Bloomberg：油价与美债收益率飙升，美股在宏观压力下维持韧性
Bloomberg Surveillance 9/15/2026
直击当前宏观核心矛盾：高油价、高收益率与美股韧性的背离。提供了具体的数据锚点（油价+80%、收益率破5%、加息概率>90%）及机构观点，有助于判断短期流动性拐点与资产相关性变化。
YOU HAVE A LOT WEIGHING ON THIS MARKET RIGHT NOW.
目前市场上有很多压力。
IT IS POSSIBLE THE STOCK MARKET SEEMS TO WHISTLE PAST THE GRAVEYARD BECAUSE IT IS DOMINATED BY THOSE TECH NAMES.
股市看似在自欺欺人，因为它被那些科技巨头所主导。
THE SOURCE OF GROWTH IS A HIGH INVESTMENT BOOM.
增长的来源是一场高投资热潮。
IT SHOWS THEY ARE MOREOVER CAPITALIZED.
这表明它们 furthermore 获得了资本化。
THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ, AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. JONATHAN: LIVE FROM NEW YORK CITY THIS MORNING, GOOD MORNING. FOR AUDIENCE WORLDWIDE, BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE STARTS RIGHT NOW. COMING TO TUESDAY, 10 YEAR BOND YIELDS CLIMBING TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2007 AS ESCALATION ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST IS KEEPING IT ABOUT 100. THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND KEVIN WARSH BEGAN THEIR TWO DAY MEETING WITH THE PRESSURE STILL LOOMING.
这是由乔纳森·费罗、丽莎·阿布拉莫维奇和安玛丽·霍登带来的彭博监控节目。乔纳森：早上好，来自纽约市。对于全球观众，彭博监控现在开始。周二，10年期国债收益率攀升至2007年以来的最高水平，因为中东局势升级使其保持在约100的水平。美联储和凯文·沃什开始了为期两天的会议，压力依然迫在眉睫。
LISA: IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT RATE HIKING EXPECTATIONS ARE, IF YOU LOOK AT THE RHETORIC COMING FROM ECONOMISTS IT ANOTHER STORY. A NUMBER OF THEM ARE SAYING DON'T HIKE EVEN THOUGH THE MARKET IS PRESSURING YOU TO DO SO. THEY ARE SAYING WE SEE A COST DOWN THE ROAD OF THE HIKING TURNS OUT TO BE UNNEEDED. WE HAVE ANALYTICS SAYING THE ODDS OF A SERIOUS FED POLICY MISTAKE ARE HIGH. A QUESTION ABOUT LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS FOR GROWTH STARTING TO FADE AT THE SAME TIME EXPECTATIONS ARE GOING BACK UP.
丽莎：如果你看看加息预期的情况，如果你听听经济学家们的言论，那就是另一回事了。许多人都说不要加息，尽管市场正施压让你这么做。他们说，我们看到如果加息最终被证明是不必要的，未来会有成本。我们有分析指出，美联储政策犯严重错误的几率很高。长期增长预期开始消退，与此同时，其他预期却在回升。
ANNMARIE: POTENTIALLY A LEVER THAT WILL HELP THE BOND MARKET IS OIL BUT NOTHING IS WORKING NOW WHEN IT COMES TO THE ENERGY MARKET. YESTERDAY WE HAD THIS DISCUSSION WITH THE ENERGY, WHO SAID HE HAD INFORMATION WHERE IT COMES TO THE REOPENING OF THE EAST-WEST PIPELINE. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS SAYS THREE TO FIVE WEEKS. THIS IS GETTING TO THE PRESIDENT. HE TALKED ABOUT HOW UKRAINE HAS AGREED NOT TO ATTACK RUSSIA, RUSSIAN REFINERIES, AND VICE VERSA BUT THIS MORNING UKRAINE ATTACKED A RUSSIAN REFINERY.
安玛丽：可能有助于债券市场的杠杆是石油，但在能源市场方面，目前没有任何事情在起作用。昨天我们与能源部长进行了讨论，他表示有关于东西管道重新开放的信息。美联社称需要三到五周时间。这已经上报给了总统。他谈到乌克兰已同意不攻击俄罗斯及俄罗斯炼油厂，反之亦然，但今天早上乌克兰袭击了一座俄罗斯炼油厂。
JONATHAN: IT LOOKS CHALLENGING FOR THE EQUITY MARKET THIS MORNING AND THEN YOU LOOK AT YOUR TO DATE. SO FAR THIS YEAR, CRUDE IS HIGHER BY 80%. 10 YEAR BOND YIELDS ARE UP BY 85 BASIS POINTS AND YET STILL THE S&P 500 IS HIGHER BY DOUBLE DIGITS. YOU HAVE HAD ENERGY SHOCK, RATE SHOCK. SO FAR, YOU HAVE NOT HAD A GROWTH SCARE. LISA: THIS IS WHAT HAS UPHELD THE MARKET YEAR TO DATE. THIS IS WHY SO MANY REMAIN POSITIVE ON EQUITIES EVEN IF THEY DO EXPECT A 5% TO 10% CORRECTION IN THE NEAR TERM.
乔纳森：今天早上股市看起来充满挑战，然后你看看年初至今的数据。今年以来，原油价格上涨了80%，10年期国债收益率上涨了85个基点，然而标普500指数仍然上涨两位数。你经历了能源冲击、利率冲击。到目前为止，你还没有经历增长恐慌。丽莎：这就是支撑今年年初至今市场的原因。这就是为什么许多人即使预计短期内股市会回调5%到10%，仍然对股票持乐观态度。
A REAL QUESTION HERE ABOUT WHETHER WE ARE COMING UP AGAINST HOW MUCH THOSE BIG EARNINGS PICTURES PUSHBACK AGAINST OTHER HEADWINDS ESPECIALLY GIVEN EARNINGS SEASON IS OVER. WE WILL NOT GET EARNINGS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER COUPLE WEEKS SO THAT YOU FOR EXTREME FROM CORPORATE AMERICA CANNOT REALLY RESCUE THE MACRO. JONATHAN: LET'S BUILD ON THAT. YOU HAVE HAD A HUGE EARNINGS GROWTH'S AND THAT HAS FUELED BOY AND RISK APPETITE. BOND YIELDS ARE NOT DRIVING THOSE THINGS.
这里有一个真正的问题，关于我们是否正在遭遇那些大幅盈利预期所引发的反弹，尤其是在其他逆风因素面前，特别是鉴于财报季已经结束。我们又要再过几周才能看到下一批财报，因此来自美国企业的极端乐观情绪无法真正拯救宏观经济。乔纳森：让我们在此基础上进一步探讨。你们已经经历了巨大的盈利增长，这推动了买入和风险偏好。债券收益率并没有驱动这些因素。
THOSE THINGS ARE DRIVING BOND YIELDS. THAT COULD CHANGE AND A CORRELATION BETWEEN YIELDS AND OIL IS THE TOXIC BREW YOU MIGHT POINT TO THAT COULD GROUND EQUITIES FOR THE NEXT MONTH OR SO. THAT IS THE ISSUE. THE WORLD IS BECOMING MORE OF A DRIVER OF PRICE ACTION PARTICULARLY IN THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS.
是这些因素在驱动债券收益率。这种情况可能会改变，而收益率与油价之间的相关性就是你可能指出的那种有毒混合物，它可能会让股市在未来一个月左右陷入停滞。这就是问题所在。世界正越来越多地成为价格行为的驱动力，特别是在过去几周。
OUR TEAM SAID THE 40 DAY CORRELATION TO CRUDE, YIELDS IN PARTICULAR, IS THE HIGHEST GOING BACK TO 2023 SO VERY MUCH TO YOUR POINT IS OIL PRICES DRIVING THE LEVEL OF YIELDS AND ECONOMISTS ARE SAYING THIS SHOULD NOT BE THE REASON TO START A RATE HIKING CYCLE AS THE MARKET PRICES MORE THAN 90% CHANCE OF FED RATE HIKE TOMORROW. THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THIS IS ONE AND DONE OR A RATE HIKING CYCLE COULD TORPEDO LONG-TERM EARNINGS AND GROWTH EXPECTATION GIVEN IT IS STEMMING FROM OIL PRICES.
我们的团队指出，原油（尤其是收益率）的40天相关性是自2023年以来最高的，所以非常同意你的观点，即油价正在驱动收益率的水平。经济学家表示，这不应该是开启加息周期的理由，但市场目前定价美联储明天加息的概率超过90%。问题是，这究竟是“一次性”加息还是加息周期，考虑到这源于油价，可能会破坏长期的盈利和增长预期。
ANNMARIE: I IMAGINE THE TREASURY SECRETARY TODAY WILL LEAN ON THIS. IT IS SO CORRELATED WITH OIL AS THE NATION'S TOP BOND SALESMAN IS GOING TO GET A GRILLING TODAY ON CAPITOL HILL. JONATHAN: THIS MORNING, CLOSE TO 2%. COMING UP, THE 10 YEAR BOND YIELDS TOPS 5%. PRESIDENT TRUMP DISMISSES AI RISK AS A HOAX. AND STICKY INFLATION STOKES RATE HIKE BETS. WE BEGIN WITH 5% YIELDS, 100 DOLLAR CRUDE WEIGHING ON STOCKS. BLACK ROCK WRITING, WE REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON A LONG END GOVERNMENT BONDS.
安妮玛丽：我想象财政部长今天会利用这一点。它与油价的相关性如此之高，作为国家的首席债券推销员，他今天将在国会山接受严厉质询。乔纳森：今天早上，接近2%。接下来，10年期国债收益率突破5%。特朗普总统否认AI风险是骗局。粘性通胀推高加息押注。我们从5%的收益率、100美元的原油对股市构成压力开始。贝莱德写道，我们对长期政府债券保持谨慎。
SUPPLY REMAINS A CHALLENGE. GOOD TO SEE YOU. 5% ON TENS. WHY AREN'T YOU A BUYER?
供应仍然是一个挑战。很高兴见到你。10年期收益率达到5%。你为什么不是买家？
I THINK THE REALITY IS WE ARE GOING TO FIX IN ON 5%. IT IS A ROUND NUMBER BUT THE REALITY IS WHAT IS DISLOCATING THE STOCK MARKET NOW IS LESS ABOUT THE 5% AND MORE ABOUT THE RAPIDITY OF GAINS AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT HOW THE MARKET AND YIELDS RESPOND, WHAT YOU FIND IS THERE'S NOT A LOT OF CORRELATION BETWEEN THE LEVEL IN THE MARKET WHERE YOU DO GET CORRELATION, OR YOU GET THESE BIG MOVES OFF OF AVERAGE, WHICH HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN RECENT WEEKS OR MONTHS SO A QUESTION IS THE SHORT END OF THE CURVE IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE ATTRACTIVE.
我认为现实是我们将会聚焦于5%。这是一个整数，但现实是，现在导致股市脱节的原因与其说是5%本身，不如说是涨幅的速度。当你观察市场和收益率如何反应时，你会发现，在市场水平与收益率之间并没有太多的相关性；或者你会看到这些偏离平均值的巨大波动，这在最近几周或几个月一直在发生。因此，一个问题是，曲线短端开始看起来更具吸引力。
I THINK YOU TAKE MORE RISK THERE. I WOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS OF THE LONG END NOT BECAUSE INFLATION IS GETTING AWAY FROM THE FED BUT BECAUSE YOU HAVE A LOT OF SUPPLY AND YOU CAN KEEP THAT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE IN THE COMING WEEKS. JONATHAN: HOW DO YOU FINANCE THE ALLOCATION OF THE FRONT END OF THE CURVE?
我认为你在那方面承担了更多风险。我仍然会对长端保持谨慎，不是因为通胀正在脱离美联储的控制，而是因为你面临大量的供应，并且可以在未来几周让该市场承受压力。乔纳森：你如何为曲线前端的配置融资？
WE HAVE MODERATE EQUITY. WE HAVE PULLED THAT IN OTHER A COUPLE REASONS. YOU HAVE ENUMERATED ALL OF THEM. YOU HAVE A RAPID BACKUP IN YIELDS. YOU HAVE A RAPID BACKUP IN ENERGY. THIS HAPPENS WHEN SEASONS ARE DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE AND THAT CAN BE EVEN MORE TRUE IN YEARS WE HAVE A MIDTERM ELECTION. ON TOP OF THAT YOU GET THE RECENT CONCERNS ABOUT AI. LONG-TERM, THIS IS A PLACE TO BRING LEVERAGE TO BUT IN ADDITION TO RECENT NOTES ABOUT AI SAFETY THEIR ONGOING CONCERNS ABOUT AI PROFITABILITY AND CAP EXPEND, WHICH MEANS VOLATILITY IS HIGHER THIS FALL AND THAT IS SOMETHING TO BE COGNIZANT OF.
我们持有适度的股票仓位。我们缩减了这部分仓位，原因有几个。你已经列举了所有原因。收益率快速回升。能源价格快速回升。当季节因素构成挑战时就会发生这种情况，而在中期选举年，这种情况可能更为真实。除此之外，你还得关注最近关于人工智能的担忧。从长期来看，这是一个加杠杆的地方，但除了最近关于人工智能安全的评论外，人们对人工智能盈利能力和资本支出的持续担忧意味着今年秋天的波动性更高，这是需要意识到的。
LISA: THE STOCK ALLOCATION AND GOING MORE OVERWEIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE YIELD CURVE -- IS IT PARTICULAR IN THE TECH SPACE FOR THE EQUITY REDUCTION OR BROADER BASED THAN THAT? RUSS: WE HAVE PULLED BACK A LITTLE BIT ON SOME OF THE AI AND I THINK THAT IS MORE TACTICAL THAN STRATEGIC LONG-TERM. THIS IS WHERE YOU HAVE A LOT OF EARNINGS GROWTH. THIS STILL WORKS IN A PORTFOLIO BUT ONE OF THE THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND IS MANY OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL PARTS OF THE AI TRADE COMMIT MEMORIES QUOTE FOR THINK THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONG, THOSE ARE THE PARTS OF THE MARKET THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST VOLATILITY SO PART OF WHAT YOU'RE TRYING TO DO NOW IS PULL BACK RISK AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.
丽莎：股票配置以及更超配收益率曲线前端——对于减少股票仓位而言，是特别针对科技领域，还是基于更广泛的基础？Russ：我们在一些人形智能（AI）方面稍微撤回了仓位，我认为这更多是战术性的而非战略性的长期决策。这里有很多盈利增长。这在投资组合中仍然有效，但有一件事要记住，许多在人工智能交易中取得最成功部分的公司，其基本面强劲，这些是市场中波动性最高的部分，所以你现在试图做的部分事情是至少暂时降低风险。
YOU WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THOSE NAMES BECAUSE THAT IS A LOT OF WHERE YOUR PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY IS COMING FROM. LISA: DO THINK OF THE FED WERE TO HIKE RATES TOMORROW AND INDICATE THEY HAVE MOURNED ON THE PIPELINE OR COULD BE OPEN TO THAT POSSIBILITY THAT COULD CURTAIL SOME OF THE VOLATILITY WE ARE SEEING AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS IN A NUMBER OF MONTHS AND SOME OF THE PACE OF THE INCREASE OF YIELDS THAT WE HAVE SEEN? RUSS: IT COULD HAVE AN EFFECT.
你必须审视那些个股，因为那是你组合波动性的主要来源。丽莎：你认为如果美联储明天加息并表明他们已经对管道中的情况进行了哀悼（注：此处原文疑似语音识别错误，语境可能指‘评估’或‘处理’），或者对此可能性持开放态度，这是否会限制我们在过去几个月最高水平上看到的某些波动性以及我们看到的一些收益率上升的速度？Russ：这可能会产生影响。
THERE WAS CONCERN BACK IN THE SUMMER IN AUGUST ABOUT THE FED REACTION FUNCTION. A LOT OF THAT HAS BEEN CLARIFIED SINCE, CERTAINLY THE MARKET BELIEVES THERE WILL BE A SHORT CYCLE THAT WILL SEND IT BACK TO THE LONG END OF THE CURVE BUT AS TO WHY WE ARE NOT BACKING UP THE TRUCK TO BUY LONG-TERM BONDS, A LOT OF WHAT IS HAPPENED IS NOT JUST ABOUT OIL, THOUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN YOUR TERM DRIVER. IT IS ALSO ABOUT SUPPLY, WHETHER THAT SUPPLIES COMING FROM GOVERNMENT, THE CORPORATE SIDE.
去年夏天八月的时候，人们曾担心美联储的反应函数。自那以后，很多情况已经澄清，当然市场相信会有一个短期周期将其推回曲线的长端。但至于为什么我们没有掉头去买长期债券，发生的事情不仅仅是关于石油，尽管石油一直是你的期限驱动因素之一。这也关乎供应，无论是来自政府还是企业方面的供应。
THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL KEEP PRESSURE ON THE LONG END OF THE CURVE. ANNMARIE: HOW ARE WE STARTING TO THINK ABOUT THE MIDTERM ELECTION AND ITS IMPACT ON THE AI TRADE AND THE FACT THAT THIS BANK OF AMERICA SURVEY SAYS DEMOCRATIC SWEEP ODDS ARE RISING IN THE MOST LIKELY REACTION TO THAT IS YIELDS UP AND STOCKS DOWN? DO YOU AGREE? RUSS: I'M NOT SURE ABOUT THAT. WE SEE A LOT OF STUDIES ABOUT THE EFFECT OF THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS.
这将给收益率曲线长端带来压力。安玛丽：我们开始如何看待中期选举及其对人工智能交易的影响？以及美银调查显示民主党全面获胜的概率正在上升，对此最可能的反应是收益率上升、股市下跌？你同意吗？罗斯：我不确定这一点。我们看到很多关于中期选举影响的研究。
IT IS HARD TO TEASE OUT LONG-TERM EFFECTS ABOUT HOW THE MARKET DOES UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. YOU CAN FIND SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE MARKET DOES WELL UNDER DIVIDED GOVERNMENT BUT THAT IS MORE ABOUT UNCERTAINTY. THIS IS HAPPENING AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF OTHER THINGS, WHETHER OIL, RATES, CONCERNS ABOUT AI AND I THINK THE SEASONS ARE COMING INTO PLAY. ONCE YOU GET PAST THE MIDTERMS, THERE IS RELIEF IN MARKETS SO I BELIEVE THE VOLATILITY WE ARE SEEING, SOME OF THAT IS TEMPORARY AND IT EASES A BIT
很难剥离出在不同情景下市场表现的长期效应。你可以找到一些证据表明，在分裂政府的情况下市场表现良好，但这更多是关于不确定性。这是在石油、利率、对人工智能的担忧等其他因素的背景之下发生的，而且我认为季节性因素也开始起作用。一旦度过中期选举，市场会感到如释重负，因此我相信我们看到的波动性中，部分是暂时的，并且会有所缓解。
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
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