISTENING TO SOME OF THOSE PEOPLE WHO SAY YES, WE SHOULD WORRY, WE SHOULD HAVE A GLOBAL REGIME TO TRY TO PREVENT AI FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
当总统说“没什么可担心的”时，情况就稍微复杂一些了。我怀疑贝森特部长正在倾听那些认为“是的，我们应该担心”的人的意见，这些人主张应建立全球机制以防止人工智能失控。
THE TREASURY SECRETARY WAS ASKED ABOUT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. MICHAEL MCKEE, BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE GLOBAL QUESTION OF HOW TO REGULATE IS ABOUT TO COME UP IN CONVERSATION AS I HAND THINGS OVER TO MY COLLEAGUE, JOE MATHIEU, WHO IS LIVE IN NEW YORK WITH THE FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE, ANTONY BLINKEN. JOE: WE MEET AT A PRECARIOUS TIME TODAY. THE WAR WITH IRAN IS STRETCHING ON. OIL PRICES ARE AT THE HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME, CERTAINLY SINCE THE OPENING OF THIS ADMINISTRATION.
财政部长被问及人工智能问题。迈克尔·麦基，彭博社经济学家，关于人工智能以及全球如何监管的问题即将在对话中浮现，现在我将话筒交给我的同事乔·马修，他正在纽约与前国务卿安东尼·布林肯进行现场连线。乔：我们今天相聚在一个脆弱的时刻。与伊朗的战争仍在持续。油价处于我们一段时间以来所见的高位， certainly 自本届政府上任以来。
INTEREST RATES ARE AT THE HIGHEST IN YEARS. IT IS THE BACKDROP OF AN EMERGING TECHNOLOGY THAT SOME BELIEVE COULD BRING THE END OF HUMANITY. IT'S JUST ANOTHER TUESDAY. I WOULD LIKE TO START HERE WITH YOU IN THE AI DEBATE HERE RIGHT NOW. IT'S TIME TO SLOW DOWN. THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES SAYS WE HAVE ENOUGH TO WIN. IS THE PRESIDENT RIGHT OR THE CEOS? MR. BLINKEN: HERE'S THE REALITY, THE STATEMENT WE HEARD THE OTHER DAY FROM SAM ALTMAN, ELON MUSK, SAYING WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING, THAT SHOULD BE A FLASHING RED LIGHT.
利率处于多年来的高位。这是新兴技术的背景，一些人认为这项技术可能带来人类的终结。这不过是又一个星期二。我想从这里开始和你探讨目前的人工智能辩论。是时候慢下来了。美国总统说我们已经拥有足够的优势去赢得胜利。总统是对的还是首席执行官们是对的？布林肯先生：现实情况是，前几天我们听到的山姆·阿尔特曼、埃隆·马斯克等人的声明——我们必须采取行动——这应该是一个红色的警示灯。
THIS IS LIKE THE WIZARDS TELLING YOU SOMETHING IS WRONG IN OZ. THE REALITY IS THIS, THIS TECHNOLOGY IS MOVING AT A SPEED THAT WE CAN'T EVEN BEGIN TO WRAP OUR ARMS AROUND LET ALONE GET AHEAD OF. WE ARE SEEING A DOUBLING IN CAPACITY ON THE FRONTIER PLATFORMS EVERY SEVERAL MONTHS. MOORE'S LAW IS OUT THE WINDOW. THE NECESSITY OF DOING SOMETHING IS INCREASINGLY EVIDENT TO PRETTY MUCH EVERYONE. WE REGULATE THE AIRPLANES FLYING IN THE SKIES.
这就像巫师告诉你奥兹国出了什么问题一样。现实情况是，这项技术的发展速度之快，我们甚至无法完全理解，更不用说领先于它了。前沿平台的算力每几个月就会翻倍。摩尔定律已经失效。采取行动的必要性对几乎每个人来说都日益明显。我们监管天空中飞行的飞机。
WE REGULATE THE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT'S. WE REGULATE THE STUFF WE PUT INTO THEIR BODIES. AI HAS THE POTENTIAL BOTH FOR INCREDIBLE GOOD BUT ALSO FOR TERRIBLE CONSEQUENCES IF IT'S NOT PROPERLY GUARD RAIL. I'M CONVINCED WE COULD DO THIS IN A WAY THAT DOESN'T SET BACK OUR INNOVATION, DOESN'T SET US BACK IN THE RACE WITH CHINA. BY THE WAY IT'S VERY GOOD THE TREASURY SECRETARY IS MEETING WITH THE CHINESE COUNTERPART. I SUSPECT THIS WILL BE FRONT AND CENTER.
我们监管核电站。我们监管注入他们身体的物质。人工智能既有可能带来巨大的好处，也可能产生可怕的后果，如果缺乏适当的护栏。我坚信我们可以以一种不会阻碍创新、不会让我们在与中国竞赛中落后的方式做到这一点。顺便说一句，财政部长与中国同行会面是非常好的事情。我怀疑这将成为焦点。
YOU THINK CHINA WANTS NAI RUNNING AMOK EITHER IN THE HANDS OF PEOPLE IT DOESN'T CONTROL OR IN ITS OWN HANDS? THERE IS A WAY TO BRING US TOGETHER.
你认为中国希望不受其控制的人手中或在其自己手中出现失控的AI吗？有一种方法可以将我们团结在一起。
SHOULD THERE BE NAI SAFETY FRAMEWORK? MR. BLINKEN: I DON'T THINK THAT GIVES THE WIND TO CHINA, THERE IS A SHARED INTEREST FOR ALL OF THE PROFOUND MUTUAL SUSPICIONS, CHINA WILL BE SUSPICIOUS OF US JUST AS WE ARE RIGHTLY SUSPICIOUS OF THEM. WE KNOW FROM DECADES OF ARMS-CONTROL, THESE KINDS OF THINGS ARE POSSIBLE. I DON'T WANT TO MINIMIZE THE DIFFICULTY. IT IS THE GOVERNING PRINCIPLES, IT IS TRUST, IT IS SAFETY, IT IS SECURITY.
是否应该建立人工智能安全框架？布林肯先生：我认为这并不会给中国带来优势，因为所有各方都存在着深刻的相互猜疑。中国会像我们合理地对它保持警惕一样，对我们保持警惕。我们从数十年的军控经验中知道，这类事情是可能的。我不想低估其中的困难。关键在于治理原则、信任、安全和保障。
IT IS GETTING A PARTNERSHIP TO EMBED EXPERTS, PERHAPS LOOK AT EVERY MODEL BEFORE HE GOES OUT. DO IT IN A WAY THAT DOESN'T HOLD BACK INNOVATION. WE NEED TO GET COMPANIES ON BOARD. FINALLY, OUR COMMUNITIES ON BOARD. IF YOU ARE BUILDING A DATA CENTER, WE HAVE TO MAKE SURE ELECTRICITY RATES WILL NOT KILL THE COMMUNITY. THAT JOBS ARE NOT GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION, IF WE DO ALL OF THOSE THINGS WE HAVE A CHANCE TO HARNESS THIS FOR GOOD AND MINIMIZE THE NEGATIVE.
我们需要建立一个伙伴关系，嵌入专家，或许在模型发布前审查每一个模型。以不阻碍创新的方式进行。我们需要让企业参与其中。最后，让我们的社区参与其中。如果你正在建设数据中心，我们必须确保电价不会压垮社区。就业不能走向错误的方向。如果我们做到所有这些，我们就有机会利用这项技术造福人类，并最小化负面影响。
JOE: YOU MENTION SCOTT BESSENT MEETING WITH HIS COUNTERPART FROM CHINA. WHY IS THIS NOT BEING LED BY THE STATE DEPARTMENT? MR. BLINKEN: DIFFERENT ADMINISTRATIONS ENGAGE IN DIFFERENT WAYS. JOE: THIS IS ENTERING STATECRAFT. MR. BLINKEN: BOTH DEPARTMENTS HAVE A CRITICAL ROLE TO PLAY. WE WERE DOING THIS DURING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, THEY WORKED INTENSELY WITH THE FRONTIER PLATFORMS. THEY GOT VOLUNTARY COMMITMENTS ON SECURITY, ON SAFETY, ON TRUST.
乔：你提到斯科特·贝森特与中国 counterparts 会面。为什么这不是由国务院主导的？布林肯先生：不同的政府采取不同的参与方式。乔：这已进入外交艺术领域。布林肯先生：两个部门都发挥着关键作用。我们在拜登政府期间就在做这件事，他们与前沿平台紧密合作。他们在安全、信任和保障方面获得了自愿承诺。
WE WERE WORKING HAND-IN-HAND WITH THE TREASURY AND WITH THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT WENT AROUND THE WORLD AND TRIED TO BUILD SUPPORT. WE GOT THE G7 ON BOARD. THE FIRST EVER RESOLUTION, THAT IS THE DIRECTION WE WERE TRACKING IT. YOU GOT PRESIDENT XI TO SAY ONLY HUMANS AGREE ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS. MR. BLINKEN: IT WAS A REAL AGRE
我们与财政部和商务部携手合作，走遍全球，试图建立支持。我们让七国集团（G7）参与其中。这是前所未有的决议，这正是我们追踪的方向。你让习近平主席表示只有人类才同意关于核武器的规定。布林肯先生：这是一个真正的共识
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